Tennessee Market Highlights

Transcription

1 Tennessee Market Highlights April 27, 2018 Number: 17 Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago Slaughter Cows Steady Slaughter Bulls $1 lower Feeder Steers Under 600 lbs steady to $2 lower, 600 lbs and over $1 to $5 higher Feeder Heifers Unevenly steady Feeder Cattle Index Wednesday s index: $ Fed Cattle The 5-area live price of $ is down $0.47. The dressed price is up $6.72 at $ Corn July closed at $3.98 a bushel, up 13 cents since last Friday. Soybeans July closed at $10.56 a bushel, up 16 cents since last Friday. Wheat July closed at $4.98 a bushel, up 21 cents since last Friday. Cotton July closed at cents per lb, down 0.22 cents since last Friday. Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith FED CATTLE: Fed cattle traded mostly $2 to $3 higher compared to a week ago on a live basis. Prices on a live basis were mainly $124 while dressed trade was not well established. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $ live, down $0.47 from last week and $ dressed, up $6.72 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $ live and $ dressed. The talk around cattle pens is not about how impressive live cattle prices are but rather how steep a discount June live cattle futures are relative to current cash prices. The live cattle market is experiencing a record strong basis for the June contract. Currently, cash live cattle trade is $17 per hundredweight higher than where the June contract is trading. If futures were assumed to be correct then it will take a precipitous decline in live cattle prices the next two months to have convergence of the futures price and cash prices. It is difficult to say how convergence will occur, but both prices are likely to move some. In the meantime, cattle feeders are likely to take advantage of the strong basis on hedged cattle. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $ up $1.14 from Thursday and up $9.74 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $ up $0.10 from Thursday and up $4.77 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $16.71 compared to $11.74 a week ago. Wholesale beef prices surged this week with strength in the loin and rib primal driving prices higher. The price strength in Choice boxes is largely due to grilling season demand as this will be the first weekend of the year where most of the United States has favorable enough weather to throw beef on the grill. Demand for Choice beef was fair to good with the daily load count averaging nearly 71 loads per day for Monday thru Thursday. One load is equivalent to 40,000 pounds resulting in over 11.3 million pounds of Choice beef being traded in a four day period. Similarly, the Select beef average daily load count for Monday thru Thursday was 37.5 loads accounting for 6 million pounds of beef trade with scheduled delivery in the next three weeks. The quantity of beef coming to market in the next couple of months is sure to escalate as the industry works through calf fed animals and animals that departed winter grazing prematurely. Expected increases in quantity supplied has some experts concerned, but strong consumer demand should absorb the production. OUTLOOK: Based on Tennessee weekly auction market averages, steers weighing less than 600 pounds were steady to $2 lower compared to a week ago while steers weighing 600 pounds or more were $1 to $5 higher. Heifer prices were unevenly steady compared to last week. The spring run for grass cattle is coming to a close in the Southeastern United States. There are a few remaining orders for cattle, but orders are thinning as many producers have stocked pastures. Alternatively, the orders for cattle to be placed on grass in the Southern Plains may have just got a boost with substantial rainfall this week. It is not as if this week s rain will result in forage production immediately, but it will go a long way to rejuvenating native grass pastures that have been managed through severe drought conditions. Thus, the lightweight calf market could find extended support into May if producers in the Southern Plains start placing orders to purchase calves for summer grazing. This may have major implications for fall calving herd managers who have recently weaned calves or will wean calves in the next few weeks. Weaning time is a decision point in which one can sell or choose to add weight. It is important to consider the value of the calves at weaning and what they are ex- (Continued on page 2)

2 Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith (Continued from page 1) pected to be worth after a backgrounding phase. If the futures market is any indication, producers can expect yearling cattle prices to escalate $6 to $7 between May and August which may or may not be enough to make it worth one s time and effort. The futures market has already priced in a seasonal price increase for feeder cattle which may or may not come to fruition. The basic thought is that the seasonal tendency will remain and feeder cattle prices will move higher from May through August. At this point there is very little reason to be bearish on this price move expectation. In actuality, one might have a tendency to be a little bullish towards this market since prices have held serve with strong cattle on feed numbers and several international trade issues. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: A question was asked this week concerning why the trends for Tennessee feeder cattle in this report differed from the trends reported by USDA Market News in their weekly summary released on Mondays. The main difference is the trends used here are from auctions taking place from the previous Friday thru Thursday while Market News is utilizing auctions in a calendar week. The primary difference is from Saturday auctions in the state. Additionally, trends for extremely light and heavy cattle are not considered in this report due to the low number of cattle in the data set. It is difficult to set a trend with small numbers and quality can end up being the price difference instead of a change in the market. Regardless of where the trends are reported, it is important for producers to look at the individual weight classes and the change from one week to the next. This will help one understand how seasonality plays into the market. Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN FRIDAY S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle June $ ; August $ ; October $ ; Feeder cattle May $ ; August $ ; September $ ; October $ ; May corn closed at $3.90 up $0.04 from Thursday. Milk Futures Thursday, April 26, 2018 Month Class III Close Class IV Close Apr May June July Aug Average Daily Slaughter Cattle Hogs Number of head This week (4 days) 118, ,750 Last week (4 days) 117, ,500 Year ago (4 days) 117, ,500 This week as percentage of Week ago (%) 101% 100% Year ago (%) 101% 105% USDA Box Beef Cutout Value Choice 1-3 Select lbs lbs $/cwt - Thursday Last Week Year ago Change from week ago Change from year ago

3 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Overview Corn, soybeans, and wheat were up; cotton was down for the week. Delayed planting has pushed futures prices higher, however planting progress will be monitored closely over the weekend and prices could retreat if the weather allows for substantial progress in spring field work and planting. With the size and speed of today s equipment, acres can be tilled/sprayed/planted very quickly, so look for continued volatility for the next 2-3 weeks as weather dictates progress in fields across the Corn Belt and Mid-South. The other major market mover remains export sales. Export sales of corn and soybeans were down noticeably this week. The reduced sales could be an anomaly that will be rectified in the coming weeks or the start of a trend in reduced export demand. Wheat and cotton export sales were up from last week. Cotton remains well above the pace required to meet the USDA s marketing year goal. The only remaining concern (although it is being reduced with strong week-over-week shipments) for cotton exports is the export sales to shipment pace. Although wheat had strong export sales this week, wheat exports remain well behind the pace needed to meet the USDA s marketing year projection. The potential for retaliatory Chinese tariffs on corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat has appeared to subsided, for now. Exports would be adversely effected should a tariff be imposed (It is important to note that the 25% retaliatory tariffs announced by China have not been imposed on soybeans, corn, cotton, and wheat at this time). Corn Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) strengthened at Northwest Barge Points and Memphis and weakened at Northwest, Upper-middle, and Lower-middle Tennessee. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 11 under to 35 over the May futures contract with an average of 6 over at the end of the week. May 2018 corn futures closed at $3.89, up 13 cents since last Friday. July 2018 corn futures closed at $3.98, up 13 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2018 corn futures traded between $3.85 and $3.99. Corn net sales reported by exporters from April were below expectations with net sales of 27.4 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 3.0 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were up from last week at 67.0 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 88% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 88%. Ethanol production for the week ending April 20 was million barrels per day, down 24,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were million barrels, up 357,000 barrels. Jul/Sept and Jul/Dec future spreads were 7 and 16 cents, respectively. The Crop Progress report estimated corn planted at 5% compared to 3% last week, 15% last year, and a 5-year average of 14%. In Tennessee, corn planted was estimated at 30% compared to 11% last week, 42% last year, and a 5-year average of 34%. In Tennessee, September 2018 corn cash forward contracts averaged $3.90 with a range of $3.75 to $4.23. September 2018 corn futures closed at $4.05, up 12 cents since last Friday. December 2018 corn futures closed at $4.14, up 12 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.20 December 2018 Put Option costing 31 cents establishing a $3.89 futures floor. (Continued on page 4) 3

4 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Soybeans Average soybean basis weakened at Memphis and strengthened or remained unchanged at Northwest Barge Points, Northwest, Lower-middle, and Upper-middle Tennessee. Basis ranged from 42 under to 11 over the May futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 11 over the May futures contract. May 2018 soybean futures closed at $10.45, up 17 cents since last Friday. July 2018 soybean futures closed at $10.56, up 16 cents since last Friday. For the week, Jul 2018 soybean futures traded between $10.27 and $ Net sales reported by exporters were below expectations with net sales of 13.6 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 6.1 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 16.4 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 97% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 97%. July soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.65 at the end of the week. Jul/Aug and Jul/Nov future spreads were 2 and -9 cents, respectively. August 2018 soybean futures closed at $10.58, up 16 cents since last Friday. The Crop Progress report estimated soybeans planted at 2% compared to 5% last year and a 5-year average of 2%. In Tennessee, soybeans planted were estimated at 1% compared to 3% last year and a 5-year average of 1%. In Tennessee, Oct/ Nov 2018 soybean cash contracts average $10.13 with a range of $9.98 to $ November 2018 soybean futures closed at $10.47, up 12 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $10.60 November 2018 Put Option which would cost 63 cents and set a $9.97 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2018 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.53 at the end of the week. Cotton Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for April 26 were cents/lb ( ) and cents/lb ( ). Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased 0.09 cents to cents. July 2018 cotton futures closed at cents, down 0.22 cents since last Friday. For the week, July 2018 cotton futures traded between and cents. Net sales reported by exporters were up from last week with net sales of 312,000 bales for the 2017/18 marketing year and 259,300 bales for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 421,400 bales. Upland cotton export sales were 112% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 95%. Jul/Oct and Jul/Dec cotton futures spreads were cents and cents, respectively. 4 (Continued on page 5)

5 Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith Oct 2018 cotton futures closed at 80.86, down 0.81 cents since last Friday. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton planted at 9% compared to 8% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 10%. December 2018 cotton futures closed at 79.27, down 0.16 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing an 80 cent December 2018 Put Option costing 4.98 cents establishing a cent futures floor. Wheat In Tennessee, June/July 2018 wheat cash forward contracts ranged from $4.59 to $5.14 for the week. July 2018 wheat futures closed at $4.98, up 21 cents since last Friday. July 2018 wheat futures traded between $4.67 and $5.04 this week. July wheat-tocorn price ratio was Wheat net sales reported by exporters were above expectations with net sales of 10.9 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and net sales of 10.3 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the week were up from last week at 21.6 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 93% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 103%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat condition at 31% good-to-excellent and 37% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat headed at 13% compared to 9% last week, 30% last year, and a 5-year average of 19%; and spring wheat planted at 3% compared to 3% last week, 21% last year, and a 5-year average of 25%. In Tennessee, winter wheat condition was estimated at 73% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; winter wheat jointing at 89% compared to 83% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 79%; and winter wheat headed at 10% compared to 5% last week, 56% last year, and 19% last year. Jul/Sep and Jul/Jul future spreads were 17 cents and 69 cents, respectively. September 2018 wheat futures closed at $5.15, up 20 cents since last Friday. July 2019 wheat futures closed at $5.67, up 18 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.70 July 2019 Put Option costing 44 cents establishing a $5.26 futures floor. Additional Information: Links for data presented: U.S. Export Sales - USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production - EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates - Upland Cotton Reports - Tennessee Crop Progress - U.S. Crop Progress - USDA AMS: Market News - If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu. 5

6 Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock Friday, April 20, 2018 Thursday, April 26, 2018 Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Soybeans May ($/bushel) Jul Aug Sep Nov Jan Corn May ($/bushel) Jul Sep Dec Mar May Wheat May ($/bushel) Jul Sep Dec Mar Soybean Meal May ($/ton) Jul Aug Sep Oct Dec Cotton May ( /lb) Jul Oct Dec Mar Live Cattle Apr ($/cwt) Jun Aug Oct Dec Feeder Cattle Apr ($/cwt) May Aug Sep Oct Nov Market Hogs May ($/cwt) Jun Jul Aug Oct

7 Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2 This Week Last Week Year Ago Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average $/cwt lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Small Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Steers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Holstein Steers lbs lbs lbs Slaughter Cows & Bulls Breakers 75-80% Boners 80-85% Lean 85-90% Bulls YG Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Small Frame #1-2 Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending April 27, lbs lbs lbs lbs Heifers: Medium/Large Frame # lbs lbs lbs lbs Cattle Receipts: This week:7,949 (11) Week ago: 9,419 (11) Year ago: 3,965 (7) 7

8 Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steer Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average Tennessee lbs. M-1 Steers Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average /2016 Avg /2016 Avg Area Finished Cattle Prices 2017, 2018 and 5-year average Tennessee Slaughter Cow Prices Breakers 75-80% 20 17, 2018 and 5-year average 2012/2016 Avg Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators Friday, April 20, 2018 Thursday, April 26, 2018 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High $/bushel No. 2 Yellow Soybeans Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Yellow Corn Memphis N.W. B.P N.W. TN Upper Md Lower Md Wheat Memphis 8

9 Video Sales & Loads Dickson Regional Livestock Center April 23, load of 69 heifers; M&L-1&2s; est. wt. 737 lbs.; $ East TN Livestock Center April 25, load 60 steers; M&L-1&2s; est. wt. 835 lbs.; $ load 55 Holstein steers; Large 3s; est. wt. 900 lbs.; $85.50 Graded Sheep & Goat Sales Columbia Graded Sheep and Goat Sale Weighted Average Report for 04/23/2018 Receipts: 391 (203 goats; 188 sheep) Last Sale: 414 For complete report: Mid-South Livestock Center April 23, load 64 heifers; M&L-1&2s; est. wt. 808 lbs.; $ Bluegrass Stockyards April 24, load of 69 heifers; Blk; est. wt. 730 lbs.; $ load of 62 steers; Blk/BWF; est. wt. 800 lbs.; $ Self-Reported and Self-Graded Livestock Markets 4/24/18 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 324 (117 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: Med & Lg lbs lbs lbs /23/18 Morris Brothers Stockyard, Pikeville, TN Receipts: 70 Last Week: 32 Last Year: 116 Steers: Heifers: lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Bulls: lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs lbs Other: Slaughter Cows (over 900 lbs): Slaughter Bulls ( lbs): Head Calves:

10 Beef Industry News Featured Article from Herald Chronicle UTIA researchers examine feasibility of a Tennessee certified beef program April 26, 2018 Consumer Demand May Drive Expanded Beef Market KNOXVILLE, Tenn. Consumer demand for locally grown beef has some Tennessee beef producers pondering their options, while researchers at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture examine the feasibility of a Tennessee Certified Beef program. Would you be willing to pay a premium for beef that is born, raised and harvested in Tennessee and graded USDA Choice or Prime? Would enough Tennessee beef producers participate if a Tennessee Certified Beef (TCB) program was offered? These are the leading questions that researchers from the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics sought to answer in a study that evaluates an expansion of the Tennessee cattle market. UTIA researchers surveyed Tennessee beef consumers regarding their willingness to pay an increased premium for TCB, as cattle producers would have to recoup the additional costs associated with producing a TCB product. The consumers indicated yes, they would indeed pay the premium to have Tennessee Certified Beef. The demand is there. Next the researchers examined supply. If such a program existed, would enough Tennessee beef producers be willing to participate? Due to the competitive advantage other regions in the nation have in grain-finishing cattle, the vast majority of feeder cattle are sent to feedlots in Midwestern and Western states to be finished and harvested. Only 6.8 percent of the 950,000 head of cows and heifers calved in Tennessee in 2016 were harvested in-state. consumers and producers, meaning cattle producers in the state may have an opportunity to capitalize on another segment of the cattle industry, says Andrew Griffith, UT Extension livestock economist. However, this opportunity does not come without challenges, extra effort and significant risk as it relates to production and marketing. There are some noted challenges such as the capacity of harvesting facilities and the climate. Summers are typically hot and humid, which reduces the efficiency of growing cattle. Winters tend to be cold and wet, leading to muddy conditions in feeding operations, which reduces feeding efficiency. Overall, research results imply both supply and demand for a state-branded beef product. In December 2013, Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam challenged policymakers and state agricultural leaders to expand marketing opportunities for Tennessee producers and encourage new production systems and agribusinesses. The information from this study is valuable in determining the feasibility of a TCB program and could be another opportunity to meet the governor s challenge, satisfy consumer demand and provide expanded cattle marketing in Tennessee. The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture celebrates 50 years of excellence in providing Real. Life. Solutions. through teaching, discovery and service. ag.tennessee.edu However, with the demand for locally produced beef, cattle producers are weighing their options, and UTIA researchers are running the numbers. Sixty-seven percent of surveyed cattle producers expressed an interest in a TCB program, given it was profitable. On average, each surveyed producer that expressed an interest in participating in a TCB program was willing to supply 32,329 pounds of beef per year. This research demonstrates interest in locally branded beef by Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall 2621 Morgan Circle arec.tennessee.edu USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service