Interactions between Climate Change and Agriculture: A systemsbased

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2 Interactions between Climate Change and Agriculture: A systemsbased approach Agustin del Prado 1) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change agustin.delprado@bc3research.org 2

3 Global Context Sutton et al Too much of a good thing. Nature 472, Rockström et al A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461,

4 INTRODUCTION: ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION So far, there have not been integration between adaptation and mitigation research Need to reconcile adaptation and mitigation in agriculture (Olesen, 2006) Main Reason: Policies and commun sense. CAP WFD etc Strategy: Interdisciplinary and system based approaches 1. Adaptation Res. to include environmental and society-related impacts 2. Mitigation Res. to include assesment of how mitigation measures are compatible with global changes (e.g. CC) and resulting farming systems 4

5 INTRODUCTION: ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION Adaptation: 1. Short term (sowing dates, fertilizer, grazing period ) 2. Long term (breeding,new soil&waste management ) Mitigation: 1. energy use and source (non fossil fuel?), 2. C sequestration in soils 3. changes in animal, manures, soil, plant, waste (CH 4, N 2 O), Reduction (%) of GHG emissions after implementation of mitigation measures Del Prado et al. (2010) Changes in adaptation will influence emissions of GHG, other pollutants and 5

6 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Know Impacts to Adapt: Primary effects Precipitation Intensity Volume Temperature CO 2 Changes in light quality Increased CO 2 concentrations 6

7 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Know Impacts to Adapt: 2 ndary Effects Surface erosion Run off vs CO 2 CO 2 Soil biota Phenology Senescence LAI Soil processes PET etc... 7

8 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Crop productivity scale CO 2 Del Hierro et al (NEIKER) 8

9 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Plant scale Muñoz-Rueda et al. (UPV/EHU) CO 2 9

10 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Plant-animal (grazing potential) CO 2 Aldezabal et al (UPV/EHU) 10

11 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE Soil health (or quality) Garbisu et al (NEIKER) Becerril et al (UPV/EHU) CO 2 11

12 INTRODUCTION: A NEED FOR SYSTEM-BASED APPROACHES Too complicated to study all the interactions, side-effects... e.g. N and C flows Models that can integrate most issues at the relevant scale to see the whole picture 12

13 AN EXAMPLE STUDY USING THIS TYPE OF APPROACH The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impacts of climate change per se on productivity, pollution losses, other sustainability attributes from dairy systems (intensive) in Britain. Adaptation & Mitigation are not studied here but the approach could be used for that Del Prado et al. 2011a. Modelling the effect of climate change only on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems. Presented at N and Global Change Conference April 11-14, Funded by (AC0307) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change Rothamstead Res., North Wyke (UK) SAC Research, Edinburgh, (UK)

14 INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH LOCATION FARM TYPOLOGIES Fully indoor Half-year indoor Extended Grazing UKCIP02-baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s (50 years of each time slice) HadCM3 Modelling grassland prod. SAC Dates of cuts DM yield Digestibility Crude protein Modified version New soil-water balance submodel BC3/RotRes. Soil moisture, mm/mm Meas'd soil m sim'd soil m Pollution/ha /Lmilk (impacts) Day number FARM SAC= Scottish Agricultural College; RotRes= Rothamsted Research 14

15 Characteristics Del Prado et al. (Rothamsted Res. (UK), BC3) Simulates the effect of management x genetics x soil x climate on N and P flows, transformations & losses in the soil-plant-animal Losses of CH 4 Animal performance & needs Farm economics Other atributes of sustainability Semi process-based / optimisation farm scale (holistic), includes pre-farm gate GHG Time-step: daily, monthly Incorporates maize, clover and grass as posible forages to grow In progress: anaerobic digestion process, all C flows (including soil C changes). In progress?: Impacts on ecosyst. services Modification for other conditions (e.g. B Country) 15

16 RESULTS: CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY (MILK/ha) SC NE NW YH WA SW WM EM SE EE In general, CC increased plant biomass production and grazing potential season. Increase in light intensity, balance between greater temperatures but some smaller rainfall 16

17 RESULTS: CHANGES IN N 2 O LOSSES AND LEACHING (EXAMPLES) EE Variable! SC NE NW YH SC N 2 O (GHG) WA WM EM EE SW SE 17 Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (annual) SW (South West) Average NO 3 -N in leachate (annual)

18 OTHER RESULTS: LOOKING AT THE WHOLE PICTURE Poorer values are represented outside blue shape 18

19 WHAT IF SYSTEMS ADAPT? Examples: adapting to more potential for grazing (e.g. one month more grazing) Poorer values are represented outside blue shape 19

20 WHAT IF SYSTEMS ADAPT AND TRY TO MITIGATE GHG? Examples: more maize (less grass), other grass breeds (HSG)? HSG: 4% more productivity (data not shown) How many years of mitigation before the emissions due to land change/ grass renovation are compensated (C payback time)? (Vellinga&Hoving, 2011) Del Prado et al. 2011b. Nitrogen co-benefits and trade-offs of novel CH 4 mitigation measures applied on livestock systems. Presented at N and Global Change Conference April 11-14, Funded by (AC0209) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change Rothamstead Res., North Wyke (UK) 20 Institute of Rural Sciences, The University of Wales(UK)

21 Summary There is a need to integrate adaptation and mitigation for agriculture (Policy and Science) Integration needs to be done through multi/interdisciplinary/ system-based Science (also in the Basque Country). We can develop/use models at the farm scale (and with a holistic view) to study the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and test how Adaptation and mitigation measures may have synergies or trade-offs. 21

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