Central Bank of Nigeria Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey Report

Transcription

1 Central Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers (PMI) Survey Report Statistics Department September 2017

2 1.0 Introduction PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) SEPTEMBER 2017 REPORT The September 2017 PMI was conducted by the Statistics Department the Central Bank Nigeria during the period September 11-15, The respondents were purchasing and supply executives manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria (2 states in each geopolitical zone and the Federal Capital Territory, Fig. 1). A total 1,625 responses were received from a sample 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate 83.3 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Sokoto Zamfara Katsina Kano Jigawa Yobe Borno Kebbi Kaduna Bauchi Gombe Niger Adamawa Oyo Ogun Lagos Kwara Osun Ekiti Ondo Edo Kogi FCT Nasarawa Benue Plateau Taraba Delta Imo Abia Cross River Akwa Ibom Fig. 1: Map Nigeria with showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on survey responses indicating the changes in the level business activities in the current month compared with the preceding month. For each the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage responses with positive change plus one-half the percentage those reporting no change, except for supplier delivery time, which is computed as the percentage responses with negative change plus onehalf the percentage those reporting no change. The composite PMI for the manufacturing sector is computed as the weighted average five diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector is 1

3 Sep '16 Points computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventory, with equal weights 25% each. A composite PMI above s indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, s indicates no change and below s indicates that it is generally contracting. The subsectors reporting growth are listed in the order highest September '17 '17 to lowest growth, while those reporting Raw materials Inventories contraction are listed in the order the highest to the lowest contraction. Employment level 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report Supplier deliveries New orders Production level Overall Manufacturing PMI Production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw material inventories growing at a faster rate in September Fig. 2: Manufacturing PMI at a glance The Manufacturing PMI stood at 55.3 index points in September 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the sixth consecutive month (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Fourteen the sixteen subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: appliances & components; electrical equipment; chemical & pharmaceutical products; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; plastics & rubber products; food, beverage & tobacco products; furniture & related products; transportation equipment; cement; paper products; computer & electronic products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear and fabricated metal products. The primary metal and petroleum & coal products subsectors contracted in the review month Overall Manufacturing PMI Fig. 3: Manufacturing PMI

4 Sep '16 Sep '16 Sep ' Production Level The production level index for the manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month in September At 58.8 points, the index indicated an increase in production at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Thirteen the sixteen manufacturing subsectors recorded increase, while three subsectors declined during the review month (Fig. 4 and Table 2) Production Level 58.8 Fig. 4: production index New Orders New Orders At 53.5 points, the new orders index grew for the sixth consecutive month. Ten subsectors reported growth, while six subsectors contracted in the month September, 2017 (Fig. 5 and Table 3) Fig. 5: new orders index Supplier Delivery Time 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time 55.4 The supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sector, at 55.4 points in September 2017, rose for the fourth consecutive month. Twelve subsectors recorded improved suppliers delivery time, two remained unchanged while two subsectors recorded delayed delivery time (Fig. 6 and Table 4). Fig. 6: supplier delivery time index 3

5 Sep '16 Sep ' Employment Level Employment Level The employment level index in September 2017 stood at 52.8 points, indicating growth in employment level for the fifth consecutive month. Of the sixteen subsectors, six recorded growth, four remained unchanged while the other six subsectors recorded decline in employment level (Fig. 7 and Table 5) Fig 7: manufacturing employment 2.5 Raw Materials Inventories At 56.4 points, raw materials inventories index grew for the sixth consecutive month, and at a faster rate when compared to its level in Twelve the sixteen subsectors recorded growth, one remained unchanged and the remaining three subsectors recorded decline in inventories (Fig. 8 and Table 6) Raw Materials Inventory Fig. 8: raw material inventory index Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Inventories September '17 '17 Level employment Business activity, new orders, employment level and inventory growing at a faster rate in September 2017 Level new orders Business Activity Overall Non-manufacturing PMI Fig. 9: Non-Manufacturing PMI at a glance 4

6 Sep '16 Sep '16 The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 54.9 points in September 2017, indicating growth in Non-manufacturing PMI for the fifth consecutive month. Of the eighteen nonmanufacturing subsectors, fifteen recorded growth in the following order: utilities; agriculture; health care & social assistance; finance & insurance; transportation & warehousing; Overall Non-manufacturing PMI electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning 54.9 supply; repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles; public administration; wholesale/retail trade; water supply, sewage & waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment & recreation; information & communication; accommodation & food services; real estate rental & leasing. The construction; management companies; and pressional, scientific & technical services Fig. 10: Non-manufacturing PMI sub sectors recorded contraction in the review period (Fig. 10 and Table 7) Business Activity Business Activity 56.8 The business activity index rose marginally to 56.8 points in September 2017, indicating growth for the sixth consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the preceding month. Fourteen subsectors recorded growth in business activity, two remained unchanged and two declined in the review month (Fig 11 and Table 8) Fig. 11: business activities index 5

7 Sep '16 Sep '16 Sep ' New Orders New orders index at 55.4 points grew in September 2017 for the sixth consecutive month. Of the eighteen subsectors, thirteen reported growth, three remained unchanged while two recorded declines (Fig. 12 and Table 9) New orders 55.4 Fig. 12: new orders index 3.3 Employment Level The employment level for the nonmanufacturing sector stood at 54.7 points, indicating growth in employment for the fifth consecutive month. Fifteen subsectors recorded growth in the review month, while the remaining three subsectors declined (Fig. 13 and Table 10) Employment Level 54.7 Fig. 13: non-manufacturing employment 3.4 Non-manufacturing Inventory At 52.9 points, non-manufacturing inventory index grew for the fifth consecutive month, indicating growth in inventories in the review period. Twelve subsectors recorded higher inventory, three remained unchanged, while three subsectors recorded lower inventory in September, 2017 (Fig. 14 and Table 11) Inventory 52.9 Fig. 14: non-manufacturing inventory index 6

8 Table 1: Manufacturing at a Glance * APPENDICES * ** Composite PMI \ Growing Faster 6 Production level Growing Faster 7 New orders Growing Faster 6 Supplier delivery time Growing Faster 4 Employment level Growing Faster 5 Raw materials/wip Inventory Growing Faster 6 New Export Orders Declining Faster 31 Output Prices Growing Slower 21 Input Prices Growing Faster 39 Quantity Purchases Declining Slower 6 Outstanding Business/Backlog Work Growing From Contraction 1 Stock Finished Goods Growing Slower 2 Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Appliances & components Growing Faster 10 Cement Growing Faster 3 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Faster 3 Computer & electronic products Growing Slower 4 Electrical equipment Growing Faster 6 Fabricated metal products Growing From Contraction 1 Food, beverage & tobacco products Growing Faster 12 Furniture & related products Growing Faster 2 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing Faster 2 Paper products Growing Slower 5 Petroleum & coal products Declining Faster 3 Plastics & rubber products Growing Faster 2 Primary metal Declining Flat 2 Printing & related support activities Growing Faster 3 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Growing Slower 7 Transportation equipment Growing From Contraction 1 \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number month moving in current direction Table 2: Production at a Glance 7

9 PRODUCTION PMI Growing Faster 7 Appliances & components Growing Slower 9 Cement Growing Faster 7 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Flat 3 Computer & electronic products Growing Slower 7 Electrical equipment Growing Faster 6 Fabricated metal products Declining From Expansion 1 Food, beverage & tobacco products Growing Faster 12 Furniture & related products Growing Faster 7 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing Faster 3 Paper products Growing From No 1 Petroleum & coal products Declining Slower 3 Plastics & rubber products Growing From Contraction 1 Primary metal Declining Faster 2 Printing & related support activities Growing Faster 6 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Growing Slower 7 Transportation equipment Growing From Contraction 1 Table 3: New Orders at a Glance NEW ORDERS PMI Growing Faster 6 Appliances & components Growing From Contraction 1 Cement Growing From Contraction 1 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Faster 3 Computer & electronic products Growing Slower 2 Electrical equipment Growing From Contraction 1 Fabricated metal products Declining Slower 3 Food, beverage & tobacco products Growing Faster 12 Furniture & related products Growing From No 1 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing From Contraction 1 Paper products Declining From Expansion 1 Petroleum & coal products Declining Faster 3 Plastics & rubber products Growing From Contraction 1 Primary metal Declining Slower 2 Printing & related support activities Growing Slower 3 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Declining From Expansion 1 Transportation equipment Declining Flat 3 Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance 8

10 SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Growing Faster 4 Appliances & components No From Expansion 1 Cement Growing Slower 4 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Faster 4 Computer & electronic products No From Expansion 1 Electrical equipment Growing Slower 9 Fabricated metal products Growing Faster 3 Food, beverage & tobacco products Growing From Contraction 1 Furniture & related products Growing From Contraction 1 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing Slower 3 Paper products Growing Slower 2 Petroleum & coal products Declining From Expansion 1 Plastics & rubber products Growing From Contraction 1 Primary metal Declining From No 1 Printing & related support activities Growing From Contraction 1 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Growing From Contraction 1 Transportation equipment Growing From No 1 Table 5: Employment Level at a Glance EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Growing Faster 5 Appliances & components Declining From No 1 Cement No From Contraction 1 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Slower 3 Computer & electronic products Declining From Expansion 1 Electrical equipment 0.0 No Flat 3 Fabricated metal products Declining Slower 2 Food, beverage & tobacco products Declining From Expansion 1 Furniture & related products No From Expansion 1 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing From Contraction 1 Paper products Growing Faster 5 Petroleum & coal products Declining From No 1 Plastics & rubber products Growing From No 1 Primary metal Growing From Contraction 1 Printing & related support activities Growing Faster 2 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Declining From Expansion 1 Transportation equipment 0.0 No From Contraction 1 Table 6: Raw Materials Inventory at a Glance 9

11 RAW MATERIALS INVENTORY PMI Growing Faster 6 Appliances & components Growing Flat 10 Cement Growing Faster 3 Chemical & pharmaceutical products Growing Faster 4 Computer & electronic products Declining From Expansion 1 Electrical equipment Growing From Contraction 1 Fabricated metal products Growing Faster 2 Food, beverage & tobacco products Growing Faster 12 Furniture & related products Growing From Contraction 1 Nonmetallic mineral products Growing Slower 2 Paper products Growing Slower 5 Petroleum & coal products Growing Faster 2 Plastics & rubber products Growing Slower 2 Primary metal Declining From No 1 Printing & related support activities Growing Slower 3 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Declining From Expansion 1 Transportation equipment No From Expansion 1 10

12 Table 7: Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Composite PMI \ Growing Faster 5 Business Activity Growing Faster 6 Level new orders/customers/incoming business Growing Faster 6 Level employment Growing Faster 5 Inventory Growing Faster 5 Average price Inputs (volume weighted) Growing Faster 23 Level outstanding business/ Backlog work Declining Faster 39 New Exports orders Declining Faster 39 Imports Declining Slower 39 Inventory (sentiments) Declining Slower 39 Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Growing Slower 5 Agriculture Growing Faster 16 Arts, entertainment & recreation Growing Faster 2 Construction Declining Faster 28 Educational services Growing Faster 10 Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Growing Faster 7 Finance & insurance Growing Slower 7 Health care & social assistance Growing Slower 5 Information & communication Growing Slower 6 Management companies Declining Faster 2 Pressional, scientific, & technical services Declining From Expansion 1 Public administration Growing Slower 3 Real estate rental & leasing Growing From Contraction 1 Repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles Growing Faster 4 Transportation & warehousing Growing Faster 7 Utilities Growing Faster 6 Water supply, sewage & waste management Growing Faster 7 Wholesale/Retail trade Growing Faster 4 \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories Table 8: Business activity at a Glance BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Growing Faster 6 Accommodation & food services Growing Slower 5 Agriculture Growing Slower 16 Arts, entertainment & recreation Growing From Contraction 1 Construction No From Expansion 1 Educational services Growing From No 1 Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Growing Slower 7 Finance & insurance Growing Faster 6 Health care & social assistance Growing Slower 7 Information & communication Growing Slower 6 Management companies Declining From No 1 Pressional, scientific, & technical services No From Contraction 1 Public administration Declining From Expansion 1 Real estate rental & leasing Growing From Contraction 1 Repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles Growing Faster 6 Transportation & warehousing Growing Slower 6 Utilities Growing Faster 6 Water supply, sewage & waste management 10.0 Growing From No 1 Wholesale/Retail trade Growing Slower 5 11

13 Table 9: New Orders at a Glance NEW ORDERS PMI Growing Faster 6 Accommodation & food services No From Expansion 1 Agriculture Growing Faster 3 Arts, entertainment & recreation Growing From Contraction 1 Construction Declining Slower 28 Educational services Growing From Contraction 1 Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Growing Faster 7 Finance & insurance Growing Slower 7 Health care & social assistance Growing Faster 4 Information & communication Growing Slower 6 Management companies No From Contraction 1 Pressional, scientific, & technical services No From Expansion 1 Public administration Growing Faster 3 Real estate rental & leasing Declining Slower 2 Repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles Growing Faster 4 Transportation & warehousing Growing Faster 7 Utilities Growing Faster 6 Water supply, sewage & waste management Growing From No 1 Wholesale/Retail trade Growing Faster 4 Table 10: Employment at a Glance 12

14 EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Growing Faster 5 Accommodation & food services Growing Slower 2 Agriculture Growing Faster 5 Arts, entertainment & recreation Growing Slower 5 Construction Declining From Expansion 1 Educational services Growing Slower 9 Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Growing Faster 2 Finance & insurance Growing Slower 4 Health care & social assistance Growing Faster 4 Information & communication Growing Slower 5 Management companies Declining From No 1 Pressional, scientific, & technical services Growing Slower 4 Public administration Declining From Expansion 1 Real estate rental & leasing Growing From Contraction 1 Repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles Growing Slower 4 Transportation & warehousing Growing Slower 7 Utilities Growing Slower 6 Water supply, sewage & waste management Growing From Contraction 1 Wholesale/Retail trade Growing Faster 4 Table 11: Inventory at a Glance INVENTORY PMI Growing Faster 5 Accommodation & food services Growing Slower 2 Agriculture Growing Slower 6 Arts, entertainment & recreation Declining From Expansion 1 Construction Declining Faster 3 Educational services Growing From Contraction 1 Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply No From Expansion 1 Finance & insurance Growing Faster 4 Health care & social assistance Growing Slower 5 Information & communication Growing Slower 3 Management companies Growing From No 1 Pressional, scientific, & technical services Declining Faster 2 Public administration Growing Faster 3 Real estate rental & leasing No From Contraction 1 Repair, maintenance/washing motor vehicles Growing Faster 3 Transportation & warehousing Growing From Contraction 1 Utilities Growing From No 1 Water supply, sewage & waste management No From Expansion 1 Wholesale/Retail trade Growing Faster 2 Table 12: Manufacturing PMI Data 13

15 Month COMPOSITE PMI Production Level New Orders Supplier Delivery Time Employment Level Raw Materials Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity Purchases Backlog Work Stock Finished Goods Jul ' Aug ' Sep ' Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' Jan ' Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May ' Jun ' Jul ' Aug ' Sep ' Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' Jan Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May ' Jun ' Jul ' Aug ' Sep ' Table 13: Non-Manufacturing PMI Data 14

16 Month COMPOSITE PMI Business Activity New orders Employmen t Level Inventory Average Input Price Backlog Work New Exports Orders Imports Inventories (sentiment) Jul ' Aug ' Sep ' Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' Jan ' Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May ' Jun ' Jul ' Aug ' Sep ' Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' Jan Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May ' Jun ' Jul ' Aug ' Sep '