POLI 100M: Poli-cal Psychology. Lecture 6: Campaigns Taylor N. Carlson

Transcription

1 POLI 100M: Poli-cal Psychology Lecture 6: Campaigns Taylor N. Carlson

2 Announcements Short Assignment 2 is due today any ques-ons? Midterm is on Tuesday 11am-12:15pm exam, 15 min break, class resumes at 12:30pm Mul-ple choice (35), matching (15), short answer (3 of 4) See study guide on TritonEd Office Hours: Tuesday 2:30-4:30 in SSB 341, or by appointment

3 Last Time Why do individuals choose informa-on sources? General trends trust and convenience are key Percep-ons of bias, hos-le media effect What role does the media play in shaping public opinion? Framing Priming How do individuals process informa-on from the media? Subject to cogni-ve biases (e.g. mo-vated reasoning)

4 What ques-ons do you have?

5 Today: Driving Ques-ons How do campaigns use psychology to win elec-ons? Is social pressure an effec-ve technique to boost turnout? For whom? Are campaign ads effec-ve? When, for whom, which type, and why?

6 Today: Learning Outcomes Define the following key terms: persuasion, turnout, social pressure, field experiment Describe how social pressure can be used to increase turnout and when it might be less effec-ve Explain whether (and when) campaign ads are effec-ve Evaluate the effec-veness of common campaign strategies from a psychological perspec-ve

7 Introduc-on to Campaigns

8 Campaigns What do campaigns do? With which campaign ac-vi-es do you come into contact the most?

9 Campaign Spending in 2016 Presiden-al candidates: Republican: $638 million Democrats: $794 million House candidates: Republican: $542 million Democrat: $422 million Senate candidates: Republican: $322 million Democrat: $350 million $8.3 million spent on CA CD 49 alone Source: Center for Responsive Poli-cs

10 Source: Center for Responsive Poli-cs

11 Source: Center for Responsive Poli-cs

12 Where does all the money go?

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15 Campaigns: 2 Key Func-ons 1. Mobilize changing behavior 2. Persuade changing aitudes

16 Mobiliza-on

17 How do campaigns mobilize? Informa-onal appeals Consistency theory Social pressure

18 How do we know whether campaigns successfully mobilized? Field experiments! Mobiliza-on dependent variable (DV): turnout Public record Directly observable no self-report bias Randomly assign individuals to various mobiliza-on treatments (the independent variable) and observe whether they turn out to vote

19 Informa-onal Appeals Reminding voters that there is an elec-on coming up Provide informa-on of how to register, when and where to vote, etc. Field experiments suggest that this can have a marginal effect on turnout

20 Consistency Theory Remind me what this is. How might this apply to campaigns? Commitment mechanisms!

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23 Common Consistency Technique Foot in the Door ask for a small favor, then follow up with a bigger favor Pledge cards Campaign dona-ons Volunteering

24 Social Pressure Do as most do, and people will speak well of thee Thomas Fuller

25 Social Pressure Conformity: a change in one s behavior due to real or imagined influence of others Compliance: changing one s behavior in response to a direct request

26 Conformity Not necessarily a bad thing Two types: Informa-onal Norma-ve

27 Conformity Informa(onal Behavior of others provides informa-on Leads to private and public acceptance Likely when: Ambiguous situa-on Crisis situa-on Others are experts Norma(ve Desire for approval from others Leads to public compliance, but not private acceptance Likely when: Unanimity Group is important to you Collec-vis-c culture

28 Norma-ve Conformity Example Asch (1952) Experiments In poli-cs: Carlson & Sesle (2016)

29 Compliance Changing one s behavior in response to a direct request Oten relies on social norms (e.g. reciprocity) Common techniques used to induce compliance: Door in the face Free git Bait and switch Even a penny would help Social valida-on

30 How do campaigns use social pressure? Combina-on of conformity and compliance Make vo-ng a social norm, such that social pressure enforces norm-compliance

31 How can we boost turnout? Gerber & Green (2000) Modes of contact Mailers Phone calls Canvassing Message Civic duty Close elec-on Neighborhood Solidarity

32 Civic Duty Treatment

33 Neighborhood Solidarity There is strength in numbers. Stand up and be counted. When people from our neighborhood don t vote we give poli-cians the right to ignore us and concentrate their energies elsewhere. But you can make sure that doesn t happen. By joining your neighbors and vo-ng on elec-on day, you ll send a message to our elected leaders: that you care and that they should care about your concerns. On November 3d Vote to ensure that we are not ignored. Remember to vote.

34 Elec-on is Close Their future starts with one vote. Yours. In an elec-on, anything can happen. This year many elec-ons will be decided by only a handful of votes will yours be the deciding vote? Don t miss your opportunity to make a difference, don t miss your chance to make an impact in our elec-ons. On November 3d make sure your vote is included, because no elec-on is ever a certainty and every vote counts. On November 3d don t miss your opportunity to make a difference. Remember to vote.

35 Results Phone calls: No impact on turnout Mailers: 0.6 percentage point increase in turnout per mailing Canvassing: 9.8 percentage point increase in turnout Message did not have a substan-al impact on turnout

36 Adding [more] Social Pressure Gerber, Green, & Larimer (2008) Treatment Groups: Control (no mailer) Civic Duty Hawthorne (you are being studied) Self Neighbors

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41 Results Control: 29.7% Civic Duty: 31.5%, 1.8 percentage point boost Hawthorne: 32.2%, 2.5 percentage point boost Self: 34.5%, 4.9 percentage point boost Neighbors: 37.8%, 8.1 percentage point boost

42 Social Pressure Mailers in Real Campaigns MoveOn.org Civic Ac-on (liberal group) sent vote history mailers to 12 million registered voters in all swing states and in most compe--ve congressional elec-ons in 2012 Americans for Limited Government (conserva-ve group) sent vote history mailers to 2 million registered voters

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46 Is Vo-ng Contagious? Yes (Nickerson 2008) Bond et al. (2012) find that social pressure on Facebook can also increase turnout! Slides borrowed/adapted from James Fowler

47 No Message N = 613,096

48 Message Only N = 611,044

49 Social Message N = 60,055,176

50 Message about user voting appears in news feed

51 a Direct Effect of Treatment on Own Behavior (%) Informational Message Social Message Social Message vs Informational Message Social Message vs Control 0 Self- Reported Voting Search for Polling Validated Place Voting Validated Voting

52 Mobiliza-on and Campaigns Summary Campaigns use many psychological techniques from informa-onal appeals, consistency theory, and social psychology (conformity and compliance) to mobilize voters The more social campaign contact is, the bigger the effect on turnout Explicit social pressure, even from less social modes (e.g. mailers), has large effects on turnout, but these methods can be controversial

53 Ques-ons?

54 Persuasion

55 Persuasion Aitude Change Three main components: Communicator: person trying to persuade Communica-on: content of the message Target: person communicator tries to persuade

56 Elabora-on Likelihood Model Two Routes to Persuasion: Central Peripheral Aitude change varies depending on mental effort, condi-onal on: Mo-va-on Ability

57 Persuasion in the ELM Audience factors High Mo-va-on Processing Approach Central Route Persuasion Outcome Las-ng Change Message Low Mo-va-on Peripheral Route Temporary Change

58 Persuasion: Cogni-on and Emo-on If the aitude is cogni-vely based, try to change it with ra-onal arguments If the aitude is affec-vely based, try to appeal to emo-ons What s the problem with trying to change poli-cal aitudes?

59 Campaigns and Persuasion Most common mode: Ads! Largest por-on of campaign budgets Three main types: Posi-ve Nega-ve Contrast

60 Processing Nega-ve Ads People pay more asen-on to nega-ve informa-on than posi-ve informa-on pleasure is less urgent than pain Process nega-ve informa-on using peripheral route: quick, automa-c, effortless, etc. What does this mean for persuasion?

61 Can campaign ads persuade? Very lisle evidence that they do Minor, short-lived changes in lab experiments Why? Asen-on, noise, peripheral route processing Minds already made up Heuris-cs and other cogni-ve biases make it hard to affect vote choice Maybe ads actually mobilize instead of persuade? Focus asen-on Informa-on seeking Interest

62 What s the deal with nega-ve ads? Demobiliza-on Hypothesis Mobiliza-on Hypothesis republican duty Candidate threat Perceived closeness of the elec-on

63 Social Pressure and Persuasion Broockman & Kalla (2016) Builds on techniques used by the Los Angeles Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Center Analogic Perspec-ve Taking Engages central route processing Deeply held beliefs, strong emo-ons

64 Broockman & Kalla Procedure Unrelated baseline survey Knocked on the door, iden-fied the organiza-on they were with Informed voters they might face a decision about whether to repeal the ordinance protec-ng transgender people Asked voters to explain their views Showed a video that presented arguments on both sides Defined transgender Asked if they were transgender Encouraged analogic perspec-ve taking Asked voters to describe if and how this changed their opinions Unrelated follow up surveys

65 Broockman & Kalla Results Those in the treatment group were significantly more suppor-ve of laws protec-ng transgender people Compared to baseline Compared to those who got the placebo treatment Opinion changes lasted up to 3 months

66 Ques-ons?