GGELS Evaluation of the livestock s sector contribution to the EU GHG emissions. European Commission DG Agriculture and Rural Development

Transcription

1 GGELS Evaluation of the livestock s sector contribution to the EU GHG emissions European Commission DG Agriculture and Rural Development

2 Starting point 18% 2

3 GGELS (1) Objective: Provide estimate of the net GHG emissions of the livestock sector in EU27. Animal species: Beef and dairy cattle, small ruminants (sheep and goats), pigs and poultry. Products: (beef, pork, poultry, sheep and goats), milk (cow, sheep and goats) and eggs. Livestock systems: BOMILK (dairy cattle), BOMEAT (meat from bovine), POUFAT (meat from poultry), LAHENS (egg production), SHGOAT (meat & milk from sheep and goat) and PORCIN (pig production) Food chain aproach (cradle to farm gate) Spacial detail NUTS2 3

4 GGELS (2) Quantification: CAPRI 2004, LCA Results: expressed by Kg of carcass meat, milk (4% fat content) or eggs. Emission source Livestock rearing Feed production Gases Enteric fermentation X CH 4 Livestock excretions o Manure management (housing and storage) X NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4, NO x o Depositions by grazing animals X NH 3, N 2 O, NO x o Manure application to agricultural soils X NH 3, N 2O, NO x o Indirect emissions, indirect emissions following N- X N 2 O deposition of volatilized NH 3 /NO x from agricultural soils and leaching/run-off of nitrate Use of fertilizers for production of crops dedicated to animal feeding crops (directly or as blends or feed concentrates, including imported feed) o Manufacturing of fertilizers X CO 2, N 2 O o Use of fertilizers, direct emissions from agricultural soils X NH 3, N 2 O and indirect emissions o Use of fertilizers, indirect emissions following N- deposition of volatilized NH 3 /NO x from agricultural soils and leaching/run-off of nitrate X N 2 O Cultivation of organic soils X CO 2, N 2O Emissions from crop residues (including leguminous feed X N 2 O crops) Feed transport (including imported feed) X CO 2-eq On-farm energy use (diesel fuel and other fuel electricity, X CO 2-eq indirect energy use by machinery and buildings) Pesticide use X Feed processing and feed transport X CO 2 Emissions (or removals) of land use changes induced by livestock activities (feed production or grazing) o carbon stock changes in above and below ground X CO 2, biomasss and dead organic matter o soil carbon stock change X CO 2, o biomass burning X CH 4 and N 2 O Emissions or removals from pastures, grassland and X X CO 2 cropland 4

5 GGELS (3) System boundaries for the GGELS project 5

6 Limitations Assesment of animal production systems in Europe, not considering from a consumer s perspective. Brief assesment of GHG emissions of the most important imported animal products (bovine and chicken meat Brazil, sheepmeat from NZ) Dificult to provide a realistic quantification of emission abatement potentials technological reduction measures / policy mitigation options Nevertheless, policy options and reduction measures where explored Environmental effects other than GHG and NH 3 emissions and biodiversity under present conditions where not considered Uncertainty of the estimates 6

7 Structure Overview of the EU livestock sector 1st phase Typology of livestock production systems in Europe Methodology for quantification of GHG and ammonia from the sector Comparison of emissions CAPRI / National inventories 2nd phase Quantification of GHG emissions / LCA Technological abatement measures Prospective overview of EU livestock emissions 7

8 Results (1) Total GHG fluxes of EU-27 livestock production in 2004, calculated with a cradle-to-gate lifecycle analysis with CAPRI 8

9 Results (2) 29% 2% 21% 49% Share of different sectors on total GHG emissions. Livestock sector (LCA) = 9,1% of total emissions (all sectors) With LUC (land use changes) - 12,8% 9

10 Results (3) 45% 40% LULUC Livestock without LULUC 35% 30% Percent 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% BL DK DE EL ES FR IR IT NL AT PT SE FI UK CY CZ EE HU LT LV MT PL SI SK BG RO EU EU member state Total GHG fluxes of EU livestock production (CAPRI LCA based results) in relation to EU total GHG emissions (National Inventories) 10

11 Results Product Level ( + Milk) GHG fluxes [kg CO2-eq / kg meat] CO2_LULUC CO2_Energy N2O CH4 GHG fluxes [kg CO2-eq / kg milk] CO2_LULUC CO2_Energy N2O CH Beef Pork Sheep and goat meat Poultry meat 0.0 Cow milk Sheep and Goat Milk Animal product Animal product Comparison of total GHG fluxes of different meat categories in kg of CO2-eq per kg of meat Comparison of total GHG fluxes of different milk categories in kg of CO2-eq per kg of milk 11

12 Technological abatement measures (1) Based on literature data review: estimated reduction potential of Mt CO 2 -eq (15-19% of current GHG emissions) However: Large uncertainties Results depending in baseline climates, soil types, farm production systems Limited number of studies High variability in systems and management practices 12

13 Technological abatement measures (2) Change in GHG fluxes [kt CO2-eq] Change in GHG fluxes [kt CO2-eq] Animal House Adaptation Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Goat Milk Sheep and Goat Eggs Low NH3 application of manure (high eff.) Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Goat Milk Sheep and Goat Eggs Poultry Poultry Covered storage high efficiency Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Sheep and Goat Milk Goat Urea Substitution Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Sheep and Goat Milk Goat Eggs Eggs Poultry Poultry Based on CAPRI (2004) Measures selected: availability of reduction factors and aplicability on CAPRI model Many effects at different places Carefull with simplified conclusions Change in GHG fluxes [kt CO2-eq] No Grazing Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Goat Milk Sheep and Goat Eggs Poultry Biogas Cow Milk Beef Pork Sheep and Goat Milk Sheep and Goat Energy + industry CH 4 livestock N 2 O soil N 2 O livestock Eggs Poultry

14 Prpospective overview/ Exploratory aproach (1) Set of policy scenarios: connstrained by the target of 20% emissions reduction in 2020 Reference or Baseline Scenario (REF) - takes into account the most likely developments of agricultural markets, including the full implementation of the Health Check. Emission Standard Scenario (STD) - linked to an emission abatement standard homogenous across MS. Emission Standard Scenario according to a specific Effort Sharing Agreement for Agriculture (ESAA) Livestock Tax Scenario (LTAX) - which introduces regionally homogenous taxes per ruminants. Tradable Emission Permits Scenario according to an Emission Trading Scheme for Agriculture (ETSA): - This scenario is linked to a regionally homogenous emission 'cap' set on total GHG emissions in MS. According to this 'cap' tradable emission permits are issued to farmers and trade of emission permits is allowed at regional and EUwide level. 14

15 Prpospective overview/ Exploratory aproach (2) The REF scenario: no explicit policy measures for GHG emission abatement scenario projection shows a trend driven reduction in GHG emissions for EU27 of - 6.8% in Co2-eq in the year 2020 compared to the reference year. In all policy scenarios the largest decreases in agricultural activities are projected to take place at beef meat activities. With the inclusion of emission leakage in the exercise, all emission scenarios where subject to leakage with the highest result in the LTAX (Homogeneous EU livestock tax) scenario with an increase of 20% of emissions in the rest of the world. BAS REF STD ESAA ETSA LTAX Total GHG emissions EU % reduction to BAS ( ) -6.8% -19.6% -19.1% -19.3% -19.1% Net increase in emissions in rest of the world due to emission leakage % reduction to BAS (2004) -6.8% -17.7% -17.3% -18.1% -14.9% 15

16 Estimation emissions imported products Emissions from major imported animal products were calculated: Beef and poultry meat from Brazil and Sheepmeat from New Zealand with a different methodology Therefore, not directly comparable with other results of the study. 33 kg CO2-eq/kg where estimated for sheep meat from New Zealand 80 or 48 kg CO2-eq/kg for beef from Brazil (with or without LUC) 1.2 kg CO2-eql/kg for chicken from Brazil. However, the estimate LUC emissions is highly uncertain and must be used with caution. The reason for the higher GHG emissions from Brazilian beef (even without considering LUC emissions) is the lower productivity and also lower digestibility of the feed and thus higher CH4 emissions. 16

17 Conclusions EU approach to livestock emissions EU commitment to reduce GHG emissions EU climate policy instruments not sector specific MS to decide how to achieve reduction obligation in the nontrading sectors EU policy promotes healthy diets and has legislation to ensure food safety - No role in dictating what people should eat Fact based information about the GHG impact of different production methods is better than scare-mongering about meat eating 17

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