Yara International ASA Terje Tollefsen, EVP Strategy & Business Development. Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar 11 September 2018

Transcription

1 Yara International ASA Terje Tollefsen, EVP Strategy & Business Development Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar 11 September 218

2 Agenda Yara introduction Market fundamentals Yara strategy Targets and track record 2

3 Safe operations is our first priority TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling) Jan'16 Jun'18 1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours. 3

4 Yara s leading global position and differentiated product portfolio represent key sources of competitive edge Global #1 in Nitrates North America 12.% Europe 4.4%.2 Asia 7.1% Yara Eurochem Ostchem Uraichem Borealis Global #1 in NPK LatAm ex. Brazil 7.9% Africa 4.8% Yara C. mandel Gresik Iffco Acron Fertilizer product portfolio 3.5 Brazil 27.9% Fertilizers Industrial products & solutions 217 sales figures in mill. tonnes, % = total 217 Yara sales 4 NPK blends 19% Specialty (CN, Compound NPK, Fertigation) 26% Standard products (Urea, UAN, Ammonia) 34% Differentiated Products (CAN, AN) 21% 1) Including TAN and CN Including companies share of JVs 216YE 2) Compound NPK, excluding blends 3) 216/217 season volume 4) Ammonia trade not included in chart above 4

5 Yara s integrated business model is unique within the fertilizer industry 5

6 Agenda Yara introduction Market fundamentals Yara strategy Targets and track record 6

7 Market fundamentals improving, with positive developments towards 219 on grain stocks and urea supply Grain prices rising slowly, and stocks are falling Urea supply increases high in 218, falling thereafter Strong Asian demand drives LNG prices higher Index Grain price index Days Global capacity additions ex China Million tonnes LNG imports % Trend consumption growth /215 1/217 1/219 Grains Price Index Grain stocks-to-use ex. China Capacity growth Supply increase Asia Europe 1H 217 1H 218 7

8 Global prices moving higher, tight Chinese urea situation Increasing urea pricing (USD/ton) Lower Chinese export (thousand tonnes) 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Urea fob Black Sea Urea granular fob Egypt Source: BOABC, CFMW Urea prilled fob China Urea inland proxy China 8

9 Agenda Yara introduction Market fundamentals Yara strategy Targets and track record 9

10 Yara s mission and vision guides our strategy Our Mission Our Vision Responsibly feed the world and protect the planet. A collaborative society; a world without hunger; a planet respected. 1

11 The Crop Nutrition Leader We will grow responsible solutions to farmers, industry and society, while delivering superior return on capital Advance Operational Excellence Create Scalable Solutions Drive Innovative Growth 11

12 Advance Operational excellence; Improved safety, increased savings Advance Safe operations is our first priority TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling) Jan'16 Jun'18 1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours. IR 17 July

13 Yara Improvement Program delivering ahead of plan Advance Start: 216 End: Today The Yara Improvement Program has so far delivered 31 million US dollars of annual sustained benefits, measured at 215 margins The equivalent number using 218 margins is ~3 million US dollars Annual impact, USD million, vs. 215 baseline, at 215 margins Sustained EBITDA improvement One-off Benefits Improvements on Production volume, Consumption factor and Variable unit costs are on or ahead of target Cost Investments Q target 219 target 22 target 1 One-off benefits are related to working capital improvements and sales of white certificates 13

14 Create Scalable Solutions; Closer collaboration with the Food Industry Food Industry Create Farmer Crop Product Market depth Asset Sell what we produce Place new capacity Manage seasonality Build product reputation High quality products Viking ship brand Build crop solutions Crop knowledge Product portfolio Application competence Farmer centric solutions and tools Building Yara s knowledge margin Sell benefits of our solutions Deliver required crop quality to processor and ensure reliable raw material supply to food factories Unlock superior value creation for farmers through food industry Time 14

15 Precision fertilization made simple - atfarm Create 1x1m precision application of fertilizer Quantitative recommendation in only 5 clicks Empowered by 2 years of Yara precision fertilization R&D Benefits for farmers - Higher yield - Reduced waste - Higher protein content 15

16 1 Jan 218 Drive Innovative Growth; Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1 Jan 219 Drive Babrala (India) Acquisition of urea plant and distribution assets mt urea and approx 4 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Provides footprint to accelerate premium product growth Cubatao (Brazil) N and P production facility acquisition mtpa and approx. 6 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Strengthens production and industrial footprint in Brazil Sluiskil (NL) Revamp and urea+s expansion - Adds approx. 21 ktpa and 3 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Improved product mix - from urea prills to nitrates and urea+s Porsgrunn (Norway) NPK and calcium nitrate expansion - Adds 25 ktpa and approx. 5 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Record nitric acid production in March (5,127 tpd) Freeport (US) Hydrogen-based ammonia new-build JV with BASF (Yara 68%) - 55 ktpa and approx. 1 MUSD EBITDA p.a. (Yara share) - Strengthens Yara s global ammonia position Köping (Sweden) Nitric acid revamp and TAN expansion - 9 ktpa and approx. 2 MUSD EBITDA p.a. - Strong long-term fundamentals for civil explosives industry Salitre (Brazil) Phosphate mine - Adds approx. 1.1 mtpa SSP equivalents by 22 - Limited earnings until chemical production starts end 219 EBITDA figures at 215 prices except Cubatão which reflects business case prices 16

17 Yara has invested for the long term in Brazil; Bunge acquisition brought critical mass in distribution Volume (MM tons) Drive H18 Acquisition Acquisition Divestment Acquisition Acquisition Acquisition 6% 17

18 Yara combines large-scale local market presence with leading global product portfolio and crop nutrition expertise Drive Main growing area in Cerrado, target area for Galvani expansion Yara Brasil operations Galvani operations (mining, fertilizer plant and port) Optimization of asset footprint Modernization of blending units Process improvements CRC/t -2% Traditional blender New blender 18

19 Acquisition of Tata Chemicals fertilizer business expands our footprint, enabling accelerated premium product growth Drive Integrated world scale urea plant in Babrala, Uttar Pradesh ~.7 million tons ammonia production ~1.2 million tons urea production Commissioned in 1994 World-class operations and energy efficiency Workforce is committed to high HESQ standards; solid safety track record Energy consumption below 21 mmbtu/t, on par with Sluiskil Significant distribution footprint Warehouses: 4 own and approx. 1 third-party operated Salesforce: 6 own, and approx. 3 on contract Acquisition provides footprint to accelerate premium product growth Yara India 17% p.a. growth in premium product sales since 21 Yara Brazil premium products growth provides reference case 19

20 Agenda Yara introduction Market fundamentals Yara strategy Targets and track record 2

21 Major improvement and growth investments in 218; main earnings improvement from 219 onwards 1 EBITDA improvement3 (MUSD) Drive Improvement and growth capex 2 (BUSD) 1.5 Improvement program Committed expansions + M&A Improvement program: + 35 MUSD cost improvement + 15 MUSD volume improvement: ->.4 mill. tonnes ammonia ->.7 mill. tonnes fertilizer Committed expansions + M&A: mill. tonnes ammonia mill. tonnes fertilizer 1 Currency assumptions for 218 onwards: USD/NOK 8,1, EUR/USD: 1.18, USD/BRL: Excluding maintenance capex on existing assets. Yara s share of capex. Fully consolidated entities presented at 1% basis 3 Measured at 215 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 39 USD/t, Urea fob Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t Earnings improvement 3 (USD per share)

22 Profitable growth through the cycle Average cash return on gross investment (CROGI) well above the Yara CROGI target of 1% 16.1% 14.4% 14.1% 14.1% 22.8% 8.5% 17.4% 2.9% 17.3% 13.3% 14.% 12.6% 9.5 % 7. % 6.4 % 24 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 L12M Ex special items BUSD 2 Yara avg. gross investment, 12M rolling % target NOK/share Average annual shareholder return of 2% 1 IPO L12M 24 Accumulated cash dividend payments Book equity Average annual share price Share price 5 Sep 218 1) Share price appreciation (end 2Q 18) plus dividend payments 22

23 IR 17 July 218 Additional information

24 Market IR September

25 Yara s margins contain both commodity and premium elements Urea is the key commodity Nitrogen product 1 Ammonia 4% DAP/MAP 7% NPK 15% AN/CAN 9% Other 1% World nitrogen consumption Premium UAN 5% Urea 5% 17 Million Tonnes Commodity Both crop and fertilizer markets are key margin drivers for Yara The majority of Yara s business is related to nitrogen, which represents 57% 2 of the main nutrient consumption Standardised commodity products like urea make up almost ¾ of the global nitrogen industry The supply/demand situation for both commodity and premium fertilizer is important for pricing In addition, the supply/demand situation for crops also influences demand and pricing for fertilizer however Yara margins also contain premium elements Premium products are key in Yara s portfolio and business model Premium product margins typically contain both commodity and premium elements The size of the premium is typically linked to crop prices for fertilizer products, and economic activity for Industrial products IR September 217 1) Source: International Fertilizer Association ( IFA ) 216/217 season (June 217 estimates) 2) Source: International Fertilizer Association ( IFA ) 216/217 season (June 217 estimates) 25

26 Strong urea supply growth this year, but supply-demand balance set to gradually improve after 218 Global urea capacity additions excl. China (mill. tonnes) India Iran USA Production 6.7 Russia Algeria Others % consumption growth Source: CRU June CRU has removed Dangote Fertilizer, Nigeria (3 mill tons) from the medium-term forecast and shifted the project to

27 Chinese domestic supply slightly up, as export decline more than offsets lower production Chinese urea production down vs last year (million tons) Export reduction exceed production decline (million tons) / % / Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Production Export Domestic Domestic Export Production Source: CFMW, covering close to 1% of production Jul-Jun 16/17 Jul-Jun 17/18 27

28 Steady growth in grain consumption, production expected to fall short for the 218/19 season Million tons 2,65 2, Grain consumption and production E 19F Days Days of consumption in stocks E 19F Consumption Production Source: USDA August

29 Grain prices significantly up from last year Corn Nov 218 contract France (EUR/tonnes) Wheat (milling) Dec 218 contract France (EUR/tonnes) 29

30 Improving grain economics the Food and Cereal Indexes at 5- year average Index 3 FAO price index /26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/21 1/211 1/212 1/213 1/214 1/215 1/216 1/217 1/218 Source: FAO Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg. 3

31 1-year fertilizer prices monthly averages USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea 1, USD/t CAN cif Germany USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt Source: Fertilizer Market Publications USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver 1,2 1, Average prices

32 Key value drivers quarterly averages TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu) Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t) Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) NOK/USD exchange rate Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank 32

33 Business model and strategy IR September

34 Three operating segments supported by a global supply chain function cover the value chain Production Crop Nutrition Industrial Description Runs large-scale production of nitrogenbased products, the starting point for our crop nutrition and industrial solutions Provides worldwide sales, marketing and distribution of a range of crop nutrition products and programs Develops and markets environmental solutions and products for industrial applications Credit highlight Production has plants and mines globally, providing scale and flexibility Crop Nutrition creates resilience in earnings with distribution and agronomic competence Industrial segment reduces cyclicality and seasonality 217 Revenues 1.9 BUSD 8% 8.7 BUSD 76% 1.8 BUSD 16% 217 EBITDA 2.7 BUSD 54%.5 BUSD 36%.2 BUSD 12% Supply Chain Global function responsible for optimization of energy, raw materials and third party sourcing Sourcing and trade of 4,175 kilotonnes of ammonia and purchases of 286 mm MMBtu of energy, 3,456 kilotonness of potassium and 1,42 kilotonnes of phosphate rock 1) External revenues and other income 2) Excluding other and eliminations USD translations use USD/NOK exchange rate of

35 Supply Chain creates global scale in raw material purchases and optimization Global scale in raw material purchasing Global optimization of value potential A major buyer of key raw materials and one of the largest buyers of phosphate and potash globally Provides scale and secures reliable access and competitive pricing 216 P&K purchases (mt) Large number of plant, product and market combinations Flexibility in the allocation of production amount various plants, markets and products to optimize overall value potential Long-term view combined with short-term arbitrage opportunities Illustration of Yara s key optimization tool: Phosphate* Potash, MOP Margin USD/tonne Step 2: Over time increase the average margin for the product Step 1: Allocate more volume to high margin markets Average = 1 Realization of value potential from scale China India Yara Market: A B C D E F Vol Source: International Fertilizer Association («IFA») * In P 2 O 5 equivalents 35

36 Production scale advantage and variable cost flexibility due to asset set-up and product mix Diversified product portfolio 1 High ammonia flexibility Yara s operating cash costs are mostly variable Mill tonnes 217FY Mill tonnes 217FY BNOK, 217FY Ammonia 7 Nitrates NPK 6 Urea 5 CN Variable costs (84%) Dry raw materials Energy Freight 3 rd party finished fertilizer SSP UAN Phos. Rock 1 1 Europe Rest of the World European ammonia capacity Urea.4 Flexible Non-flexible Land-locked nitrates 13.3 Fixed cash cost (16%) ~9% of nitrate and NPK production can operate independently of ammonia production 1) Including Yara s share of joint venture plants Source: Yara internal accounts 36

37 Crop Nutrition creates resilience in earnings through distribution of crop nutrition solutions in response to farmer needs Distributor Food Industry Consumer Yara capabilities Knowledge, people, assets, products, services Market segmentation Crop, channel, farmer pains, gains and behaviors. Focus and investment Market needs Quality, quantity, trends (eco friendly, CO 2, etc.) Crop nutrition solutions Sustainable value creation 37

38 Industrial segment delivers opportunities for growth and offsets fertilizer cyclicality and seasonality Base Chemicals Environmental Solutions Mining Applications Industrial Applications 1 Key product and service offering Chemical applications used in paints and packaging, glues, foam, medical products and feed additives NO x and SO x abatement of emissions from heavy duty vehicles and industry Technical nitrates and solutions for mining and construction industries CN and associated solutions for industrial applications; feed urea and phosphates for animal nutrition Strategic fit Optimization of Upstream assets Utilize logistics advantage and infrastructure footprint Utilize technology, logistics and infrastructure advantage Monetize products into higher value markets Geographical market Europe Global Global Global Market drivers GDP growth Legislation, GDP growth GDP growth, mining industry GDP growth, standard of living EBITDA (MUSD) ) EBITDA figures restated to exclude divested business (CO 2 gas, liquid and dry ice) 38

39 Yara s solutions improves food production per hectare, delivered through products with lower emissions per ton Yara crop nutrition practices enables farmers to optimize application and thus lower emissions Yara s product mix has significant less emissions than most of our competitors kg CO2eq/kg N product Yara product mix Industry product mix Yara Nitrates Global Nitrates ~75% ~1% Precision farming promotes best agricultural practices Yara s N-sensor, N-tester and water sensor help optimize application rates and water use Yara s solutions help farmers comply with environmental legislation while supporting their competitiveness UAN Urea ~5% ~5% ~1% ~5% Production Application 1. Assumed 15% lower application rates for nitrates, due to lower volatilization 2. Average emissions from production higher, partly driven by plants running without N2O catalysts 39

40 Growth & Improvement IR September 217 4

41 Yara Improvement Program 217 status Program progress Financial benefits Start: Today 217 EBITDA benefits ahead of target (in 215 terms): Production volume improvement according to plan Energy consumption improvement ahead of plan Variable cost improvement ahead of plan Fixed cost improvement behind plan One-off program costs higher than original estimate End: 22 Annual impact, USD million, vs. 215 baseline, at 215 margins Sustained EBITDA improvement 1 One-off benefits One-off cost One-off investments Production volume Consumption factor ~35% ~1% ~3% ~25% target 219 target Variable unit cost 3 Fixed cost target 1. Additional IR September details in 217 the backup section; 2. Adjusted for corrected full-year procurement savings (e.g., full-year bonuses) 3. Includes improvements to direct and indirect categories, as well as value of additional steam and reduced cost of emissions 41

42 Benefits are realized through improvements to core value drivers Value driver How we improve How we know Volume 1 Increase production in our existing plants by improving reliability ~4 kt additional ammonia and ~7 kt additional finished fertilizer production by 22 6 More for less Consumption factor 2 Variable unit cost 3 Reduce spend on consumption factors, primarily energy, through better reliability and new technology Leverage global scale, apply advanced category management and collaborative procurement approaches ~3 % improved energy efficiency by 22 6 Reduced spend in direct and indirect categories $5MM sustained EBITDA improvement by 22 7 Fixed cost 4 Increase focus on standardization and realizing scale benefits Reduced spend on fixed costs in production and support functions Cash effects 5 Capex: Increased standardization, more focus on execution strategy and capability building in the organization Working capital: Better targets and training Capex: Lower spend for the same project portfolio Working Capital: Reduced inventory and credit days Added value Commercial effects Profitable growth of value added products through more targeted offerings and sales channels development Volumes and margins enhancement IR September Production volume; 2 Energy cost and other input factors; 3 Direct and indirect procurement; 4 Fixed costs in production, IT, supply chain and expert functions; 5 Capex and working capital; 6 Targets are not final and subject to change as additional plant assessment deep-dives are completed; 7 Against 215 baseline 42

43 Yara Improvement Program accounts for ~2% of L12M EBITDA MUSD +24% 26 L12M earnings impacted by lower fertilizer prices and higher natural gas cost (~9 MUSD) 1,95 1,355 Yara Improvement Program is (1) a driver of improved long-term Yara performance and (2) a response to challenging market conditions L12M EBITDA excl. special items and YIP YIP L12M EBITDA excl. special items Measured at L12M margins and prices, the equivalent number is approximately 26 MUSD. This represents almost 2% of Yara L12M EBITDA excluding special items. 43

44 Yara has expected commodity nitrogen oversupply, and has focused its growth pipeline on premium & industrial products Growth focused on premium & industrial Expected start up Pipeline EBITDA (215 prices, USDm) 1 Expand premium products sales and supply Uusikaupunki NPK Porsgrunn/Glomfjord CN/NPK Sluiskil urea+s Rio Grande NPK/NPK blends 3Q 216 1Q 218 3Q 218 2H Expand commodity scale based on attractive full-cost growth opportunities Freeport ammonia JV Babrala urea acquisition 2Q 218 1Q Act on attractive opportunities to grow industrial sales and supply Pilbara TAN Köping TAN Cubatão N and P 2Q Q 218 2Q Structurally secure P and K supply Galvani / Salitre mining 2Q18, chemical 4Q ) Including Yara s share of volume in equity accounted investees. Fully consolidated entities presented at 1% basis 2) Plant started up in 2Q 217, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround. Sum

45 Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline; multiple plant expansions and M&A coming on stream in 218 Production growth Mill.tonnes (mt) Yara-operated plants GrowHow UK (divested mid-215) Yara share of Qafco & Lifeco Finished products Ammonia TAN Uusikaupunki Babrala Por/Glo Cubatão Sluiskil Köping Salitre 2 Rio Grande 3 (3Q 216) Pilbara (1Q 218) (1Q 218) (2Q 218) (3Q 218) (3Q 218) (4Q (2Q 22) (2Q 217) 219) Est Pilbara 4 Babrala (1Q 218) Freeport (2Q 218) Cubatão (2Q 218) Est. 22 1) Adjusted to normalized / 216 turnaround level (.7mt finished fertilizer and.2mt NH 3 ) and regularity level (.7mt finished fertilizer and.4mt NH 3 ) 2) Salitre will reach 1.1 mill.tonnes in 222 3) Rio Grande expansion also adds 1 million tonnes NPK blends by 22 4) Including 1% ownership in Pilbara NH 3 plant (not included in committed growth pipeline) 5) TAN Pilbara started up in 2Q 217, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround 45

46 Improvement and growth investments; earnings and sensitivities EBITDA improvement 1 (MUSD) 1,1 Improvement program: Impact 2 of +1 USD/t price change (USD/share) Ammonia Urea Earnings improvement 1 (USD per share) 2. Growth: Impact 2 of +1 USD/t price change (USD/share) Improvement program Growth Ammonia Urea DAP 1 Measured at 215 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 39 USD/t, Urea fob Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t. 2 Improvement: 22 numbers. Growth: At full capacity (219 for urea and ammonia, 22 for DAP). 3 Phosphate-driven price change, equivalent to 138 USD/t phosphate rock (72 bpl) 3 46

47 Financial IR September

48 Yara s 2Q results reflect the business environment where increased deliveries and prices are offset by higher gas costs Increased deliveries in Europe following late spring Global urea price rebound in June, but limited impact on 2Q Tight LNG market drives European gas prices higher Million tons N 2 European industry deliveries +6% Imports USD/t 4 3 Urea price development USD/ MMBtu Yara European natural gas cost Yara Europe 7.7 TTF (1-month lag) 2Q17 2Q18 Domestic 2 1 Jul-16 Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob China Urea granular fob Egypt Urea inland proxy China Jun-18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 48

49 Earnings per share impacted by higher energy cost and currency translation loss x.xx EPS excluding currency and special items EBITDA Earnings per share USD millions Negative result includes a currency translation loss of USD 32 million, a non-cash effect mainly resulting from a strengthening US dollar through the quarter, which is fundamentally positive for Yara Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Average number of shares for 2Q 218: million (2Q 217: million)

50 Yara investment activity peaked in first half 218 Capex plan Net interest-bearing debt +1% USD billions Cost&capacity improvements M&A Committed growth Maintenance % H18 2H Net debt Mar 18 Net operating capital change Cash earnings* * Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/(loss) on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges Dividends received equity acc. Inv. Investments (net) Yara dividend Net debt Jun 18 5

51 5 European market nitrate prices up 4%; Yara realized NPK prices up 7% USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins 1 (monthly publication prices) +4% USD/t 5 Yara NPK premium over blend 1 +7% Urea Egypt CFR proxy CAN (46% N) Weighted average global premium above blend cost Ammonia CFR (46% N) Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany Urea, CIF inland Germany DAP, CIF inland Germany Yara EU gas cost *2 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 Upgrading margin from gas to nitrates in 46% N (USD/t): 25 1) All prices in urea equivalents, with 1 month time lag 213 MOP, CIF inland Germany 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 1) Yara NPK (average grade ) net of transport and handling cost., compared with nitrate, urea, DAP and MOP publication prices Source: Fertilizer Market Publications 51

52 Higher natural gas cost expected for the next two quarters USD/ MMBtu 9. Yara European natural gas cost USD millions 12 Y-o-Y change in Yara gas cost Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 TTF (1-month lag) *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 1 July 218 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren Yara Europe Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 EU/US actual EU/US estimate* Pilbara actual 52

53 Energy cost Yearly averages , quarterly averages for with forward prices* for 3Q18 and 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge ) Yara Europe *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 1 July 218 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren 53

54 Production and Deliveries IR September

55 Increased deliveries in all main markets except Brazil, where truck strike impacts negatively Kilotons +11% 7,331 2Q17 2Q18 6,64 +18% 2,413-19% 2,39 2,52 1,671 1, , Yara Europe Brazil North Asia Latin Africa America America 55

56 Increased ammonia and finished products production Kilotons 2,2 Ammonia 1 +13% Kilotons 5,5 Finished fertilizer & industrial products 1 +1% Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP 1) Including share of equity-accounted investees 56

57 Fertilizer deliveries Kilotons 7, Outside Europe Europe

58 Yara 2Q fertilizer deliveries by market and product Kilotons 2,413 2,39 2,52 1,671 2Q17 2Q ,76 1, Europe Brazil Latin America North America Asia Africa 1,872 1,213 1,359 1,41 1,97 1,137 1,244 1,7 1, Compound NPK Blend NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN 1) Yara-produced compound NPK and third party sourced (Total NPK excluding blend NPK) 58

59 Fertilizer deliveries by product and source Kilotons 1,872 1,137 1,41 1,213 1,359 1,97 1,7 1,244 1,449 1, Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Other Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced 59

60 Strong premium product deliveries Value-added fertilizer deliveries 1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries 1 4, 3,5 3, ,5 2, ,5 CAGR 9% 142 1, Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Outside Europe Europe 1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries Asia Brazil Latin America excl. Brazil 2Q16 2Q17 Africa 2Q18 North America 6

61 AdBlue deliveries Kilotons 6 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 61

62 Yara stocks Kilotons Finished fertilizer 8, Other Compound NPK Nitrates Urea 62

63 IR 17 July 218