Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management

Transcription

1 Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management Porranee Thanapakpawin Surajate Boonya-Aroonnet Pintip Vajarothai Aungkana Pratumthong Royol Chitradon Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) Ministry of Science and Technology, Thailand 1

2 Content The changing water situation: Impacts from Climate change Management challenges Framework for technology needs assessment Prioritized adaptation technologies

3 annual rainfall anomaly (mm) compared to average average 1,374 mm./year Rainfall has been above average in the past decade Greater inter-annual variability compared to past 3

4 Monthly rainfall map: March compared to average Average mm (38.7) (58.5) (36.1) (39.3) (80.9) (19.2) (145.7) (mm/month) Greater change of monthly rainfall timing, location, and intensity (e.g. Season change)

5 Monthly rainfall map: May compared to average Average (174.1) (196.4) (270.5) (204.2) (209.9) (111.0) (212.0) mm (mm/month)

6 Monthly rainfall map: August compared to average Average (219.2) (244.8) (219.2) (187.6) (197.3) (299.8) (288.8) mm (mm/month)

7 Monthly rainfall map: September compared to average Average (236.0) (248.7) (233.1) (268.5) (227.2) (222.4) (314.9) mm (mm/month)

8 Flood risk (left) and drought risk (right) areas Several areas experience both flood & drought problems Source: Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

9 Thailand 2011 Flood Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet Photo: thairath.co.th Photo: Channel 3 9

10 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked to Climate change El Nino and La Nina alternates more frequently. Expect higher climate variability Source: Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA

11 Future projection of annual runoff, relative to Project increased rainfall 11 ท มา: IPCC (2551)

12 Management challenges: Thailand Water Infrastructure Only 6% of rainfall is collected in large reservoirs High inter-annual reservoir inflow variability (19% nation-wide, 20-30% regionally) Only 13% of agricultural areas is irrigated

13 Goal of Thailand WRM & our technology needs Solve both flood & drought problems together Build water security for all user sectors - Macro level: Irrigated agriculture, Industry, Urban areas - Micro level: Rain-fed agriculture Targets of technology needs: - Secure capitol water supply through storage & distribution - Build management flexibility in all climate & demand scenarios - Minimize disaster risks & impacts - Build knowledge/know-how and data 13

14 Framework for prioritizing adaptation technologies 14

15 Prioritized echnology Multi Criteria Review possible technologies Objectives The process for technology prioritization Technology Group (High Impact) (Low Impact) Analyze from output/outcome Criteria Analyze from SWOT Internal funding Domestic development High Impact Funding source High SWOT External funding/ Technology transfer High/Low Impact Low SWOT 15

16 Technology needs for macro-management Rainfall Now 2 month 4 month Seasonal climate projection (3-7 months) Reservoir 5 Reservoir 4 Pond 1 Flood sensorweb (Event detection, monitoring, and decision support system ) Reservoir 3 Reservoir 6 Reservoir 1 Reservoir 2 Networking of water infrastructures & management 16

17 Community Water Resource Management (CWRM): Secure water through integrated supply and demand management Application of science, technology & innovation Knowledge management Capacity & collaborative network building 17

18 Success story of CWRM in a village in NE Thailand Yearly Family Data* (Thai Baht) Before (with CWRM) 2009 (with Integrated Farming) 2010 (CWRM + Integrated Farming) INCOME 103,000 1,544,764 2,227,354 2,474,234 4,079,354 Rice Field 103, , , , ,370 Farming - 917, , ,220 1,257,800 Integrated farming - 209, ,794 1,063,384 1,977,184 Expenditure 114, ,496 1,067, ,341 1,479,606 Net Income -11, ,268 1,159,903 1,583,893 2,599,747 Accumulating debt decreased from 2.6 million THB to 1.84 million THB in 2009 *collected from 15 households in

19 Summary Goal of Thailand WRM: Water & agricultural security Technology needs: Flexible infrastructures & Better management: planning, operation & disaster management Macro-management: - Networking of water infrastructures & management - Seasonal climate projection (3-7 months) - Flood sensorweb Micro-management: CWRM as a key risk-based adaptation approach to cope with climate variability & build sustainable agriculture 19

20 Integration of technology use Risk assessment Reservoir networking Water flow network Planning Forecasting/ Modeling Survey/observation Network & Clustering Operation Disaster management Telemeter data Remote sensing/ GIS Oceanic data Flash flood & landslide warning Users 20