Sudan Seasonal Monitor

Transcription

1 Sudn Sesonl Monitor Sudn Meteorologicl Authority Federl Ministry of Agriculture nd Forestry Issue 6 Novemer 2007 Summry The rinfll seson of 2007 is coming to n end; t this stge only Southern Sudn regions nd the Estern costl regions of Red Se re le to enjoy some rinfll. The period of mid-octoer to erly Novemer ws mrkedly dry cross most of Sudn, though with South Kordofn still enjoying some lte rins. In Southern Sudn, dry conditions previled in elt extending from North Bhr-el-Ghzl through Lkes into Centrl Equtori. See Pges 1-2 Sesonl vegettion development indictors summrise the dignostics presented in this Bulletin throughout the seson mximum development ws well ove the verge in prticulr cross the semi-rid regions of Sudn (Drfur to Kssl nd in Est Equtori). See Pge 3 Detiled exmintion of prticulr lnd cover units (psture nd griculturl domins) confirms sitution of erlier strts of the growing seson (in plces y s much s one month) nd consistently ove verge vegettion levels. This is prticulrly more evident in the more mrginl semi-rid regions, where levels reched this seson re likely to e one of the highest in the recent record. See Pges 4-7 In Southern Sudn the trditionl crops re mostly in, ut lck of lte seson rinfll cn impct on the lte mturing sorghum crop in Lkes nd Upper Nile. The 2007 FAO/WFP Crop nd Food Supply Assessment Mission for Southern Sudn lrgely confirmed the sessments mde in this Bulletin during the seson one of the highest yields in recent yers nd significnt expnsion in cultivted res. However, there ws negtive impct from flooding nd overll production levels re similr to 2005, firly good seson. See Pge 8 In Northern Sudn, the GoNU led griculturl production surveys re tking plce now nd should produce preliminry results in erly Jnury. Menwhile, Stte reports confirmed expecttions defined in erlier issues - increses in plnted re y trditionl frmers (where lnd is ville) nd higher thn verge crop yields. In mechnized griculturl res, vrile decrese in re plnted for the mjor crop (sorghum) ut yields t etter thn verge levels, except for lte plnted crops which re expected to perform poorly. See Pge 8 All considered expecttions re for incresed production in the trditionl sector reltive to verge nd lst yer's nd stle or slight decresed production in the mechnized sector. Octoer nd erly Novemer Rinfll in Sudn Southern Sudn Novemer rings the lst rins cross most of the region, with only the southernmost Greenelt res still expecting to enjoy some rinfll through Decemer. Octoer sw mostly drier thn verge conditions cross the South, in prticulr in elt extending from North Bhr-el-Ghzl through Lkes into Centrl Equtori where rinfll ws round 40% of the verge. Jonglei ws lso in generl drier thn verge. Sesonl rinfll mounts in 2007 in Southern Sudn now rnge from close to 1600mm in the res ordering Congo to more thn 600mm in Est Equtori nd 800mm in northern Upper Nile. The recent drier period hsn t chnged the sesonl picture totl rinfll (Mrch to present) remins ove verge (Fig 2) everywhere cross the region, prticulrly so in the Southest (Kpoet region). This hs hd very cler impct on vegettion levels s shown in the Vegettion Sttus section (see Fig 3). Sudn Sesonl Monitor 1

2 Fig 1 Rinfll mounts in Octoer (), nd in the first ten dys of Novemer (). Fig 2 () Sesonl rinfll mounts from Mrch to erly Novemer 2007; () sme ut expressed s rtio of the verge sesonl rinfll over the sme period yellows nd red for elow verge mounts, greens nd lues for ove verge mounts Northern Sudn In this region, only South Kordofn nd Blue Nile sttes registered significnt rinfll in Octoer with other regions (Est mostly) experiencing smll mounts. No more rinfll is expected this seson in Northern Sudn. The exception is the Red Se costl regions which enjoy their min rinfll seson in Novemer-Decemer. Sesonl mounts exceeding 200mm ( minimum for sprsely plnted erly mturing crops) were registered further north thn usul this seson covering ll of North Kordofn nd extending into River Nile nd Red Se sttes. Across the region, totl rinfll mounts re now 40% to 100% ove verge (Fig 2) in mrginl northern res levels cn rech 300% or more ut this is simply due to verge rinfll in these regions eing very low (nd hence very high rtios cn e esily otined). Acknowledgements The ove rinfll mps re derived from comintion of stellite nd ground (ringuge) dt. In Southern Sudn, the existing network is complemented y numer of ringuges whose dt is gthered nd provided y the Southern Sudn WFP VAM Unit. This extends dt coverge over remote regions, gretly incresing locl ccurcy of the mps. Next seson SIFSIA-South will support Southern Sudnese uthorities to deploy their own network. We re lso thnkful to the TAMSAT Group t the Dept Meteorology, University of Reding, UK who hve een providing ck up stellite dt for these mps. SIFSIA-North is restoring stellite dt reception cpcity t the Sudn Meteorologicl Authority in Khrtoum to introduce monitoring system sed exclusively on dt ville in Sudn. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 2

3 Vegettion Sttus Vegettion condition nd development re ssessed y mens of the (Normlized Difference Vegettion Index) this is stellite derived prmeter which responds (lmost) uniquely to vegettion nd is ville on glol scle every ten dys. Across lmost the whole of Sudn, the pek vegettion development hs pssed. One wy to summrise the qulity of the vegettion development throughout the seson is y mens of the sesonl mximum of the. Compring the 2007 mximum with the verge of the mxim for previous yers, provides simple ut effective ssessment of the qulity of the 2007 seson. The result is shown in Fig 3. The overll conclusion is clerly evident mximum levels in 2007 reched well ove verge vlues, in prticulr in elt extending from Drfur cross Kordofn nd into the estern regions from Sennr to Kssl. These re semi rid res of trnsition etween the wetter regions of the South nd the desert regions of the North nd s such re typiclly suject to lrge vriility in rinfll nd vegettion from seson to seson. Here significnt vritions in rinfll hve the gretest impct upon vegettion development. In Southern Sudn, the sitution is not so well mrked here vegettion levels re lwys high nd it is difficult to get significnt devitions from the verge. However, note the much higher thn verge levels in the southesternmost region of Est Equtori. Agin this is semi-rid region of trnsition etween the wetter regions to its north nd west nd the desertic regions of northern Keny nd s such suject to high vriility in rinfll nd vegettion. This vegettion response is clerly due to the to the widespred nd consistently ove verge rinfll tht hs ffected virtully the whole country throughout this seson (with the exception of the lst stges from mid Septemer onwrds). Note the correspondence etween the mp presented in Fig 2 (sesonl rinfll compred to verge) nd the one in Fig 3. This confirms the picture of good ll round conditions for crop nd psture development during On the negtive side, there were significnt (though difficult to quntify) impcts on crop production due to excessive rinfll, loclised flooding nd wter logging. These re judged to hve een more significnt in Southern Sudn. Fig 3 Mximum in the 2007 seson compred to the verge sesonl mximum; Yellows nd reds represent elow verge vegettion development, greens nd lues represent ove verge vegettion development. This illustrtes the high levels reched y vegettion in the 2007 seson s consequence of the plentiful (ifnot excessive) rinfll cross the country. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 3

4 Regionl Anlysis This section provides more focused nlysis, showing vegettion development profiles for specific lnd cover types, e.g. lrge griculturl fields, psture res. Technicl Note - Profiles : One prolem with the nlysis of profiles is tht the lone cnnot tell you wht type of vegettion you re looking t. To overcome this prolem you need lnd cover informtion. The plots presented in this section use technique developed y the Europen Community's Joint Reserch Centre. This technique, C- (Crop-specific ), integrtes dt with AFRICOVER, comprehensive lnd cover dt set for Est Afric prepred y FAO. In simple terms, vlues re extrcted nd verged for specific lnd cover clsses nd suclsses, e.g. psture (dry nd wet), griculture (clustered smll fields, isolted smll fields, lrge continuous fields, irrigted, etc). This llows users to nlyse profiles which reflect the ehviour of the required type of lnd cover, while minimising interference from other lnd cover types. The technique hs recently een instlled t the Sudn Meteorologicl Authority nd is used in these Bulletins to provide region nd gronomiclly specific informtion. Southern Sudn The indictions provided y the stellite dt out the 2007 griculturl seson were confirmed in definitive wy y the Crop nd Food Supply Assessment Mission for Southern Sudn which visited extensive res of the territory during lte Octoer. Pstorl Ares - Est Equtori nd Upper Nile Kpoet Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Upper Nile Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Fig 4, for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for pstorl res in Est Equtori, Kpoet loclity () nd Upper Nile (). Note in () exceptionl vegettion levels nd persistence of higher thn verge vegettion t hroughout In () current seson conditions more fvourle thn verge nd 2006 In the semi-rid lowlnds of esternmost Est Equtori, current psture conditions still remin ove verge though in drying trend (Fig 4). The regions usully enjoys some Winter rinfll which should lift up vegettion levels gin. It hs nevertheless een record yer for psture nd wter, key resources for livestock. In Upper Nile (Fig 4), psture conditions in 2007 were lso very fvourle, though less exceptionl. Greenness hs een consistently ove verge, fter timely strt of the seson in mid June, indicting good psture development t levels comprle or etter thn lst seson s. The sttus of psture for these two widely seprted regions re representtive of the psture sitution cross most of Southern Sudn during the 2007 seson. Agriculturl Ares - Centrl Equtori nd Wrp. In Centrl Equtori, vegettion developed ccording to usul timings nd its levels hve een very close to verge nd similr to the 2006 seson (Fig 5). Rinfll hs een good nd well distriuted nd in ccordnce, 2007 turned out to e good griculturl seson coming fter 2006 (itself very good seson). The griculturl regions of centrl Wrp stte (lrgely growing sorghum nd groundnut) hve (like most of Southern Sudn) enefited from erly or timely rrivl of the rins. The stellite dt reveled the erlier strt of the seson nd stedy ove verge vegettion development throughout the seson (Fig 5) nd from the middle of the yer mde cler tht 2007 would e fine griculturl seson for frmers in Wrp, rodly similr to the very good (if not exceptionl) 2006 seson. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 4

5 Centrl Eq Trd Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Wrp Trd Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Fig 5, for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for griculturl regions in () centrl Wrp stt e (NW of Wrp town) nd () griculturl regions in Centrl Equtori stte (region SW of Ju town) Northern Sudn Pstorl Ares - Blue Nile, Gedref, North Kordofn, West Drfur Blue Nile Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Gedref Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge North Kordofn Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge West Drfur Psture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge c d Fig 6,, c, d for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for psture res in () Blue Nile, () Gedref, (c) North Kordofn nd (d) West Drfur. Note erlier nd stronger thn verge vegettion development cross ll regions, specilly in the more rid ones. During 2007, psture res cross Northern Sudn displyed exceptionl development, oth hed of time nd t well ove verge levels, in prticulr in the more northern res from West nd North Drfur, Kordofn to Gedref nd Kssl (see Fig 6 for exmples). At this stge of the seson, vegettion levels re ck to or heding towrds dry seson conditions following the end of the rinfll. The high sesonl pek of this seson clerly indictes high green iomss production nd fine psture conditions. The high rinfll tht led to this, will lso hve resulted in enhnced wter resources for livestock. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 5

6 Mechnized Agriculture Ares Blue Nile Mech Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge White Nile Mech Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Gedref Mech Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Kssl Mech Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge c d Sennr Mech Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge S Kordofn Mech Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge e f Fig 7,, c, d NDV I for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for ll mjor mechnized griculture regions of Sudn : () Blue Nile, () White Nile, (c) Gedref, (d) Kssl, (e) Sennr nd (f) South Kordofn. Note erlier nd stronger thn verge vegettion development cross ll regions. Mechnized frming res cross Sudn re displying firly similr ptterns of vegettion development, since rinfll hs een plentiful nd ove verge cross ll of Northern Sudn. On ll loctions nlysed, vegettion development took off round mid July in most cses in n unprecedented wy to levels well ove verge nd The initil development is due to nturl vegettion responding quickly to first rinflls; lnd preprtion nd seeding took plce slightly lter (out 20 dys). All dt nd derived indictors point s well s spot checks in the Est of the country point in the sme direction : crops hve developed fvourly cross ll mechnized griculturl regions with yields expected to e ove verge nd similr if not higher thn 2006 levels see the curves in Figure 7 for ll mjor mechnized regions. Kssl (nd lso White Nile) is expected to see the lrger positive differences in yield, while in Gedref yields should e closer to the verge. The fctor yet to e quntified is how much re hs een plnted nd will e hrvested. Relile figures will e ville in erly Jnury 2008 when the results of the griculturl production surveys come in while preliminry figues from Stte uthorities my e ville somewht sooner. Expecttions re for reduction in re plnted/hrvested which will contriute to lnce out the etter thn verge yields. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 6

7 Trditionl Agriculture Ares Gezir, North Kordofn, North Drfur nd South Drfur Gezir Est Trditionl Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge N Kordofn Trditionl Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge S Drfur Trditionl Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge N Drfur Trditionl Agro: 2006, 2007 vs Averge c d Fig 8,, c, d for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for trditionl griculturl res in () Gezir, () North Kordofn, (c) South Drfur nd (d) North Drfur. Note erlier nd stronger thn verge vegettion development cross most regions. This seson, trditionl griculture cross northern Sudn enjoyed exceptionl conditions Fig 8 shows tht vegettion/crop development strted erly nd reched levels well ove verge nd in most cses ove lst seson. This will trnslte into etter thn verge production levels. This rises ecuse the etter thn usul rinfll leds not only to incresed yields ut lso to increses in re plnted y trditionl frmers (where lnd for expnsion is ville). This increse ws more mrked in the more mrginl res, where there is more room for increses in production. It is expected tht smll frmer production this seson rech levels close to the potentil tht cn e chieved under predominnt prctices nd level of inputs. Irrigted Ares Sennr nd Kssl Sennr Irrigted Agriculture: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Kssl Irrigted: 2006, 2007 vs Averge Fig 9, for 2007, 2006 nd verge (LTA) for irrigted res in () Sennr nd () Kssl. Note once gin erlier thn usul green-up nd much higher thn verge vlues. In the irrigted sector the pnorm is gin one of erly strts nd well ove verge vegettion levels. This is evident in the two exmples presented in Fig 9 for Sennr nd Kssl (Hlf el Jdid), ut it is lso the cse cross ll irrigted perimeters of Sudn (Gezir, Suki, Rhd). High rinfll levels hve minimised supplementry irrigtion demnds. So fr expecttions re for high yields nd reduced irrigtion costs. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 7

8 Preliminry Indictions for Agriculturl Production Southern Sudn The 2007 Crop nd Food Supply Assessment Mission for Southern Sudn hs concluded its work in erly Novemer. Most of the cerel hrvest in Southern Sudn is concluded except for very lte mturing sorghum vrieties in Upper Nile, Lkes nd Est Equtori which will e hrvested in lte Decemer erly Jnury, nd for which suitle rinfll is still required. Fvourle rinfll mounts nd distriution hd een clerly identified in the rinfll nd vegettion mps presented in this Bulletin throughout the seson nd the CFSAM confirmed its fvourle consequences increses in yield nd re ll cross the region. On the other hnd, there ws considerle impct of flooding on production indictions re up to 56,000h from 89,000 households cross 6 sttes my hve een ffected. Other crops such s groundnut nd cssv hve lso done very well. Summry results indicte tht cerel (mostly sorghum, some millet) production levels re similr to those of 2005, with 848,000h producing 859,000MT the estimted yield (1.01ton/h) is the highest in the recent yers ut comes from smller re due to flooding. This leds to n ggregted deficit of 101,000MT for n estimted popultion which includes spontneous nd orgnized returnees. This excludes the crop production from the mechnized sector in northernmost Upper Nile (Er Renk re) estimted t 159,000 MT. Grin from this re which is now dministrtively prt of Southern Sudn is y nd lrge mrketed in the North. As fr s livestock is concerned, fvourle sitution is lso reported. Psture levels re good or very good s hd een identified in this Bulletin, nd ground spot checks y the Mission reveled generlized improved livestock ody condition. Northern Sudn Production estimtes will e soon ville from two mjor sources Stte Ministries of Agriculture ssessments nd the Federl Agriculturl Production Estimtes Surveys (APES). The former hve vrying degrees of ccurcy rnging from surveys sed on proper smpling schemes nd crop cutting (e.g. Gezir stte rinfed griculture), to cursory overviews nd visul estimtes. Stte MoA results re now eing collected for presenttion in the finl issue of this Bulletin for The Federl APES hve strted in mid Novemer, with first phse dedicted to the smpling frme preprtion for the mechnized sector nd to the estimtion of the trditionl sector production y mens of either crop cutting or frmer interviews. A second phse will egin in mid Decemer with the field work in the mechnized sector y mens of crop cutting. Preliminry results re expected in mid Jnury nd finl results y the end of the sme month. All field smples re eing geo-locted so s to undertke experimentl nlysis involving integrtion of field dt with remote sensing informtion ( nd rinfll derived prmeters). Hrvest in the more mrginl trditionl griculture res (Gezir, North Kordofn, Kssl) is close to ending. In the mechnized sector, hrvests hve just strted nd will extend well into Jnury, given the wide spred of plnting dtes in this sector. Yields from the lte plnted crops re expected to e firly poor. The fvourle rinfll regime this seson will led to yields mostly higher thn verge nd higher thn lst yer's cross oth trditionl nd mechnized sectors. To evlute production levels, it is necessry to know how re plnted/hrvested will respond to good rinfll. The impcts re different for the trditionl nd the mechnized sector in the trditionl sector frmers tend to increse the plnted re when rinfll is fvourle, ssuming there is lnd for expnsion; higher production cn e esily sored y the trditionl household either to fully/etter cover household needs nd/or to generte extr income (y sle in locl mrkets). In the mechnized sector, the price tht the grin is likely to fetch is the min determinnt. Expecttions re tht re plnted/hrvested in the trditionl sector will hve incresed specilly so in the more mrginl regions, while it will hve reduced to vrying degrees in the mechnized sector. All considered we expect incresed production in the trditionl sector reltive to verge nd lst yer's nd stle or slight decresed production in the mechnized sector. Sudn Sesonl Monitor 8