DMH Strategies for Agro-Met Development in Myanmar

Transcription

1 Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag2) DMH Strategies for Agro-Met Development in Myanmar Ms. May Khin Chaw Deputy Director, Agro-met Division, Myanmar Hotel Royal ACE, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar September 29, 2016

2 CONTENT ØIntroduction of existing Agro-Met services ØDMH Strategies for Development of Agro-met Activities # Cooperation with RIMES # Proposed Activities under AIRBM Project ØOutputs of Agro-met Need Assessment # RIMES Capacity Building Assessment # Agro-met Development Workshop

3 Existing Capacity of Agro-met U 17 Stations in the whole country U Observe 5 times /day air temperatures wind speed & direction rainfall evaporation sunshine hours radiation ü 06:30 hrs MST, ü 09:30 hrs MST ü 12:30 hrs MST ü15:30 hrs MST ü 18:30 hrs MST soil temperature cloudiness

4 Forecasting Activities

5 Forecasting Activities Agro-met Weekly Forecast are issued, broadcasted in TV Farmer Channel since 2013 Sept Capacity Building Activities ü Agro Meteorological Basic/intermediate Course ü Meteorological Grade III Course

6 Publications and Issues ü Agro-Meteorological Handbook has been issued from Agro-Meteorological Division. ü It contains ; - How to take observation - How to analyze the observed Agro- meteorological data - Method of calculating Agro- meteorological Indices etc,.. ü Forecast issued by the request; - Forecasts (weekly/15 days) requested from agrcultural Journals

7 Publications and Issues ü Crop Weather Calendar are prepared for some crops like RICE, COTTON, JUTE, SUGARCANE etc, ü These calendars are very useful tools for agriculture ü These calendars can assist agricultural planner, decision makers in their endeavour

8 Publications and Issues Web based Agro- meteorological information; Facebook based Agrometeorological information;

9 CONTENT ØIntroduction of existing Agro-Met services ØDMH Strategies for Development of Agro-met Activities # Cooperation with RIMES # Proposed Activities under AIRBM Project ØOutputs of Agro-met Reqirements Assessment # RIMES Capacity Building Assessment # Agro-met Development Workshop

10 Implementation for Agro-met Component -Upgrading of Agro-Met Stations - Farm School -Agro advisory system (SESAME)

11 Objectives vrimes shall assist DMH and the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MOAI) in implementing key recommendations of the 9 th Monsoon Forum in Nay Pyi Taw in October 2012, in particular the development of tools to support users of weather andclimate information: v An updated agro-ecological zone map for Myanmar, crop-weather calendars that take into consideration the climate pattern in the past decades, v Expert system for translating weather and climate information into potential impacts and management options, vpilot Climate Risk Management Field Schools to introduce farmers to the use of science-based informationindecision-making. v Upgrade of the country s agro-meteorological network shall support these initiatives.

12 Beneciaries o Department of Meteorology and Hydrology o Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation o Relief and Resettlement Department o General Administration Department o Farming communities at the pilot sites

13 Upgrading of Agro-Met Station Ø Following the stations have finished installation in 2015 Hpa-an Mudon Dawei Lunkyaw Heho Lashio Kengtaung Kyeemon Tharwarwaddy Falam

14 Activity of Farm School in 2015/2016 Ø : Experimental special Agro-Met Bulletin for Pilot areas Ø : FARM School Training in Naung Oo and Monywa Ø : FARM School Training in Monywa Ø : FARM School Training in Naung Oo Ø : Introduction of Agro Advisory System (SESAME) in Nay Pyi Taw Ø : Introduction of Agro Advisory System (SESAME) in Pilot areas Ø : Feedback for Agro Advisory System (SESAME) in Pilot areas

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16 Opening Ceremony of Forecast Application for Risk Management in Agriculture (FARM) School Curriculum Run Through in Nay Pyi Taw on 23 rd Sept, 2014

17 Expertise from DMH, DOA, Irrigation Department, Yezin Agriculture University, DAR, and DAP was tapped in developing thedraft FARM School Curriculum fortesting

18 And then the TOT had gone and applied to the Local Trainers in Nyaung Oo and Monywa within the area of Dry Zone on October, 2014.

19 SESAME: Specialized Expert System for Agro Meteorological Early warning) A web based online platform to generate and disseminate agromet bulletins based on short and medium range weather and climatic parameters Customized for two pilot sites of Dry Zone in Myanmar viz. Nyuang Oo and Monywa. Built on two weather model input datasets ECMWF Deterministic Forecast with 10 days lead time WRF Model data from RIMES with 3 days lead time Capable of ingesting these two datasets and generate 10 days or decadal Agro-Met bulletins ( and fax) and 3 days short-term forecasts disseminated by SMS messages.

20 Specialized Expert System For Agro Meteorological Early-Warning(SESAME) Web Address; System Overview

21 DMH Annual Capacity Self-Assessment 2015, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, Feb 2016

22 Crop Weather Calendar

23 Forecast Advisory

24 CONTENT Ø Introduction of existing Agro-Met services Ø DMH Strategies for Development of Agro-met Activities # Cooperation with RIMES # Proposed Activities under AIRBM Project ØOutputs of Agro-met Reqirements Assessment # From RIMES Capacity Building Assessment # From Agro-met Development Workshop

25 Brief Description on component 2 Component2 (Hydro-met Observation and Information Systems Modernization) Activities

26 Agriculture Climate Advisory Service To improve climate outlooks for farmers To enhance tools for knowledge sharing and advisory services To improve dissemination methods Workshop on DMH strategy for Agrometeorological Development Was already conducted on th June, 2016 at NPT

27 CONTENT Ø Introduction of existing Agro-Met services Ø DMH Strategies for Development of Agro-met Activities # Cooperation with RIMES # Proposed Activities under AIRBM Project ØOutputs of Agro-met Requirements Assessment # RIMES Capacity Building Assessment # Agro-met Development Workshop

28 AGROMET CAPACITY NEED ASSESSMENT

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30 CONTENT Ø Introduction of existing Agro-Met services Ø DMH Strategies for Development of Agro-met Activities # Cooperation with RIMES # Proposed Activities under AIRBM Project ØOutputs of Agro-met Need Assessment # RIMES Capacity Building Assessment # Agro-met Development Workshop (AIRBM Project)

31 Demand for information ØMinistries main users are agriculture and water ministries who need information to support a wide range of decisions. Ø(MOALI) Department of Extension Workers: One of the main mechanisms to provide information to farmers. It was felt that the extension workers needed more training to understand weather forecasting outputs and agricultural advisories so that they communicated them effectively to farmers. ØTownship Steering Committees: These organizations are responsible for issues like land use and managing irrigation and are in regular contact with farmers. ØFarmers: Need to know about monsoon onset, amount of rainfall, number of rainy days in the 10 day period (impact on use of labour, daily schedule, fertilizer application, planting etc...) extreme temperatures and other severe weather warnings. (Once they have been to Farm Climate School there is greater interest in rainfall intensities because their local experience is used link intensity to different flood conditions on the ground). ØLivestock herders: Main interests are extreme heat related to heat stress in livestock and flooding in order to move cattle in time. Therefore severe weather warnings are most relevant. ØFishing communities: Main interests relate to severe weather and personal safety related to flooding and river/lake conditions.

32 Gaps ØCapacity Building o Capacity building at all levels and all operational time scales 1 10 days o Requirement for more capacity building activities with WMO, UN agencies, national agencies to support the modernised observing networks and new forecasting methods. o More training in climate risk management at all levels from Head Office to extension workers and farmers o General development of the agromet profession agricultural staff want to be more competent in interpretation of weather and climate information and meteorologists want more understanding of crops to refine their advisories ØCooperation o Improved cooperation mechanisms including clear SOPs Standard Operating Procedures o Better dissemination down to township level as they don t always get the relevant bulletins from national or regional departments o Use of forecasts for mobilization of finance, labour, machinery and so on to increase production and reduces losses from hazards.

33 Ø Improved weather/climate and agricultural information and products o Intermediate steps in translation of weather forecasts including technical interpretation by agro-met, agricultural, engineering experts and setting in local context. o All agreed on the need to develop better crop calendars and for good collaboration between DoA, DMH and others o Crop statistics to develop understanding of the links between weather/climate and crop production, damage and loss. The associated development of crop vulnerability functions. o Development of improved agricultural indices e.g. growing degree days, frost days, heat stress index, wildfire index etc... o Development and application of remote sensing products or at least a framework/ platform for managing satellite data o Accurate and reliable weather, climate and hydrological information at the national, regional and eventually township level but recognition that better operational products will need to be underpinned by improved foresting that will take some time (through modernization on AIRBM project) o Rainfall intensity data (historical data turned into maps, *.shp files, and to inform design standards

34 o High quality crop data note that data are available from 1999 on harvests, yield, sowing date etc...(these data need to captured in a systematic way and shared see actions). o New improved digital cropping calendars (RIMES have produced two examples in pilot areas) o Land use and land cover mapping o Refinement and potential scaling up of RIMES SESAME tool. This will probably require further feedback, piloting in areas with different crop types and different information needs. Focus future pilot areas based on two criteria climate sensitivity and importance to agricultural production

35 Actions Plan Ø Making better use of existing information o Ensuring that the wide ranges of existing products are widely disseminated using a wide range of channels, particularly facebook.(dmh,moali) o Exploring the feasibility of the development of additional mobile apps for specific target users (RIMES, FAO) o A joint project on the development of crop calendars and understanding links between weather and crops at the district/township level (DMH,MOALI) o A joint project on heavy rainfall and the development of national data sets,guidelines etc...(dmh, MOALI although probably under the DRR components in AIRBM rather than ACAS). o Explore improving application of ECMWF data also potential use of Met Office global MOGREPS 14 day forecasts in existing RIMES project.

36 Ø Building capacity at all levels o Inclusion of agro-meteorology training at DMH and MOALI (FAO, CCAFS, DAR, Yezin University) o Farm extension workers and township committees o Farm schools Ø Making use of improved operational forecasting products o Including agro-meteorological objectives in systems design under World Bank System Integrator work (AIRBM C2) o Improve the observation network (AIRBM C2) including development of existing MOALI observation networks and consideration of low cost observation stations. o Improve numerical weather prediction (AIRBM C2) o Improve seasonal forecasting (Monsoon Forum)

37 CONTACT INFORMATION; Agro-Met Division, DMH; Ph; Fax; Web;