Community Economic Development, Future Trends and Setting the Context for BR+E

Transcription

1 Community Economic Development, Future Trends and Setting the Context for BR+E Wayne Caldwell University of Guelph Rural Oxford Economic Development (Townships of Blandford-Blenhiem, East Zorra-Tavistock, Norwich, South-West Oxford and Zorra) September, 2011

2 Are you up for a quiz? 9 questions

3 Question 1: Within the next 30 years Canada s net job and population growth will come from immigration True or False False it is actually the next 20 years

4 Question 2: To sustain our population naturally we require a birth rate of 2.1 children / woman in her child bearing years True or False? True, although our actual birthrate, is only 1.6

5 Question 3: In % of all immigrants identified the GTA as their destination True or False? FALSE, the actual number is 80% (and when Hamilton and Ottawa are added the number exceeds 87%)

6 Question 4 :The first woman doctor to practice medicine in Canada was born in Oxford County: True or False? True. Emily Stowe ( ) was born in Norwich, May 1, 1831

7 Question 5: In what year did annual oil consumption begin to exceed annual oil discoveries world wide? Answer: Still hasn t happened

8 Question 6: The number of irrigation wells in West Texas alone exploded from 1,166 in 1937 to more than 11,000 by 1971 False the actual # was 66,000 True or False... Agriculture in much of the American southwest is dependent on irrigation from aquifers. It is reported that Groundwater levels in Garden City Kansas dropped 150 feet or more, forcing many farmers to abandon their wells.

9 Question 7: Jakeman s (of Oxford) is the exclusive provider of maple syrup to? A. The Prime Minister of Canada B. The Toronto Maple Leafs Hockey team C. Walt Disney World Correct answer: Walt Disney World

10 Question 8: Every year the planet loses an area the size of Scotland to erosion and urban sprawl True or False... True, and at the same time more than 70 million people are added to the worlds population

11 Question 9: In 2080 is Canada likely to see an increase or decrease in agricultural productivity due to climate change? Increase or Decrease? An increase, but

12 How did you score?

13 What trends/issues do you think may fundamentally change rural Oxford County? (feel free to think long-term)

14 Seven trends that can (will?) change rural communities Climate Change Peak Oil Population Growth and Food Security No Growth Scenarios Loss of Biodiversity The Global Economy and Political Instability Demographic Change

15 Seven trends that can (will?) change our world Reflecting upon this. The need to: bring a global perspective to local issues position ourselves for change develop a long-term perspective make increasingly tough decisions think about the 3 pillars of sustainability economic, environmental and social issues

16 Climate Change (and water) And remember the consequences beyond agriculture

17 Peak Oil Increasing Energy Prices & Availability What do you think will be the highest price of gasoline within 10 years? $2.00/ litre $3.00/litre $4.00/litre $5.00/litre $more than $5.00/litre?

18 Which of these lines do you think represents Global Oil Consumption ( )

19 Which of these lines do you think represents Global Annual Oil Discoveries( )?

20 What does increasing demand and decreasing supply mean? As a minimum increasing prices, if not shortages of conventional oil. Think of the Implications.

21 Population Growth and Food Security Ontario s population is projected to grow by nearly 4.8 million (36.6 %) over the next 27 years(2009 to 2036)* Every year the population of the planet increases by more than 70 million people * Ontario Ministry of Finance

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35 The future blending these trends??

36 Some things we can be fairly certain of The supplies of conventional oil will become increasingly limited Energy prices will escalate Immigration will become the sole source of population growth Rural communities will struggle to attract immigrants Climate change will have unanticipated effects at a global level both in terms of food security, loss of biodiversity and political instability

37 Some things we can be fairly certain of For the foreseeable future global population growth will continue (currently increasing at more than 70 million people per year) Continental and global migrations are probable Global economic power will increasingly shift to emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil Economic stagnation (including no growth scenarios) driven by energy prices and availability, climate change and related political instability will be an increasing concern We will increasingly reach for technological solutions, but our success with this is unknown

38 Given the fundamental issues that many rural communities face, what is an appropriate perspective on rural development?

39 Responding to Community, Economic and Environmental Issues Global Regional Local Local response required

40 Option 2 A more positive response

41 Community Economic Development: Success Factors

42 How Does BR+E fit into this? While you will hear more details concerning BR+E it captures many of the key words I have just mentioned

43 Questions