NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDMA)

Transcription

1 NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDMA) DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT FOR EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK HUSBANDRY EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK EXPO NAIROBI 5 TH NOVEMBER 2015

2 Reaction to Drought The traditional reaction to drought and its effect has been to adopt a crisis management approach This reactive approach is not good policy and should be replaced by a risk management approach which is anticipatory and preventive

3 RATIONALE FOR EARLY RESPONSE Early mitigation efforts (Drought services) Support local economies (Livelihood approach) Linkages with long-term development Reduce losses of assets and income Contribute to enhance resilience.

4 UNFOLDING OF A DROUGHT AND IMPACT ON EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK HUSBANDRY Earlier Time Later BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS SOCI0-ECONOMIC INDICATORS METEREOLOGICAL DROUGHT (rainfall indicators) AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT (vegetation greenness indicators) HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT (state of water sources) IMPACT ON PRODUCTION - Reduced milk production - Deteriorating body conditions - Increased mortality IMPACT ON ACCESS -Deteriorating Terms of Trade - Reduced household milk consumption DROUGHT IMPACT ON WELFARE -Increased malnutrition rates -

5 Correlation between state of pasture and household milk consumption

6 WHY A CONTINGENCY FUND? One of the main shortcomings in drought risk management remains the weak linkage between early warning and early response; The availability of sufficient set-aside contingency funds can ensure timely measures to mitigate the impact of drought, protecting livelihoods and saving lives.

7 REMOTE SENSED DROUGHT INDICATORS

8 LIVESTOCK RELATED DROUGHT INDICATORS PRODUCTION INDICATORS ACCESS INDICATORS MIGRATION PATTERNS ACCESS TO WATER LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITION MILK PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK DEATHS MILK CONSUMPTION LIVESTOCK TERMS OF TRADE

9 LIVESTOCK MIGRATION PATTERN The migration pattern is not normal (not in line with average migration pattern for the period) and indicates a clear drought stress. There is urgent need to enhance inter community dialogue and security monitoring to reduce risks related to conflicts TURKANA SOUTH SAMBURU LAIKIPIA

10 LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITION The body conditions of livestock are further deteriorating, especially in the pastoral livelihood where cows have 4-6 ribs visible including the fore ribs. In pastoral livelihood zone camels have 2 ribs visible and a slump hump. The body condition is not in line with the expected conditions for the period due to limited availability of fodder and long trekking distances. This situation corresponds approximately to a body condition score of 3 BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE 1 Emaciated, little muscle left 1 Emergency 2 Very thin no fat, bones visible 2 3 Thin fore ribs visible 3 Alarm 4 Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th & 13th 4 Alert ribs visible 5 Moderate. neither fat nor thin 5 Normal 6 Good smooth appearance 6 7 Very Good Smooth with fat over back and 7 ABOVE Normal tail head 8 Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible 8 9 Very Fat Tail buried andin fat 9

11 Establishing thresholds for socio-economic indicators BASELINE HISTORICAL DATASETS LONG TERM AVERAGE STANDARD DEVIATION NORMAL RANGES COMPARE CURRENT VERSUS NORMAL MAGNITUTE OF DEVIATION

12 Milk in Litres PRODUCTION INDICATOR: MILK PRODUCTION 90,00 Milk production-baringo County 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept oct Nov Dec Mean( ) 53,18 49,23 49,19 51,59 54,62 64,33 74,21 76,49 76,67 59,36 59,81 60,12 Max 77,89 67,66 61,39 70,70 60,21 69,19 Min 34,93 17,02 16,11 18,09 4,99 6, ,25 33,90 31,20 35,63 23,40 27,19

13 EXAMPLE OF DROUGHT RESPONSE FOR LIVESTOCK SECTOR SECTOR DROUGHT RISK/IMPACT STRATEGY ACTIVITIES Livestock Health Livestock Nutrition Livestock Marketing Water Education Security Overconcentration of livestock in dry grazing areas which leads to high risks of disease outbreaks and closure of markets (quarantine) Weak members of households are left behind with few weak milking stocks Market prices of livestock fast decreasing with reduced Terms of Trade (reduced purchasing power) Rangeland carrying capacity not sufficient to maintain a large livestock population Boreholes in the dry grazing areas are operated on continue basis with high risks of breakdowns During crises parents of vulnerable pastoral households are unable to pay school fees to retain their children in school Overconcentration of livestock in the dry grazing areas increases risks of conflict Enhance livestock disease surveillance in hotspots Livestock ring vaccinations in areas of convergence of animals; Livestock supplementary feeds to vulnerable households to sustain milk production Commercial accelerated livestock marketing Involvement of private sector based on drought-related business opportunities Promotion of meat value chain to enhance absorption capacity of livestock markets To ensure continuity of operation of water pumping in high livestock concentration points Providing food for fees to waive school fees for vulnerable pupils so minimising school dropouts Support peace initiatives in the hotspots (dry grazing areas) and inter-county negotiations Disease surveillance FMD ring vaccination Distribution of Hay, Cubes and Molasses Commercial destocking Purchase of spares and maintenance Provision of food to schools Support negotiation

14 EXAMPLE OF SCALABILITY OF DROUGHT SERVICES DROUGHT STATUS: EARLY ALARM WITH HIGH RISK OF DROUGHT (NO RAINS EXPECTED) TRIGGERS: Body Condition Index deteriorating and ToT worsening for pastoralists (outside normal ranges for the period) ACCELERATED COMMERCIAL OFF-TAKE Livestock Traders/ Group Ranches; DESTOCKING CENTRES : satellite markets; along migratory routes; final market; slaughterhouses Herders DCF subsides Vet services; Animal feeds; Water supply Drought Information DCF Subsides; Cash Transfer

15 Group-ranch based markets that add value to livestock and provide for accelerated marketing during drought quarantine; semi-feedlot; grazing paddocks sale yard Group ranch market Feedlots, Traders or Abattoirs: Buyers from Group Ranch transport logistics; two outspans (intensive feedlots) and holding grounds to keep livestock (as stocks) for butchers to deliver on a schedule. own fattening or finishing ranches Abattoirs, suppliers, butchers/retailers buy wholesale to sell to consumers or restaurants in Kgs - they rarely take inventory risk Abattoirs, Butchers, Retailers, Hotels, Consumers

16 PRODUCTION OF ANIMAL FEEDS FROM PROSOPIS TO ENHANCE FEEDING STRATEGIES DURING DROUGHTS A Prosopis bush in Garissa District A Prosopis bush in Garissa District Community members selecting Prosopis pods A community member feeds Prosopis pods into a mill Animal feed blocks made from Prosopis pods

17 THE END THANKS FOR LISTENING