Long Term Global Meat Market Developments

Transcription

1 Long Term Global Meat Market Developments 7th January, 2011 AIDAN COTTER Growing the success of Irish 28 JANUARY food & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA

2 Outline Recent trends in global meat market Key market drivers Potential developments to 2020

3 Recent trends in Global Meat Market

4 Per capita consumption continues to grow United States Per Capita Meat Consumption (kg per head) Brazil 5m tonnes European Union-27 Saudi Arabia 2.7m tonnes 16m tonnes Mexico Russia China Japan Sub Saharan Africa Source: FAO/OECD

5 Proportion of meat traded gradually increasing 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 12% 10% 10% 14% 11% 9% Beef Poultry Sheepmeat 6% 4% 2% 4% 6% Pigmeat 0% Source: FAO/OECD

6 Middle East, Russia & Asia driving import demand 000t versus Sheepmeat Pigmeat Beef Poultry MENA Russia EU China Jp. & Kr. N America +2.3mt +0.8mt +0.4mt +0.4mt +0.6mt +0.4mt Source: FAO/OECD

7 America s fuelling export growth 000t vs Sheepmeat Pigmeat Beef Poultry Sth. America Nth. America India Oceania EU +5.6mt +1.9mt +0.4mt +0.2mt -0.8mt Source: FAO/OECD

8 World meat prices increasing... $/tonne 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Beef, Argentina, frozen cuts Pork, USA, frozen 2,000 1,500 Chicken, Brazil, export value fob 1, Source: FAO

9 2010 saw accelerated growth in world prices % Avg Beef, Argentina, Frozen Pork, USA, Frozen Chicken, Brazil, Frozen (fob) Source: FAO

10 Key Drivers of Change AIDAN COTTER Growing the success of Irish 28 JANUARY food & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA

11 Billions 10 World Population billion 8 billion 9 billion billion 6 billion 5 billion billion By 2050 some 70% will live in urban areas. Almost three quarters Growing Source: the UN success World Population of Irish Prospects; food & horticulture the 2008 revision will be in Asia and Africa

12

13 The issue of Land... Availability Use

14 Climate Change: impact of disruptive weather and precipitation patterns on long-term agricultural output

15 By 2025, two-thirds of the world population could be living The scarcity of fresh water for a growing global population will result in water wars, rising prices and the requirement to declare embedded water under water stress conditions. Some 70% of the world s water is used in agriculture 70% of Growing the world s the success water of Irish food is & used horticulture in agriculture

16 Other issues... Volatility Feed costs and output prices Trade Policy Profitability Farm & processing level US Hard Red Winter Wheat, $/tonne

17 Developments to 2020 AIDAN COTTER Growing the success of Irish 28 JANUARY food & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA

18 Growth in meat consumption to continue M tonnes Global consumption to grow by almost 40m tonnes by Source: Bord Bia based on FAO/GIRA

19 Poultry the main beneficiary Share of meat consumption growth, (%) Beef 9% Sheepmeat 3% Pigmeat 28% Poultry 60% Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

20 Asia to drive growth in demand M tonnes Growth in meat consumption, 2020 vs (million tonnes) China NAFTA Brazil MENA Russia EU JP & KR Others

21 Meat Price Prospects Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats Some rise in real terms anticipated Especially red meat due limited supply growth

22 Trends by meat AIDAN COTTER Growing the success of Irish 28 JANUARY food & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA

23 Beef consumption to grow by 6% or 4 million tonnes Growth in beef consumption by region, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) China MENA USA Mexico India Japan Others Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

24 Leading to growth in import demand Growth in beef imports by region, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) USA Russia MENA Japan S Korea Other F East Others Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

25 EU Commission beef projections, Assuming unchanged Trade Policy Net production to fall by 7% Fall of 7% in dairy cows Consumption to drop by 3% Imports to grow by 180,000t Exports to fall by 60,000t EU Beef Imports, ( 000t cwe) Source: EU Commission, December 2010

26 Beef export growth to be driven by South America Change in beef exports, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) Brazil Argentina Australia USA Uruguay Others Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

27 Pigmeat consumption to rise by 10% or 11m tonnes 60% of growth Growth in pigmeat consumption by region, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) 0.0 China EU-27 USA Russia Phil. Brazil Mexcio JP. & KR. Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

28 However, growth in pigmeat trade more limited Pigmeat imports by key country, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) Overall, imports to rise by around 800,000 tonnes or 13% Japan USA Russia China & Hong Kong Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study

29 Export growth to be driven by North America Pigmeat exports by key supplier, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) USA EU CAN Brazil China & Hong Kong Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study 55% of growth from US & Canada

30 Poultry consumption to rise by a quarter Growth in poultry consumption by region, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) China MENA USA Oth. S America Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study Brazil EU Others Consumption growth expected in all regions, strongest in China & Middle East

31 Growth in global poultry trade to continue Poultry imports by key country, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) MENA EU-27 Japan China Russia Oth. Far East Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study Global import requirement to grow by 26% or 2.6m tonnes

32 Brazil & US to drive poultry export growth Poultry exports by key supplier, 2020 Vs (Million Tonnes) Brazil USA Thailand EU-27 China Argentina Source: GIRA Long Term Meat Study Brazil and US account for 70% of trade

33 Global sheepmeat market Consumption to grow by 6% China & Middle East Production to rise by over 5% Non-traditional producers Import growth in MENA & EU Exports NZ marginally lower Australia to grow by 12% 0.0 Sheepmeat exports by region, 2020 vs (million tonnes) New Zealand Australia Others (f)

34 Summary Global meat consumption to rise by 40m tonnes Led by poultry & pigmeat 1/3 of growth to take place in China Higher meat prices anticipated Volatility in feed and output prices set to persist Number of positive drivers However, a number of key challenges

35 Long Term Global Meat Market Developments 7th January, 2011 AIDAN COTTER Growing the success of Irish 28 JANUARY food & horticulture 2009 CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA