Weekly Cattle Market Update For the Week Ending August 24, 2018

Transcription

1 This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own risk. Weekly Cattle Market Update For the Week Ending August 24, 2018 All prices are quoted in Canadian dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt) unless otherwise stated. Saskatchewan Feeder Steer and Feeder Heifer Prices ($/cwt) Feeder Steers lb. Aug. 24/2018 Average N.A. N.A. $ $ $ $ $ Aug. 24/2018 Range N.A. N.A week/week Change N.A. N.A. N.A. $2.75 $6.83 $1.67 $7.17 Aug. 17/2018 Average N.A. N.A. N.A. $ $ $ $ Aug. 25/2017 Average N.A. N.A. $ $ $ $ $ Feeder Heifers lb. Aug. 24/2018 Average N.A. N.A. $ $ $ $ Aug. 24/2018 Range N.A. N.A week/week Change N.A. N.A. N.A. $0.58 $1.33 -$0.70 Aug. 17/2018 Average N.A. N.A. N.A. $ $ $ Aug. 25/2017 Average N.A. $ $ $ $ $ Source: Canadian data is provide by CanFax and cannot be redistributed without Canfax consent ( Note: Prices are determined from Saskatchewan auction marts' reports of sale results from Thursday of the previous week to Wednesday the current week. N.A. means not available due to lack of sufficient data. Canfax reported that a total of 4,899 head of cattle were sold in Saskatchewan over the week, up from 3,181 head the previous week, and up from 4,132 head the same week a year ago. Cattle sold over the last seven weeks in Alberta and Saskatchewan averaged 24,496 head per week, up 44 per cent from 16,145 head per week over the same period in Continued dry conditions and lack of hay in many parts of Western Canada have likely pushed some marketing s forward. Saskatchewan feeder cattle prices were higher over the week with more weight categories reported. Saskatchewan feeder steer prices increased between $1.67 per cwt and $7.17 per cwt over the week in the weight categories 600 lb. and higher. The largest price gains were in the 900+ lb. weight category. Feeder steer prices on average were almost ten per cent higher than over the same week a year ago in Saskatchewan feeder heifer prices were steady but mixed over the week. Feeder heifer prices ranged between $0.70 per cwt lower and $1.33 per cwt higher in the 600 lb. to 800+ lb. weight categories. The only price decline was in the 800+ lb. weight category; while the largest price gain was in the lb. feeder heifer weight category. Feeder heifer prices were over ten per cent higher than the same week a year ago. Saskatchewan feeder cattle prices are provided by Canfax (# ) or ( and cannot be redistributed without permission. 1

2 The Saskatchewan 750 lb. feeder steer basis compared to the August 23, 2018, U.S. feeder cattle index at US$ per cwt was calculated at (+$15.85) per cwt ($ US$150.85/0.7671), a basis strengthening of $4.87 per cwt from the basis of (+$10.95) per cwt from August 2, Feeder cattle daily futures prices were primarily lower over the week with some big down days pushing prices lower, week-over-week. Feeder cattle futures markets have started to show some weakness the last few weeks after moving higher in July. The August-to-October feeder cattle futures contracts declined between US$1.75 per cwt and US$5.125 per cwt over the week. The October contract declined US$5.125 per cwt over the week to settle Friday US$ per cwt. Source: CME, LMIC Source: CME, LMIC Live daily cattle futures prices were primarily lower over the week with bigger losses on Friday to push prices lower; week-over-week. The August-to-October contracts declined between US$3.175 per cwt and US$4.175 per cwt over the week. The October contract declined US$4.175 per cwt to settle Friday a US$ per cwt; while the December contract declined US$3.425 per cwt to settle Friday at US$ per cwt. Fed and Non-fed Cattle August 24, Steers (Alberta) Live Rail Cows (Alberta) 2018 $ $ to $ August 17, 2018 $ $ to $ Over Week -$1.54 -$0.25 to -$2.00 D1,2 Live $87.92 $ $0.21 D3 Live $79.36 $ $0.36 Rail $ $ N/C Source: Canfax. (n/a = not available, n/c = no change) Prices for liveweight, non-fed cattle in Alberta were mixed over the week but overall steady. The price of D1,2 slaughter cows declined $0.21 per cwt to average $87.92 per cwt; while the price of D3 slaughter cows increased $0.36 per cwt to average $79.36 per cwt over the week. 2

3 Fed cattle prices for Alberta fed steers were reported to average $ per cwt over the week, a price decline of $1.54 per cwt from the previous week. Fed cattle prices for Alberta fed steers moved higher in early July before declining the last few weeks. Prices are at their lowest level in 2018 and are expected to trend lower into September as per normal seasonal cycles. Western Canadian slaughter cattle prices are provided by Canfax and cannot be redistributed without their permission. The live (FOB feedlot) weighted average 5-area (Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado and Iowa/Minnesota) weekly fed steer price in the U.S. was reported at US$ per cwt, down US$0.89 per cwt or 0.8 per cent from US$ per cwt the previous week; but up 2.1 per cent from US$ per cwt the same week a year ago. The dressed (delivered basis) price for U.S. steers delivered to plants in the 5-area was reported at US$ per cwt, down US$0.32 per cwt or 0.2 per cent from US$ per cwt the previous week, but up 1.8 per cent from US$ per cwt the same week a year ago. The Cattle on Feed Report was released on Friday August 24, by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for the August 1 inventory numbers. August 1, 2017 and 2018, Cattle on Feed (in U.S. feedlots with 1,000+ capacity) Per cent of previous year On feed July 1 10,821,000 11,287, Placed during July 1,615,000 1,742, Marketed during July 1,784,000 1,873, Other disappearance during July 48,000 63, On feed August 1 10,604,000 11,093, Source: USDA The USDA Cattle on Feed (COF) report indicated that the number of cattle placed on feed in July 2018 was million head, up almost eight per cent from million head in July 2017, but down over three per cent from million head placed in June The number of fed cattle marketed in July 2018 was million head, up five per cent from million head in July 2017, but down over six per cent from million head marketed in June The July 2018 cattle placements were per cent of the July 2017 numbers which were over two per cent higher than the average trade estimates (105.5 per cent). The cattle marketed in July 2018 were per cent of the July 2017 numbers; which were closely in line with the average trade estimates (104.9 per cent). The USDA cattle on feed numbers for August 1, 2018 were million head, up 4.6 per cent from the August 2017 inventory numbers of million head, but down 1.7 per cent from million head in July The USDA year-over-year numbers were slightly higher than the average trade estimates (104.4 per cent). The USDA numbers were overall in-line with the average trade estimates except the higher July 2018 cattle placements which were over two per cent higher. Inventory numbers continue to be on the high side showing high cattle on feed numbers which will be coming to the fed market down the road. 3

4 Canadian Livestock Inventory Estimates Statistics Canada reported that total cattle on Canadian farms as of July 1, 2018 totalled million head, down 0.8 per cent or 100,000 head from million head on July 1, Cattle on beef operations totaled million head, down 1.4 per cent from million head a year ago. The number of beef cows on Canadian farms as of July 1, 2018 totalled million head, down 1.2 per cent from million head on July 1, In Saskatchewan the total cattle on farms as of July 1, 2018 totalled million head, down 1.1 per cent from million head as of July 1, Total Saskatchewan beef cow numbers as of July 1, 2018 totalled million head, down 1.4 per cent from million head from July Total beef heifers for replacements on cow calf operations totalled 178,300 head, up 2.1 per cent to 174,600 head; from a year ago. Total steers on beef operations as of July 1, 2018 in Saskatchewan on farm: one year and older declined 3.0 per cent to 177,500 head, year-over-year. Calves under one year on beef operations in Saskatchewan declined 0.8 per cent to 913,700 head, year-over-year. USDA Cold Storage Numbers USDA released the latest U.S. cold storage numbers on August 22, The United States beef stocks in cold storage totaled million lb. on July 31, 2018, up 8.1 per cent from million lb. on June 30, 2018, but up 12.3 per cent from a year ago on July 31, U.S. beef stocks in cold storage at the end of July 2018 were above the 14-year average for July, and established a new monthly high for July over the last 14 years. U.S. choice beef cutout prices ( lb.) for the week ending August 25, 2018 averaged US$ per cwt over the week, up US$4.16 per cwt or 2.0 per cent from US$ per cwt the previous week, and up 11.2 per cent from US$ per cwt the same week a year ago. Beef cutout values have been relatively steady over the summer compared to competing meats which have declined. Higher U.S. pork supplies this fall combined with continued trade issues with China could push domestic hog prices lower and put more pressure on competing meat prices. Source: LMIC 4

5 Source: LMIC Friday Price Information Product Week of: (August 24, 2018) Week of: (August 17, 2018) Week of: (August 25, 2017) Canadian Dollar (closing rate US$) U.S. Cash Cattle Thurs. Feeder Cattle (FC) Index (US$ per cwt) Seven-day Weighted Average FC Index Wt. (lb.) Live Fed 5-area Steer Price (US$ per cwt) Feed Grains Barley Lethbridge ($/tonne) $255 $ $ ($ per bu.) mid-point price $5.55 $5.54 $4.25 Corn Iowa State Average (CDN$/tonne)* (US$ per bu.) Futures Omaha, NE (CDN$/tonne)* (US$ per bu.) September Corn (US$ per bu.) 3.48 ½ 3.64 ¼ 3.38 ¾ December Corn (US$ per bu.) 3.62 ¾ 3.78 ¾ 3.53 ½ August Live Cattle (US$ per cwt) October Live Cattle (US$ per cwt) August Feeder Cattle (US$ per cwt) October Feeder Cattle (US$ per cwt) Sources: Bank of Canada, Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ICE Futures Canada and USDA Livestock & Grain Market News * conversion to CDN$ is based on Friday s CDN$ closing rate. 5

6 U.S. beef production for the week ending August 25, 2018 was estimated at million lb., down 3.3 per cent from million lb. the previous week, and down 2.0 per cent from million lb. the same week a year ago. For more information contact: Brad Marceniuk, PAg. Provincial Livestock Economist brad.marceniuk@gov.sk.ca 6