Weekly Monsoon Report. 18September 2017

Transcription

1 Weekly Monsoon Report 18September 2017

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Monsoon season is towards end and the seasonal rains have remained below normal so far. Rainfall activities have gradually declined from June till the second week of September. However it is satisfactory to note that there were intermittent weeks of good rainfall during each months which has given some relief to the farmers. For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year s southwest monsoon season has been below LPA by 6% during 1 June till 17 September Northwest and Central India are more adversely affected. Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh including Chhattisgarh remains the states receiving lesser rainfall during current monsoon season. IN UP and Haryana more than 70% districts have received deficit rainfall. In MP and Chhattisgarh, more than 50% districts are rainfall deficient. However, the situation is comparatively better in other states. The rainfall deficiency seen from June till mid- August was compensated largely during September in the southern states. At all India level, around 39% of the total districts remains rainfall deficient. Seasonal rainfall was excess/normal in 29 and deficient/scanty in 7 out of the 36 meteorological subdivision during June 01- September 13, As compared to same period of last year, the number of deficient/scanty divisions is slightly less. In September second week, the number of deficient rainfall subdivisions remains 7. Rainfall deficient subdivisions increase during August 2017 however after witnessing good rains during last week of the August, the number of deficient rainfall subdivisions reduced from 10 to 6 only. In July the number of such sub-divisions remained in range of 3-4 only. In June the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions was in range of As per the IMD, during 1st week (15-21 September), rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over most parts of Peninsular & northeast India. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be slightly below normal over India as a whole. During 2nd week (21 to 28 September), rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over India as a whole during 2nd week also. At all India level, around 99% of the normal area of whole Kharif season has been sown till 15 September Pulses have been sown on around 133% of the normal sown area under pulses during kharif season while cotton and sugarcane sowing is completed on around 99% and 100% respectively. The sowing of oilseeds and cereals have been done only at 93% and 95% of the normal sown area under these crops. As per the reports published by the ministry of agriculture, the total sown area as on 15 September 2017, stands at lakh hectare as compared to lakh hectare seen at this time last year which is around 7.73% less. Highest percentage increment is registered in Cotton and Urad. The sown area under cotton increased by around 19% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Sugarcane sown area is increased by 9%. There is substantial reduction in the oilseeds sown area (-9%). The pulse sown area is also down by 4% compared to the area sown during corresponding period of last year. In Pulses, Urad sown area is increased by 21% while Tur has seen a decline of 18% compared to corresponding period of last year. In Oilseeds, soybean and groundnut, the sown area has shown decline of around 8 and 12% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Harvesting time has started and new crop arrivals of some crops like oilseeds and pulses has started hitting the markets. Soybean, Moong and Urad crop is being harvested. Paddy and Maize harvesting will start soon. By and large there has been normal growth status in majority of the crops however water stress due to deficient rains may result in to some reduction in yield. Further there may be damage to the crops in certain areas where floods were there like Gujarat region. Some incidences of localized disease infestations were also observed in crops like Cotton in Haryana and Punjab and soybean and Pulses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Weekly Monsoon Report 2 Monday, 18 September 2017

3 Classification of Seasonal Monsoon Rains (June September) over the country as a Whole (based upon Long Run Average (LPA) Rainfall) Category Rainfall Range (% of LPA) Deficient < 90 Below Normal Normal Above Normal Excess >110 The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period is 89 cm. Classification of Rainfall based upon Actual and Normal Rainfall during a particular Period Category % Departure of Actual rainfall from Normal Rainfall No rains -100% Scanty -60% to -99% Deficient -20% to -59% Normal +19% to -19% Excess +20% or more A: Actual Rain fall (mm), N: Normal Rainfall (mm), D Departure from Normal (mm) There are 36 Meteorological Sub divisions in India Seasons Winter Season Pre-Monsoon Season Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season January February March - May June - September October - December The monsoon forecast History Year Forecast Actual Issued in April Issued in June (% of LPA) % of LPA with a model error of ±5 98 % of LPA ± % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5 93 % of LPA ± 4 88 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 88% of LPA ±4% 86 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 106% of LPA ±4% 97 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 98% of LPA ±4%? The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period is 89 cm. Major crops grown during Kharif Season (i) Cereals : Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi; (ii) Pulses : Tur (Arhar), Moong, Urad; (iii) Oilseeds : Groundnut, Soybean, Sunflowerseed, Sesamum, Nigerseed, Castor seed (iv) Cotton (v) Guarseed (vi) Sugarcane (vii) Spices : Chilli and Turmeric Weekly Monsoon Report 3 Monday, 18 September 2017

4 SUMMARY OF MONSOON 2016 Southwest monsoon set in over Kerala on 8 th June (7 days behind the normal schedule of 1st June) and covered the entire country by 13 th July (against the normal date of 15th July). The rainfall during monsoon season (June-September) over the country as a whole was 97% of its long period average (LPA). Seasonal rainfalls over Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula and Northeast India were 95%, 106%, 92% and 89% of respective LPA. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole was 89% of LPA in June, 107% of LPA in July, 91% of LPA in August and 97% of LPA in September. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 sub-divisions constituting 72% of the total area of the country received normal rainfall and 4 sub-divisions received excess rainfall (13% of the total area) during the season. However, 9 sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country received deficient seasonal rainfall. Monsoon withdrawal commenced from West Rajasthan on 15th September with a delay of 2 weeks. It has withdrawn from most parts of Northwest India as on 10th October, Realized rainfall during southwest monsoon 2016 over four broad geographical regions Season (July-September) rainfall Region LPA (mm) Actual Rainfall for 2016 SW Monsoon Season Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (% of LPA) All India % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % Monthly & second half of the monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole (All India) Month LPA (mm) Actual Rainfall for 2016 SW Monsoon Season Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (% of LPA) June % July % August % September % August+September % The following important meteorological sub divisional received deficient rainfall during monsoon season Sub-Divisions Rainfall Deficiency (%) Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi -27 % Punjab -28 % Gujarat -24 % Costal Karnataka -21% South Interior Karnataka -21 % Source: IMD Weekly Monsoon Report 4 Monday, 18 September 2017

5 MONSOON 2017: LONG RANGE FORECAST UPDATE Highlights Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August September) of the 2017 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 100% of LPA with a model error of ±8%. The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June. The seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96% to 104% of LPA) as was forecasted in June. Source: PIB, IMD, New Delhi, August 08, 2017 Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 96% of LPA over North-West India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 99% of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 96% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %. Source: PIB, IMD, New Delhi, June 06, 2017 Progress of Monsoon 2017 Monsoon rainfall activities have started diminishing. As per the IMD, during 1st week (15-21 September), rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over most parts of Peninsular & northeast India. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be slightly below normal over India as a whole. During 2nd week (21 to 28 September), rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over India as a whole during 2nd week also. Rainfall Forecast till 21 September 2017 Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly Monsoon Report 5 Monday, 18 September 2017

6 District Rainfall Map (1 June 17 September 2017) Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly and Seasonal Rainfall Pattern in India Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly Monsoon Report 6 Monday, 18 September 2017

7 Rainfall (mm) Departure (%) Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) up to 17 September 2017 Region Actual Normal % Departure from Long Period Average (LPA) All India % East & Northeast India % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % Source: IMD, New Delhi For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year s southwest monsoon season has been below LPA by 6% during 1 June till 17 September Northwest and Central India have seen below normal rainfall. Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall in the Country during Monsoon Season The country received a cumulative seasonal rainfall of mm against a normal of mm since June 01 September 13, 2017, which is 6% less of the normal. Same time last year, the departure in rainfall against normal was -5%. Cumumative Rainfall Received during Monsoon Season (01 June - 13 September, 2017) % 400-8% -5% -6% % % Actual Normal Departure -8% 6% -11% -16% -5% -6% 30% 0% -30% Actual Normal Departure Data Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly Monsoon Report 7 Monday, 18 September 2017

8 No. of Met. Sub. Divisions Meteorological Sub-division wise Distribution of Rainfall A: Seasonal rainfall Seasonal rainfall was excess/normal in 29 and deficient/scanty in 7 out of the 36 meteorological subdivision during June 01- September 13, As compared to same period of last year, the number of deficient/scanty divisions is slightly less. Number of Meteorological Sub-divisions with Excess/Normal and Deficit/scanty ranifall (01 June - 13 September, 2017) Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty Data Source: IMD, New Delhi B: Top Five Meteorological Sub-divisions based upon Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall Top Five* Deficient and Excess Rainfall Sub-Divisions based upon cumulative Rainfall (1 June - 13 September 2017) Vidarbha East Uttar Pradesh Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi East Madhya Pradesh West Uttar Pradesh India -6 Costal Andhra Pradesh Rayalaseema Sautsdhtra, Kutch & Diu West Rajasthan Tamil Nadu & Puducherry % Departure from Normal Rainfall Data Source: IMD, New Delhi, *Important regions from Kharif crops point of view West UP, East UP, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Haryana, Chandigarh, remain the regions with deficit rainfall during this monsoon season. However excess rainfall was seen in the West Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, Costal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Costal Andhra Pradesh. Weekly Monsoon Report 8 Monday, 18 September 2017

9 01-Jun 07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 02-Aug 09-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 06-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep No. of Met. Sub. Divisions % Departure 07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 02-Aug 09-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 06-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep C: Trend in Monsoon Rainfall Departure from Normal Rainfall Trend in Rainfall Departue from Normal since the start of Monsoon Season Excess Rains ( +20% or more ) Normal Rains (-19% to +19%) Deficient Rains ( -20% to -59%) Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Weekly Seasonal Normal Range Normal Range Data Source: IMD, New Delhi Rainfall activities have gradually declined from June till the second week of September. However it is satisfactory to note that there were intermittent weeks of good rainfall during each months which has given some relief to the farmers. D: Week wise Trend in Deficient/Scanty rainfall Sub-divisions 12 Week wise Deficient Rainfall Sub-divisions on the basis of Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall (Since the begining of the Monsoon Season) Data Source: IMD, New Delhi In September second week, the number of deficient rainfall subdivisions remains 7. Rainfall deficient subdivisions increase during August 2017 however after witnessing good rains during last week of the August, the number of deficient rainfall subdivisions reduced from 10 to 6 only. In July the number of such sub-divisions remained in range of 3-4 only. In June the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions was in range of Weekly Monsoon Report 9 Monday, 18 September 2017

10 % Districts E: State wise Distribution of Number of Districts with Deficient/Scanty Rainfall *Districts with Deficient Rainfall in various States ( 01 June - 17 September 2017) 79% 71% 65% 56% 45% 43% 42% 39% 31% 31% 30% 29% 39% 17% 16% 12% 0% 0% Data Source: IMD, New Delhi, * States which are more important from view point of kharif Crop production are selected. Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh including Chhattisgarh remains the states receiving lesser rainfall during current monsoon season. IN UP and Haryana more than 70% districts have received deficit rainfall. In MP and Chhattisgarh, more than 50% districts are rainfall deficient. However, the situation is comparatively better in other states. The rainfall deficiency seen from June till mid- August was compensated largely during September in the southern states. At all India level, around 39% of the total districts remains rainfall deficient. KHARIF CROP SOWING PROGRESS At all India level, around 99% of the normal area of whole Kharif season has been sown till 15 September Pulses have been sown on around 133% of the normal sown area under pulses during kharif season while cotton and sugarcane sowing is completed on around 99% and 100% respectively. The sowing of oilseeds and cereals have been done only at 93% and 95% of the normal sown area under these crops. As per the reports published by the ministry of agriculture, the total sown area as on 15 September 2017, stands at lakh hectare as compared to lakh hectare seen at this time last year which is around 7.73% less. Highest percentage increment is registered in Cotton and Urad. The sown area under cotton increased by around 19% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Sugarcane sown area is increased by 9%. There is substantial reduction in the oilseeds sown area (-9%). The pulse sown area is also down by 4% compared to the area sown during corresponding period of last year. In Pulses, Urad sown area is increased by 21% while Tur has seen a decline of 18% compared to corresponding period of last year. In Oilseeds, soybean and groundnut, the sown area has shown decline of around 8 and 12% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Weekly Monsoon Report 10 Monday, 18 September 2017

11 As on 15 September 2017, status of crops sowing As on 15 September 2017 Normal Area for Whole Kharif Season Share of Crop in Normal Area (In Lakh hectare) Area sown Change over % of Normal for Whole Season Share of Crop in Total Sown area of India Absolute Percentage A B C D E = C-D F = E/D G = C/A H I Total Cereals % % 95% 53% 54% Total Oilseeds % % 93% 16% 18% Total Pulses % % 133% 13% 14% Cotton % % 99% 12% 10% Sugarcane % % 100% 5% 4% All Crops % % 99% 100% 100% Source: MoAFW As on 15 September 2017 Normal Area for Whole Kharif Season Area Sown Change over % of Normal for Whole Season (In Lakh hectare) Share of Crop in Total Sown area of India Absolute Percentage A B C D = B-C E = D/C F = B/A G H Cereals a) Rice % 94% 36% 36% c) Bajra % 93% 7% 7% d) Maize % 109% 8% 8% b) Jowar % 77% 2% 2% Total Cereals % 95% 53% 54% a) Tur b) Urad 24.8 c) Moong Total Pulses Pulses % 110% 4% 5% % 172% 4% 3% % 135% 3% 3% % 133% 13% 14% Oilseeds a) Soybean % 96% 10% 11% b) Groundnut % 100% 4% 4% c) Sesamum % 90% 1% 1% d) Castorseed % 67% 1% 1% Total Oilseeds % 93% 16% 18% Other Cash Crops Cotton % 101% 12% 10% Sugarcane % 100% 5% 4% Jute & Mesta % 84% 1% 1% All Kharif Crops Total Crops Kharif % 99% 100% 100% Weekly Monsoon Report 11 Monday, 18 September 2017

12 MARKET FEEDBACK ON SOWING STATUS OF IMPORTANT COMMODITIES Note: This section gives some sense about the sowing progress and crop growth status in important commodities as received from the discussion with the farmers and market value chain participants from time to time. It may significantly vary from government / other sources as well as the actual status. Thus, it may not be used for wider generalization of the results. Harvesting time has started and new crop arrivals of some crops like oilseeds and pulses has started hitting the markets. Soybean, Moong and Urad crop is being harvested. Paddy and Maize harvesting will start soon. By and large there has been normal growth status in majority of the crops however water stress due to deficient rains may result in to some reduction in yield. Further there may be damage to the crops in certain areas where floods were there like Gujarat region. Some incidences of localized disease infestations were also observed in crops like Cotton in Haryana and Punjab and soybean and Pulses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Guar seed also got water stress conditions in some districts of Rajasthan including Sir Ganganagar/Bikaner/ Hanumangarh etc. Recently SOPA officials carried out a crop survey to get the Soybean status in country. They found that overall, germination is satisfactory. In some areas, re-sowing had to be done because an extended dry spell. They also estimated that area under soybean may decrease by about 6.4% over last year s area estimate of SOPA. Over all condition of the Soybean crop in most of the areas is Normal. In some parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where light soil exists, Soybean crop has already been damaged due to moisture stress, which may affect the overall productivity adversely in these areas. There is not much change in the area in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The extended dry spell caused attack of some pests and insects in some areas. Attack of white grub larva was seen in some districts of Madhya Pradesh. Normally this does not happen in black cotton soil but the dry spell caused this which led to total damage to the standing crop in a small area was reported. No threat to crop by weeds was seen. Recent rains were reported from some areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, which will save the crop from further loss in yield Weekly Monsoon Report 12 Monday, 18 September 2017

13 Impact of deficit rains on Turmeric Crop in Tamil Nadu Erode Turmeric crop is adversely affected due to deficit rains in Tamil Nadu. However rains have improved recently. In Telangana and AP the rains are good which may positively impact the yield. Weekly Monsoon Report 13 Monday, 18 September 2017

14 Important News Reports on Impact of Monsoon Rains on Crop Progress म नस न कमज र पड़न स ग र सकत ह फसल क उत प दन Nai Duniya (Bhopal Edition) 04 September 2017 व भव श र धर, भ प ल प रद श म कमज र म नस न न ककस न क उम म द पर ल भ प न फ र ददय ह स य ब न, म, उड़द और ध न क फसल इसस प रभ ववत ह ई ह ग व ललयर, च बल और स र स भ म ह ल त सबस ब र ह स म न य स कम ब ररश और म सम म नम नह ह न स फसल जजस तरह प रभ ववत ह रह ह, उसस उत प दन 20 स 25 प रततशत तक ग रन क स भ वन जत ई ज रह ह म न ज रह ह कक खर फ क फसल त ज स -त स तनकल ज ए पर रब स जन म म स बत खड़ ह सकत ह, क य कक न त नददय म प न ह और न ह जल शय म कमज र म नस न क वजह स स य ब न क क ष त र 5 ल ख ह क ट यर, म फल क 50 हज र और ध न क रकब ढ ई ल ख ह क ट यर घट य ह उड़द ह एक म त र ऐस फसल ह, जजसक रकब सव छह ल ख ह क ट यर बढ़ ह प वव क व स च लक और ववश ज ञ ड. ज एस क शल क म न त ब द लख ड म ज म और उड़द ब ई ई थ, उसम बड़ न कस न ह आ ह स य ब न सदहत अन य फसल म य ल म ज क, इल ल और म ह ज स ब म र ल ई ह तनम ड़ क ष त र म अफलन (प ध म फल न ल न ) क लशक यत ह इसक असर उत प दन पर पड़ क ल उत प दन म 20 स 25 प रततशत तक क कम ह सकत ह ड.क शल क ब त क समथवन भ रत य ककस न स घ क क ष त र य स ठन मह म त र लशवक त द क षक षत न भ ककय उन ह न बत य कक कम ब ररश क असर ककस न, ब ज र और आम आदम पर पड़ जब म क प ततव नह ह त त ल और द ल मह ह ज ए सबस बड़ च न त रब स जन म ह, क य कक ब वन क ललए प न क स कट खड़ ह ज ए कमज र म नस न क क रण भ -जल स तर भ घटत ज रह ह ख त भरन त द र फसल क जज द रखन क जद द जहद स ई ख ड़ क व त मड़ म स रभ द क षक षत न अच छ म नस न क स भ वन क द खत ह ए आठ एकड़ म ध न ल ई म न सन न ध ख ददय त ख त भरन त द र ज स -त स फसल क जज द रखन क जद द जहद म ज ट ए आठ एकड़ क फसल प च एकड़ म लसमट ई, क य कक द ट य बव ल स इतन फसल क लस च ई ह ह प रह ह बढ़ ई एक हज र म व ट खपत ब ररश कम ह न और म सम म ठ ड न आन क वजह स बबजल क खपत बढ़ ई ह लस च ई क ललए ट य बव ल और म टर चल रह ह स त र क कहन ह कक इस स जन म ल भ छह-स ढ़ हज र म व ट क म रहत ह, ल ककन अभ स ढ़ स त हज र म व ट क म बन ह ई ह प रद श म 20 फ सद कम ब ररश प रद श म 31 अ स त तक ब ररश स म न य स 20 प रततशत कम रह ह 27 जजल (जबलप र, ब ल घ ट, लसवन, म डल, डड ड र, नरलस हप र, स र, दम ह, ट कम ढ़, छतरप र, शहड ल, अन पप र, उमररय, द व स, श ज प र, म र न, श य प र, लभ ड, लशवप र, न, अश कन र, दततय, भ प ल, र यस न, ववददश, हरद और ब त ल) म 20 स 59 प रततशत तक कम व व अभ तक दजव ह ई ह न कस न त ह आ ह, 25 क ब द कर सम क ष Weekly Monsoon Report 14 Monday, 18 September 2017

15 क व म त र र श कर बबस न न कह कक प न कम ग रन स न कस न ह आ ह जजन फसल क ज य द प न ल त ह, उन ह न कस न ज य द ह हम र क ष त र म ह ध न क ब वन 15 हज र ह क ट यर म कम ह ई ह क ई भ ब ध 40 प रततशत स ज य द नह भर ह 25 लसत बर क ब द प र जस थतत क सम क ष कर Source link: ?utm_source=naidunia&utm_medium=home&utm_content=mp Nav Duniya (Bhopal Edition) 04 September 2017 Weekly Monsoon Report 15 Monday, 18 September 2017

16 Rajasthan Patrika (Kota Edition) September 01, 2017 Weekly Monsoon Report 16 Monday, 18 September 2017

17 Feedback At: Disclaimer This Report is for general information of the recipients. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match the views of the reader. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or other needs of the reader. This document is not intended to be and must not be taken as the basis for any investment decision. It should be noted that the information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. We are not soliciting any action based upon this material. Neither NICR, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. Weekly Monsoon Report 17 Monday, 18 September 2017