Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project Lois Wright Morton, Project Director Iowa State University SARE Carbon, Energy, & Climate September 27, 2012 Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University This research is part of a regional collaborative project supported by the USDA-NIFA, Award No : Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project: Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems Project Web site: sustainablecorn.org

2 1. Climate & Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP) 2. What does social science tell us about farmer perceptions of climate change, adaptation and mitigation?

3 Importance of Corn Major cereal crop in the United States 75% of world caloric intake from corn, rice, soybean and wheat 70% of U.S. corn crop produced in Upper Midwest

4 Climate and Agriculture in the Midwest Longer growing season - shifted frost dates Warmer winters Warmer nights More frequent severe precipitation events Greater annual stream flows Increased humidity within canopy

5 Agriculture and Climate Climate scientists agree that long-term weather patterns will continue to change; however, there is great uncertainty and little research regarding how these global climate changes will impact local and regional cropping systems.

6 Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project The 11 institutions comprising the project team include the following Land Grant Universities and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS): Iowa State University, Lincoln University, Michigan State University, The Ohio State University, Purdue University, South Dakota State University, University of Illinois, University of Minnesota, University of Missouri, University of Wisconsin, and USDA-ARS Columbus, Ohio.

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8 Vision: to create a coordinated functional network to develop science-based knowledge on climate mitigation and adaptation that informs policy development and guides on-farm, watershed level, and public decision making.

9 Objectives 1. Develop standardized methodologies and perform baseline monitoring of carbon, nitrogen and water footprints at agricultural test sites across the Midwest. 2. Evaluate how crop management practices impact carbon, nitrogen and water footprints at test sites. Corn-soybean baseline Extended rotation with wheat Cover crop with corn-soybean rotation Tillage Controlled drainage N-sensing Water balance on organic extended rotation 3. Apply models to research data and climate scenarios to identify impacts and outcomes that could affect the sustainability and economic vitality of corn-based cropping systems.

10 4. Social & economic. Gain knowledge of farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change, attitudes toward adaptative and mitigative strategies and practices, and decision support needs to inform the development of tools and practices that support long-term sustainability of crop production. 5. Promote extension, outreach and stakeholder learning and participation across all aspects of the program. 20 Extension educators 6. Train the next generation of scientists, develop science education curricula and promote learning opportunities for high school teachers and students. 35 graduate students

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12 A corn-based system with a light environmental footprint A suite of practices for corn-based systems that under long term changing weather conditions reduce/eliminate off-field nitrogen losses Retain carbon Resistant to drought reduce soil and nutrient losses under saturated soils & flood conditions ensure productivity

13 What does social science tell us about farmer perceptions of climate change, adaptation and mitigation? CSCAP Social Science team J. Gordon Arbuckle Jr. and Lois Wright Morton Jon Hobbs and Adam Loy John Tyndall and Gabrielle Roesch

14 The CSCAP Survey of Corn Farmers in Upper Midwest Survey design: Partnership with NIFA-funded Useful to Useable (U2U) project Sample stratified by 22 HUC6 watersheds representing ~60% of U.S. corn production 4,778 farmers: 26% response rate

15 Farmer survey rationale: Agriculture is both vulnerable to climate shifts and a source of the GHGs driving changes Climate-change related threats to agriculture represent threats to society; calls for adaptation and mitigation strategies increasing

16 Further, Behavioral adjustment to natural hazards depends on perceptions of risks, which are mediated by beliefs about (1) the existence of the hazard and (2) its characteristics. If farmers do not believe that climate change is happening or do not perceive it as a threat, they will not likely undertake adaptive or mitigative actions

17 Primary research question: What are the relationships between farmer beliefs about climate change, perceptions of climaterelated risk, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation actions? Do farmers believe climate change is occurring? Are they concerned about potential impacts? Do they support individual and collective adaptive and mitigative action?

18 There is increasing discussion about climate change and its potential impacts. Please select the statement that best reflects your beliefs about climate change: Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities Climate change is occurring, and it is caused equally by natural changes in the environment and human activities Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty whether climate change is occurring or not 8% 33% 25% 31% Climate change is not occurring 4%

19 Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities 8% Climate change is occurring, and it is caused equally by natural changes in the environment and human activities 33% Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment 25% There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty whether climate change is occurring or not 31% Climate change is not occurring 4% Climate change is occurring 66% Humans are at least partly responsible 41%

20 Perceived Risks Developed questions based on predicted impacts of climate change on Corn Belt agriculture How concerned are you about the following potential problems for your farm operation? Drought and heat Excess water issues Pest and disease issues Nutrient loss Soil erosion

21 Concerns about Drought and Heat (percent concerned or very concerned)

22 Concerns about Excess Water Issues (percent concerned or very concerned)

23 Concerns about Pests and Disease (percent concerned or very concerned)

24 Concerns about Soil Erosion and Nutrient Loss (percent concerned or very concerned)

25 Next Steps More sophisticated analyses of relationships between belief, risk, attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation Incorporation of other variables in analyses Current practices, use of decision tools, especially weather-related Influence of organizations and individuals: NRCS, seed dealers, etc variables from the Census of Agriculture: Farm type, revenue, etc. Multilevel modeling that nests farmers in watersheds to control for spatial variation in experience of extreme events Drought, extreme precipitation, disease, pests, etc. Examine concern regarding specific threats: Drought, water, pests and disease

26 An example of what we might learn from a more detailed analyses Findings from 2011 Iowa Farm & Rural Life Poll (annual statewide random sample survey of Iowa farmers conducted by ISU Sociology Extension) Mail survey to 2030 Iowa farmers, response rate 63% February 2011

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29 Take away messages [for Iowa farmers in Spring 2011] 1. Many Iowa farmers believe climate change is happening and believe they should take steps to adapt 2. Most farmers do not agree that mitigation, at least by government, should be supported 3. Farmers are more likely to be more responsive to adaptation strategies rather than mitigation actions 4. Farmers are likely to be concerned about climate and adapt without engaging their belief systems about climate causality 5. Ingenuity (innovation and new technologies) are expected to solve many of the problems that climate change creates 6. Institutions that farmers trust have significant direct influence on beliefs about climate causality 7. Institutional trust is an underlying factor in level of concern and support for actions

30 Work in Progress---More to Come This research is part of a regional collaborative project supported by the USDA-NIFA, Award No : Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project: Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems Project Web site: sustainablecorn.org