Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Projected Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview Created on: 13/Aug/2015 Valid from: 01/Nov/2015 Valid to: 31/Mar/2016 Key Outcomes for the Worst Affected Area FOOD CONSUMPTION - Nearly 20% of the population has food consumption gaps and 5% has large food consumption gaps.livelihood CHANGE- The projected analysis period is the harsh winter season when livelihood opportunities are limited; roads are blocked due to heavy snow restricting mobility. Households often adopt livelihood and food consumption related coping strategies. NUTRITIONAL STATUS- It is likely the GAM rate will deteriorate in winter. MORTALITY- Not an issue Summary of Causes, Context and Key Issues The projected analysis is conducted in eighteen provinces, where seven provinces have been projected to move from Phase 2 to Phase 3, six provinces would remain in Phase 2. Out of 12 provinces in Phase 3, three provinces Badhakshan, Kunduz and Paktika have 10 to 15 percent of the population in Phase 4 Emergency situation who would need lives and livelihoods saving support. As per FEWS NET information the country will have good precipitation from January to March which is likely to contribute to flood and snow coverage. Jan to March is the lean season when there is no or limited agricultural activity and households mostly depend on food stock and purchase from market. Winter limits access to income, mobility and access to the markets due to road blockage by snow. The household food stock from the previous harvest will deplete soon and the food price will increase. These are immediate causes of the projected food insecurity situation. Moreover the decreasing size of the Afghanistan Coalition Force has also constrained the job market in many provinces which is likely to worsen the food security situation in the lean season. Generally the marginal farmers and pastoral communities and agricultural labourers become most food insecure during this season. The returnee IDPs in northern provinces are will also get food insecure as they are still struggling to restore their lives and livelihoods. In many provinces the high influx of Pakistani refugees and their limited access to income in the winter is likely to increase the size of the food insecure population. Utilization indicators will further deteriorate as access to cooking fuel and improved water and sanitation are always constrained in winter. Key for Map Acute Food Insecurity Phase 1 Minimal 2 Stressed 3 Crisis 4 Emergency 5 Famine Inadequate Evidence Not Analysed Urban/Settlement! Area would likely be at least 1 Phase worse without the effects of humanitarian assistance Key for Callout Boxes #,### (##%) Pop. & % in Phases 3, 4 and 5 0% 100% % of People in each Phase Disclaimer: The boundaries, names, and designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by collaborating agencies or the IPC Global Partners. OpenStreetMap ( contributors For more information, contact: Noor Habib Arwall, Food Security and IPC Adviser, address: nhabib@landellmills.com 200 km 100 mi Analysis Partners & Supporting Organizations Acceptable Confidence of Medium Analysis High IPC Global Partners:. 1 / 5

2 Part 2: Summary of Findings, Methods, and Next Steps Key Findings and Issues The projected analysis is conducted in seventeen provinces, where eight provinces have been projected to move from Phase 2 to Phase 3; three provinces would remain in Phase 3 with increased population in Phase 3 and 4 and six provinces would remain in Phase 2. In total eleven provinces have been classified in Phase 3. Of the total population in the 17 Provinces 19 percent are in Phase 3 and 5 percent are in Phase 4 situation. However in three provinces Badhakshan, Kunduz and Paktika 10 to 15 percent of the population are in Phase 4 Emergency situation who would need lives and livelihoods saving support. A large part of the Phase 4 population in the three provinces are refugees from Pakistan. As per FEWS NET information the country will have good precipitation causing harsh winter from January to March. Agricultural production of some fruits and vegetables will happen in some warm parts of the provinces, at large December to March is an agricultural lean season with limited agricultural employment opportunities. Road blockage due to snow is a common phenomenon especially in high altitude areas that limits mobility and access to the markets. Due to lack of grazing fields in winter livestock producers are likely to count loss out of livestock sale. The household food stock from the previous harvest will not last beyond November and the food price will increase in this lean season. Depleting food stock will cause higher dependency on purchase on the contrary lowered purchasing power will constrain the food consumption. These are the immediate causes of the deteriorating food security situation. Moreover the decreasing size of the Afghanistan Coalition Force has also constrained the job market in many provinces which is likely to worsen the food security situation in the lean season. Generally the marginal farmers and pastoral communities and agricultural labourers become most food insecure during this season. In northern provinces the returnee IDPs are also likely to get food insecure as their lives and livelihoods are not recovered yet. The high influx of Pakistani refugees will increase the size of the food insecure population in many provinces due to the limited access to employment and income in winter. Utilization indicators which are generally bad in most of the provinces will further deteriorate especially access to cooking fuel and improved water and sanitation which are generally constrained in winter. The worsening of the food consumption of the households will surely increase the Global Acute Malnutrition rates in children. Methods, Process, and Key Issues The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a set of tools and procedures to classify the nature and severity of food insecurity for decision support. The IPC is a multi-stakeholder process based on broad technical consensus, convergence of evidence, accountability, transparency, and comparability across unit of analysis, countries and over time. The IPC classifies areas with acute food insecurity into five phases Minimal, Stressed, Crisis, Emergency and Famine -, with each phase aligned with conforming response objectives. Out of 34 provinces in Afghanistan the TWG conducted the projection analysis (December April 2016) only in 17 provinces considering the demand and request of major IPC partners and limited time for the analysis. Projection analyses were done based on current analysis (Sept- November 2015). In addition to the available data TWG tried to collect further information from the reliable sources which will inform the projection period. TWG members started the analysis on 14 of October. As current analysis were based on ISS TWG members divided the provinces between the groups and each group worked remotely. In order to reflect the field information some IPC regional technical working group s members were also invited for the last 3 days to contribute to the process and have the technical consensus. Challenges: Lack of participation & commitment from different IPC Stakeholders th The Training which was planned for projection analysis was not conducted, therefore TWG members struggled with the projection. GSU provided remote support. Very limited time for the projection analysis, thus TWG was not able to cover 34 province, Its worthy to be mentioned that bellow population table indicates the number of sever food insecure population excluding IDP's & Refugees across the country. df s Food Security Seasonal Calendar and Monitoring Implications 2 / 5

3 Recommendations for Next Steps Following are the recommendations for next steps As Refugees from Pakistan in the south regions of the country are settled, in order to know the exact situation it requires further evidence based analysis for the purpose of strategic intervention. Thresholds, with the support of specialists, could be developed for some key contributing factors indicators taking into account livelihoods. TWG and AFSTT technical capacity on food security and nutrition analysis must be reinforced; especially focusing on indicators, livelihoods, and seasonality. It is recommended that stakeholders conduct more livelihood based assessments and more nutrition surveys. Nutrition surveillance data would also add value to the analysis. The seasonal assessment should be carried out at least twice a year in Afghanistan to timely inform the IPC. It may not be necessary to cover all 34 provinces, or use the same detailed questionnaire in both assessments. Information from the Ministry of Trade should be fully incorporated into the analysis in the future. In view of high commodity prices in a number of provinces in Afghanistan, there is need to better understand market systems, particularly where disruptions are occurring. Next round of IPC Analysis should be carried out by June 2016, providing access to updated information in order to inform the decision maker on time. Contact for Further Information IPC Technical Working Group: Noor Habib Arwall, Food Security and IPC Adviser, address: nhabib@landell-mills.com IPC Global Support Unit: ( 3 / 5

4 Part 3: Population Table Administrative Unit Level Total # (pp) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 or higher # of pp % of pp # of pp % of pp # of pp % of pp # of pp % of pp # of pp % of pp # of pp % of pp Badakhshan 950, , , , , , Badghis 495, , , , , , Baghlan 910, , , , , , Bamyan 447, , , , , , Daykundi 424, , , , , , Ghor 690, , , , , , Hilmand 924, , , , , , Jawzjan 540, , , , , , Kunar 450, , , , , , Kunduz 1,010, , , , , , Nimroz 164,978 70, , , , , Nooristan 147,967 59, , , , , Paktika 434, , , , , , Samangan 387, , , , , , Takhar 983, , , , , , Uruzgan 386, , , , , , Zabul 304, , , , , , Khost 574, , , , , , Total 10,229,680 4,612, ,095, ,973, , ,522, / 5

5 Summary of Underlying and Limiting Factors The food insecurity situation in the 18 provinces of Afghanistan during the projected period is very much driven by food access and utilization. Limited income opportunities in the winter season has been identified as the financial access issue that will constrain the food consumption expecially of the marginalized population like small farmers, agricultural day labourers, small pastoralists, IDPS. Utilization indicators like access to to improved water and sanitation and hand washing practices are generally poor in most of the provinces. Winter will further deteriorate the situation along with access to cooking fuel. 5 / 5