Ramadan Fasting and Agricultural Production in India

Transcription

1 Ramadan Fasting and Agricultural Production in India Heather Schofield (U Penn) April 19, 2018

2 Agricultural Production Agriculture is central to the lives of the poor around the globe It is well known that many factors influence agricultural productivity Climate and weather shocks Irrigation Access to credit Technology adoption High yield varieties Fertilizers Education.. Religion?

3 Literature The Economics of Religion Religion and individual decision making, human capital formation Hajj participation increases religious practice and limits participation in local customs, but also greater beliefs in peace and equality and are more supportive of women s rights (Clingingsmith et al 2009) Experiencing Ramadan in utero has a negative impact on birthweight and long run outcomes (e.g. cognitive testing, labor supply) (Almond and Mazumder 2011, Majid 2015) Religion and growth Negative correlation between growth and religious behavior or religiosity and economic growth (Barro and McCleary 2003 ; McCleary and Barro 2006, Barro and McCleary 2003). Evidence from country level panel data that a longer fast has a negative effect on output, increases subjective well-being (Campante and Yanagizawa-Drott 2015) Distinguishing features Identification Relies on extensive margin (overlap with Ramadan) rather than intensive margin (duration of daylight) Context Predominately Hindu, much lower level of economic development, broadly applicable industry Ability to examine pathways

4 Roadmap Background: Ramadan and India Data and identification Results: Effect of overlap between Ramadan and cropping cycle o Heterogeneity: % Muslim in district o Potential margins of adjustment: crop changes, land, labor, fertilizer, bullocks What channel(s) are driving the production decline? o o o o Caloric intake Religious or social obligations Sleep Dehydration

5 Ramadan Muslim holiday observed primarily through daylight fasting o Includes both food and water, though level of adherence can vary o Some individuals (e.g. pregnant women) are excluded from the fasting Lasts days Also abstain from smoking, sexual relations, and swearing during daylight Emphasis on prayer, charity Lunar holiday > cycles through calendar year approximately every 30 years (Blackwell 2009, Ahmad et al 2012)

6 India from % of GDP generated from agriculture in 1960 (World Bank 2012). Agriculture employed roughly 70% of the labor force (Government of India, Department of Agriculture 2016) Even today agriculture remains the primary occupation of working adults Rapid growth in output during Green Revolution (FAO 2013; Evenson and Gollin 2003) Major crops include rice, wheat, maize, jowar (sorghum), and bajra (pearl millet) Approximately 10% of the rural population was Muslim (Census of India) Geographic heterogeneity

7 Roadmap Background: Ramadan and India Data and identification Results: Effect of overlap between Ramadan and cropping cycle o Heterogeneity: % Muslim in district o Potential margins of adjustment: crop changes, land, labor, fertilizer, bullocks What channel(s) are driving the production decline? o o o o Caloric intake Religious or social obligations Sleep Dehydration

8 Data Indian Agriculture and Climate Dataset (World Bank) Annual agricultural production, prices 270 districts (85% of land area) Timeframe: 1956 to crops (for which a corresponding cropping calendar is available) (1) (2) Crop Name Mean value by district (1,000 tons) % districts with >0 production Rice Wheat Sugar Groundnut (peanut) Jowar (sorghum) Gram (lentils, chickpeas) Bajra (pearl millet) Maize Tur (pigeon pea) Other pulses Potato Cotton Barley Tobacco Rapeseed and Mustard Jute Sesamum (sesame) Ragi (finger millet) Average

9 Data Indian Agriculture and Climate Dataset (World Bank) Annual agricultural production, prices 270 districts (85% of land area), 32 years, 20 crops Crop calendar District specific sowing and harvesting seasons for 18 crops 1967 Indian Crop Calendar, compiled by Donaldson (2013) University of Delaware Climate Resource Data 0.5 x 0.5 gridded monthly total rainfall and average temperature Ramadan dates Percentage of the population that is Muslim 1961 Indian Census British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Databases 0.5 x 0.5 gridding daily potential evapotranspiration (PET, a measure of evaporative potential) and maximum temperatures National Sample Survey (NSS) Consumer Expenditure (Schedule 1, Rounds 60, 62, 64) Employment/Unemployment (Schedule 10, Rounds 43, 60, 61, 62, 64, and 66) International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) Village Dynamics in South Asia Micro-level Data, Second generation

10 Identification General strategy: Does production change with greater overlap between Ramadan and the labor intensive parts of the crop cycle (sowing and harvesting)? Three differences: 1. Variation in timing of crop cycles for crops within a district Different crops within a district-year

11 1. Different Crops Within a District-Year Rice Sowing Maize Harvest Gram Sowing Rice Harvest Gram Harvest Maize Sowing Ramadan Rice Gram Maize Overlap fraction sowing Overlap fraction harvest Average SD = 74 days

12 Identification General strategy: Does production change with greater overlap between Ramadan and the labor intensive parts of the crop cycle (sowing and harvesting)? Three differences: 1. Variation in timing of crop cycles for crops within a district 2. Variation in cropping cycles across districts within a year Crop in a year across districts

13 Crop Name 2. Crop in a Year Across Districts (1) (2) (3) (4) % of districts with Sowing start, positive production SD Mean value by district Harvest start, SD Rice Wheat Sugar Groundnut (peanut) Jowar (sorghum) Gram (lentils, chickpeas) Bajra (pearl millet) Maize Tur (pigeon pea) Other pulses Potato Cotton Barley Tobacco Rapeseed and Mustard Jute Sesamum (sesame) Ragi (finger millet) Average

14 Identification General strategy: Does production change with greater overlap between Ramadan and the labor intensive parts of the crop cycle (sowing and harvesting)? Three differences: 1. Variation in timing of crop cycles for crops within a district 2. Variation in cropping cycles across districts within a year 3. Ramadan is a lunar holiday cycles throughout the calendar year Crop in a district across years

15 3. Crop in a District Between Years Agricultural Year 1960 Agricultural Year 1961 Harvest 1960 Sowing 1961 Harvest 1961 Sowing 1962 Ramadan Ramadan Overlap fraction sowing Overlap fraction harvest 0 0 Note: Ramadan cycles throughout the entire year approximately every 30 years. Year-to-year variation for a given crop-district combination [Additional detail]

16 Diff-in-diff-in-diff with Crop-Year-District Variation q cdt = β 0 + β 1 S cdt + β 2 H cdt + θ cd + π dt + α ct + λx cdt + ε cdt q cdt = log production of crop c, in district d, and year t S cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing H cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest θ cd, π dt, α ct = crop-district, district-year, and crop-year fixed effects X cdt = vector of time varying controls for rainfall and temperature

17 Roadmap Background: Ramadan and India Data and identification Results: Effect of overlap between Ramadan and cropping cycle o Heterogeneity: % Muslim in district o Potential margins of adjustment: crop changes, land, labor, fertilizer, bullocks What channel(s) are driving the production decline? o o o o Caloric intake Religious or social obligations Sleep Dehydration

18 Overlap Between Ramadan and Cropping Cycles Reduces Output (1) (2) (3) Dependent Variable ln(q) ln(value) ln(q) Crops All All Rice only Overlap sowing * *** *** [0.010] [0.010] [0.016] Overlap harvest *** *** *** [0.009] [0.009] [0.015] Mean of dependent variable N 103, ,088 7,741 Full overlap between Ramadan and sowing or harvesting production 1.7% to 4.4% Result is consistent in major and economically important crops (e.g. rice) Robust to levels in addition to logs 9.9% of rural population is Muslim Scale declines in output by fraction of individuals impacted by the holiday Productivity per Muslim individual declines 17 to 44% [Levels] [Consistency]

19 Net Declines in Production Distribution of Fraction of Ramadan Covered by Sowing and Harvesting Percentile Fraction of Ramadan covered by Sowing Fraction of Ramadan covered by Harvest mean N 103, ,104 Production decline (weight) from Ramadan in an average year: (0.017)*(0.166) + (0.025)*(0.172) = 0.7% Value lost: (0.028)*(0.166) + (0.044)*(0.172) = 1.2% Lose 0.5% of GDP annually during this period.

20 Distribution of Muslims in India

21 Rural Fraction Muslim Percent of Districts Rural Fraction Muslim Note: Data are drawn from the 1961 Indian Census and based on the 270 districts in the Indian Agricultural and Climate Dataset. [Distribution]

22 Diff-in-diff-in-diff with Crop-Year-District Variation q cdt = β 0 + β 1 S cdt + β 2 H cdt + β nn ss S cdt *MM dd nn + β nn h H cdt *MM dd nn + θ cd + π dt + α ct + λx cdt + ε cdt q cdt = log production of crop c, in district d, and year t S cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing H cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest MM nn dd = fraction of Muslims in rural portions of district d in 1961 θ cd, π dt, α ct = crop-district, district-year, and crop-year fixed effects X cdt = vector of time varying controls for rainfall and temperature

23 Heterogeneity in Declines by Fraction Muslim (1) (2) (3) (4) Dependent Variable ln(q) ln(q) ln(value) ln(value) Overlap sowing ** [0.029] [0.015] [0.029] [0.015] Overlap sowing*>p50 Muslim ** ** [0.034] [0.036] Overlap sowing*fraction Muslim *** *** [0.203] [0.207] Overlap sowing*fraction Muslim *** 2.651*** [0.429] [0.439] Overlap harvest [0.018] [0.013] [0.019] [0.013] Overlap harvest*>p50 Muslim ** *** [0.025] [0.026] Overlap harvest*fraction Muslim *** *** [0.192] [0.198] Overlap harvest*fraction Muslim *** 2.893*** [0.432] [0.46] Mean of dependent variable Observations 103, , , ,088 Note: Overlap = Fraction of Ramadan covered

24 Heterogeneity in Declines by Fraction Muslim (1) (2) (3) (4) Dependent Variable ln(q) ln(q) ln(value) ln(value) Overlap sowing ** [0.029] [0.015] [0.029] [0.015] Overlap sowing*>p50 Muslim ** ** [0.034] [0.036] Overlap sowing*fraction Muslim *** *** [0.203] [0.207] Overlap sowing*fraction Muslim *** 2.651*** [0.429] [0.439] Overlap harvest [0.018] [0.013] [0.019] [0.013] Overlap harvest*>p50 Muslim ** *** [0.025] [0.026] Overlap harvest*fraction Muslim *** *** [0.192] [0.198] Overlap harvest*fraction Muslim *** 2.893*** [0.432] [0.46] Mean of dependent variable Observations 103, , , ,088 Note: Overlap = Fraction of Ramadan covered

25 Production Declines by Fraction Muslim % Change in Production, Full Overlap with Ramadan p25 p50 p Fraction Muslim ln(q), sowing ln(q), harvest ln(v), sowing ln(v), harvest Overall average [Productivity Declines]

26 Potential Margins of Adjustment 1) Change which crops are produced to avoid overlap Similar results by district-year aggregation

27 District-Year Aggregation (1) (2) Dependent Variable ln(q) ln(value) Overlap sowing *** *** [0.013] [0.014] Overlap harvest ** *** [0.015] [0.016] Mean of dependent variable Observations 8,668 8,668 Reassuring for identification strategy Suggests altering crop mix is not a substantial margin of adjustment [Consistency]

28 Potential Margins of Adjustment 1) Change which crops are produced to avoid overlap Similar results by district-year aggregation 2) Adjust input mix Labor National Sample Survey (NSS) ICRISAT Land cropped Bullocks Fertilizer

29 Labor Supply and Earnings National Sample Survey (NSS) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dependent variable Labor days Total earnings Ln(Total Earnings) Labor days Total earnings ln(total earnings) Sample Agricultural Laborers Rural Casual Laborers Timing High Labor Demand Seasons High Labor Demand Seasons Days overlap between survey * period and Ramadan [0.043] [3.751] [0.022] [0.026] [2.075] [0.007] Muslim [0.08] [8.176] [0.045] [0.101] [16.354] [0.027] Muslim*Overlap between survey period and Ramadan [0.04] [2.787] [0.021] [0.032] [3.958] [0.010] Mean of dependent variable Observations R-squared Notes: 1) Samples are drawn from the Indian National Sample Survey, Schedule 10 (Employment), rounds 60, 61, 62, 64, and 66. These rounds are selected because they contain survey dates while earlier rounds do not. 2) "Agricultural laborer" samples include only individuals who indicate that agricultural work is their primary or secondary occupation. The "Rural casual laborers" sample includes individuals living in rural areas who indicate that they participate in the casual labor market. "High Labor Demand" restricts the samples to surveys conducted during the sowing or harvesting seasons for the crop with the greatest acreage by state. Results are similar using the full year sample.

30 Dependent variable Labor Supply and Earnings - ICRISAT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Average Ln(Total Labor Average work Earnings) days work hours hours Labor days ln(total earnings) Sample Agricultural Laborers Agricultural Laborers Timing High Labor Demand Seasons Days overlap between survey period and Ramadan Muslim*Overlap between survey period and Ramadan *** *** [0.035] [0.001] [0.001] [0.038] [0.002] [0.001] 0.155* [0.089] [0.011] [0.006] [0.142] [0.019] [0.008] Mean of dependent variable Number of individuals 1, , Observations 31,432 19,417 19,287 19,481 12,641 12,520 R-squared Notes: 1) "Agricultural Laborers" samples include only individuals who indicate that agricultural work is their primary occupation. "Agricultural Laborers, High Season" samples include observations from individuals in the "Agricultural Laborers" sample for which the interview period had at least 15 days of overlap with a "high labor demand" period defined as the sowing or harvesting seasons for the crop with the greatest acreage by state. 2) Labor supply is defined as the number of days of labor including both paid and unpaid labor but excluding domestic work in the past month. Wages are calculated as the sum of cash and in-kind wages during the month. Average hours worked is only reported for paid labor. If the participant reports more than one paid job, average hours worked is calculated as a weighted average. 3) Religion is captured via the caste variable, which contains a category for Muslim individuals, because it is not directly reported.

31 Potential Margins of Adjustment (1) (2) (3) Dependent Variable Area Bullocks Ln(Fertilizer) Crops All All All Fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing , , Fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest , , Mean of dependent variable , N 136,960 8,672 8,458 No significant changes in area planted, bullocks, total fertilizer use. Data on bullocks and fertilizer use is at the district-year Note: May not expect changes on extensive margin for investments used over many seasons (e.g. bullocks). What changes are driving reductions in output?

32 Roadmap Background: Ramadan and India Data and identification Results: Effect of overlap between Ramadan and cropping cycle o Heterogeneity: % Muslim in district o Potential margins of adjustment: crop changes, land, labor, fertilizer, bullocks What channel(s) are driving the production decline? o o o o Caloric intake Religious or social obligations Sleep Dehydration

33 Potential Channels Many potential channels could drive these impacts Fasting (changes in amount, content, or timing of food) Religious or social obligations reduce labor supply Sleep deprivation Dehydration

34 Caloric Intake Declines Dependent variable Daily Per Capita Caloric Decline for Muslims Daily Per Capita Calorie Availability, Topcoded at 99th percentile Muslim *** [28.86] Full survey period overlaps Ramadan [271.5] Muslim*Full survey period overlaps Ramadan ** [368.9] Mean of LHS Variable 2, N 36,618 Note: Sample includes only rural households whose primary occupation is agriculture [Robustness]

35 Potential Channels Many potential channels could drive these impacts Fasting (changes in amount, content, or timing of food) Religious or social obligations reduce labor supply Sleep deprivation Dehydration 1) Omnibus test Lagged productivity declines Recovery from low caloric intake is slow, taking weeks or months (Keys et al 1950) Recovery from dehydration and sleep deprivation typically much more rapid (Belenky et al 2003; Sawka et al 2007) Religious and social obligations from the holiday should cease after the holiday ends. Potential test: If declines are persistent, suggestive of caloric pathway

36 Persistence of Declines in Output Following Ramadan (and Eid) (1) (2) (3) (4) Eid length 2-day Eid 4-day Eid 2-day Eid 4-day Eid Dependent Variable ln(q) ln(q) ln(v) ln(v) Fraction 1st week post Eid covered by sowing Fraction 2nd week post Eid covered by sowing [0.017] [0.017] [0.017] [0.017] [0.017] [0.017] [0.018] [0.017] Fraction 1st week post Eid covered by harvest Fraction 2nd week post Eid covered by harvest * *** ** [0.014] [0.013] [0.014] [0.014] * [0.014] [0.013] [0.014] [0.013] Mean of dependent variable Observations 103, , , ,088

37 Is the Magnitude Plausible? When the mean amounts of calories are as low as they are in the poor nations of the world, labor force participation rates and measures of labor productivity are bound to be low, especially when the hours of labor are adjusted for the intensity of labor. Robert Fogel, 1993 Nobel Lecture Empirically, unclear impact of adult calories on productivity Mixed results, e.g. o Increase: Kraut and Muller (1946), Strauss (1986), and Wolgemuth et al. (1982) o No change: Deolalikar (1988), Immink and Viteri (1981)

38 Energy Available for Farm Labor Assumptions Rural caloric intake in 1983: 2240 calories /day (Deaton and Dreze 2009) Consistent with previous estimates Adjust for adult equivalents inflate 15% to 2,600 calories/day for working adults Basil Metabolic Rates(BMR) 1,100-1,400 calories/day in rural southern India (Ferro-Luzzi et al. 1997) Use lowest estimated BMR, 1,100 calories/day Assume that all calories beyond BMR used for farm labor Decline of 700 calories/day during Ramadan (Author s calculations, NSS consumer expenditure schedule) 180 to 540 calories per hour for farm work (Passmore and Durnin 1955) Assume middle of range, 360 calories/hour Energy available for farm labor: Typical = = hours Fasting = = hours Implication: ( )/4.2 = 48% decline in available labor energy

39 Potential Channels 1) Omnibus test Lagged productivity declines 2) Religious and social obligations No change in reported labor supply or earnings

40 No Change in Labor Supply and Earnings (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Sample ICRISAT Agricultural Laborers NSS Agricultural Laborers Dependent variable Labor days Average work hours Days overlap between survey period and Ramadan ln(total earnings) Labor days Total earnings Ln(Total earnings) *** * [0.035] [0.001] [0.001] [0.043] [3.751] [0.022] Muslim [0.08] [8.176] [0.045] Muslim*Days overlap between 0.155* survey period and Ramadan [0.089] [0.011] [0.006] [0.04] [2.787] [0.021] Mean of LHS variable Number of individuals in sample Observations 31,432 19,417 19, R-squared

41 Potential Channels 1) Omnibus test Lagged productivity declines 2) Religious and social obligations No change in reported labor supply or earnings NSS reporting is coarse (4 hour blocks) Could be change in intensity of labor which is not captured

42 Potential Channels 1) Omnibus test Lagged productivity declines 2) Religious and social obligations No change in labor supply or earnings 3) Sleep Deprivation Napping does not interfere with reported labor supply Literature finds substantial negative impacts on cognitive function such as reaction time and memory (Lim and Dinges 2010) But, limited impact on physical performance unless severe (e.g. Sinnerton and Reilly 1992; Guezennec et al. 1994) No existing data to test directly.

43 1) Omnibus test Lagged productivity declines 2) Religious and social obligations No change in labor supply or earnings 3) Sleep Deprivation Napping does not interfere with labor supply Limited to no impact on physical performance unless severe 4) Dehydration Physical declines begin at losses >2% body weight (e.g. Sawka et al 2007) Expected losses this threshold Potential Channels No change in production with higher evaporative potential

44 Expected Water Losses No direct studies calibrate with other activities, literature Running a marathon 2500 calories Lose 3-4% body weight at similar temperatures (Rehrer 1996) Day of farming 1200 calories (Fluck 1992; Nag et al. 1980) Greater passive cooling, less wasted sweat dripping (Candas 1979, Shapiro et al. 1982) Low BMI, low body fat percentage, acclimatization lower sweat rates (Havenith et al1995; Havenith 2001; Casa 1999b) Active individuals require approx. 1.4 liters of additional water (Sawka 2005) Average temperature during sowing/harvesting 27 ο C Average weight 55kg Declines begin at 2% loss 1.1 liters

45 Higher Perspiration Rates Do Not Lead to Production Declines Dependent variable ln(q) Fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing [0.138] Fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing*above median fraction Muslim [0.17] Average evaporative potential during sowing*fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing*above median fraction Muslim [0.012] Fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest [0.111] Fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest*above median fraction Muslim *** [0.129] Average evaporative potential during harvest*fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest*above median fraction Muslim 0.019** [0.009] Mean of dependent variable Observations 58,443 Note: Model is fully saturated, but not all coefficients are shown for parsimony.

46 Summary of Channels Difficult to isolate. Suggestive rather than conclusive. Evidence is consistent with changes in caloric intake driving reduced labor productivity. Decrease in caloric intake Omnibus test of lagged declines Magnitude of declines is consistent with calibration No direct evidence for impacts via: Religious or social obligations Sleep deprivation Dehydration

47 Return on Investment Year Price per kg (rice) Daily wage One Month ROI Minimum Annual ROI Notes: Assumes a 20% change in productivity. One month ROI: increased calories and productivity during sowing/harvest only. Minimum Annual ROI: increased calories throughout year, but higher productivity during sowing/harvest only. Range: [8, 1623] Preferred estimate: 228

48 Summary of Results Ramadan drives substantial declines in agricultural production 2% to 4% decline in output by weight and value for full overlap Implies 20% to 40% in productivity per Muslim individual Magnitudes are economically meaningful 1.2% decrease in the value of agricultural production annually in India 0.5% of GDP annually Declines increasing in the fraction of Muslims in the district Margins of adjustment No evidence of changes in crops produced, land use, or inputs (bullocks, fertilizer) No change in reported labor supply for either Muslims or non-muslims Suggestive evidence that decline in calories may be a driver Suggestive rather than conclusive Substantial declines in intake by Muslims during Ramadan Declines in production are persistent following Eid Lack of evidence for changes due to dehydration or labor supply

49 Appendix

50 Example: Calculating Overlap Between Cropping Cycles and Ramadan 1. Agricultural year X defined by the seasons leading to harvest in agricultural year X 2. Overlay with current year and previous year Ramadans Accounts for long cropping cycles and sowing periods in the previous calendar year 3. Aggregate across Multiple seasons / year Multiple Ramadans / year 4. Divide by 29, the number of days in Ramadan Agricultural Year X- 1 Typical Example Agricultural Year X Harvest x-1 Sowing x Harvest x Sowing x+1 July 1, X-1 Ramadan July 1, X Ramadan July 1, X+1 Year X Overlap fraction sowing 0.3 Overlap fraction harvest 0 [Back]

51 Example: Calculating Overlap Between Cropping Cycles and Ramadan 1. Agricultural year X defined by the seasons leading to harvest in agricultural year X 2. Overlay with current year and previous year Ramadans Accounts for long cropping cycles and sowing periods in the previous calendar year 3. Aggregate across Multiple seasons / year Multiple Ramadans / year 4. Divide by 29, the number of days in Ramadan Long Crop Cycle Example Agricultural Year X- 1 Agricultural Year X Sowing x Harvest x Sowing x+1 July 1, X-1 Ramadan July 1, XRamadan July 1, X+1 Year X Overlap fraction sowing 0.1 Overlap fraction harvest 0 [Back]

52 Example: Calculating Overlap Between Cropping Cycles and Ramadan 1. Agricultural year X defined by the seasons leading to harvest in agricultural year X 2. Overlay with current year and previous year Ramadans Accounts for long cropping cycles and sowing periods in the previous calendar year 3. Aggregate across Multiple seasons / year Multiple Ramadans / year 4. Divide by 29, the number of days in Ramadan Agricultural Year X- 1 Multiple Cropping Example Agricultural Year X Sowing x-1 Harvest x-1 Sowing x Harvest x Sowing x Harvest x Sowing x+1 Harvest x+1 July 1, X-1 Ramadan July 1, X Ramadan July 1, X+1 Year X Overlap fraction sowing = 0.2 Overlap fraction harvest = 0 [Back]

53 Overlap Between Ramadan and Cropping Cycles Reduces Output (1) (2) Dependent Variable q value Crops All All Fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing *** ** Fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest *** *** Mean of dependent variable N 136, ,960 Quantities are in thousands of tons and Values are in millions of Rs. [Back]

54 Consistency in Production All Crops Fraction Fraction of Years with Positive Production, by District-Crop [Back]

55 Consistency in Production Major Crops Only Fraction Fraction of Years with Positive Production, by District-Crop [Back]

56 Dependent variable Daily Calories per Capita in Rural Agricultural Households (1) (2) (3) (4) Topcoding method No topcoding Topcoded at 99th percentile Daily Per Capita Calorie Availability Topcoded at 99th percentile, conditional on positive consumption Winsorized at p1 and p99 Muslim *** *** *** *** [41.54] [27.49] [28.86] [27.34] Full survey period overlaps Ramadan Muslim*Full survey period overlaps Ramandan 455.1* * [259.1] [274.7] [271.5] [256.77] * ** [384.8] [336.9] [368.9] [356.5] Mean of LHS variable N 36,618 36,618 36,618 36,618 [Back]

57 Distribution of Muslims in Rural Areas Percentile Percent Muslim mean (district weighted) 7.6 mean (population weighted) 9.9 Notes: 1. Data are drawn from the 1961 Indian Census and based on the 270 districts in the Indian Agricultural and Climate Dataset. [Back]

58 Heterogeneity by Fraction Muslim q cdt = β 0 + β 1 S cdt + β 2 S cdt *M d + β 3 S cdt *M d2 + β 4 H cdt + β 5 H cdt *M d + β 6 H cdt *M d2 + θ cd + π dt + α ct + λx cdt + ε cdt q cdt = log production of crop c in year t and district d S cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by sowing H cdt = fraction of Ramadan covered by harvest M d = fraction of Muslims in rural area of district in 1961 θ cd, π dt, α ct = crop-district, district-year, and crop-year fixed effects X cdt = vector of time varying controls for rainfall and temperature [Back]

59 Chnage in Productivity per Muslim, Full Overlap with Ramadan Change in Productivity per Muslim Individual ln(q), sowing ln(q), harvest ln(v), sowing ln(v), harvest Overall Average Limited Support Fraction Muslim [Back]

60 High Return on Investment to Caloric Intake in Agricultural Production Year Price per kg (Rice) Daily wage Productivity change One Month ROI Minimum Annual ROI Notes: 1. One month ROI: increased consumption and productivity during sowing/harvesting only 2. Minimum Annual ROI: increased consumption throughout year, but higher productivity only during sowing/harvest [Back]