Market Alert. China NPK Statistical Update October 2016 Statistics. China MOP Imports. China Exports. China Imports

Transcription

1 Market Alert China NPK Statistical Update October Statistics China showed signs of life in October on both the import and export front, though overseas shipments of key fertilizer products continued to trail last year. That said, we have seen some improvement in export prices for both phosphate and nitrogen products in November, and Chinese potash benchmarks have also recently trended higher. While the domestic market is seeing some gradual demand improvements, winter fill has yet to start in earnest. DAP/MAP/TSP exports jumped unseasonably in October to the highest level in more than a year, driven by shipments to India, Brazil, and Pakistan. The spike made up a little ground on the year, but volumes through 10 months of 7.2 million tonnes are still down 2.2 million (23%) from (versus down 2 as of Sep) due to unfavorable producer economics that have prevailed in. More recently, Chinese production costs have been reduced as the RMB depreciates, though offsetting this are rising ammonia and freight costs. Export volumes are expected to remain subdued for the remainder of the year, though fob prices have rebounded in the past week and could give a small lift to export prospects in December. Urea exports went the other direction in October, in fact hitting the lowest level in more than three years. shipments offshore are now down 2.7 million tonnes (26%) compared to last year. The Chinese nitrogen industry reportedly continues to suffer significant financial losses on low urea output (operating rates estimated near 50%) and rising costs due to higher coal and natural gas prices. October MOP imports were the highest since April on a surge in Israeli product, but arrivals approaching 5.0 million tonnes are down 2.1 million (30%) y-o-y on delayed contracts and thinning channel stocks. Sentiment is improving, however. Industry publications note that port and border prices have been rising, and our China team is seeing more movement away from ports as some distributors begin to take early positions for spring season. 1.8 China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Olympic Average Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DAP 5,006 6,391-22% 3,244 54% MAP 1,609 2, % TSP % % DAP/M AP/TSP 7,186 9,362-23% 4,973 4 MOP % Urea 7,793 10,485-26% 5,297 4 Oct '16 Vessel 445 3,855 6,038-36% Rail 174 1,095 1,017 8% Total 620 4,950 7,055-30% China Exports Olympic Average China Imports MOP 4,950 7,055-30% 5,412 - Sulphur 10,112 9,453 9,049 12% NPK 1,009 1,289-22% 1,055-4% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP CHINA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 12/1/ 1

2 Export Charts China Exports Current Month Oct '16 Oct '15 DAP % MAP % TSP % DAP/M AP/TSP 1, % China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports by Destination -Oct MOP % 18 Urea DAP 5,006 6,391-22% 3,244 54% MAP 1,609 2, % TSP % % DAP/M AP/TSP 7,186 9,362-23% 4,973 4 MOP % Urea 7,793 10,485-26% 5,297 4 Australia Thailand 36% India 33% Brazil 10% Vietnam China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 1 Source: Fertecon, China Customs, Mosaic 1 1 China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 1.8 THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP CHINA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 12/1/ 2

3 Export Charts Olympic Average Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1, Mosaic 1 by Destination -Oct % India 24% Mexico United States Indonesia Korea, South THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP CHINA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 12/1/ 3

4 Import Charts NPK Sulphur 10,112 9,453 9,049 12% NPK 1,009 1,289-22% 1,055-4% China Imports Current Month Oct '16 Oct '15 MOP % Sulphur % MOP 4,950 7,055-30% 5,412 - by Origin -Oct Canada 21% Belarus 1 Russia 40% Israel 11% Jordan 6% , Mosaic THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP CHINA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 12/1/ 4

5 Import Charts 1000 Tonnes China NPK Imports Olympic Average Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Olympic Average China Sulphur Imports Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec China NPK Imports by Origin -Oct China Sulphur Imports by Origin -Oct Norway 31% Belgium- Luxembourg 1 Finland Russia 32% Romania 6% 36% Iran 8% Japan Saudi Arabia 21% United Arab Emirates 1 Korea, South 11% China NPK Imports 3.0, Mosaic China Sulphur Imports 1, Mosaic 1 1 THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP CHINA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 12/1/ 5