Market Overview Germany

Transcription

1 MARKET ACCESS SECRETARIAT Global Analysis Report Market Overview Germany April 2014 MARKET SNAPSHOT Germany registered a total gross domestic product (GDP) of US$3.43 trillion in Real GDP growth is estimated at 0.5% for 2013, slightly lower than the previous year. According to Euromonitor, Germany is the 16th-most populous country in the world with an estimated 81.8 million people in The population is expected to shrink slightly to 81.4 million by 2017, and then to 81.0 million by With a median age of 45 years in 2012, Germany has one of the world s oldest populations, which is affecting overall consumption patterns as well as the workforce and healthcare system. Euromonitor predicts that by the year 2030, one in every three citizens will be over the age of 60. CONTENTS Market Snapshot...1 Production...2 Trade...3 Consumer Foodservice...4 Retail Sales...4 Resources...5 Annual per capita consumer expenditure was US$22,832 in Spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages represents US$2,660, or approximately 11.6% of that total, slightly lower than the European Union average of 12.9%, but higher than Canada s proportion of 9.6%. The foodservice industry is expanding alongside a rising consumer confidence, and is forecast to reach total value sales of US$51.6 billion by As the population ages, consumers are opting for more health and wellness products. Sales in the health and wellness category are expected to grow by 5.6% from 2012 to 2014 to reach a total of US$29.5 billion, positioning Germany as the sixth-largest health and wellness market in the world in value terms, according to Euromonitor rankings. The agriculture sector employs 1.6% of the work force and is estimated at less than 1% of GDP.

2 PRODUCTION As shown in the table below, sugar beets and wheat are the top domestic crops in Germany, with the leading position in terms of volume production alternating between the two each year across the 2007 to 2011 period. Although sugar beet volume production increased by 4.8% in 2011 from the previous year, it actually decreased by 0.6% over the 2007 to 2011 period. In contrast, wheat production decreased by 5.4% in 2011 from the 2010 total, but increased by 9.5% over the entire review period. Grape production recorded the best volume growth in 2011 with 31.2%, regaining some of the losses experienced since Across the whole period, maize, currently Germany s fifth-largest crop, registered the strongest growth in volume production with 36.1%, or an annual average of 8%. Top ten crops (tonnes) Crop Production and Livestock in Germany Sugar beet 25,139,137 23,002,600 25,919,041 23,858,400 25,000,000 Wheat 20,828,077 25,988,565 25,192,350 24,106,743 22,800,000 Potatoes 11,643,769 11,369,000 11,617,500 10,201,900 11,800,000 Barley 10,384,218 11,967,114 12,288,100 10,412,100 8,733,800 Maize 3,809,320 5,105,861 4,527,228 4,072,900 5,184,000 Rapeseed 5,320,518 5,154,700 6,306,700 5,697,595 3,869,500 Rye 2,698,282 3,744,245 4,328,600 2,903,470 2,521,000 Triticale 2,061,470 2,381,470 2,514,391 2,156,963 2,004,300 Grapes 1,400,600 1,351,500 1,235, ,500 1,250,000 Apples 1,070,036 1,046,995 1,070, , ,448 Meat indigenous (tonnes) Pig 4,330,315 4,428,430 4,494,021 4,573,981 4,660,656 Cattle 1,321,230 1,320,320 1,330,150 1,347,000 1,331,120 Chicken 712, , , ,042 1,003,949 Turkey 405, , , , ,351 Duck 57,067 61,683 64,009 62,666 57,906 Livestock (head) Pigs 27,125,299 26,686,800 26,948,300 26,509,000 26,758,100 Cattle 12,686,644 12,969,674 12,944,903 12,809,492 12,562,600 Sheep 2,537,791 2,437,000 2,350,400 2,088,541 2,088,500 Horses 541, , , , ,000 Goats 180, , , , ,000 Source for all: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, December 2013 Page 2

3 TRADE Germany is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2012, Germany s agri-food and seafood trade deficit was US$16.1 billion with imports valued at US$100.5 billion, and US$84.4 billion in exports. Germany s agri-food and seafood imports have been growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% since Germany s top agri-food and seafood imports in 2012 were coffee, cheese, canola seed, soybeans and wine. Key supplying countries were the,,, Spain and Poland. Canada was the thirty-seventh largest supplier of total agri-food and seafood products to Germany in 2012, with a 0.44% share. According to the Federal Office of Statistics in Germany, Germany imported million (or US$389.2 million*) worth of Canadian agri-food and seafood products in This figure reflects all imported products of Canadian origin, including transhipments that arrive in Germany via other countries. Germany s Top Agri-Food & Seafood Imports from the World, 2012 (HS 6) Commodity Import Value US$ millions Coffee 4,170.4 Cheese nesoi 3,121.2 Rape/Colza seeds, whether or not broken 2,530.4 Soybeans nesoi 1,985.1 Wine of fresh grapes 1,936.4 Soybean oilcake 1,693.9 Live plants (including roots), cuttings, slips,and mushroom spawn 1,512.9 Food preparations, nesoi 1,397.5 Fresh or chilled tomatoes 1,379.6 Breads and bakery goods, nesoi Source: Global Trade Atlas, December ,226.4 Top Suppliers and Market Share Brazil 30.83% 34.05% 31.39% Brazil 35.86% 41.47% Brazil 55.33% 80.58% Switzerland 16.30% 51.91% 19.94% Vietnam 15.09% 22.40% Australia 13.54% United States 26.10% 24.71% 24.46% 7.22% 14.31% Spain 25.11% 15.44% Honduras 11.86% 8.31% United Kingdom 10.52% Paraguay 16.75% Spain 13.40% Argentina 16.14% Denmark 6.86% 12.16% Belgium 6.21% Belgium 15.27% Canada s Share % 0.01% 0.00% <0.01% 0.32% <0.01% <0.01% Germany s processed food imports were valued at US$55.3 billion. Canada s share was 0.13% (US$74.3 million). Germany s processed food imports registered a CAGR of 2.8% from 2007 to Canada s agri-food and seafood exports to Germany were valued at US$307.3 million in Top exports were soybeans, frozen fruit and nuts, maple sugar and syrup, lentils, and durum wheat. In 2012, Canada registered an agri-food and seafood trade deficit of US$74.3 million with Germany. *Conversion based on European Central Bank exchange rate of 1.00 = US$ for January 8, Page 3

4 CONSUMER FOODSERVICE The foodservice industry in Germany grew in value sales by 1.9% from 2009 to Further growth of 3.2% is projected to 2014, compared to just 1.6% for, and 2.5% for the United Kingdom over the same period. The German 100% home delivery/takeaway and fast food categories showed the most growth over the period of 2009 to 2012 with 8.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Over the forecast period of 2012 to 2014, these two categories are expected to remain the best performers, each recording total sales growth of just over 5%. According to Euromonitor, German consumers are demonstrating a growing expectation of high-quality products and services from all categories of foodservice establishments, including a demand for novel and innovative menu options, décor and formats. The German foodservice industry remains dominated by independent operators, with many consumers preferring family-owned and operated restaurants to their branded counterparts. However, chains are gaining ground in the country and seeing rapid outlet expansions, as they make the most of their larger resource base in terms of marketing and financial support. Chained foodservice sales grew by 8.0% from 2009 to 2012, and are expected to record a further 6.2% by 2014 (compared to -0.3% and 2.1% respectively, for independents). Consumer Foodservice Sales in Germany Historic/Forecast in US$ Millions, Fixed 2012 Exchange Rate Categories F 2014 F Consumer Foodservice by Type 49, , , , , ,584.7 Full-Service Restaurants 21, , , , , ,478.1 Fast Food 13, , , , , ,870.2 Cafés/Bars 9, , , , , ,187.6 Self-Service Cafeterias 2, , , , , ,665.0 Street Stalls/Kiosks 1, , , , , , % Home Delivery/Takeaway 1, , , , , ,436.4 Pizza Consumer Foodservice* 4, , , , , ,957.9 Source: Euromonitor, December F = forecast *Note: Pizza consumer foodservice data is compiled from three different subsectors (fast food, full-service restaurants, and 100% home delivery/takeaway) for the purposes of comparison, but remains reflected within the figures for these subsectors, and thus the consumer foodservice total. As such, pizza consumer foodservice is not counted as its own sector within the consumer foodservice total. RETAIL SALES Packaged food sales increased by just 1.1% over the period of 2009 to 2012, as manufacturers implemented slight price increases, emphasizing higher-quality and value-added products in response to consumer demand (Euromonitor, 2013). Further sales increases of 3.6% are forecast for the packaged food category to 2014, as consumers becoming increasingly time-pressed with less desire to cook from scratch (Trade Commissioner Service, 2013). The best performing segment in 2012 was sweet and savoury snacks, registering a CAGR of 4.6% from 2009 to Sales of health and wellness packaged food will only continue to grow in importance as the population continues to age, and will be further fuelled by ongoing healthy eating initiatives from both the German government and independent organizations (Trade Commissioner Service, 2013). Sales of organic packaged food performed particularly well over the 2009 to 2012 period with a CAGR of 5.2%, alongside health-consciousness as well as environmental concerns. Euromonitor also expects Page 4

5 regionally prepared products to perform increasingly well, as German consumers perceive domestic producers as more trustworthy than their international counterparts, and see local products as being of higher quality or better overall value for money, especially in times of economic uncertainty. Agri-Food Retail Sales in Germany Historic/Forecast in US$ Millions, Fixed 2013 Exchange Rate Category E 2014 F Health and Wellness by Type 26, , , , , ,534.3 Better For You (BFY) 6, , , , , ,889.3 Food Intolerance Fortified/Functional (FF) 4, , , , , ,275.8 Naturally Healthy (NH) 10, , , , , ,300.8 Organic 2, , , , , ,426.0 Packaged Food 96, , , , , ,037.8 Baby Food 1, , , , ,001.4 Bakery 20, , , , , ,331.0 Canned/Preserved Food 5, , , , , ,134.1 Chilled Processed Food 13, , , , , ,015.2 Confectionery 11, , , , , ,901.8 Dairy 19, , , , , ,488.1 Dried Processed Food 2, , , , , ,280.3 Frozen Processed Food 8, , , , , ,393.3 Ice Cream 3, , , , , ,248.5 Meal Replacement Noodles Oils and Fats 3, , , , , ,360.3 Pasta 1, , , , , ,522.7 Ready Meals 4, , , , , ,735.9 Sauces, Dressings and Condiments 4, , , , , ,567.7 Snack Bars Soup Spreads 1, , , , , ,895.8 Sweet and Savoury Snacks 2, , , , , ,073.8 Hot Drinks* 6, , , , , ,824.2 Soft Drinks* 15, , , , , ,721.7 Source: Euromonitor, December E = estimates based on partial-year (2013) data. F = forecast *Note: Hot drink and soft drink values are based on a fixed 2012 exchange rate RESOURCES Euromonitor International (2013). FAOSTAT (2013). Agricultural Production Germany. Global Trade Atlas (2013). Import and export statistics Germany. Trade Commissioner Service, Düsseldorf (2013). Spotlight on the German Market. World Bank (2013). Page 5

6 Market Overview: Germany Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2014). Photo Credits All photographs reproduced in this publication are used by permission of the rights holders. All images, unless otherwise noted, are copyright Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. For additional copies, to request an alternate format, and for all other inquiries regarding this publication, please contact: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Global Analysis Division 1341 Baseline Road, Tower 5, 4th floor Ottawa, ON Canada K1A 0C5 The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein. Reproduction or redistribution of this document, in whole or in part, must include acknowledgement of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada as the owner of the copyright in the document, through a reference citing AAFC, the title of the document and the year. Where the reproduction or redistribution includes data from this document, it must also include an acknowledgement of the specific data source(s), as noted in this document. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides this document and other report services to agriculture and food industry clients free of charge. Page 6