Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia

Transcription

1 P.O. Box 123 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya tel: fax: FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia May 217 Upate (Issued July 7, 217) Highlights Inflation: SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Index (CPI) changed at mild rates (+/-1-3%) in SoSh using areas in May 217 month-on-month. The CPI rose substantially (19-33%) annually due increases in cereal prices. SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI remained relatively stable month-on-month in May 217 but increased (16%) year-on-year due to increased prices. Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (less than +/-%) against USD in most regions of the country month-on-month in May 217. Annual comparison mostly exhibited a mixed trend; specifically, mild (less than 1%) changes were recorded in most of the southern regions; moderate to high (1-4%) depreciations were recorded in central and northeast regions due to printing of more local currency notes in the regions. SISh-using areas: The SISh depreciated mildly (2%) against the USD in May 217 month-on-month while year-on-year comparison indicates moderate depreciation of 18 percent as a result of printing of more local currency notes. Local cereal prices increased from mild to high levels in most regions of the country month-on-month in May 217 with the highest increase (4%) being recorded in Mudug region. The cereal price increases are attributable to reduced supply as a result of the two previous consecutive poor production seasons. Similarly, annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in all regions of the country with the highest increase being recorded in Bay (137%) due to two consecutive seasons of poor production. s of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild (less than +/-1%) monthly changes in local currency terms in May 217 in most regions of the country. Year-on-year comparison indicates mild to moderate price increases in most regions of the country for most of the food imports in May 217 due to depreciation of local currency against USD and increased global sugar prices. Livestock prices exhibited amixed trend; with mild to moderate increases in livestock prices recorded in most parts of the country due to reduced supply of saleable livestock; exceptions are in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and Awdal regions where camel prices declined (19-26%) month-on-month in May 217 due poor body condition of the in-migrated livestock body conditions. Compared to a year ago, livestock prices for all species were significantly lower across the regions of the country in May 217 attributable to deteriorated livestock body conditions. Milk prices (camel and cattle) exhibited a mixed trend; with high declines (3-36%) recorded in Bay and Bakool regions due to increased availability as a result of increased pasture and water which attracted more livestock into the regions leading to increament. Increases in milk prices were noted in Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba and Hiran due to below normal milk supply. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels when compared to last year in most regions of the country in May 217 due to the ompact of the current drought. Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than (+/-1%) month-on-month in most of the regions of the country in May 217; increases were noted in Bay (1%), Lower Juba (19%) and Lower Shabelle (4%) due to improved agricultural activities in the surrounding rural areas. Annual comparison indicates mild changes in most parts of the country with the exception of Banadir (Bakara-Mogadishu) where rates declined significantly (%) due to increased competition for available labour in urban areas as a result of increased population displacement from drought affected rural areas. (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained stable month-on-month or changed by 1kg of cereals/daily labor wage across the country in May 217. Annual comparison indicates lower ToT between daily labor and cereals across the regions due to declines in labor wages and/or increase in cereal prices. ToT between local quality goat and cereals increased from mild to moderate levels (-39kgs of cereals/goat) month-on-month with the highest increase noted in Banadir (Mogadishu) due to increase in goat prices. Exceptions are Lower Juba and Shabelle where ToT declined (8-11kgs of cereals/daily wage) due to increase in cereal prices. Annual comparison indicates the ToT between goat and cereals are lower across most regions of the country due to declines in goat prices and/or increase in grain prices compared to a year ago (May 216). DJIBOUTI Zeilac Awdal Borama Woq. Galbeed Burao Tog-Wajaale Hargeisa Togdheer Abudwaq Erigabo Sanag Lasanod Bossaso Dusa Mareb Galgadud El Barde Belet Weyne Haradhere Bakol Dolo Hudur Hiran Aden Yabal El Der Luuq Belet Xawo Gedo Baidoa M. Shabelle El Waq Qansah Dere Monitored Market Jowhar Dinsor Bay Wanle Weyne Bardera Market Catchment Afgoye Qoryoley Banadir Central Merka L. Shabelle Juba Valley Buale Juba Hagar North East Doobley Jilib Afmadow North West Jamame Shabelle Valley Kismayo Sorghum belt Major Road Regional Boundary Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Sool Galkayo Mudug Garowe Nugal This Market Update is a monthly report that presents analysis of market information and is produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. The weekly price data is collected from 48 main markets and 1 rural markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s annual food security projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Post Deyr Analysis). Detailed market data are available online on www. fsnau.org/ids. Bari Towns Affected by Trade Disruption (Bulo Burto, Wajid, Hudur and Diinsor) Labor (unskilled) wages remained relatively stable in May 217 in siege affected markets. Wage rates in May 217 are also stable compared to same period last year (May 216). (ToTs) between daily labor wage and cereals and between local quality goat and cereals either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates monthon-month in all markets affected by trade disruption. Annual comparison indicates lower ToTs in all the markets due to increase in cereal prices and/or decrease in labor wage rates and goat prices. Local grain (red and white sorghum) prices increased (9-31%) in Wajid, Bulo-Burto and Dinsor but remained relatively stable in Hudur in May 217 month-on-month due ongoing food distributions. Compared to a year ago, local grain prices increased substantially in all the markets. s of imported food items (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) changed at mild rates for most of the food imports in Bulo-Burte, Hudur and Wajid but increased in Dinsor (12-2%) in May 217. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for most of the food imports in all the siege affected markets.

2 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal s and Relative Purchasing Power Table 1: ToT betwen Daily Wage Rate and Cereals by Region May 217 Regions May 217 (kg) April 217 kg change from May 216 May yr ( ) Banadir/Mogadishu (Rice) Bay (Rice) 4-1 Bakool (Rice) 2 Gedo (Rice) 7-1 Juba (White maize) Figure 1: Wheat s: Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets per Kg 16, Bossaso Mogadishu 1, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, Shabelle (White maize) Northwest (Rice) Northeast (Rice) Central (Rice) 1 8, May June July August September October November December January February March April May Source: FSNAU Manfest Monitoring System Figure 2: Between Wage Rates and Selected Cereals Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT to Maize (Juba & Shabelle) TOT to Rice (NW) TOT to Rice (Central & NE) Figure 3: ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) SoSh per US Dollar 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, Baidoa(SoSh) Galkayo(SoSh) Hargeisa(SlSh) Bosasso(SoSh) Mogadishu(SoSh) 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6,, SlSh per US Dollar 1,, CPI Figure 4: ly Trends in Consumer Index (CPI, March 27=1) CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) per Kg (SoSH) Figure : ly Trends in Local Cereal s 39, 36, Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) 33, NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, per Kg (SLSH) 6, 3, 2, 2

3 Regional analysis: Juba Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 26,37 2,344 2,7 2,969 7,21 1% 3% -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 16,713 1,219 1,7 17,219 6,18 9% 13% 3% Petrol 1 litre 28,938 23,87 23,63 24,313 8,736 3% 2% -16% Sugar 17,981 16, 17,37 18,688 6,692 8% 17% 4% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 33,614 29,1 29,281 3,62 11,3 % % -9% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,43 1,94 1,813 16,94,931 % 6% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,2 12, 11,83 11,917 4,231 8% -1% 29% White Maize 1kg 9,44 9,74 12,272 13,37 4,761 9% 38% 4% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 9,871,683 1,418,7 1,41,938 9,3,12 3,29,163-13% -13% -8% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 4,41,173 3,628,71 2,23,71 2,86,278 1,41,2 27% -21% -29% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 2,13 18,143 18,7 19,938 7,146 6% 1% -1% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,4,391 1,391,2 1,97, 1,242, 41,473 13% -11% -1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 912, ,7 749, ,63 26,779-2% -11% -2% Charcoal kg 91,79 98,12 82,66 79,469 28,782-4% -19% -13% Cowpeas 1 kg 23,12 2,94 2,87 28,313 1,19 9% 13% 2% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 86,68 9,719 84,219 9,938 34,768 14% % 11% Firewood Bundle 8,384 8,19,66 8,16 2,864 44% 1% -3% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 71,87 3,813 7,46 3,938 19,3-6% % -2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,27 23, 22, 22,488 8,73 2% -2% 6% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % -3% -22% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % -3% -43% Indices Consumer Index % 19% - Figure 6: Trends in Cereal s Figure 7: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, /Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) 2, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 8: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 9: Goat Local Quality Figure 1: Exchange Rate Figure 11: Water Drum (2 litres) 3

4 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 3,33 22,7 24,83 2,8 9,29 % 14% -1% Imported Red Rice 1kg 19,31 18,32 19,28 19,83 7,17 2% 7% 3% Petrol 1 litre 3,49 26,217 27,83 29,367 1,73 8% 12% -2% Sugar 2,36 19,3 22,188 22,733 8,162 2% 17% 12% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 39,66 34,8 37,42 36,717 13,244-1% % -7% Wheat Flour 1kg 18,1 17,992 18,14 18,383 6,81 2% 2% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg 14,21 2, 19,231 2,42 7,321 6% 2% 46% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 7,17 7,28 12,823 13,8 4,64 2% 8% 83% White Maize 1kg 9,619 9,886 12,766 12,812 4,6 % 3% 33% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 12,629,463 12,161, 1,163, 11,46, 4,14,42 9% -9% -13% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,864,238 3,742,83 2,,37 2,798,71 1,17,11 1% -2% -28% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 18,71 18, 27,932 24,4 8,768-13% 32% 3% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,618,3 1,4,788 1,3,682 1,477,273 36,799 9% -% -9% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,18,27 86,2 677,292 79, 289,16 17% -8% -22% Charcoal kg 13,33 16,182 13,29 168,182 61,24 1% 8% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 24,426 22,87 3,327 36,787 13,27 4% 61% 1% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 12,11 9,611 93,438 93,733 33,966 % -2% -8% Firewood Bundle 6,61 6,1 6,83 6,2 2,171 3% 2% -% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 7,487 6,2 79,167 8,6 29,177 2% 23% 7% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,67 23,491 23,819 23,889 8,82 % 2% 11% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) - % % % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) % -13% -23% Indices Consumer Index % 19% - 2, 2, 1, 1,, Figure 12: Trends in Cereal s Gedo Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bay Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bakool Cereal (Red Sorghum) Hiraan Cereal (White Sorghum) Figure 13:Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Figure 14: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 1: Goat Local Quality 6, per Unit (SoSh) 4, 2, Figure 16: Exchange Rate Figure 17: Water Drum (2 litres) 4

5 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 2,17 18,917 16,2 17,667 6,321 9% -7% -3% Imported Red Rice 1kg 16,41 17,167 1,367 1,42,49 1% -9% -6% Petrol 1 litre 28,46 24,417 18,867 17,83 6,29-7% -28% -37% Sugar 18,12 17,833 17,9 18,83 6,472 1% 1% % Vegetable Oil 1 litre 29,983 28, 28, 28,42 1,92 % % -6% Wheat Flour 1kg 1,833 17, 13,4 13,7 4,897 3% -19% -13% Wheat Grain 1kg 17,83 17, Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,42 9,67 12,38 12,882 4,82 4% 33% 37% White Maize 1kg 8,267 7,63 9,38 1,198 3,66 9% 3% 23% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 17,273,166 17,9, 19,21,667 16,637, 6,46,623-13% -7% -4% Cattle Local Quality (Head),879,7,4, 3,138,7 3,912, 1,421,87 2% -29% -33% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 19,69 22, 26,1 2, 8,986-4% 11% 27% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,874,87 1,94, 2,212, 1,86, 67,897-16% -4% -1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,318, 1,371,667 1,31,833 1,314,83 477,671 % -4% % Charcoal kg 132, , ,83 126,97 4,91 3% -9% -4% Cowpeas 1 kg 2,928 2,37 3,28 44,472 16,63 27% 118% 113% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 72,87 72, 8,917 74,167 26,8 26% 2% 2% Firewood Bundle 6, 6,2,833 6,292 2,187 8% 1% -4% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre,666 48,792 1,3 2,7 19,71 3% 8% -% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,449 23,2 23, 23,4 8,44 2% 2% 9% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % -3% -22% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % -29% -22% Indices Consumer Index % 19% - Figure 18: Trends in Cereal s Figure 19: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Cereal 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 2: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 21: Goat Local Quality 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 22: Exchange Rate Figure 23: Water Drum (2 litres)

6 Regional analysis: Banadir Region -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 18,946 1,333 12,333 12,38 4,399 % -19% -3% Imported Red Rice 1kg 13,278 12,292 12,2 12, 4,261-2% -2% -1% Petrol 1 litre 21,1 16,333 16,167 1,967,73-1% -2% -2% Sugar 14,91 13,467 1,833 1,67,8-2% 16% 4% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 2,378 2,78 22, 22,2 7,968-1% 7% -13% Wheat Flour 1kg 11,893 11,1 11,42 1,733 3,81-3% -4% -1% Wheat Grain 1kg 8,78 1, 16,37 17, 6,78 4% 62% 9% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 6,2 6,83 1,8 11,8 3,927 2% 62% 7% White Maize 1kg 8,87 9,3 11, 12,93 4,29 % 34% 37% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) Cattle Local Quality (Head) Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 22,146 26,333 26,333 27,267 9,81 4% 4% 23% Goat Export Quality (Head) 2,11, 2,38, 2,1, 2,47, 899,413 1% - -1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 2,12, 1,9, 1,67, 2,, 726,779 19% % -6% Charcoal kg 23, , 22, 24,333 74,163 1% 9% % Cowpeas 1 kg 17,438 19,32 3,87 38,3 13,82 7% 11% 12% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 116, ,333 77,917 79, 28,612 1% -3% -32% Firewood Bundle 7,118 7,3 8, 8, 2,88 % 1% 12% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 6,946 46,1 2,48,167 18,133-4% 9% -12% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,13 22,99 22,3 22,47 8,44 % -3% 6% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -3% -22% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 8% 4% Indices Consumer Index % 19% - Figure 24: Trends in Cereal s Figure 2: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Cereal (Maize) 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 4, 2, 4, 2, Figure 26: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate 6, Figure 27: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) 4, 2, Figure 28: Exchange Rate Figure 29: Wheat Flour 6

7 Regional analysis: Central Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 2,428 18,36 2,7 23,4 8,964 13% 27% -8% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,82 16,96 18,2 19, 7,26 4% 12% 2% Petrol 1 litre 24,4 21, 22,8 2,8 9,894 13% 23% 6% Sugar 2,98 18,44 24,6 24,4 9,32-1% 32% 16% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,8 33,4 4,6 41,6 16,14 2% 2% 4% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,326 1,72 16,6 17, 6,48 2% 8% 4% Wheat Grain 1kg 1,382 14,3 17,2 19, 7,26 1% 32% 24% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 11,762 11,4 16,333 19, 7,26 16% 67% 62% White Maize 1kg 13,96 11,7 17, 18,7 7,163 1% 6% 43% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 11,79, 13,, 9,, 9,9, 3,834,748 4% -24% -16% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,6, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 28,194 29, 41,6 44, 16,944 6% 2% 6% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,42,991 1,28, 1,2, 1,2, 464,73 % -7% -16% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,126,7 1,4, 92, 96, 371,764 4% -8% -1% Charcoal kg 178,8 17,4 162, 172, 66,26 6% 1% -4% Cowpeas 1 kg 21,31 21,2 39, 42,8 16,479 1% 12% 11% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 86,79 92, 94, 96, 37,86 2% 4% 11% Firewood Bundle 34, 33, 36, 3, 13,48-3% 6% 3% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 87,49 83, 82, 81,4 31,431-1% -2% -7% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 22,28 24,28 26,4 27,3 1,47 3% 12% 23% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) 4 - % % 2% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -16% -1% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Kg) % -32% -19% Indices Consumer Index % 33% - Figure 3: Trends in Cereal s Figure 31: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Cereal (Rice) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 32: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 33: Goat Local Quality 8, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 34: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Water Drum (2 litres) 7

8 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Cereal (Rice) -Year ( ) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Real /Cereal TOT Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 23,69 1,693 18,214 18,911 6,46 4% 21% -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,26 1,9 17,89 17,7 6,7 1% 12% -3% Petrol 1 litre 23,78 2,17 21,929 22,36 7,63 3% 12% -% Sugar 2,694 18,4 22,89 22, 7,641 2% 22% 9% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 39,328 33,786 34,643 33,929 11,73-2% % -14% Wheat Flour 1kg 17,27 1, 17,214 17,2,83 % 11% % Wheat Grain 1kg 29,44 29,96 31,6 33,1 11,3 % 11% 13% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 21,41 23,4 26, 26,2 8,931-1% 12% 23% White Maize 1kg 19,6 21, 23, 22, 7,469-6% 2% 12% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,18,6 14,223, 11,62, 12,7, 4,148,131 9% -1% -2% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 8,1, 9,2,,2, 6,7, 2,322,12 29% -27% -21% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 37,39 4,689 9,217 7,2 19,96-3% 41% 3% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,419,6 1,23, 1,197, 1,38, 474,672 1% 1% -3% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,37,714 1,164,643 1,146,429 1,284, ,742 12% 1% -6% Charcoal kg 349, ,929 3,37 363,929 12,1 2% 4% 4% Cowpeas 1 kg 38,332 36,9 42,78 46,7 1,984 9% 27% 22% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 134,428 13, , ,67 46,898 1% 1% 2% Firewood Bundle 32,671 33,429 4, 42,643 14,71 % 28% 31% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 96,8 94,9 11,2 1, 36,24 4% 11% 9% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,26 22,43 26,643 26,946 9,17 1% 2% 2% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -11% 14% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -1% -% Indices Consumer Index % 24% - Figure 36: Trends in Cereal s Figure 37: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 38: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 39: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 4: Exchange Rate Figure 41: Water Drum (2 litres) 8

9 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 6,473 4,69,8,8 3,63 % 24% -1% Imported Red Rice 1kg,42,3,8,7 3,4-2% 8% 13% Petrol 1 litre 7,24 6,31 7,6 7,24 4,23 3% 1% % Sugar,789,64 6, 6,1 3,79-6% 8% % Vegetable Oil 1 litre 12,79 11, 13,8 13,14 8,29 -% 14% 9% Wheat Flour 1kg 4,48,12,4 4,6 2,837-1% -1% 3% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,487 4,37 4,62 4,12 2,34-11% -6% 18% Cereal s White Sorghum 1kg 3,611 4,2 4,9 4,6 2,837-6% 14% 27% Yellow Maize 1kg 3,633 4,,, 3,93 % 2% 38% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,636,92 4,31,417 4,32, 4,433,333 2,83,716 3% 3% 22% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,226,183 2,239,83 2,29, 2,72, 1,736,72 19% 21% 22% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 6,477 8,3 11, 11,4 7,179-1% 37% 76% Goat Export Quality (Head) 444,27 397,488 44,62 4,6 29,814 2% 1% 3% Goat Local Quality (Head) 323,622 3, 329,7 387,4 247,267 17% 29% 2% Charcoal kg 48,91 63,4 7, 69, 43,99-1% 9% 41% Cowpeas 1 kg 1,8 13,63 1, 16,733 1,8 8% 28% 4% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 47,23 7,7 6, 61,18 38,96 2% 6% 3% Firewood Bundle 4,16,,333,333 3,3 % -3% 33% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 29,9 31,813 36,62 34, 21,929-6% 8% 1% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 7,23 7,39 8, 8,716,46 2% 18% 24% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % % 22% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 19% 6% Indices Consumer Index % 16% - Figure 42: Trends in Cereal s Figure 43: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power SLSH 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cereal (Rice) SLSH 7, 6, 6,,, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 44: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 4: Goat Local Quality 14, 12, per Unit (SLSh) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 46: Exchange Rate Figure 47: Water Drum (2 litres) 9

10 Technical Partners FSNAU Funding Agencies 1