The Rise of Medium-Scale Farms in Africa

Transcription

1 The Rise of Medium-Scale Farms in Africa Thom Jayne, Milu Muyanga, Saweda LiverpoolTasie, Titus Awokuse Presentation at Agricultural Policy Research in Africa Consortium Inception Workshop, Institute for Development Studies (IDS), Sussex, UK, January 31, Funded by UK aid from the UK Government

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3 1. Major changes in farm size distributions 2. Rise of medium-scale farms 3. Mainly urban-based people and influential rural people 4. Emerging land markets allocating land to those with wealth and political connections 5. Very small fraction of small-scale farmers able to expand into great scales of production 6. Grain marketing systems are changing as MS farms becoming more important

4 Ghana Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area ha 1,458,540 1,725, ha 578, , ha 116, , ha 38, , % ha 18,980 46, >100 ha -- 6, * Total 2,211,900 3,102, Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys

5 Zambia Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area ha 638, , ha 159, , ha 20, , ha 2,352 53, % ha -- 13, ** Total 820,341 1,399, Source: Zambia MAL Crop Forecast Surveys, 2001 and 2012

6 Kenya Number of farms % growth in number of farms % of total cultivated area ha 1,692,343 2,640, ha 525, , ha 93,871 17, > 10 ha 92,498 19, *** Average Landholding Size: 1994: 13 ha 2006: 31 ha Total 2,404,075 3,008, Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

7 Large Poverty scale Reduction Programmes K1,793 [58%] Medium -scale (5-100 ha) Millions of hectares Personnel Emoluments Mediumscale K462 [15%] farmers land acquisition Grants & Other Payments K92 [3%] Smallscale (0-5 ha) Potentially available cropland remaining Ghana Kenya Zambia

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9 Characteristics of the emergent farmers

10 Percent Three sub-categories of medium scale farmers 5 Successful smallholder farmers via farm expansion Estimates from three countries Zambia, Kenya and Southern Ghana

11 100 Three sub-categories of medium scale farmers Percent Estimates from three countries Zambia, Kenya and Southern Ghana 35 "Elite rural based" 5 Successful smallholder farmers via farm expansion

12 Percent Three sub-categories of medium scale farmers "Elite urban based" "Elite rural based" Successful smallholder farmers via farm expansion 5 Estimates from three countries Zambia, Kenya and Southern Ghana

13 Mode of entry into medium-scale farming status Zambia Kenya Acquisition of land from non-farm employment Acquisition of land from nonfarm employment (n=164) (n=180) % of cases % men Year of birth Years of education of head Have held a job other than as a farmer (%) Formerly /currently employed by the public sector (%) Current landholding size (ha) % of land currently under cultivation Decade when land was acquired 1969 or earlier or later Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015

14 Mode of entry into medium-scale farming status Zambia Kenya Expansion of rural elite Expansion of rural elite (n=118) (n=120) % of cases % men Year of birth Years of education of head Have held a job other than as a farmer (%) Formerly or currently employed by the public sector (%) Current landholding size (ha) % of land currently under cultivation Decade when land was acquired 1969 or earlier or later Source: MSU, UP, and ReNAPRI Retrospective Life History Surveys, 2015

15 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% / /2014 Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various years between

16 35% 32.7% 30% 26.8% 25% 22.0% 22.0% 20% 18.3% 16.8% 15% 10% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 5% 0% / Source: 2013/2014 DHS Ghana Kenya Malawi Rwanda Tanzania Zambia

17 Rising landholding concentration Period Movement in Gini coefficient: Ghana (cult. area) 1992 à à 0.70 Kenya (cult. area) 1994 à à 0.55 Zambia (landholding) 2001 à à 0.49 Source: Jayne et al (JIA)

18 Adjusted price (2004=100) Rental rate (MWK/ha) Agricultural wage (MWK/day) MWK/kg urea MWK/kg maize Sources: IHS for land and wages; FEWSNET for urea and maize

19 300 Adjusted price (2008/9=100) Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) /9 2010/ /13 19

20 Price index (2008/9=100) Agricultural wage (TSH/day) Land rental rate (TSH/ha) Maize (TSH/kg) /9 2010/ /13 20

21 Small-scale traders Large-scale traders Millers/processors FRA Land size MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % 2012 Total MT sold 0 to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % % % of total to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % %

22 Small-scale traders Large-scale traders Millers/processors FRA Land size MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % 2012 Total MT sold 0 to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % % % of total to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % %

23 Small-scale traders Large-scale traders Millers/processors FRA Land size MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % 2012 Total MT sold 0 to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % % % of total to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % %

24 Causes of rapid changes in farmland ownership: Consequences of rapid changes in farmland ownership: Impact on downstream organization and concentration of food systems Policy implications for African governments? Land policy? Youth access to land? How to achieve synergies between MS and SS farms? Governments need information on how rising urban-based investor farmers are affecting national policy objectives

25 Thank you

26 Africa s rapid population growth Billions of people Rest of world Sub-Saharan Africa

27 Small-scale traders Large-scale traders Millers/processors FRA Land size MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % MT sold row % 2012 Total MT sold 0 to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % % % of total to 2 ha % % % % % 2 to 5 ha % % % % % 5 to 10 ha % % % % % >10 ha % % % % % Total % % % % %

28 Total Rural Population (millions) China India SSA Other South Asia South-East Asia Source: UN