Grain Markets Where are They Headed?

Transcription

1 Grain Markets Where are We Headed? Grain Markets Where are They Headed? Lawrence Klusa Grain Marketing, Business Unit Leader Indigenous Ag Summit November 21, 2017

2 Agenda Agri-Trend Marketing Trimble/Agri-Trend My background This year s crop situation Next year s crop situation

3 Who is Agri-Trend Professional agriculture coaching Started in Canada Agri-Trend is 20 years old Farm Forum Event Dec 3 to 5 in Calgary

4 Agri-Trend Coaching services help farmers allocate scarce resources to produce a safe, reliable, and profitable food supply in an environmentally sustainable manner.

5 We make farmers more profitable by providing: Innovative agricultural leadership Unbiased, independent advice Confidence to make better decisions

6 Innovative and Profitable Grain Marketing Strategies

7 Strength of the AGRI-TREND Network Over 4+ Million Acres

8 Grain Marketing Programs Market Flash Plan Market Intelligence Plan Strategic Marketing Plan Strategic Marketing Plan Plus

9 Market Flash Plan AM/PM Call Market information Futures Prices - text or 2x or 4x times a day Price Summary- futures, basis and cash changes Technical Analysis - technical analysis report Grain Reports - review of major US and Cdn reports Weather 2x weekly of major trends in weather during growing season Ag Advance Trade Journal produced by Agri-Trend Senior coaches

10 Market Intelligence Plan Market Flash Plan Network Market Insider recommendation report Grain Market Coach access Trimble Ag Business Software including Grain Marketing components TABS generic crop planning tool Mercantile MarketShare newsletter

11 Strategic Marketing Plan Marketing Intelligence Plan Network Market Insider report customized to the clients farm operation Grain Marketing Plan for farm Grain Market Coach full access and farm visits TABS Setup and assistance with operation TABS crop planning tool customized to farm

12 Strategic Marketing Plan Plus Strategic Marketing Plan components Plus: Grain sample management Logistics planning More involvement in strategic planning Increased Coach Visits Coach becomes more of an employee than and independent consultant

13 DECEMBER ATHENS Trimble Ag Business Solutions

14 Trimble Purchased Agri-Trend in 2015 Trimble is best known for GPS technology Trimble is over 38 years old Trimble products are used in over 150 countries Trimble holds over 1200 patents Trimble has offices in over 35 countries

15 Trimble Industries include: Land Survey, Construction, Agriculture, Transportation, Telecommunications, Asset tracking, Mapping, Utilities, Mobile Resource Management, Government

16 Trimble Industries include: Land Survey, Construction, Agriculture, Transportation, Telecommunications, Asset tracking, Mapping, Utilities, Mobile Resource Management, Government

17 Trimble Agriculture Field Solutions Integrated, precision agriculture systems to maximize your farm productivity and profitability Guidance and Steering Correction Services Flow and Application Control Yield Monitoring Water Management

18 Trimble Agriculture Software & Services Professional ag business solutions for farmers, advisors, ag retailers and food processors. Farm Software Crop Advisor Software Ag Retail Software Food Processor Software Agronomics Services

19 Population Growth 1 farmer feeds 15.5 people 1 farmer feeds 25.8 people 1 farmer feeds 47.4 people 1 farmer feeds 75.7 people 1 farmer feeds 100 people 1 farmer feeds 155 people 1 farmer must feed >200 people Tractor power replaces animal power on farms Seeding becomes more efficient 4-wheel drive tractors are common Biotechnology improves production Wireless GPS guidance systems introduced Genetics and Data improves yield Integrated Actionable Intelligence drives growth 1950 s 1960 s 1970 s 1980 s 1990 s Billion 7 Billion 8.4 Billion

20 What Role Does Ag Software Services Play? Precision Ag Requires Software Complexity = More Fields x More Zones x More Products Connectivity with Equipment is VITAL Imagery Integration is Standard Sharing Data with Others is Expected (and required) SOFTWARE AND SERVICES ARE FOUNDATIONAL TO THE FUTURE OF AGRICULTURE

21 Global Independent Hardware Leader Precision Ag Requires Hardware Partnerships with major equipment manufacturers Deep understanding of data transfer and work flows Significant Installed Base

22 Solutions for all areas of the farming cycle LAND PREPARATI ON PLANTING WATER MANAGEME NT NUTRIENT & PEST MGMT IRRIGATION

23 Lawrence Klusa Mixed family farm at Floral, SK Learned to farm early age

24 Background Ag and Commerce U of S Consultant in AB for six years MBA from U of C

25 Background Grain Industry for 19 years Corporate Planning Commodity Futures Trader Quality Control Manager

26 Consulting Organic Fertilizer Pulse Industry First Nations

27 Agri-trend/Trimble Market coach Senior Market coach Business Unit Leader

28 Grain Markets

29 Grain Trade Basics

30 Corn 50 year chart

31 Inflation Adjusted Grain Prices

32 Corn 15 year chart

33 Corn 5 year chart

34 World Corn Production

35 US and World Corn Carryout

36 US Corn Ending Stocks

37 World Corn Ending Stocks

38 World Corn Production and Use

39 US Corn Total Supply

40 Ethanol and Biodiesel Production

41 Corn and Soybean use for Fuel

42 US Corn Usage

43 US Corn Usage

44 US Corn Production

45 US Corn Yield

46 US Corn Prices

47 US Corn Exports

48 HRW Wheat 50 year chart

49 HRW Wheat 15 year chart

50 HRW Wheat 5 year chart

51 HRS Wheat 5 year chart

52 HRS HRW Spread 20 Yr

53 HRS HRW Spread 5 Yr

54 HRS HRW Spread 1 Yr

55 HRW Protein Levels

56 US HRS production

57 US Spring Wheat Carryout

58 US HRW Production

59 US HRW Carryouts

60

61 World Wheat Production

62

63 World Wheat Importers

64 US and World Wheat Carryout

65 World Wheat Ending Stocks

66 US Wheat Ending Stocks

67 US Wheat Production

68 Australia Wheat Production

69 Canadian Wheat Production

70 Russia Wheat Production

71 Soybean 50 year chart

72 Soybean 15 year chart

73 Soybean 5 year chart

74 US and World Soybean Carryout

75 World Soybean Ending Stocks

76 US Soybean Ending Stocks

77 China Soybean Usage

78 China Soybean Imports

79 US Soybean Export Sales

80 Vegetable Oil Prices

81 Canola AAFC projecting canola carryout smaller than last year Exports and crush slightly lower Currently, 0.4 mt ahead of last yr Crush, 0.1 mt behind last yr

82 World Pea Production

83 World Pea Supply and Demand

84 Canadian Pea Exports

85 India Pulse Production and Imports

86 India Pulse Production

87 India s Food Grain Production

88 Positive for Peas Peas are high in protein Market is short protein Peas into pet food about $6.80/bu Feed peas about $5.00/bu 50 bu peas at $5 better than 70 bu feed barley at $3.50 These price may not hold next year if we get back to higher protein

89 Lentils The biggest market for Canadian lentils is India (33%) India buys 0.5 to 1.0 mt The 2 nd is Turkey at (20%) Talk of import duties on lentils

90 Chickpeas India s preferred pulse Buyers mix pea flour in CP flour CP prices strong at.70/lb Difficult to grow Seed is about $1.00/lb

91 Barley Quality was excellent Supply about 0.7 mt less than last year Export pace is strong Carryout will be tight

92 Oats More production in Canada this year Less production in the US Prices will depend on export demand Currently exports 25% ahead of last year

93 Durum AAFC projecting one of the tightest durum carryout ever Exports similar to last year Almost all durum and spring wheat in top grades StatsCan at 29 bu/acre SaskAg is at 35 bu/acre Difference is a 1.0 mt

94 Where are Grains Headed Canola higher (beans?) Soybeans likely lower Corn sideways HRW Wht likely lower HRS Wht likely higher Pulses likely lower Barley sideways Oats sideways

95 Questions

96 Lawrence Klusa, MBA, BSA, P.Ag. AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach e. t c