The 6 th meeting of the GEOSS Asia Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) International Coordination Group (ICG)

Transcription

1 The 4 th GEOSS Asia Pacific Symposium (GEOSS-AP4) The 6 th meeting of the GEOSS Asia Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) International Coordination Group (ICG) March 2010, Sanur Paradise Plaza, Bali, Indonesia Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Measures in Cambodia Prepare by: Long Saravuth/Hydrologist Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology Cambodia

2 Content 1-Introduction 2-Irrigation and Agriculture background 3-Current and Future Climate in Cambodia 4-Impact and Vulnerability 5-Adaptation measures 6-Conclusion

3 1-Cambodian Climate Tropical monsoon with distinct rainy (May to October) and dry (November to May) seasons Rainy season and dry season average max. temperature is around 28 o C and the average min. temp around 22 o C Max. temp. exceeding 38 o C are recorded every year during the dry season and min. temp. rarely fall below 10 o C.

4 Average annual rainfall ( )

5 GEOSS/AWCI 33 stations cooperated by UT/DHRW AWS 03 station SM 11 stations RR 21 stations

6 2- Irrigation Background -Cambodia has put emphasis to give priority to the rehabilitation, construction, maintenance with efficient management of agriculture infrastructure to increase irrigated area and boost agricultural production. - The current irrigated area: ha in dry season and ha in wet season

7 (Source: Review on Nationwide Irrigation Development in Cambodia)

8 Agriculture Background -The agriculture land in Cambodia has been achieved mainly by extension of farmland. Currently, the arable land extends to about 3.1 million ha, of which only 2.51 million ha 81.24% are planted with paddy and diversity of crops -The develop of the agriculture sector over the last five years severely affected by adverse climatic conditions that have ranged from severe flooding to drought over the years.

9 Distribution of Agriculture Land in Cambodia in 2008 Recession rice (8%), surrounding Tonle Sap Rice alone contribute to about 80% of total agriculture production Rainfed WS rice (85%) Lake/Main Rivers Agricultural lands Grid PRECIS

10 3-Current and Future Climate of Cambodia Does Cambodian Climate Change? Source Second National Communication Under the UNFCCC UNDP and KINGDOM OF CAMBODIA

11 WS rainfall surrounding Tonle Sap Lake tended to Increase Rainfall Trend Analysis ( )

12 GCMs : Resolution 1 o x1 o bccr_bcm2_0 cccma_cgcm3_1 cnrm_cm3 gfdl_cm2_0 gfdl_cm2_1 giss_model_e_r inmcm3_0 ipsl_cm4 miroc3_2_medres miub_echo_g mpi_echam5 mri_cgcm2_3_2a ukmo_hadcm3 ukmo_hadgem1 GCM Model was run by Yuji Masutomi from Climate Risk Assessment Division, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki , Japan

13 SRESA2: Trend of rainfall change based on 14 GCMs All models predict rainfall will increase All models predict rainfall will decrease

14 SRESB1: Trend of rainfall change based on 14 GCMs All models predict rainfall will increase All models predict rainfall will decrease

15 Under High Emission Scenarios (A2), regional rainfall surrounding Tonle Sap Lake will continue to increase with increasing variability Based on PRECIS Model

16 Key message Under high emission scenarios (SRESA2) DS rainfalls DJF and MAM will decrease with high probability and WS JJA and SON rainfall may increase but with lower probability than the DS rainfall. This suggests that the onset of rainy season may delay in the future under this emission scenario. WS rainfall DJF will decrease until 2025 and then increase again in 2050 and 2080 Under low emission scenarios (SRESB1) Similar with SRESA2 DS rainfall will increase but with lower probability. Different with SRESA2, WS rainfall DJF will increase in 2025 and then decrease again in 2050 and 2080

17 4-Impact and Vulnerability Does Cambodian seriously affected by climate change?

18 Vulnerable sub-sector in Agriculture to climate hazards Based on Survey at Prey Veng, the most vulnerable province to climate hazards, rice farming is the most vulnerable sub-sector to climate hazards Flood Drought Based on interview with 417 respondents Rice contribute to about 80% of total agriculture commodities production

19 Farmers perception on change in drought and flood severity? Flood frequency and intensity Drought severity increase? Based on Survey at Prey Veng Province

20 How CV and CC will affect Agriculture? The increase in future rainfall variability will have two direct impact on agriculture production: Affect yield variability Increase crop production loss due to the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

21 2080 Impact of CC on Rice Yield

22 Production Loss due to CC Compare to current production ~ 7 Mton

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28 5-Adaptation measures

29 Develop long term strategy for Improvement of rice productivity Establishment and rehabilitation of irrigation facilities to increase irrigated area Expanding new rice planting area to low risk area Impact of the implementation of the strategies Rice productivity: increased by 10%, 20% and 30% from current level Change farming practices and incorporate new technology Production loss due to climate change can be compensated by among others increasing crop productivity, planting index, new planting areas

30 6-Conclusion 1-To improve water resources management by developing, rehabilitatating/upgrading small & meduim scale sea polder protection, irrigation schemes and other water management infrastructure. 2-Strengthen capacity building of communities and institutions to plan, implement, manage, maintain such infrastructures and to build awareness on climate change issues and adaptation at all stackeholders, water user and affected communities. 3-To Improved agricultural support services to the beneficiary water users adopted to climate change. 4-Need to study on climate change impact assessment and adaptation in the fields of the water resources and Agriculture.

31 THANK YOU! Dialogue on the Water Environmental Governance in Cambodia, September 2008