Facing Drought Hazards: Traits, Impacts and Adaptations

Transcription

1 Facing Drought Hazards: Traits, Impacts and Adaptations Wheaton, E., B. Bonsal, G. Koshida, N. Nicolichuk, E. Siemens, R. Udinoor-Palliath, V. Wittrock Canada Drought Research Initiative Users Workshop 14 January 2010, Winnipeg, Manitoba SRC Publication Number ?D10

2 Main Messages Nature of droughts Droughts are hazardousmany severe impacts Information about drought helps to manage the risks Priority vulnerabilities include agriculture, water, and communities Adaptations are critical Future hazards? Photo Source: Curry in SRC No D08

3 Drought is a complex extreme event Defined as a prolonged period of abnormally dry weather that depletes water resources for human and environmental needs Each drought appears to be different Four major types include Meteorological, Agricultural, Hydrological and Socio-economic

4 Drought and excessive precipitation Patterns are best described through multiple indicators and indices Analyzing the severity and area can help to develop early warning systems

5 Include duration, frequency, severity and geographic extent and pattern

6 Drought life cycle: onset on Jan 2001, growth to peak on Dec 2001, decline to end on May 2003

7 Drought Life Cycle- another view with PDSI Onset May 2001 to peak on Feb 2002 to end May 2003

8 Where did severe drought first appear (Onset of PDSI =< -3)? May 2001

9 Where did the peak area of drought occur? (February 2002) The pattern covers most of SK and MB

10 How did the drought end? (May 2003 agricultural region)

11 One Century of Data for Extremes Analysis 24 months representing extreme conditions were selected using PDSI 12 driest and 12 wettest months were selected from 104 years of data Eight of the 12 driest months were in 2002 Eight of the wettest months were in 1972

12 Record ranges from 1901 to 2005

13 Driest month (07/2002) based on PDSI

14 Driest month (07/2002) based on Z index

15 Record ranges from 1901 to 2005

16 Wettest month (04/1972) based on PDSI

17 Time series of the percentage of grids in severe drought (Prairies agricultural area)

18 Drought Frequency: percentage of grids in severe drought PDSI shows more frequent and longer droughts than SPI

19 Future integrated analyses Technical Data Topography Surface Data Sub- surface Data Integrated Severity Database modeling and visualization

20 Prairie Region has a High Risk of Drought Hazards Droughts are frequent, can cover large areas, be lengthy, be intense and sneaky Large portions of the economy of the Prairies is in drought sensitive sectors (e.g. agriculture) But adaptation is fairly strong as people have much experience and many options But, dealing with droughts is expensive and difficult (need water) Vulnerability= f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)

21 Droughts affect most sectors Water management Economic sectors, e.g., agriculture, forestry, transportation, industry Health Environment, e.g., wetlands, wildlife, vegetation Communities, municipalities Many others

22 Drought Impacts are Numerous and Severe (Wheaton et al. 2008) (Wheaton et al. 2008)

23 Have not gone away > 32 incidents of blowing dust with traffic accidents in SK in 2001 Two fatalities Soil and crop damage Dust Storms Adaptation work can be improved Wheaton et al. 2008

24 Community Impacts: Drought Lack of employment Low crop prices and high input costs Young people left Decrease in non-agricultural business due to negative impacts on agriculture sector In some communities, centralization of services in larger centers Wittrock et al smart Photo: science E. Wheaton solutions 2005

25 Socioeconomic Impacts of the Drought in Canada Total Canadian agricultural production loss was ~$3.6B Gross Domestic Product fell ~$5.8B Employment losses > 41,000 Worst year was 2002 Alberta and Saskatchewan were hit hardest Wheaton et al. 2008

26 Adaptive Strategies used for the Drought (Livestock Sector) Wittrock et al Photo Source: PFRA Selling cattle Moving cattle Best management strategies Buying feed Trucking water Buying/renting land in non-drought locations to use for feed Cash-leasing land

27 Adaptive Strategies for dealing with water scarcity (e.g. prairie communities) Imposed water restrictions Hauled water from alternative water sources Restricted use of drinking water Used grey water to water gardens Upgraded potable water infrastructure Wittrock et al smart Photo: science E. Wheaton solutions 2005

28 Vulnerability of the Canadian Prairies Exposed to many drought events Considerable investment in sensitive sectors, e.g., agriculture, water, forestry, tourism Vulnerability = function (sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) Must increase adaptive capacity to decrease vulnerability

29 Future Vulnerability? Some awareness of climate change and its implications exists Most of the current adaptation strategies are more reactive, few are pro-active Some of the adaptation strategies implemented due to the droughts may be valuable for many years e.g., pipelines Photo source: E. Wheaton 2005

30 Climate Hazards Expected to be of Increasing Concern (Canada in a Changing Climate, Sauchyn and Kulshrestha 2008) Droughts Heat waves Loss of winter advantages Intense rainfall and flooding Surprises

31 Future Extremes? Variability of SPI, SASKATOON OBS OBS OBS Source: Philippe Gachon and Rabah Aider, 2009 OBS

32 Drought Ends?

33 References and Bibliography Wheaton, E., S. Kulshreshtha, V. Wittrock, G. Koshida Summer. Dry times: lessons from the Canadian drought of 2001 and The Canadian Geographer 52(2): Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No A06. Wittrock, V., S. Kulshreshtha, E. Wheaton June. Six Prairie Communities Susceptbility to Drought. Invited presentation at the 61 st Annual National Conference of the Canadian Water Resources Association, June Gimli, MB. Saskatchewan Research Council Publication No D08. SRC, Saskatoon, SK. Wheaton, E., S. Kulshreshtha, and V. Wittrock (eds), B. Bonsal, A. Chipanshi, C. Grant, G. Koshida, S. Kulshreshtha, E. Wheaton, and V. Wittrock (Lead Authors), E. Guenther, R. Marleau, and D. Smeh (Contributing Authors) Canadian Droughts of 2001 and 2002: Climatology, Impacts and Adaptations. Prepared for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No E03. Wittrock, V Preliminary Description of the 2001 Drought in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No E02. Wittrock V., and Wheaton, E May. Towards Understanding the Adaptation Process for Drought in the Canadian Prairie Provinces: The Case of the 2001 to 2002 Drought and Agriculture. Prepared for Government of Canada s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No E07, 154 pp. Wheaton, E., G. Koshida, B. Bonsal, T. Johnston, W. Richards, V. Wittrock May. Agricultural Adaptation to Drought (ADA) in Canada: The Case of 2001 to Synthesis Report. Prepared for Government of Canada s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No E07. Sauchyn, D., and S. Kulshreshtha (lead authors), E. Barrow, D., Blair, J. Byrne, D. Davidson, P. Diaz, N. Henderson, D. Johnson, M. Johnston, S. Kienzle, J. Klaver, J. Thorpe and E. Wheaton (contributing authors) February. Prairies; In: Lemmen, D.S., F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, and E. Bush (eds.) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, p Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Publication No A08.

34 Decreasing Vulnerability, i.e. Increasing Resilience V = function (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) Assess the changing climate exposures and risks Test current adaptation processes and policies to determine gaps, barriers and bridges Enhance adaptive capacity, methods and implementation Develop flexible policies to deal with uncertainties and to deal with various time and space scales