Climate Services in the Caribbean Related Activity to Date

Transcription

1 Climate Services in the Caribbean Related Activity to Date A D R I A N T R O T M A N C H I E F, A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y C A R I B B E A N I N S T I T U T E F O R M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D H Y D R O L O G Y 5th Session of the IBCS Management Committee Reading, UK, October 2017

2 Caribbean Roll Out in May 2013 in Trinidad and Tobago REGIONAL WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE SERVICES AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL FOR THE CARIBBEAN Since then national road map exercises in Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Guyana. Background - GFCS in the Caribbean Endorsed at the 53 rd Special Meeting of COTED (Environment and Sustainable Development).

3 Observations and Monitoring The essential infrastructure for generating the necessary climate data. Provision of observation equipment, rangauges, water level sensors, AWS Enhancing database and monitoring through remote sensing (e.g. satellite Colorado State University) and GIS technology and techniques datasets under BRCCC, GIS licenses under BRCCC (enhanced) Database release and launch of light synchronising version for Met Services; training Non- meteorological monitoring - CID/DEWETRA

4 CSIS - Long-Range Forecasts Consensus-based Oct - Dec 2015 observed tercile-based rainfall categories 0-/3-ml Tercile-based precip. and temp. outlooks + verification Thematic / hazard-specific outlooks Apr Jun 2017 observed tercile-based minimum temperature categories Greater focus on sub-seasonal forecasting

5 CSIS - Climate Monitoring drought and rainfall, temperature Produced through two in-house-built tools Reference Climatologies

6 CSIS Dissemination Newsletters/Bulletins Monthly CariCOF newsletter Monthly Bulletin of the Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network Monthly Caribbean Coral Reef Watch (May to December)

7 Co-development of Sectoral Bulletins New Tourism-Climatic Bulletin (since May 2017) New Health-Climatic Bulletin (since May 2017) Typical Bulletin development process Regional CAMI Bulletin (since 2011), now the Caribbean Agro- Climatic Bulletin of the CariSAM Testing exercises across the 3 bulletins Health focus group (2016 Dry Season COF. Photo credit: IRI

8 Consortium of Sectoral EWISACTs Partners The Consortium is a key regional mechanism to champion the design, development and delivery of tailored climate products and services in the agriculture and food security, disaster risk management, energy, health, tourism and water sectors. Support for Post-Doc Researchers CTO and CHTA sign the LoA, September 16th, 2016 Health Agriculture Energy Regional Consortium Water DRM Tourism Climate CWWA signs the LoA, October 26th, 2016 Co-design Co-develop Co-deliver Products & Services CARDI and CDEMA sign the LoA, December 6th, Consortium Meetings hosted by CIMH: May 2015, October 2015, July 2016 ~20 news articles featuring the Consortium and the signing of the LoA CARPHA and CIMH sign the LoA, April 26th, 2017

9 USER Interface Mechanisms Engaging Users can make their voices heard through these mechanisms and make sure climate services are relevant to their needs. Forums for individual or multiple sectors- Regional and National CariCOF Wet/Hurricane and Dry Season NCOFs in Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Suriname Now PICSA Roll Out Means for communication, awareness building, education, and feedback. Stakeholder meetings bring meteorologists and climatologists and the user-community together to discuss climate forecasts and other information; and provide feedback. Builds trust and understanding ICT portals, help desks

10 Capacity Building For Information Providers NMHS, CIMH Supports the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Pre-CariCOF training- Since 2012 Seasonal forecasts, verification, tools, Caribbean climate Drought and rainfall monitoring, Caribbean rainfall climate, instruments, remote sensing, statistical methods. National Seasonal Forecast training for Guyana (supported by Government of Guyana), Belize

11 Capacity Building For User Community Apart from training of NMHSs CariCOF Stakeholder Forum - Dry Season (agriculture and water); Wet Hurricane Season (DRM); 2016 strong health focus, 2017 Heat products Drought monitoring, management and planning Media Dry Season CariCOF 2015; Special media event February 2016; Wet Season CariCOF Support from EWISACTs Consortium

12 Research and Development To advance the science needed for improved climate services that meet user needs. Climate extremes, indices, forecasting and early warning (e.g. drought, heat waves), forecast verification, Statistical modelling of climate, (University of Reading) Heat and human health; other applications in livestock and poultry health (IRI, Columbia University) Social Sciences research to enhance climate services In progress, research on capacities of NMHS and User Needs Assessments (University of Arizona) Climate and vector borne diseases; Aedes Aegypti proliferation (SUNY) Dominica A. Breteau Index B. Container Index C. House Index Figure 16. Average Aedes aegypti larval indices for Dominica over the study period ( ) per environmental health district.

13 Recent Investments in Caribbean Climate Services 1 WMO/GFCS Office Programme for Building Regional Climate Capacity (BRCCC Programme) in the Caribbean USAID, WMO, CIMH (completed) USD2.3 million Programme for Implementing the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) at Regional and National Scales ECCC, WMO CIMH (to be completed March 2018) - USD Caribbean Agro-Meteorological Initiative (CAMI) ACP-EU, WMO, CIMH and ten NMHSs (completed) - EUR720, approved before the establishment of GFCS ACP-EU GFCS Programme? TBD determined, 2018.

14 Recent Investments in Caribbean Climate Services 2 GFCS Office Not Involved Non WMO/GFCS projects but also need to be tracked Caribbean Regional Track of the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (ongoing, commenced 2017) IADB, UWI, CIMH (Component 2) USD950,000 Building Capacity to Manage Water Resources and Climate Risk in the Caribbean USAID, HED, IRI, CIMH, UWI (completed) USD (completed) ~USD100,000 Rescue and Digitization of Meteorological and Hydrological Data (Database Management System and data rescue) CDB, CIMH USD291, 500 (completed) Enhancing Weather and Climate Early Warning Systems and Impacts-Based Forecasting Platforms in the CDB, CIMH USD200,000 (ongoing, commenced 2017) Expanded Weather and Climate Forecasting and Innovative Product and Service Development and Delivery in the Caribbean CDB, CIMH USD200,000 (ongoing, commenced 2017)

15 Future Work led by the Caribbean RCC Continue sourcing of donor support for Climate Services activity (including human resources a real concern) donor policies determine countries and activity to be funded Seeking sustainability of the programme and seeking to build on current products and services by Enhancing existing climate products and adding to it where deemed relevant Sustaining CariCOF and supporting the expansion of NCOFs CariCOF not funded for 2018 though main avenue to engagement, sharing and learning; an uncertain future Continuing to build national capacity, both in information product development by NMHS and interpretation, application in the user community Expanding the use of CIMH created tools (for example CariSAM portal), and making relevant ones globally available (e.g. CAROGEN) Support climate knowledge through research and scientific writing Sustaining the role of the EWISACTs programme, its consortium and role of social sciences research in Climate Services

16 Some Significant Barriers at the National Level Related to climate services providers Legal status and situation in government (interest in aviation, no real mandate for climate services) and NMHS HR structure reflects this. Funding and staffing of NMHS even outside climate services, expertise of staff. Sustainability in even the RCC Data limitations Related to climate information users User knowledge/capacity gaps Nature and quality of climate information; technical language, spatial resolution, impacts forecasts, format, variables other than rainfall and temperature Provider-user relationship gaps; how well do they understand each others limitations and strengths Data limitations

17 Thank you