Climate Change, Agriculture, and Technology in the Sahel: Integrated policy solutions

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1 Climate Change, Agriculture, and Technology in the Sahel: Integrated policy solutions Federico Castillo Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management University of California, Berkeley

2 Outline A. Climate Change The basics again Solution-Adaptation B. Agriculture The basics again-what is needed Solution-technology Solution-Institutional adoption

3 Recall: The Sahel and Climate Change

4 Extreme event: drought Adaptation to drought Aridity and rainfall variability have increased over time. Mean annual rainfall has decreased but with differences between location, an example at Kano, Nigeria: Period Mean rainfall (mm)

5 Drought adaptation Bottom up-top Down? There is no silver bullet to address whether households are more apt to adapt on their own or if government regulations/directives are the key in adaptation Policies that promote economic development go hand in hand with household and community adaptation to climate change An integrated approach is needed Integrated by: gender, crop, geography, institutions

6 Traditional adaptation: The Zai technique Relative low cost Applicable at the community/household level No or low fixed capital/infrastructure investment

7 Non traditional adaptation schemes: Irrigation Drip irrigation, Burkina Faso High capital costs Suitable for high value crops/cash crops? High transaction costs-investment under uncertainty? Need institutional support: credit markets, export markets, intensive extension Is there middle ground when it comes to using water in agriculture (no sprinkler irrigation for example)?

8 Drought adaptation: cont d Not all types of adaptation apply to an heterogeneous set of economic agents Institutional support level plays a role in adaptation to drought The above applies to other adaptions schemes: Drought/heat resistant seeds Infrastructure responses: dykes, canals, etc. Livestock/herding/migration

9 Recall: Agriculture and poverty in the Sahel Country Poverty level (% bellow poverty line) Rural poverty level Economic active population in Agriculture (%) Burkina Faso Mali Niger Senegal Without exception: Rural poverty levels are higher than for the rest of the country The countries included above are a good example of one common tread for all Sahel countries: Agriculture employs most of the economic active population. Any path to an increase in well being must include agriculture and all stakeholders in the rural sector-including women

10 What is needed in agriculture? Increase sustained production More adaptability to local conditions Less uncertainty at the household/community level (access to markets, credit markets, access to extension services, etc.) But, this is true of other geographical areas! Like, California, Mexico or.

11 Agriculture and technology adoption Recall the generic technology adoption pattern Saturation Early adopters

12 Adoption and technology: Cont d Adoption of innovation in crop production (% of farms) Adopted (%) Will adopt (%) Will not adopt (%) Stone bounds Micro water harvesting (Zai) Water harvesting (half moon) Improved seed Compost Private insurance contract Source: Barbier et. al., Can we see a pattern in the data above? What is going on with private insurance?

13 Adoption: institutional arrangements Mimetic Isomorphism (MI) Definition: The tendency of an organization to imitate another organization structure because of the belief that the structure of the latter organization is beneficial So here we are not discussing adoption of gadgets or methods but rather of structures and the beliefs that go along these structures How can we employ this concept in the Sahel?

14 Adoption of institutional arrangements: cont d Differences between traditional adoption (TA) theory and MI: In TA the unit of analysis is the individual or the household while in MI it is a group of individuals or households with a common institutional setting In TA the analysis tends to be statistical/numerical while in MI the analysis is more in line with organizational theory MI requires a more detailed and formal institutional setting than TA for analysis

15 IM Example: Saving for Change (SfC) in Mali (Thanks to Oxfam for sharing information and photos) Part of a Saving Groups program 680,000 members in 13 countries Mostly rural poor and women How does it work? Groups of women are trained to save regularly Members then borrow from their group s fund Loans are repaid with interest At the end of the saving cycle funds are divided and each member receives her share plus dividends

16 IM Example: Saving for Change (cont d) Some results of SfC: Women who choose SfC groups enter the program more likely to run a business than women who choose not to join Households in SfC villages were 10% less likely to experience chronic Food shortages Women participating in SfC were more likely to know at least two ways to prevent malaria.

17 Some results of SfC: cont d In Mali, livestock holdings per household in SfC villages increased by approx. US $120 more relative to control villages

18 SfC: cont d: Can we extend the analysis? The fact that malaria information was adopted is an indication that non financial information can be adopted as well: agriculture, technologies, family planning? Introducing the cost effectiveness measures at different stages of the process adds a tangible way to measure success. Increasing value added of an institutional adoption

19 Some preliminary conclusions Climate change adaptation in the Sahel needs to be related to extreme events Technology adoption (TA) may not follow the known patterns suggested by theory Institutional adoption (MI) can serve as a framework to analyze the introduction of platforms with multiple objectives