Price indices across the Sugar Supply Chain in the EU: opportunities and challenges

Transcription

1 Price indices across the Sugar Supply Chain in the EU: opportunities and challenges Ángel Panizo Espuelas, Eurostat Food Price Monitoring Tool Economic Board of the Sugar Market Observatory Brussels, 03/07/2018 Eurostat

2 Outline Food Price Monitoring Tool: What is it? Why? New Sugar Supply Chain? -> analysis stage by stage Examples of sugar supply chains (per country) Conclusions 2

3 Why the Food Price Monitoring Tool? 1. Huge volatility of food prices in Commission and Parliament call for food price transparency 3. Eurostat gathers existing data on food prices Food Price Monitoring Tool 3

4 Stages of the Food Supply Chain Producer Agricultural Commodity Consumer 4 Import

5 Decline in agricultural commodity prices did not imply lower food prices at producer and consumer levels? Food prices indices by stage of the supply chain, EU, 2005= % +9% 2Q 2Q Consumer % Producer Agricultural Commodity Increase 100 Lag Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 5

6 Current State 15 Food Chains Food Bread & Cereals Meat Fish & Seafood Milk, Cheese & Eggs Oils & Fats Fruit Vegetables Beef & veal Pork Poultry Whole Milk Cheese & Curd Eggs Potatoes Each stage: own classification Not all data available No absolute prices, no margins 6

7 New Sugar Supply Chain? Formerly chain "Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionary" Very heterogeneous -> deleted Additional level at consumer price level: ECOICOP Inclusion of new supply chains? 7

8 Consumer New ECOICOP: "CP01181 Sugar" Includes: "cane or beet sugar, unrefined or refined, powdered, crystallized or in lumps" All Members States deliver the indices Most cases: few years of data 8

9 Consumption of Sugar ranges from 0.4 to 5.2 Share of the total consumption, per country, 2016 Bulgaria Hungary Croatia Romania European Union Germany Luxembourg Sweden Ireland 1 Threshold

10 Agricultural Commodity " Sugar beet": main sugar-related crop in theeuropeunion Data quarterly 8 countries: 14 countries: 5 countries: 1 country: If no data all quarters do not grow sugar beet data 1 to 3 quarters/year data all quarters but values repeated data all quarters with distinct values Series cannot be dissaggregated into monthly More difficult to analyse price transmission 10

11 Producer "C1081 Manufacture of sugar". Long series Only BG, DE, ES, FR, IT and PL publish data Top 5 countries -> 60% of production Share of Sugar Manufacture in the EU, in value, 2015 DE 20% Other EU 40% ES 5% PL IT 7% 3% 11 FR 25%

12 Import Unit values (not price indices) Full availability of data: Raw Sugar Cane sugar Beet sugar Processed Sugar Processed Sugar w flavors or colorings Processed Sugar w/o flavors or colorings 12

13 More processed sugar traded than raw sugar Share of Sugar Trade (Intra and Extra) in the EU, in value, 2017 Processed sugar w/o additives 71% Raw cane sugar 25% Raw beet sugar 3% Processed sugar w additives 1% 13

14 Sugar supply chains per country More data France Spain Poland Less data Latvia & Ireland 14

15 France: full availability of data Sugar prices by stage of the supply chain, 2005M01= Consumer Import Agricultural Commodity 60 Producer 40 01/05 01/07 01/09 01/11 01/13 01/15 01/17 15

16 Spain: consumer prices since 2016 Sugar prices by stage of the supply chain, 2005M01*= Consumer Producer Import Agricultural Commodity /05 01/07 01/09 01/11 01/13 01/15 01/17 16

17 Poland: sugar beet only priced twice per year Sugar prices by stage of the supply chain, 2012Q3*= Agricultural Commodity Import Consumer Producer Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 17

18 Latvia and Ireland: only consumer and import prices Sugar prices by stage of the supply chain, 2015= Latvia 140 Ireland Consumer /14 12/15 12/16 12/17 Consumer Import /14 12/15 12/16 12/17 Import 18

19 Conclusion Possibility of including a Sugar chain with the ECOICOP Good correspondance accross classifications Two possible import prices: "processed" sugar seems more appropriate Not full availability of data: Heterogeneity accross countries 19

20 Thank you for your attention!! Open Debate 20 Eurostat