Adapting to Climate Change and beyond: Issues for developing Countries

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1 Adapting to Climate Change and beyond: Issues for developing Countries Srikantha Herath Senior Academic Programme Officer Global Change and Sustainability Programme United Nations University Institute for Sustainability and Peace October 28, 2009

2 Needs of developing countries in responding to climate change Based on the level of development, and the lcocal conditions, climate change concerns will be different for different countries. Climate change is going to have the biggest impact on the least developed countries and adaptation to change is their priority. For the rapidly developing countries the challenge is on meeting huge energy demands to support the economic expansion, while containing emissions.

3 Issues for least developed countries Developing countries are the most affected from CC, although they have the least contribution to GHG emissions. They depend heavily on agriculture and the poorest are engaged on it. Agriculture and water sectors will be the most critical sectors for DC. Increase of CO2 will have a positive impact due is increased photosynthesis. However, with time, high temperatures and irregular rain will have a negative impact on the agriculture production. 60% developing countries food comes from 80% of arable land without irrigation - vulnerable to CC.

4 Issues for Developing countries Water scarcity to increase due to agriculture demands Mega deltas affected by Sea Level Rise Salinity Intrusion affects agriculture and water supply Risk of extreme floods can increase dramatically Viet Nam Salinity ranking < 1 g/l 1-4 g/l 4-15 g/l > 15 g/l Source: Text Text SIWRP, 2008 Year 2000 SLR 100 cm Source: IMHEN 2009 SLR: 0.65 m Inundation: 5130 km 2 (13%) SLR: 1.00 m Inundation: km 2 (38%)

5 Issues: Water too little & water too much Water scarcity will increase due to increase in consumption and increasing economic activities Rainless periods will increase in climate change scenarios Flood losses are increasing globally, due to increased exposure and other drivers, notably urbanization. Rain intensities will further increase due to climate change making flood problems more difficult to cope up Water Scarcity: UN-Water 2007 Physical WSc Approaching Ph.WSc Economic WSc Water Dependency Ratio

6 Agriculture and Poverty Agriculture in GDP % on Less than $1 a day > 50 > High degree of dependence on agriculture is closely related to poverty

7 Coping Capacity Small farm owners are have the least capacity to cope up with climate change. Resilience is low as surplus income is low. Farmers are used to climate variability, especially in the tropics, where inter-annual rainfalls could vary by 2-3 times. However, they experience a gradual decline of weather conditions favorable to farming, in addition to variability. Water resources, suitable crop varieties, alternative livelihoods, are some of the options that need to be considered as adaptive measures.

8 Victims of Climate change Climate change is environmental as well as a political challenge April 2007, UN Sec. Council on climate change. Yoweri Musevini (2007, AUS) President of Uganda, Climate change is an act of aggression by the developed world against the developing world. Demanded compensation for the damage global warming would cause African nations. Kaire Mbuede (2007) Namibian representative to the United Nations, developing countries, in particular, had been subjected to what could be described as low intensity biological or chemical warfare. Need to develop pragmatic programs for adaptation and mitigation to effectively respond to climate change challenges.

9 Moving forward Adaptation is a local issue Depends on geographical, climatic, bio-physical as well as socio-economic characteristics While impacts are local, benefits of adaptation investment are also local (different from mitigation) Climate change increase impacts on existing vulnerabilities Adaptation is a development issue Build climate resilience in development planning Has to be different from present ODA practices. Solutions should evolve locally considering local socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Developing local capacity for this, supported by the global knowledge and experience is the key concern.

10 Designing adaptation measures How to assess Climate Only impacts? How to priori6ze measures and avoid mal adapta6on? Effect B Dev. Goals / Policies Impact D Climate Change Impact C Water, Food, etc. Effect A Impact Action Matrix method (IAM) shows the complex relations among development goals and impacts on different sectors. Solutions: Long term & Local

11 Designing adaptation strategies Effective and feasible adaptation strategies would differ by sector, nature of impacts, such as rapid on set of extreme events or creeping changes as crop yield reduction. Considerable amount of research and studies need to be done to clarify appropriate approaches as well as methodologies for mainstreaming adaptation into development. Need to establish international support for implementing agencies and research institutions to lead national adaptation strategy development and rapid transfer of research and current knowledge to practice.

12 Concerns of rapidly developing countries Low Lower middle Upper middle High No data (total emissions since 1950, billions of tons) from Micheal Glantz, NCAR Bank Analogy Contribution to mitigation based on ability to pay and past use - bank analogy - Prof. Kirk Smith, published by UNU more than a decade ago

13 Ability and Responsibility to pay Contribution to mitigation based on ability to pay and past use Bank analogy - Prof. Kirk Smith, published by UNU more than a decade ago Borrow from the global environment to support development. Return after the development, so that others can use the same environmental services Pragmatic measures have to be developed to meet the mitigation challenges by rapidly developing countries Sharing clean energy technologies, joint development of new appropriate technologies would be the key requirements.

14 Need to integrate Research, Capacity Development and Applications for adaptation and mitigation Higher Education Research on CCA & M Collaboration among operational agencies and research programs: identifying data, needs, national plans, etc. Field Stations for research and supporting projects for application/verification Capacity development programs for training a large number of competent persons. Suppor.ng Post graduate Research Na.onal training programs for researchers and prac..oners Demonstra.on Project Dissemina.on of results to policy makers Training of trainers

15 University network for Climate and Ecosystems Adaptation Research (UN-CECAR) 3

16 Training for Professionals UN and other International/ National Partners Global/Regional Initiatives & Programmes University Adaptation Network Research needs Nairobi Work program International Programme on Landslides International Flood Initiative Dissemination (EfSD, etc.) International Professionals Multidisciplinary exchange UNU P.G. P P.G Program mes P.G Progra mmes Data collection Information Research topics Knowledge sharing Community empowerment Networking at Local and national level Local Community Local Community Local Community

17 Towards a low carbon society Theres is an urgent need is to create new livelihood opportuni.es and provide an enabling environment in which the communi.es mostly affected by climate change can define their own programs based on local needs. Ability to understand climate change impacts locally is very important to design appropriate adapta.on strategies. Enhancing capacity of higher educa.on sector in the developing countries offer best hope to successfully address the capacity development needs.

18 Towards a low carbon society Ensuring availability of knowledge, experiences and exper.se globally for adapta.on under UN framework is very much desired. A global ins.tu.on for adapta.on and mi.ga.on support may be established in partnership with UN to provide necessary technology and support for adapta.on and mi.ga.on planing for developing countries. Such transfer can be implemented through na.onal level ins.tu.ons for climate change similar to current disaster management centers (DMCs).