ANADIA May 22-26, 2006 (Italy) Josh Foster NOAA Climate Program

Transcription

1 ANADIA May 22-26, 2006 (Italy) Josh Foster NOAA Climate Program

2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE (CPO) FIVE MAIN RESEARCH, OBSERVATION & OPERATIONAL PROGRAMS: End-to-End-to-End: Climate Observations and Analysis Climate Forcing Climate Predictions and Projections Climate and Ecosystems Regional Decision Support

3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE (CPO TWO MAIN RESEARCH AREAS: 1. Physical Sciences & Observations: climate variability & change, climate & hydrology, data management, atmospheric chemistry-aerosols 2. Social Sciences - Regional Decision Support: Sector Applications Research Program (SARP) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services (TRACS) Radio Internet-Rural Communications (RANET)

4 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE (CPO) Research Project Examples: Communicating climate information through local interactions with the agricultural sector Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Climate Assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS) Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) Radio Internet-Rural Communications (RANET)

5 NOAA Regional & Local Climate Services Components: CLIMATE SERVICES NETWORK Climate Services & Supporting Research NOAA and NOAA-Supported Centers Delivering Climate Services High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey International Research Institute Western RCC Desert Research Institute Northeast RCC Cornell University Climate Diagnostic Center Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division Pacific ENSO Applications Center National Center Regional Center States Participating In Two Regions RISA s NWS RHQ Southern RCC Louisiana State University National Climatic Data Center Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources NWS Local Office and State Climate Offices Not Shown Bob Livezey modified by Josh Foster

6 NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA)

7 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) NOAA currently supports 8 RISA university teams across the U.S. to analyze how climate impacts key sectors within a region and how climate information could help with resource management and planning within that region. RISA teams are comprised of researchers from the physical, natural, engineering and social sciences who work together and partner with stakeholders in a region to determine how climate impacts key resources and how climate information could aid in decision making for those stakeholders. Example topics covered by the RISA program include: Agriculture Wildland Fire Water Resources Drought Planning Fisheries Public Health Topics covered by individual RISAs depend on regional interests.

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9 Climate Science and Arizona Cooperative Extension Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona

10 Why Extension? Cooperative Extension is a nonformal educational network bringing research-based information into communities to help people improve their lives Library of Congress, 1936

11 Infrastructure and People 68 FACULTY off-campus 43 FACULTY on campus 150 STAFF supporting programs 14,000 VOLUNTEERS 100,000 YOUTH enrolled in 4-H Youth Development programs 250,000 PARTICIPANTS in 2004 (from D. Young, 2005)

12 Why a Climate Science Extension Specialist? Climate has traditionally been addressed within Extension by crop meteorologists, agronomists, and soil science specialists Arizona has unique climate-related extension needs beyond traditional agriculture water resource management land management

13 What is a Climate Science Extension Specialist? Develop outreach and education programs that address climate related issues of importance to Arizona and the desert Southwest Work with stakeholders and natural/social scientists on program development Facilitate partnerships between Arizona Cooperative Extension and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Expected areas of programmatic focus include the impact of climate variability/change on regional water supplies, range management, and forest ecology and management. 70% Extension/30% Research

14 Climate Science Extension Program Improve climate literacy across Arizona and the greater southwest U.S. Increase the utilization of existing climate products and work to develop new tools and products (needs assessments) Develop strategies to solicit feedback and evaluate products Encourage and facilitate public participation in climate science Ultimately develop an extension program that helps improve resource management and policy-making through the utilization and integration of climate science

15 Climate Extension Blending Outreach and Research Climate variability and range condition (with US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), Agriculture Research Service (ARS), & cooperative extension service) Needs assessments and application development (RangeView) Evaluating and developing climate monitoring protocols for land management agencies (National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring) Monthly Climate Bulletins (CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook & Coop. Ext. Southeast Arizona Climate Summary) Climate change workshops for Arizona land managers Integrating climate science into environmental education programs

16 Communications: The Extension Outreach publication Peer-reviewed Valued for tenure Distributed through extension programs, office, & websites Very few existing climate related publications Bulletin Seasonal Climate Forecasts North American Monsoon Finding and Utilizing Climate Products National Drought Monitor Climate Change in Arizona

17 Governor s Drought Task Force Monthly meetings and quarterly reports to Governor Partners include USGS, NOAA-NWS, NRCS, ADWR Extension provides reports from across state Need for AZ specific drought indices and more monitoring

18 S E C C R I S A S O UT H E A S T

19 Agricultural Research & Agricultural Extension James W. Jones Agricultural & Biological Engineering 1 SECC: Univ. of Miami, Florida State Univ., Univ. of Georgia, Univ. of Florida, Auburn Univ., Univ. Alabama-Huntsville

20 CLIMAS-SOUTHWEST RISA Climate Science Extension Program Goals & Objectives Main goal is to develop a climate information system focused on agriculture in the SE USA Applied forecasts and decision support tools Climate Extension Specialists Participatory approach 1. Work with growers and decision makers to define problems and opportunities and to evaluate potential solutions 2. Conduct research to provide scientific underpinnings 3. Translate research results into decision support tools 4. Develop methodologies with stakeholders to deliver information 5. Document utility and impact of implemented approach 6. Work with growers and decision makers to define further problems...

21 SOUTHEAST CLIMATE CONSORTIUM (SECC-RISA) Helping Farmers Make Decisions Weather Climate? Markets Agronomics What? ENSO Phase? Requires the understanding of a wide range of scientific and technical information! Our research and outreach inform and support decision making. Check us out online at secc.coaps.fsu.edu/

22 Extension, Farmer Use of Information Provided by SECC Commodity Outlooks jointly prepared by Extension Fact Sheets developed and used by Extension Modification of Extension recommendations or advice, making use of climate forecasts, i.e., Winter hay production (La Nina phase) Cotton land preparation (response to likely dry conditions) Freeze protection in citrus, vegetables Pest management Fertilizer management Broader assessments to be done to document uses

23 Extension SECC RISA Climate Extension Specialists (3) Training programs for Agents Sondeos (Rapid, Conversational Surveys with Extension Agents, Farmers, Others) Workshops (Agents, Farmers) AgClimate (Information & Decision Support System) Transition of AgClimate to Extension for Sustained Use, Management (starting in Florida) Increasing Administrative Support Across States

24 Extension Research & Development Activities New AgClimate Tool Development Generic mapping tool Localized impacts of ENSO phase on crop yields (USDA county-level yield records) Forecasts of Chill Units for management of high value crops (strawberry, peach, etc.) Integrate climate forecast & risk tools with up to date weather data for updating forecasts Improving, documenting AgClimate

25 Agricultural Climate Risk Information & Decision Support System ( Climate Information Extension Partnership Agricultural Commodity Risks Crop Forecast Outlook Forest Fire Risk USDA Cooperation

26 AgClimate: Risk Information and Decision Support System Getting here isn t fast or easy. Much research and outreach must precede development of tools such as these. CROPS: --Peanut --Potato --Tomato OTHER: --Livestock --Pasture --Forestry

27 County-Level ENSO Impacts on Yield vs. Year Production De-trended Yield Anomaly ENSO effects on yield

28 RANET (Radio Internet) Dissemination and Communication of Environmental Information for Rural and Remote Community Development Kelly Sponberg, March 2006

29 RANET DELIVERY SYSTEM Simplified System Diagram 3) At the top of nearly every hour the uplink station sends the uploaded information to the satellite for broadcast over all of Asia and parts of the Pacific. 2) Presentation sent via Internet to a satellite uplink station (Singapore or Melbourne). Some information automatically updated, others require manual uploading. 4) The broadcast is then received by digital radios that are hooked into computers. 5) The broadcast can be used by meteorological services, extension agencies, or even local communities who might use the content to improve their own products or to translate information into the local language and according to local interest. 1) Global, regional, national and local information from various producers blended into single presentation, compatible with satellite broadcast 6) Technologies, such as HF and VHF radio, telephone and Internet, allow rural communities and extension agencies to send information requests, provide feedback and receive technical support.

30 WorldSpace Coverage

31 RANET: Broadcast Capacity on WorldSpace Satellites (WorldSpace Stated Coverage) AsiaStar N.E. Beam AfriStar Beams AsiaStar Beams In partnership with First Voice International (FVI), RANET has utilized broadcast capacity on all three beam of the WorldSpace AfriStar satellite and the northwest and south beams of the WorldSpace AsiaStar satellite. FVI recently acquired broadcast capacity on the northeast beam of AsiaStar, thereby allowing RANET to operate on all three AsiaStar beams. Expansion onto the NE beam will allow RANET to reach parts of the Pacific outside the stated broadcast area of AsiaStar.

32 What is Worldspace? Developed and manages the satellite system for commercial digital radio broadcasting. Enables RANET to broadcast multimedia (digital data) content to all of Africa and most of Asia and parts of the Pacific FVI (First Voice International) provides RANET with access to a portion percentage of access dedicated to humanitarian use It differs from other satellite systems in that the receiving equipment is extremely inexpensive

33 How does RANET deliver the data? Provides access to Worldspace satellite networks covering Africa and most of Asia By accessing millions of dollars worth of satellite broadcast time through First Voice International data channels dedicated to humanitarian and development causes. RANET members and partners utilizing the satellite capacity do not pay a broadcast or other service fee. Works with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NHMHs) Partnerships collaborate to deliver to the last mile.

34 In-Person Local FM Radio Internet Phones WS Receiver Paper IVR (In Development) HF Global / Continental Regional WorldSpace AsiaStar and AfriStar SMS Gateway (Current Pilots) Wireless Phones Modem Bank (Pilot Development) Inmarsat Primary Control Servers One-Way (Broadcast) Two-Way (P-P In and P- MP Out)

35 Other RANET Implementations (Current and Planned) - Digital HF Networks - RANET Internet Presence Initiative (RIPI): Web Hosting and Training - RANET Alert Watcher (RAW): SMS Alert Notification - Community Reporter: Field Reporting Via SMS - Inmarsat BGAN: 2-Way Satellite System for Text Communication - GTS Life Lines - Broadcast Personalities - Regional Technical Support Personnel Housed at Existing Centers (e.g.- GCOS Technical Support Centers)

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37 RANET Application Example Kayunga, Uganda RALT 2 Field Visit November 2005

38 The Issue A farmer s cooperative, located outside of Kayunga, Uganda harvests a variety of fruits such as mango, pineapple, jackfruit, and banana. This and a number of cooperatives sun dry the fruit for bulk export to local and European markets. Sun drying conforms to organic standards and keeps operational costs low by avoiding expenses associated with use of fuel for ovens. However, the fruit takes two-three days to completely dry. A small rain shower during the drying period can destroy a large part of a harvest and labor necessary to prepare the fruit for drying. Weeks of work can literally be destroyed by a little rain.

39 The Community Kayunga is located about 80km north and east of Kampala. By road it is about and hour and a half driving. While the city center of the Kayunga community is powered, communication infrastructure is minimal. It has the only one telephone center for individuals in the surrounding community to use. Some cellular coverage exists in the city center, but ownership is very low and use is typically limited to small messages (SMS) to avoid the costs associated with voice communication.

40 The Community In Kayunga there is a District Farmers Association. These Associations are the primary extension units in the some 60 districts throughout Uganda. Funding for the Associations is minimal and supported by external donors, some local/municipal funds, and occasionally membership fees equivalent to $1 per year. Based on a number of site visits, Associations typically have a yearly operating budget (staff and supplies) of $1,000 - $4,000 USD. Many of the staff in these associations are volunteer or receive only a small stipend. The staff typically include a coordinator and 3-4 extension officers who travel around to the various farmers and cooperatives throughout each week. Farmers coming into town can also visit the Association to receive updates and other information.

41 Role of RANET The Uganda RANET coordinator, in cooperation with the Kayunga Farm Association and donors such as USAID and Action Aid, have setup a community information center at the Farmers Association office. This center includes a computer, printer, and WorldSpace receiver. The RANET coordinator also talks with the Farmer s Association to have extension staff describe farmer information needs. Back in Kampala, the RANET coordinator is able to upload information (weather and seasonal forecasts, agricultural bulletins, etc.) to the satellite broadcast. This information is then downloaded in Kayunga by the Farmers Association which prints information for visiting farmers and/or delivers information during a field visit by an extension officer. Farmers also use the same RANET system to receive information from other content providers such as market prices, information on crop diseases, child health, general education, and even construction of small structures.

42 1 Information Flow Diagram / Summary ) Information from the National Hydro-Meteorological Service (Uganda), such as weather forecasts and agricultural bulletins, as well as information, such as seasonal forecasts and satellite imagery, from external groups like the IRI, NOAA, FAO, DMCs, FEWS, etc, is uploaded to the RANET server. 2) The RANET servers format the content and automatically schedule it for broadcast over Africa on the WorldSpace AfriStar satellite. RANET broadcasts on the First Voice International Channel, which carries a variety of development and humanitarian information such as general health, agriculture, basic education, etc. 3) The AfriStar satellite broadcasts RANET and other content at specified times in a digital format. The First Voice International channel is a data/multimedia channel, meaning all content is text, graphic, or audio/video and downloaded to a computer. 4) The Kayunga Farmer Association receives the information at its offices via equipment provided by RANET and partnering aid organizations. 5) Information is printed for visiting farmers to use and extension officers with the Farmers Association who visit farmers and cooperatives to deliver information and further assess information needs.

43 EXTRA CPO PROGRAM SLIDES

44 NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP)

45 Sector Applications Research Program (SARP) GOAL: Build stronger socio-economic sectors through the enhanced use and understanding of climate information and technology. Including Interagency Partnerships: Dept. of Agriculture, Army Corps of Engineers Photo Credits: NOAA /// /// Carla Roncoli

46 SARP OBJECTIVES Provides an interdisciplinary, social science oriented, competitive grants program Identifies and reduces vulnerability though improved knowledge of climate s impact on society and the enhanced use of climate information Increases scientists and policy makers understanding of the needs and requirements of stakeholders Enhances society s ability (and scientists understanding of this ability) to plan for and adapt to future uncertainties Focuses on participatory education and outreach activities

47 SARP Agricultural Research Projects - Examples Early Warning of ENSO (El Nino) Events For Regional Agriculture Adaptations to Drought and Climate Variability in Agriculture Production Systems Across Nebraska Climate Information for Managing Risk through Agricultural Land and Machinery Contractual Arrangements Engaging Agricultural Communities in the Great Plains of the United States with the Applications and Developments of Climate Prediction and Information Effects of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on the Competitiveness in the Grain Market Economic Viability of Rangeland Based Ranching Enterprises

48 Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services (TRACS)

49 Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services (TRACS) Using grants based university and laboratory research - led by researchers CURRENT MISSION: to transition experimentally mature climate tools, methods, and processes from research mode into settings where they may be applied in an operational and sustained manner, generating continuous delivery of useful climate information products and services to local, regional, national, and international decision and policy makers. seeking not only to support implementation of these transitions, but also to learn from doing how better to accomplish technology transition processes for public goods applications and improved risk management.

50 TRACS TRANSITION PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS: Designed to accommodate four kinds of Transition Partnership Projects, bridging the last 100 yards 1) Within NOAA 2) From partners to NOAA 3) From NOAA to partners 4) Among NOAA partners (NOAA funds) 2005 Funded Projects: 3 Transitions from Universities to Regional Climate Centers 1 from University to Navy

51 TRACS Unit Model Decisionmakers Extension Problem Identification Education/ Outreach Prototype Development Transfer to Operations Research Operations

52 TRACS: Transition Project Performance Criteria climate time scale tools - climate-weather decisions defined partnership unit (at least 2 parties): decision maker, researcher, operations and extension components matching participant contributions formal agreement(s) among participants project management description - defined outcomes and benefits duration not to exceed 5 years Benefits analysis (rigorous valuation of socio-economic, ecosystem, or other measurable) Post-audit evaluation - sustainable transition?

53 EXTRA SLIDES

54 Evaluation of Climate Variability on Water Resources and Crop Yield in South Florida Analyze impacts of inter-annual precipitation variability on water resources and crop production in a pilot South Florida watershed Apply Watershed Assessment Model (WAM) linked to the crop yield model (DSSAT) Evaluate the response of different crops to spatial climate variations defined by the ENSO phase Compare results with similar studies being conducted by the SECC in other regions

55 WILDFIRE FORECASTING

56 Climate Drives Interannual Variability in Western Wildfire Antecedent Moisture plays an important role in promoting fuel accumulation. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BLM QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. USDA FS QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BIA Composite PDSI Large Forest vs Shrub & Grass Fires NPS Inter-annual variability in wildfire is strongly related to variability in Precipitation and Temperature

57 Climate Drives Decadal Variability in Western Wildfire QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BLM QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. USDA FS QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. NPS Decadal variability in wildfire reflects the influence of regionally dominant modes of climate variability on Precipitation and Temperature QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BIA NW Area Burned Reconstruction, PDO, & ENSO El Nino La Nina SW Area Burned Reconstruction, PDO, & ENSO La Nina El Nino

58 Climate - Wildfire Relationships Enable Seasonal Forecasts Federal Agency partners use these forecasts for their fire season assessments and budgeting QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BLM QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. USDA FS QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. BIA Composite PDSI Large Forest vs Shrub & Grass Fires NPS These relationships provide some skill in making seasonal forecasts of wildfire area burned

59 Seasonal Area Burned Forecasts Predictors: PDSI Forecast: Terciles PCA CCA L M H Predictands: Area Burned PCA

60 Decision Calendars for Wildfire Management Southern California Decisions J F M A M J J A S O N D Suppression Rx and Fire Use Seasonal Staffing Budgeting Special: Santa Ana Northern California Decisions J F M A M J J A S O N D Suppression Rx and Fire Use Seasonal Staffing Budgeting Special: Pile Burning Arizona & New Mexico Decisions J F M A M J J A S O N D Suppression Rx and Fire Use Seasonal Staffing Budgeting Special: Monsoon

61 Wildfire Alternatives (WALTER) EPA-STAR Funding CLIMAS-Associated Investigators Spinoff from first CLIMAS Fire-Climate Workshop Fire risk assessment Scenario generation Climate, Fuels Human Factors

62 National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

63 National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Creating a National Drought Early Warning System Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the initiative to convene and coordinate all of the relevant entities, including federal and non-federal partners, as well as scientists, water users and policymakers to implement those aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under existing authorities and funding.

64 NIDIS VISION and GOALS A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Implementation will require: building a national drought monitoring and forecasting system creating a drought early warning system providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, forums, etc)

65 National Integrated Drought Information System Customer defined measures of drought Research Monitoring Prediction Integrating Tools Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels Proactive Planning Impact Mitigation Improved Responses

66 Key NIDIS Components Improving and Integrating Observations and Data Systems and Forecasts Developing New Tools for analysis and decision support Coordinating monitoring, forecast, and impacts research and science Improving information dissemination and feedback

67 NOAA Programs Supporting the NIDIS NOAA Climate Services - Contributions from all NOAA Line Offices, Joint Institutes, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs), Regional Climate Centers, State Climatologists NOAA Operational Monitoring and Outlooks - Weekly Drought Monitor and Monthly Drought Outlook NOAA Research - Applied climate research to understand and predict drought onset, duration, and impacts, including RISAs NOAA Cooperative Observer Network Modernization - Implementation of a National Mesonet would provide near real time climate, weather, and water observations for resource and emergency management Current network has poorest coverage in the West, especially at high elevations where most precipitation falls as snow.