VIPS Warning and prognoses of pests and diseases in Norway

Transcription

1 VIPS Warning and prognoses of pests and diseases in Norway Guro Brodal Bioforsk Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research Plant Health and Plant Protection Division ARVALIS April 2011

2 Overview of presentation Background, objectives and organisation of VIPS Pests and diseases included Fusarium/mycotoxin modelling at Bioforsk Future development/challenges

3 Background and objectives of VIPS Web-site ( for warning and prognoses for pests, diseases and weeds in important agricultural and horticultural crops in Norway, incl. monitoring throughout the plant production areas Open/free for the public (no charge) Assist growers and advisers to assess the need for pesticide treatment (or other alternative measures) Main objective: Reduced risk and correct/precise use of pesticides Developed under a government-funded action for reducing risk connected to the use of pesticides

4 A collaborative project between Bioforsk and Norwegian Agricultural Extension Service Bioforsk Model research and development, damage thresholds Technical implementation Meteorological data (80 weather stations, weather prognoses from the Norwegian Metr. Institute) Extension Service Field trials/biological obs. for model development and for monitoring pests and diseases Communication and advisory services to the farmers

5 The forecasting concept : Climatic data, weather prognoses Biological knowlegde and observations in field Models for development of pests/diseases and host plants Damage thresholds Weather observations and forecasts Biological observations Computerized pest models WWW Results SMS

6 Development/validation of models and monitoring are carried out in three subject groups consisting of scientists, extension service advisors and growers Cereals and oil seed crops Potatoes and vegetables Fruits and berries

7 Elements in models for cereals and oilseed crops Disease/pest Weather data Biological/field data Wheat glume blotch (Stagonospora nodorum) Barley net/spot blotch (Drechslera teres) Barley scald (Rhynchosporium secalis) Powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in barley and wheat Fusarium head blight in wheat and oats DON in harvested crop Sclerotinia stem rot (Sclerotinia sclerotiorum) in oil seed rape rain, rainy days, temperature rain, rainy days, temperature rain, RH, temperature rain, temperature rain, RH, temperature rain variety resistance, previous crop, tillage disease incidence, variety resistance, previous crop, tillage disease incidence, variety resistance, previous crop, tillage disease incidence, variety resistance Flowering date, time flowering - harvest, variety resistance, previous crop, tillage time of flowering, previous crop, crop density, infection previous years

8 Elements in models for potato and vegetables (incomplete) Disease/pest Weather data Biological data Potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) Cabbage moth (Mamestra brassicae) Cabbage root fly (Delia radicum) rain, RH temperature day degrees host plant phenology first late blight obs host plant phenology number of eggs (traps) Carrot root fly (Psila rosae) number of flies (traps) Alternaria disease in chinese cabbage (2008?) Bremia lactuca in lettuce (2007) rain, RH, temperature, leaf wetness rain, RH, temperature, leaf wetness

9 Elements in models for fruit and berries (incomplete) Disease/pest Weather data Biological data Apple scab (Venturia inequalis) rain, RH, temperature, leaf wetness tree phenology, ascospore maturation Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) day degrees, temperature at sunset pheromone traps, flowering (petal falls) Apple fruit moth (Argyresthia conjugella) Grey mould (Botrytis cinerea) in strawberry day degrees (optimal treatment timing) rain, RH, temperature, leaf wetness abundance rowan berries, % berries with larva, natural enemies, flowering

10 VIPS weeds in cereals A DDS for choice of herbicide and doses (adapted from PVO) The growers need to observe the main weeds in the field

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12 Forecasting model to assess the need for fungicide treatment in wheat

13 Mycotoxin modelling by Oleif Elen at Bioforsk Variables in forecasting model for DON in wheat (assess need for fungicide treatment) RH during four weeks: From two weeks before anthesis to the second week after anthesis (number of days/week with relative humidity >75 %), last week requires weather forecast Location (different models for different regions) Cultivar resistance Tillage Different interactions between location, plowing, cultivar resistance and RH

14 Forecasting model to assess the need for fungicide treatment in oats

15 Variables in forecasting model for DON in oats (for decision about fungicide treatment) RH and rain during eight weeks: From six weeks before anthesis to the second week after anthesis (number of days/week > 2mm precipitation, and with relative humidity >75 %), last week requires weather forecast Loaction: Solør/Romerike (river valley) Soiltype Cultivar resistance Precrop (one and two years before) Soil cultivation Lodging Different interactions between location, plowing, cultivar resistance, RH.

16 Oats severly toxin-contaminated in Norway since 2004

17 Model to estimate DON content in oat grain

18 Results of estimation of DON content in oat grain

19 Conclusions High correlation between rain in July and DON in grain Weather factors through the entire growing season seem to have impact on DON content in oat and spring wheat grain Need for better information about the inoculum potential in the field and perhaps also information about airborne inoculum?

20 Improving pest and disease forecasts complex topography > large spatial variation in climate conditions -> limit the range where pest forecasts are valid

21 Research goal: Local relevance moving services to the farm level

22 From weatherstation-based to farm-based forecasts, two approaches for improving input data: Weather data interpolation combined with radar measurements of rainfall (Nordic weather radars) Weather forecasting models (run at higher and higher resolutions and is approaching the single farm level) Pilot-project : - potato late blight - Fusarium head blight/don in oats