George N.Filis and George S.Spais. Research topic: Promotion Service sector: Sport

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1 Stock Market Reaction on Official Football Club Sponsorship Announcement Using Event-Study Method: The Case of Juventus FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC stockholders behavior George N.Filis and George S.Spais Research topic: Promotion Service sector: Sport ABSTRACT The major objective of this study was to test if an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility. The paper dealt with stock market reaction on official football club sponsorship announcement using event-study method. Our research intention was to test 274 daily stock prices, in order investigate the potent influence between the announcement of an official football club sponsorship program and football club s stockholders behavior. For this study we examined the announcement data of two football clubs. Based on the research results, an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior. Key words : sport sponsorship, announcement data, event study method, football club stockholders behavior INTRODUCTION Sponsorship is again on the rise, and marketers have called for new efforts by researchers to measure the business value of this form of marketing communications. Sponsorship as a marketing tool has grown significantly, especially with respect to endorsement of worldwide sports events. The estimated expenditures for sponsorship rose from 13.4 Bn US-Dollar in 1996 (Cornwell and Maignan 1998) to 30 Bn US-Dollar in 2004 (World Sponsorship Monitor 2004). Therefore, controlling for sponsorship effects is of increasing importance and a very small percentage of sponsors regularly measure sponsorship effects. Several empirical efforts have investigated the organizational objectives try to achieve through their organizational sponsorship activities (Witcher et al. 1991). Sponsorship has traditionally been seen as having an effect on brand awareness and image (Hoek et al. 1999; Shanklin and Kuzma 1992; Abratt et al. 1987; Waite 1979). Some studies point to a shift in the priority of the objectives. Gardner and Shuman (1987) conducted a survey among 300 of the Fortune 500 organizations regarding their sponsorship practices. They reported that the highest priority was given to broad corporate objectives. A survey among the Fortune 1000 companies in the US supports this trend. The two main objectives of sponsorship reported were to enhance corporate image (corporate objective) and to increase awareness of brands (marketing objective). Fatt et al. (2000) study look at the enhancement of corporate image, which is considered as a strategic objective, in order to shift expectations of the stakeholders. Their measurement methods are often inadequate as they only consider changes of sponsorship recall over time or changes in brand image with is not correlated to sponsorship activities. Also, academic marketing research has been accused for its insufficient concern about sponsorship in general and specifically the measurement of sponsorship effects (Cornwell and Maignan 1998; Walliser 2003). Event studies in the sport sponsorship context Clark et al. (2002) consider the sponsorship of stadiums and arenas and Cornwell et al. (2001) consider the value of winning an auto racing event. Of particular relevance to our study, however, are the works of Spais and Filis (2006) and Farrell and Frame (1997), which considered Olympic sponsorships. All the above studies are considered important, as sponsorship announcement data are used examining sponsors stockholders behavior. However, no study until now has focused on the examination of stockholders behavior from the side of the sponsored sporting organizations and especially football clubs. Predictions of stock returns and stock volatility in positive events Mellers et al. (1999) discovered that individuals can accurately forecast the emotions they will experience after either outcome of a gamble. Investors may correctly anticipate how they will feel if the outcome of an 1

2 investment is negative, but they may either not be aware of or deny the potential difficulty in controlling their behavior when that outcome arouses strong reactive affect states. McDonald and Hirt (1997) report that affective preference correlates with self-forecasts of investing behavior. Mellers et al. (1997) find that gamblers choices are closely related to the strategy of selecting the monetary gamble associated with the better expected feeling. People prefer the gamble that, on average, gives them the greatest emotional satisfaction (Mellers et al. 1999). There is evidence that affective preferences drive buying and selling behaviors (Raaij et al. 1988). Anticipation of stock-related reward induces positive affect. Investors are thus predisposed to invest in (purchase) those stocks that they feel good about (positive affect). Investors are more likely to purchase a stock for which they can anticipate a rewarding future event. Based on the above evidence, we believe that investors (in a stable environment) optimally responds to memory loss with excess inertia, defined as a higher probability of following old decisions than would occur under full recall. The research aim and contribution of this study The major objective of this study is to test if an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility (p). So, our research aim is to test, if p is true. The paper deals with stock market reaction on official football club sponsorship announcement using event-study method. Our research intention is to test 274 daily stock prices, in order investigate the potent influence between the announcement of an official football club sponsorship program and football club s stockholders behavior. For this study we examined the announcement data of two (2) football clubs from Italy and UK. The main contribution of this study is to examine how sponsored sport organizations stockholders behavior is influenced by the announcement of a sponsorship program and to extend research scope of sport marketing field toward stock market. Thus, the influence of psychology in financial decisions and the clear shift of any service organizations (including sporting organizations) to prioritize the strategic objective of corporate image empowerment suggest the following two (2) research hypotheses: (H 1 ): If p is true, then q 1 is true (p q 1 ) where: (q 1 ). Null Hypothesis: Stock volatility are constant for different periods (pre, post). (H 2 ): If p is true, then q 2 is true (p q 2 ) where: (q 2 ). Null Hypothesis: Stock returns are constant for different periods (pre, post). RESEARCH METHOD We address the core research themes of our study using an event-study methodology, yet as we only have one stock per event, we will differentiate our study from a standard event study methodology. In order to use an event study methodology we need to identify an announcement. As this study is involved with football clubs, we get as our sample one Italian and one English team, namely Juventus FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC and the announcements refer to major sponsorship agreements. Our research intention is to test 274 daily stock prices, in order investigate the potent influence between the announcement of an official sport sponsorship program and stockholders behavior. In order to reject or accept the statedresearch hypotheses, we will perform an event study. The event-study methodology is used to examine the reaction of investors to positive and negative news. Regarding the statistical procedure, primarily we get daily data for the two stocks. The period of the study is 11 months. These 11 months will be 5 months prior to the announcement, 5 months after the announcement and the announcement month. We also get daily data for the market index for the same period. We use two indices, i.e. one for the UK market (FTSE all share index) and one for the Italian market (Mibtel). As the announcements did not occur at the same time, the period of the study differs for the two stocks. The period of study for Tottenham Hotspur FC is from September 2005 until July 2006 (the announcement took place on February 2005), whereas for Juventus FC is from November 2004 until September (the announcement took place on April 2005). The first step for the event study is to calculate the daily returns for the stocks and the indices. Having done that, we split the data into 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 months prior and after the announcement. Based on these daily returns we examine any differences on returns and variances. We employ a standard t-test and f-test methodology. If the 2

3 announcement has an impact on the stock, then we should be able to find significant differences in the risk (variance) and return of the stock prior and after the announcement. RESEARCH RESULTS Tottenham Hotspur FC: In the overall period of the study, the announcement did not appear to have any significant impact in the stock. As we can see in the table 1, despite the fact that the mean daily returns became positive after the announcement, the difference is not significant (t-statistic is -0.41). Table 1 Differences on mean daily returns prior and after the announcement Prior After Mean t Stat p value In addition, there is no significant difference in the variance of the stock prior and after the announcement, as shows in the following table. Table 2 Differences on variance of daily prior and after the announcement Prior After Variance F stat p value Despite the fact the in the overall sample the announcement did not have any significant impact we can observe that the announcement had an impact in the short term. Based on table 3 we can conclude that there is a significant difference at 10% level between the mean daily returns, as prior to the announcement the mean returns were negative and after the announcement became positive. Therefore, we can argue that in the short term the announcement had a positive impact for the stock in the short term. Table 3 Differences on mean daily returns one month prior and after the announcement Prior 1 month After 1 month Mean t Stat p value Apart from the above tests, we can also make few remarks based on the average daily returns for the months prior and after the announcement. Diagram 1 Average daily returns on monthly basis Tottenham FTSE All Share Index

4 As we can see, (five months prior and five months after the announcement) the deviation between the market returns and the stock s returns become very small. There is a clear positive influence of the announcement of the sponsorship program, as the team s stock starts to behave similar with the index. In addition, we split the average daily returns of the stock during the days that the market had a positive return and during the days that it had a negative return, as presented in the diagrams 2 and 3. Diagram 2 Average daily returns on monthly basis: Positive returns of the market prior 4 prior 3 prior 2 prior 1 prior 1 after 2 after 3 after 4 after 5 after Tottenham FTSE All Share Index Diagram 3 Average daily returns on monthly basis: Negative returns of the market prior 4 prior 3 prior 2 prior 1 prior 1 after 2 after 3 after 4 after 5 after Tottenham FTSE All Share index Based on the above findings (see diagrams 2 and 3) the stock underperforms when the market is positive and over performs when the market is negative. Surprisingly, this was not expected and there is no difference to this finding prior and after the announcement. However, a possible explanation could exist, as the majority of team s stockholders, are friends and supporters. Juventus FC: In the whole period of the study, the announcement did not appear to have any significant impact in Juventus FC returns. However, it had an impact in the risk level of the stock. Juventus FC risk has increase in the months after the announcement (see table 4). Table 4 Differences on mean daily returns prior and after the announcement Prior After Mean t Stat p value In addition, there is significant difference in the variance of the stock prior and after the announcement, as shows in the following table. 4

5 Table 5 Differences on variance of daily returns prior and after the announcement Prior After Variance 7.9E E-04 F stat 2.8E-01 p value 4.1E-12 Another interesting finding is related to the stock s volatility (risk) in the months prior and after the announcement. Based on the tables 6, 7 and 8, it seems that there is a significant difference at 5% level between the daily variance of the stock at one month prior and after the announcement, at two months and at three to five months. Moreover, the stock s daily variance is bigger for one and for three to five months after the announcement; whereas the variance is, lower for two months after the announcement. Table 6 Differences on variance of daily returns 1 month prior and after the announcement Prior 1 After 1 Variance 1.4E E-03 F stat 1.3E-01 p value 7.9E-06 Table 7 Differences on variance of daily returns 2 months prior and after the announcement Prior 2 After 2 Variance 1.1E E-05 F stat 3.0E+00 p value 8.3E-03 Table 8 Differences on variance of daily returns 3-5 months prior and after the announcement Prior 3-5 After 3-5 Variance 5.5E E-04 F stat 4.1E-01 p value 4.4E-05 The following diagram based on the average daily returns for the months prior and after the announcement shows us some interesting findings. Diagram 4 Average daily returns on monthly basis Juventus Mibtel

6 As we can see, (five months prior and five months after the announcement) the average daily returns of the stock tend to follow the pattern of the index s returns. As with Tottenham s Hotspur FC case, we find also that the announcement of the sponsorship has a positive influence of Juventus FC stock price. Splitting the average daily returns of the stock during the days that the market had a positive return and during the days that it had a negative return, we are also able to generate some conclusions. The main finding is that the stock underperforms when the market in positive and overperforms when the market is negative. However we can also notice an interesting point at one month after the announcement. At this particular month the stock exhibits a different behaviour as it shows a stronger positive attitude when the market is positive and a stronger negative attitude when the market is negative (see diagrams 5 and 6). The same argument presented for Tottenham Hotspur FC also exists here. Diagram 5 Average daily returns on monthly basis: Positive returns of the market Juventus Mibtel Diagram 6 Average daily returns on monthly basis: Negative returns of the market Juventus Mibtel Hypothesis Table 9 Research Results Support H 1 H1= if p is true then q 1 is true rejected H 2 H2= If p is true then q 2 is true rejected DISCUSSION As sport sponsorship remains an important marketing element with the promise of playing an even larger role in the future, the present work began with the major objective to test if an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility (p). So, our research aim was to test, if p is true. The paper dealt with stock market reaction on official football club sponsorship announcement using event-study method. Our research intention was to test 274 daily stock prices, in order investigate the potent influence between the announcement of an official football club sponsorship program and football club s stockholders behavior. For this study we examined the announcement data of two (2) football clubs from Italy and UK. The main contribution of this study was to examine how sponsored sport organizations 6

7 stockholders behavior is influenced by the announcement of a sponsorship program and to extend research scope of sport marketing field toward stock market. Based on the research results, we reject both research hypotheses. This means that an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility. Implications for marketing managers of sporting organizations All the studies involved in sport sponsorship effectiveness indicate that the sponsorship of content can cause audiences exposed to increase their willingness/intention to buy the sponsor s product/service not a surprising finding since that has always been the expectation (Schultz and Bailey 2000), which causes marketers to use sponsorship. Accumulating body of previous research work (based on event studies) ought to give marketers more certainty as to the return on sponsorship investments and therefore lead to marketing allocation shifts in the direction of sponsorship which reflect the higher levels of persuasion found in this type of marketing communication. Nevertheless, what about the sponsorship effect to the friends and supporters of a sporting organization such as football club and their willingness/intention to support more the team? The empirical proof of performance that has always been missing in these forms of sponsorship effectiveness measurements comes at the right time. Looking ahead, it is expected that more and more sporting organizations will become increasingly conscious regarding to the selection of the sponsor. In response, marketing managers of sporting organizations will begin to incorporate the image of the sponsor to their strategic tries of product positioning.the data we have collected supports the wisdom of using sponsorships more in the future as a way of empowering the sponsored sporting organization s and product s image in order to increase persuasion effects per euro over current average marketing methods. Limitations of the study The use of event study methodology is both strength and a weakness of this study. Based on the key variables trading analysis (volatility and transactions volume, e.g. Barberis and Thaler 2001; Hirshleifer 2001; Daniel et al. 2001) the event study methodology enhances generalizability because transactions volume (sales) measures have not been studied, as data were not available. However, more solid results can be achieved, if more than one stock (at the same event date) could be analyzed. Strengths of the study Some studies on sponsorship effectiveness base their results on longitudinal data use different respondents over time, making it impossible to analyze effects on the individual level (e.g. Easton and Mackie 1998, Nebenzahl and Jaffe 1991, Quester and Farrelly 1998, Stipp 1998). Additionally, respondents are often considered as a homogeneous group. While observable heterogeneity of consumers e.g. socio-demographics or involvement is considered to affect the effectiveness of sponsorship (Grohs et al. 2004), unobservable (latent) heterogeneity is not taken into account in existing research work on sponsorship effectiveness. In our study both football clubs stockholders are friends and supporters of the teams, so homogeneity is secured. As a consequence, conclusions on the effectiveness of specific types of sponsorship are differentiated, providing of high practical help for marketing practice. Further research Further research could continue to examine announcement data of both significant and insignificant sponsorship contracts at the same event dates or to measure sponsorship effectiveness using event method by examining both sponsor and the sponsored sporting organization. CONCLUSION As sport sponsorship remains an important marketing element with the promise of playing an even larger role in the future, the present work began with the major objective to test if an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility (p). The main contribution of this study was to examine how sponsored sport organizations stockholders behavior is influenced by the announcement of a sponsorship program and to extend research scope of sport marketing field toward stock market. Based on the research results, we reject both research hypotheses. This means that an official football club sponsorship announcement can influence football clubs stockholders behavior: stock returns and stock volatility. Looking ahead, it is expected that more and more sporting organizations will become increasingly conscious regarding to the selection of the sponsor. In response, marketing managers of sporting organizations will begin to 7

8 incorporate the image of the sponsor to their strategic tries of product positioning.the data we have collected supports the wisdom of using sponsorships more in the future as a way of empowering the sponsored sporting organization s and product s image in order to increase persuasion effects per euro over current average marketing methods. REFERENCES Abratt, R., Clayton, B.C. and Pitt, L.F. (1987). Corporate objectives in sports sponsorship. International Journal of Advertising 6: Barberis, N. and Thaler, R. (2001). A survey of behavioral finance. NBER Working Paper. Clark, J. M., Cornwell, T. B. and Pruitt, S. W. (2002). Corporate Stadium Sponsorship, Signaling Theory, Agency Conflicts and Shareholder Wealth. Journal of Advertising Research 42: Cornwell, T.B. and Maignan, I. (1998). An international review of sponsorship research. Journal of Advertising 27: Cornwell, T. B., Pruitt, S. W. and Van Ness, R. (2001). An Exploratory Analysis of the Value of Winning in Motorsports: Sponsorship-linked Marketing and Shareholder Wealth. Journal of Advertising Research 41: Daniel, K.D., Hirshleifer, D.A. and Teoh, S.H. (2001). Investor Psychology in Capital Markets: Evidence and Policy Implications. Dice Center WP. Easton, S. and Mackie, P When football came home: a case history of the sponsorship activity at Euro '96. International Journal of Advertising 17: Farell, K.A. and Frame, W.S. (1997). The value of Olympic Sponsorships: Who Is Capturing the Gold?. Journal of Market Focused Management 2: Fatt, J., Poon, T., Wei, M., Yuen, S. and Suan, W. (2000). Enhancing corporate image in organisations. Management Research New 23: Gardner, M.P. and Shuman, P.J. (1987). Sponsorship: an important component of the promotions mix. Journal of Advertising 16: Grohs, R., Wagner, U. and Vsetecka, S. (2004). Assessing the effectiveness of sport-sponsorships-an empirical examination. Schmalenbach Business Review 56: Hirshleifer, D.A. (2001). Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing. AFA New Orleans Meetings. Hoek, J., Gendall, P. and Theed, K. (1999). Sports sponsorship evaluation: a behavioural analysis. International Journal of Sports Marketing & Sponsorship 4. McDonald, H.E. and Hirt, E.R. (1997). When expectancy meets desire: motivational effects in reconstructive memory. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 72: Mellers, B.A., Schwartz, A. and Ritov, I. (1999). Emotion-based choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology 128: Nebenzahl, I. D. and Jaffe, E. D The Effectiveness of Sponsored Events in Promoting a Country's Image. International Journal of Advertising 10: Schultz, D.E. and Bailey, S. (2000). Customer/Brand Loyalty in an Interactive Marketplace. Journal of Advertising Research (May/June). Shanklin, W.L. and Kuzma, J.R. (1992). Buying that sporting image. Marketing Management (Spring): Spais, G.S. and Filis, G.N. (2006). Stock market reaction on Olympic sponsorship announcement using event-study method. Journal of Korean Academy of Marketing Science 16: Stipp, H. (1998). The impact of Olympic sponsorship on corporate image International Journal of Advertising 17: Quester, P. and Farrelly, F. (1998). Brand association and memory decay effects of sponsorship: The case of the australian formula one grand prix. Journal of Product & Brand Management 7: Raaij, F. van, Veldhoven, G. van and Warneryd, K.E. (1988). Handbook of Economic Psychology. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Walliser, B. (2003). An international review of sponsorship research: extension and update. International Journal of Advertising 22: Waite, N. (1979). Sponsorship in context. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis. Cranfield Institute of Management. Witcher, B., Craigen, J.G., Culligan, D. and Harvey, A. (1991). The links between objectives and function in organizational sponsorship. International Journal of Advertising 10:

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