IAB Adex Benchmark 2012 Daniel Knapp, IHS Electronics & Media

Transcription

1 IAB Adex Benchmark 2012 Daniel Knapp, IHS Electronics & Media

2 ABOUT THE STUDY 2

3 3 A meta-analysis of online ad spend in Europe GROSS NET RATECARD Revenue Billed Revenue Billed No Agency commissions Campaigns x Ratecard

4 4 Horizontal expansion: country coverage 2008:19 countries 2012: 26 countries 2006: 13 countries

5 26 countries in 2012 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Croatia Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Russia Romania Serbia Slovenia Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK 5

6 Vertical expansion: format granularity & context 6

7 BIG PICTURE & CONTEXT 7

8 8 The value of the European online ad market bn

9 2004 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Eurozone volatility casts spell on media economy GDP growth in Europe 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Eurozone GDP Growth y-o-y Italy GDP Growth y-o-y France GDP Growth y-o-y Germany GDP Growth y-o-y 9 Source: IHS

10 industrial production & household consumption are good indictators for advertising market prospects 15% UK advertising revenue growth 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Actual NAR growth (yoy) 10 Projected NAR growth (yoy) Source: IHS Electronics & Media

11 tectonic shifts are characterizing ad markets 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CAGR of Total Media Ad Revenue ( ) Indonesia Argentina China Brazil Russia Mexico UK Germany France Spain Italy 11 Source: IHS Electronics & Media

12 12 but European online ad growth continues at a double-digit rate 30 Total online advertising ( bn) %

13 Indeed, online is more resilient to macro-pressure than other media 30% 25% 2012: economic & advertising growth 26.6% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2.5% 9.5% 9.4% 2.9% 7.2% 3.8% 11.5% 0% -5% -10% WE CEE Total -1.7% -4.0% -5.2% GDP Total excl. Online Online Total -0.4% 13 Source: IAB Europe & IHS Electronics & Media

14 Overall ad spend shows volatility, TV is resilient, online shows linear growth trajectory 140 Ad spend per capita by medium Online ad spend per capita TV ad spend per capita Total ad spend per capita 14 Source: IAB Europe & IHS Electronics & Media

15 There is no single factor for print decline & online does not absorb all print revenue, but budgets do migrate Ad spend per capita Online ad spend per capita Print ad spend per capita 15 Source: IAB Europe & IHS Electronics & Media

16 16 In 6 years online more than doubled its share of all media revenue: 1 in 4 ad s go to online in % 25% 20% Online market share of ad budgets: total Europe 19.0% 25.6% 15% 10% 10.3% 5% 0%

17 Online for the first time overtakes print newspaper ad spend & becomes 2 nd biggest media category in Europe 2012: European advertising market share by medium TV 28.1 Online 24.3 Newspapers 19.3 Magazines 8.7 OOH 6.3 Radio 4.6 Cinema Note: Source for non-online ad revenue is IHS. Print ad spend excludes direct mail. 17 Source: IAB Europe & IHS Electronics & Media

18 18 Small number of markets make largest contribution to European ad spend 100% 80% 60% 40% Share of European online ad revenue by market 86.7% 78.3% 69.5% 46.0% 95.5% 20% 0% Top 2 Top5 Top 7 Top 10 Top 15

19 19 Russia climbs up to 4 th largest spender as remaining top 10 maintain their position in the European ranking 7,000 6,000 6,642 Total online ad spend ( m) 5,000 4,551 4,000 3,000 2,770 2,000 1,000 1,536 1,418 1,

20 What is driving growth? Both emerging markets growing from low basis and established markets that demonstrate sustainability of online ad momentum Video Mobile RTB has the potential to be a driver Social networking sites Europeanisation and consolidation of classifieds & directories Localisation & individualisation of search, mobile search 20

21 21 CEE leads growth, but remarkable is the sustainability of growth in mature markets 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Online ad growth 12%

22 Online ad market growth 40% 35% 30% Turkey Russia Note: country bubbles represent market size 25% Bulgaria 20% Serbia 15% 10% Romania 5% Hungary Poland Czech Republic Italy Ireland Austria Finland France Germany Belgium Switzerland Netherlands Sweden UK Denmark 0% Spain Croatia -5% Slovenia Online ad spend per capita ( ) Greece 22-10% Norway

23 Online ad market growth 40% 35% 30% Turkey Russia Note: country bubbles represent market size 25% Bulgaria 20% Serbia 15% 10% Romania 5% Hungary Poland Czech Republic Italy Ireland Austria Finland France Germany Belgium Switzerland Netherlands Sweden UK Denmark 0% Spain Croatia -5% Slovenia Online ad spend per capita ( ) Greece 23-10% Norway

24 FORMATS 24

25 25 Search outperforms, display still high single digit, classifieds & directories pick up pace 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 17.9% 15.5% Year-on-year growth by format 15.3% 14.5% 11.5% 9.1% 5.7% 6.3% Search Display Classifieds & directories Grand total

26 Search remains strongest segment in 2012 Format shares of online 100% 80% 60% 19.6% 18.5% 32.7% 32.4% 40% 20% 47.1% 48.8% 0% Others Classifieds and directories Display Search 26

27 27 Display growth shows few strong outliers above average rate, yet more outliers below average rate 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%

28 28 Online video is now 13% of all online display 25% Online video share of display 20% 15% 13% 10% 5% 0% Italy Spain European average Poland UK Finland Russia Sweden Turkey

29 29 but range of growth varies tremendously 250% Online video growth 200% 150% 100% 50% 50.6% 0% -50%

30 30 and so do absolute video market sizes : size of online video advertising by market

31 31 Mobile revenues are becoming significant, but are still lagging behind consumption 14% 12% 10% Mobile display share of total online display % 6% 5% 4% 2% 0%

32 32 Just how crucial video and mobile are becomes clear if factoring them out of display 40% 30% display display excl. video display excl. video and mobile 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%

33 33 Classifieds & Directories sees group of countries with strong positive outliers above average rate 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%

34 34 Majority of markets outperform average search growth, largest search market just shy of average 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

35 OUTLOOK 35

36 What may the future hold? Addressable market is not only growing in mobile, but fixed-line as well 90 Fixed Broadband penetration of households (%) France Germany Italy Spain UK Nordics total Western Europe 36 Source: IHS Electronics & Media

37 yet the emerging multi-device landscape creates new opportunities Smartphones Tablets and ereaders STBs Western Europe: Connected Devices (m) Blu-ray disc players Games consoles Connected TV sets PC Source: IHS Elecronics & Media

38 Thank 38