2017 ARMS II Training Montana

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1 2017 ARMS II Training Montana October 2-3, 2017 Survey Lead Backup Andy Cochran Maria Bautista Contact: (720)

2 Training Goals & Objectives Know why this survey is important and what we re after Understand how to subsample a field Learn about each section, and be prepared for various reporting scenarios Become familiar with the layout of the respondent booklet and questionnaire Learn how to plot a field location with the Mapping Utility

3 Who s who USDA has been tasked by Congress with producing cost of production estimates. NASS, a sub-agency of USDA, is tasked with collecting and summarizing data. ERS, another USDA sub-agency, is tasked with conducting economic analysis, in large part using NASS data.

4 What is NASS s role? NASS is only in the data business: ~ Providing Timely, Accurate and Useful Statistics in Service to U.S. Agriculture ~ NASS does not recommend policy, has no regulatory authority, and has no agenda. Our only purpose is to provide representative, unbiased statistics, and disseminate the data as a non-exclusive public good.

5 Value of NASS and ERS Anyone can conduct a private survey, estimate a number, analyze data, and make a judgement decision. But is the data reliable? Industry players (growers, processors, consumers) rely on data, but each has a vested interest in the data turning out a certain way (in their favor). NASS and ERS have no vested interest in data outcomes, and no government authority has influence or access to unpublished data. Independence is what makes NASS data and ERS analysis so widely trusted and utilized by agricultural decision makers, both public and private.

6 A Little ARMS Background In 1973 Congress required USDA to provide cost of production estimates on an annual basis for various commodities, including wheat For many years NASS conducted the Cropping Practices Survey (CPS) and the Farm Costs and Returns Survey (FCRS) In 1996, NASS integrated the two surveys into ARMS

7 Value of ARMS data The survey design of ARMS provides ERS the ability to conduct economic analyses relating to field crop chemical use, production expenses, IPM adoption levels, as well as crop and livestock production costs. Cross tabulating these variables in the ARMS dataset provides a unique insight to the viability and effectiveness of various agricultural practices. ARMS is the only comprehensive source of this data.

8 Value of ARMS data ARMS gathers information about the relationships among agricultural production resources and the environment. ARMS determines what it costs to produce various crops and livestock commodities, and the relative importance of expense items. Helps determine the financial conditions of production agriculture.

9 Value of ARMS data Generally farmers benefit indirectly from ARMS data. They see information through extension service, reports by State schools, farm magazines, newspaper, radio or TV. Most respondents do not realize that the data comes from this survey. Farm organizations, banks, commodity groups, agribusinesses, Congress, and the USDA use information from ARMS to evaluate the financial performance of farm/ranch businesses, and to make decisions affecting agriculture.

10 Value of ARMS data

11 Value of ARMS data Generally farmers benefit indirectly from ARMS data. They see information through extension service, reports by State schools, farm magazines, newspaper, radio or TV. Most respondents do not realize that the data comes from this survey. Farm organizations, banks, commodity groups, agribusinesses, Congress, and the USDA use information from ARMS to evaluate the financial performance of farm/ranch businesses, and to make decisions affecting agriculture.

12 Value of ARMS data

13 Value of ARMS data

14 Value of ARMS data

15 Value of ARMS data

16 ERS Uses of ARMS Data

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19 dollars per bushel Cumulative Distribution of Total Wheat Production Costs, Farms Production MYA Price=$ % of production is at or below the MYA price percent

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data How We ve Used Costs and Returns Data In corn, soybeans, and

production costs, with greater concentrations of manure Insect-resistant GE reduce

20 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data How We ve Used Costs and Returns Data In corn, soybeans, and wheat, conventional production costs are much lower, but organic net returns are higher. Shifts to contracts and larger operations led to increased productivity and lower production costs, with greater concentrations of manure Insect-resistant GE reduce cash expenses and raise yields, while herbicide-tolerant GE reduce farmer labor hours. And we post the costs and returns estimates, by commodity and year, on the ERS website

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Nutrient Use Efficiency in Major Field Crops Excessive application of nitrogen and phosphorous beyond what crops can take up are important sources of water pollution ARMS data

21 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Nutrient Use Efficiency in Major Field Crops Excessive application of nitrogen and phosphorous beyond what crops can take up are important sources of water pollution ARMS data allow us to assess over-applications to understand what types of farms overapply, and why. We can also evaluate the effect of policy initiatives and technologies in helping to improve the efficiency of nutrient applications. The data are not used, and cannot be used, for regulatory purposes. They are used to understand practices and evaluate policies.

22 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Nutrient Timing in Corn, Cotton, and Wheat The timing of nutrient applications is also important. To reduce the potential for nutrient leaching or runoff, nitrogen should be applied as close to the time that the crop needs it as is practical. As with nutrient application rates, ARMS data allow us to assess methods for increasing nutrient use efficiency.

23 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data ARMS Provides Objective and Representative Information on Nutrient Use in Agriculture Where do we have problems of overuse and damage to water and land resources, and what can we do about? How to target programs to get the most environmental benefit for the taxpayers dollar What do we know about the value to farmers of additional nutrient applications, beyond what s recommended?

Most farms that adopt a practice do so without a payment;

24 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Additionality: Are Conservation Payments Needed to Encourage Conservation Practice Adoption? Most farms that adopt a practice do so without a payment; but, do payments cause others to adopt? Are they targeted effectively?

25 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data ARMS Provides Representative Information on Actual Rotations We track crop rotations, cover crops, and no-till systems. With other ARMS information, we can model impacts on pesticide and nutrient use, and net returns.

26 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Crop Rotation Practices, Major Field Crops Rotation choices affect yields, soil nutrients, pest populations. ARMS Phase II provides nationally-representative baseline measures of rotation choices among farmers. ARMS Phase II also provides detail crop choices over three years, plus in-between (cover crops), plus variation by Region, and allows for rotation detail

27 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data A Rotation Variant: Double-Cropping Winter wheat is the most common winter crop used with double-cropped soybeans 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Winter Wheat-Corn (2010) Rye-Corn (2010) Winter Wheat-Soybeans (2012) Rye-Soybeans (2012) Northern Region Southern Region Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using calculations based on the Agricultural Resource Management Survey Phase II in 2010 (corn) and 2012 (soybeans). Similar to crop rotation, the choice of winter crops to plant ahead of corn or soybeans in the spring can affect yields and nutrient requirements.

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Who Uses ARMS Information and Reports on Crop Rotations? Extension & private crop advisors: how widespread are different kinds of rotations, and in what regions?

28 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Who Uses ARMS Information and Reports on Crop Rotations? Extension & private crop advisors: how widespread are different kinds of rotations, and in what regions? How do they affect input uses, expenses, and net returns? ARMS is one of their information sources, providing representative and objective information. Policymakers and administrators of public programs: should we support certain types of activities? What seems to work, in support of policy goals?

29 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Are Conservation Payments Needed to Encourage Conservation Practice Adoption? 100% Percentage of Farmers With a Payment Who Would Not Have Adopted Without the Payment 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Filter Strips Riparian Buffers Field Borders Grassed Waterways Terraces Conservation Tillage Nutrient Management Plan (NMP) Soil Testing Nitrogen (NMP) Structural Off-field Structural On-field Non-structual On-field Soil Testing Phosphorus (NMP) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using calculations based on the Agricultural Resource Management Survey Phase II & III in wheat (2009), corn (2010), barley (2011), sorghum (2011), and soybean (2012)

30 Proportion of Acres ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Tracking Tillage Decisions No Till Mulch Till Other No Till Mulch Till Other Winter Wheat Spring and Durum Wheat

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Research on Tillage System Adoption No-till, particularly continuous no-till, is widely regarded as important to improving soil health.

31 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Research on Tillage System Adoption No-till, particularly continuous no-till, is widely regarded as important to improving soil health. ARMS is a critical source of information on no-till adoption, particularly multi-year adoption. ARMS data, based on the notill/ strip-till question in crop history table, shows that farmers who use no-till often use it intermittently.

32 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Tracking the Adoption of Precision Technologies

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Who Uses ARMS Reports on Precision Agriculture? Extension and technical advisors for farmers: who adopts, and does it seem to work for them? What are the financial implications?

33 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Who Uses ARMS Reports on Precision Agriculture? Extension and technical advisors for farmers: who adopts, and does it seem to work for them? What are the financial implications? Can you save on input use, and how? Can you improve yields what else does it take? Media, farm group leaders, policymakers: How will the technologies change agriculture? Can they improve environmental outcomes? To tie it back to conservation practices: does the adoption of precision agriculture technologies make it easier (cheaper, more effective) to also adopt conservation practices?

34 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Recap: Why is ARMS Valuable? It s Representative, Comprehensive, Objective Links resources, practices, and finances ARMS is used by extension staff and private consultants in advising farmers, and it is used by input providers in planning production and marketing. However, a primary use is for public policy...

ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Policymakers Some have farm backgrounds, most don t Those that do can t just rely on background & experience Policy Decisions Will be Made with

35 ERS: Uses of ARMS Data Policymakers Some have farm backgrounds, most don t Those that do can t just rely on background & experience Policy Decisions Will be Made with or Without ARMS They re all busy, so they rely on others for information ARMS provides accurate data on U.S. agriculture Better information makes for better decisions

36 ERS Topic Pages Nutrient Management: Pest Management:

37 ERS Topic Pages Livestock Practices: Manure Management: Characteristics and Production Costs of US Wheat Farms:

38 ERS Reports ERS reports are publicly available on the internet at: Farm Income: Farm Balance sheets: Cost and Production:

39 Logistics

40 Three Phases of ARMS Phase I: Screening Phase II: Fertilizer, Pesticides, Practices, Variable Costs Phase III: Wholefarm economic survey ( what it takes to operate a farm) Phase I Screening sample Phase II Wheat Production Practices & Costs Phase III Farm Costs and Returns Wheat Costs and Returns June/July Oct./Nov. Feb./Mar.

41 2017 Target Commodities Arizona: Durum Wheat Colorado: Winter Wheat Montana: Winter Wheat, Spring Wheat, and Durum Wheat

42 Data Collection ARMS II is collected by Face-to-Face interview only (not over the phone). Surveys were not mailed to respondents. There will not be any phoning from Data Collection Centers (DCCs). 42

43 Use of the ipad ipads may not be used for data collection. All forms must be completed on Paper. You will use your ipad s mapping utility at the end of the interview to find latitude/longitude of the field. 43

44 Key Dates Data Collection Begins Today 50% in office benchmark November 1, 2017 Data Collection Ends December 1, 2017 Agricultural Chemical Usage Release May 12,

45 Materials on NASDA Website Interviewers Manual Respondent Booklet Questionnaire (by version) S/surveys/51367.aspx All-inclusive pesticide list (96 pages) S/surveys/22178.aspx

46 Questionnaire Overview On Phase II operators will be asked to report: Acreage of the targeted commodity grown Fertilizer and Pesticide applications on a sub-sampled field Field operations Production practices Variable input costs

47 Section A Field Selection

48 Taking a Random Sub-sample Why bother subsampling a field? Reduces respondent burden Reduces bias What we need: 1) Total Winter Wheat acres* 2) Total # of Winter Wheat fields 3) Random selection among those fields 4) Acres of selected field 8 fields, 800 acres (100 acres each) WW Field 5 WW Field 1 WW Field 5 WW Field 3 WW Field 7 WW Field 2 WW Field 6 WW Field 4 WW Field acres

49 Section A Field Selection All types of wheat

50 Section A Field Selection Target Commodity Only, from here on out

51 What are we looking for? What if wheat is planted, but harvested as hay? What if wheat is planted, but grazed off? What if wheat is planted, but hailed out/flooded/burned/abandoned? What if wheat is planted, but only harvested for insurance purposes?

52 What are we looking for? What if wheat is planted, but harvested as hay? What if wheat is planted, but grazed off? What if wheat is planted, but hailed out/flooded/burned/abandoned? What if wheat is planted, but only harvested for insurance purposes? Include all acres planted to the target crop, even if. (IM p. 5003)

53 What are we looking for? Which sections of the questionnaire could be relevant for this wheat field? - Field Characteristics - Fertilizer - Pesticide - Pest Management - Field Operations - Irrigation

54 What are we looking for?

55 Taking a Random Sub-sample Drawing fields on the grid map is normally not necessary. You only need to draw fields if there is no other way the farmer can distinguish by name or description. It does not matter how the fields are labeled; it only matters that the farmer keeps them straight so he can reference the one we randomly select.

56 Taking a Random Sub-sample Key: If you say Let s talk about field #7, the farmer must know which one #7 is (whether by name, description, or numbered drawing) ST: 30 Winter Wheat 115 acres 60 acres 80 acres 240 acres 570 acres 120 acres 80 acres North of homestead East of CR D 320 acres 225 acres 80 acres You have identified there are 12 fields of the target commodity on this operation. Using the random number label, based on 12 total fields, the corresponding number is 7.

57 Selected Field Acres Remember to write the selected field acres at the top of page 4 before you proceed any further. The rest of the questionnaire refers only to these acres. 80.0

58 Selected Field Acres ---Selected field

59 Optional drawing fields ** You only need to draw fields if there is no other way the farmer can distinguish by name or description.

60 Section A Field Selection Q6: Answer if available. If not, write DK Q7: Verify with the respondent that you have selected a field of the target commodity. If not, start over.

61 Taking a Random Sub-sample What if: the farmer refuses to list out all the fields, but wants to complete the survey? 4 Essential Items: 1) Total Winter Wheat acres* 2) Total # of Winter Wheat fields 3) Random selection among those fields 4) Acres of selected field

62 Practice Section A

63 Section B Field Characteristics

64 How is Section B data used? Used to calculate cost of production per planted acre on the selected field. Used to study land tenure, conservation practices, and adoption of new technologies.

65 Section B Field Characteristics First and foremost: write the acreage of the selected field. Refer only to these acres from this point forward.

66 Section B Field Characteristics Use skips whenever appropriate. Makes the interview go faster.

67 Section B Field Characteristics Did their landlord contribute any inputs or costs? What if the respondent is the landlord?

68 Section B Field Characteristics Q8a: Yield Goal (not actual yield) Q8b: Intended purpose (not eventual purpose)

69 Section B Field Characteristics Always use whole numbers, unless indicated with._ or. Q11: The rate goes on the left, and the unit code on the right.

70 Section B Field Characteristics Q16: Previously, we asked about intentions. Now we ask what actually happened to the wheat. If wheat was grazed off, put acres in 16e

71 Section B Field Characteristics *** Harvesting Straw is distinguished from cutting wheat Hay. Straw is a byproduct of grain harvest. It is either disposed of, or baled. But if wheat was cut as hay instead of grain, it cannot also be harvested as straw.

72 Section B Field Characteristics If wheat was grazed, check that you indicated so in Q16e. These questions try to quantify a value of the wheat crop, since there is not a traditional sale of the commodity. 19c: Did they graze the stubble, or the crop itself?

75 320: Cultivated Fallow (aka Summer Fallow ) is distinguished from 318: No crop planted

76 Section B Field Characteristics

78 Section B Field Characteristics Q24: Even if they are not in these programs, they may have applied in the last 4 years

79 Section B Field Characteristics Do not skip Q25 unless directed to. Check the box, and remember to write the number in the Code column. Blanks and dashes are not appropriate here: If they refuse the question, use code 1 If not a reason, use code 2

80 Section B Field Characteristics Q26: If they were not in the programs, but had applied -----

81 Section B Field Characteristics

82 Section B Field Characteristics

83 Section B Field Characteristics

84 Section B Field Characteristics

85 Section B Field Characteristics

86 Section C Nutrient or Fertilizer Applications

87 How is Fertilizer data used? Fertilizer application data is used to analyze water quality and agricultural productivity issues and policies Nutrient Management practices help farmers adjust fertilizer application to crop needs and reduce costs and losses to the environment

88 Section C Fertilizer Applications

89 Section C Fertilizer Applications

90 Section C Fertilizer Applications What s the difference between codes 1 and 19?

91 Section C Fertilizer Applications There are two ways operators may report their applications: 1 2 Pounds of actual nutrients Column 3 must be blank Column 4 must be coded 19 Percentage of total composition Column 3 must be complete Column 4 must be coded 1 or 12 Example 1: I applied 8 pounds of nitrogen and 24 pounds of phosphate per acre. Example 2: I applied 50 pounds of per acre. Example 3: I applied 50 pounds of ammonium phosphate per acre.

92 Section C Fertilizer Applications Is this Percent Analysis or Actual Nutrients?

93 Example 1: I applied 8 pounds of nitrogen and 24 pounds of phosphate per acre ?

94 Example 2: I applied 50 pounds of per acre. Math: 16% x 50 pounds = 8 pounds of actual Nitrogen 48% x 50 pounds = 24 pounds of actual Phosphate

95 Example 3: I applied 50 pounds of ammonium phosphate per acre

96 Example 3: I applied 50 pounds of ammonium phosphate per acre

97 Section C Fertilizer Applications Percent Analysis Actual Nutrients

99 Is there anything wrong with this example?

100 1) Find the Mistake XX XX XX.X Quantity per acre should be blank.

101 2) Find the Mistake XX XX XX.X Codes 1 and 19 are both pounds: - Code 1 is Percent analysis, but sum of parts is greater than 100%. - Code 19 is for actual nutrients.

102 3) Find the Mistake XX XX XX.X Appears to be reported as Percent of a solution, but Quantity Applied Per Acre is missing

103 4) Find the Mistake Looks like total gallons applied, so probably need to ask for percentages and quantity per acre. Re-contact XX XX XX.X Liquid unit reported, so percent analysis, but sum of parts is >100%.

104 5) Find the Mistake XX XX XX.X Decimals are not allowed here. Only whole numbers are acceptable unless the questionnaire indicates with. or.

105 6) Correctly reported Percent Analysis XX XX XX.X

106 6) Correctly reported Actual Nutrients XX XX XX.X

107 If no custom applicator Items 4a and 4b are about the cost of custom application If the farmer did his/her own application, skip to Item 5 as instructed

108 If they paid a custom applicator If there was a custom application Q4

109 If they paid a custom applicator Cost of the services Cost of Nutrients or Fertilizer

110 If they can t separate out costs

111 Section C Fertilizer Applications

112 Section C Fertilizer Applications

113 Section C Fertilizer Applications

114 Section C Fertilizer Applications Item 14d asks about the Landlord s share of this cost. The skip instruction looks complicated skip if there is no landlord.

115 Section C Fertilizer Applications

116 Section C Fertilizer Applications

117 Section C Fertilizer Applications

118 Section C Fertilizer Applications Non-commercial compost questions resemble the noncommercial manure questions.

119 Section C Fertilizer Applications

120 Practice Section B & C

121 Section D BioControl or Pesticide Applications

122 How is Pesticide data used? Economic Research Service (ERS) conducts research on the impact of alternative regulations, policies, and practices Pesticide data not only shows the general importance of responsible pest management, but also specifically what works and what doesn t. EPA restricts use of most chemicals Are farmers using the max label rates? Using less? Which products are important? Which are not important? How effective are they? Data shows the answers, informs better regulation

123 Section D Biocontrol or Pesticide Applications 1

124 Axial Axial Star Axial XL Be specific and use respondent booklet; Dual Magnum has several variants. So do most things.

125 What if you can t find the code in the respondent booklet? Axial Axial Star Axial XL Weed Elim. 4 H L

126 Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product L D L D Liquid or Dry is the form of the product at time of purchase.

127 Product L Product D 2 Product L 2 Product D 2 Three items are in a single tank mix: Lines 2, 3 and 4. Lines must be next to each other in the table.

128 Product L 1 Product D 1 Product L 3 Product D 3 What does this mean?

129 Product L 2 Product D 1 Product L 4 Product D 3 Do NOT do this. Items within a tank mix must each have the same line indicated in column 4: the number of the first line in the mix.

130 Product L Product D Product L Product D Column 5 must be consistent within a tank mix. Column 8 units must correspond with L or D.

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136 Section D Pesticide Applications

137 Practice Section D

138 Section E Pest Management Practices

139 Section E Pest Management Practices What are Pests? a) Insects or mites b) Weeds c) Diseases d) All of the above

140 Section E Pest Management Practices ARMS helps us to assess 1. resistance to pesticides (e.g. glyphosate). 2. how pest populations change over time farmer pest management strategies 4. whether resistance management techniques are effective. The findings are used by extension agents, crop consultants, and farmers. It is also used to educate the public, many of whom are uninformed about the benefits of controlling insects, weeds, and/or plant disease.

141 Section E Pest Management Practices

142 Section E Pest Management Practices

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145 Section E Pest Management Practices

146 Section E Pest Management Practices