The GLOBIOM model & ERD team: an overview

Transcription

1 GLOBIOM training, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 8th September 2014 The GLOBIOM model & ERD team: an overview Petr Havlík &ERD group + collaborators Ecosystems Services and Management Program

2 IIASA Founded in 1972 to use scientific cooperation to build bridges across the Cold War divide Non-governmental institute: 22 National Member Organizations representing Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas Construction and exploration of models of complex socio-economic and environmental systems to answer global challenges Laxenburg, (close tovienna), Austria International interdisciplinary staff of ~150 Researchers 2

3 IIASA-ESM-ERD Programs Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Ecosystem Services and Management (ESM) Energy Transitions to new technologies (TNT) Evolution and Ecology Mitigation of Air pollution Risk, policy and vulnerability (RPV) World population (POP) Water 3 ESM groups Earth Observation Systems (EOS) Agro-environmental systems (AES) Forest Ecosystems Management (FEM) Methods for economic decision making under uncertainty (MEDU) Environmental Resources and Development (ERD) ESM tools Geo-Wiki EPIC G4M Exploration tools GLOBIOM

4 ESM team ESM Director and Deputy AES Management EOS ERD-FEM MEDU

5 ESM Research questions What is the current state of ecosystems and their ecological thresholds and buffering capacities? How can we produce food, feed, fiber, and bio-energy that sustain ecosystem services, safeguard food security, and promote rural development at the national and international levels?

6 GLOBIOM model

7 Model general structure Partial equilibrium model on land use at global scale (endogenous prices balance supply and demand) Agriculture: major agricultural crops and livestock products Forestry: managed forests for sawnwood, and pulp and paper production Bioenergy: conventional crops and dedicated forest plantations Optimization of the social welfare (producer + consumer surplus) Base year 2000, recursively dynamic (10 year periods) Demand defined at the level of 30 world regions Supply defined at the grid cell resolution Main data source: FAOSTAT, complemented with bottom-up sectoral models for production parameters 7

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9 Model bottom-up approach SCALE 25 regions + 28 EU countries Spatially explicit INPUTS Population growth and GDP p.c. Bioenergy use Calorie intake p.c. Demand price elasticity Processing costs and coefficients International trade costs Crop parameters Grassland yield Livestock parameters Forest parameters Carbon stock (Internal transportation costs) OUTPUTS Prices Demand quantity Processed quantity Bilateral trade flows Land use Crop production Livestock production Intensification Wood production GHG emissions (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O)

10 World partitioned in 30 regions 10

11 GLOBIOM activities

12 Climate change mitigation IPCC AR5 (2014) SPM Livestock Bioenergy Deforestation 12

13 Climate change mitigation Bioenergy Publications Havlik et al. (2011) Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets. Energy Policy Frank et al. (2013) How effective are the sustainability criteria accompanying the European Union 2020 biofuel targets? GCB Bioenergy Mosnier et al. (2013) Alternative U.S. Biofuel Mandates and Global GHG emissions: The Role of Land Use Change, Crop Management and Yield Growth. Energy Policy Kraxner et al. (2013). Global bioenergy scenarios Future forest development, land-use implications, and trade-offs. Biomass and Bioenergy Projects ILUC assessment: estimation of ILUC coefficient for 1st and 2 nd generation biofuel pathways in the context of European Renewable Energy Directive 13

14 Climate change mitigation LULUCF Publications Böttcher et al. (2008) GHG Mitigation Potentials and Costs from Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in Annex 1 Countries. Böttcher et al. (2012). Projection of the future EU forest CO 2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models. GCB Bioenergy Living Forest Report WWF (2011) Projects EUClimit: Modeling scenarios and policy options for European Climate and Energy policies up to 2050 LIMITS: Land use implications of reaching the 2 degree target 14

15 Climate change mitigation Deforestation in the tropics Publications Mosnier et al. (2012) Modeling impacts of development trajectories on forest cover in the Congo Basin, Environmental and Resource Economics Megevand et al. (2013) Deforestation trends in the Congo Basin. The World Bank Cohn et al. (2014). Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation. PNAS Projects REDD-PAC : Assessment of reference levels for future deforestation in Brazil and in the Congo basin and of potential REDD+policies CoForTips: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience of forested social and ecological systems in the Congo Basin 15

16 Climate change mitigation Livestock Publications Projects Havlik et al. (2012). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics Herrero et al. (2013). Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems. PNAS Havlík et al. (2014). Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. PNAS AnimalChange : projecting impact of climate change on livestock production in Europe by 2030 and

17 Climate change impacts and adaptation Impacts -17% ± 13% -3% ± 6% Adaptations Adapted from Nelson et al. (PNAS, 2013) 17

18 Climate change impacts and adaptation Publications Projects Nelson et al. (2014) Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS Nelson et al. (2014) Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don t the models agree. Agricultural Economics Mosnier et al. (2014) Global food markets, trade and the cost of climate change adaptation. Food Security Leclere et al. (under review) Climate change impacts on agriculture, adaptation & the role of uncertainty AGMIP: to improve integrated impact assessment of climate change on agriculture GLOBAL-IQ: to evaluate total costs and the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation against global changes 18

19 Food security Food Security availability, access, utilization, stability IPCC AR5 (2014) WGII Chapter 7 19

20 Food security Publications Schneider et al. (2011) Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption. Agricultural Systems Valin et al. (2013). Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters Vervoort et al. (2014). Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change Projects Food Secure: Economic, social and political conditions for satisfying the world food needs CCAFS Regional scenarios: To capture key uncertainties for regional food security under conditions of global environmental and socio-economic change TRANSMANGO: To quantify the effects of global drivers of change on European and global food demand and production for explorative scenarios 20

21 Global and regional foresight now 2020 mid end century century 21

22 Global and regional foresight Publications Projects Sauer et al. (2010) Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation. Water Resources Research Smith et al. (2010) Competition for land, Philosophical transactions Lauri et al.(2014). Woody biomass energy potential in Energy Policy SIGMA: Spatially explicit projections of cropland and cropping systems, cropland extensification/intensification environmental impact analysis OECD and FAO outlooks 22

23 Thank you! Questions? 23