Agriculture development and ecosystems management in Africa from a collision course to a coalition for the SDGs

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1 Agriculture development and ecosystems management in Africa from a collision course to a coalition for the SDGs Philip Osano Deputy Center Director Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Africa Center Africa Dialogue on the World in th August 2017 Kigali, Rwanda

2 Outline 1. Background and introduction 2. Challenges for reconciling agriculture and ecosystems management 3. Opportunities for integrated planning

3 The Global Goals for Sustainable Development The interlinkages and integrated nature of the Sustainable Development Goals are of crucial importance in ensuring that the purpose of the Agenda 2030 is realised. If we realize our ambitions across the full extent of the Agenda, the lives of all will be profoundly improved and our world will be transformed for the better.

4 Biodiversity and agriculture from collision to coalition? Diverse relationship between agricultural development and biodiversity conservation Plant and animal genetic material form the core of agriculture (crop and livestock species) agrobiodiversity The biodiversity conservation narrative dominated by a focus on wild nature Debate on land sparing vs. land sharing

5 Farming systems in Africa diverse and complex Legend 1. Irrigated 2. Tree crop 3. Forest based 5. Highland perennial 6. Highland temperate mixed 7. Root crop 8. Cereal-root crop mixed 9. Maize mixed 11. Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum 12. Pastoral 13. Sparse (arid) 14. Coastal artisanal fishing 16. Perenial mixed

6 Challenges for reconciling agriculture and ecosystems management

7 Challenge 1: Yield Gap Yield levels stagnant and low!

8 Increasing fertiliser use to enhance crop productivity Policies (e.g. Abuja & Malabo Declarations): inorganic vs. ORGANIC fertilizer consumption Excessive N in the environment (planetary boundary exceeded) National Fertilizer Subsidy Programs: 10 governments spend about US$1 billion annually on FSP Multi-sectoral approach (Finance/Agriculture/Environment) Potential for private sector engagement

9 Manuring perceived benefits to farmers (Western Kenya) High perceived benefits across all three counties Benefits in increases in yield and decreases in labour use Time lag between implementation and accrual of benefits assumed Bungoma Kakamega Siaya Three counties Full benefits accrued in Year 3, 75% in Year 2 Cost of construction (labour Ksh/acre) Annual cost (labour Ksh/acre) 3,975 1,652 2,761 2,445 Perceived benefit (increase in yield kg/acre) Perceived benefit (decrease in labour hrs/acre) Gross profit from second crop (Ksh/acre) Perceived Benefit (Ksh/acre) 29,880 21,314 14,347 20,639

10 Manuring perceived benefits to farmers (Western Kenya) Return on investment: payback period always short, regardless of discount rate

11 Challenge 2: Sources of Growth Increase in production is from expansion of cultivated land Million Hectares Land Use, History plus Forecast Year

12 Kenya: Changes in arid and semi- arid lands (ASAL) area under cropland ( ) Agriculture in 1981 Agriculture in 2000 Crop cultivation in ASALs increased by 34% in period In 2000, ~ 11% of ASAL was under crop agriculture Increased intensification of livestock production in ASALs Ref: ILRI; Osano et al., 2010

13 1970 (light green color: ) 2000 (dark green color: ) Wildlife biomass (g/m -2 ) in Kenya: Crop cultivation in ASAL in relation to wildlife distribution Mombasa NAIROBI Narok < N Kilometers Osano et al.,2013; Norton-Griffith & Said, 2010

14 Opportunities for integrated planning

15 Opportunities The Maputo declaration (2003) adopted the CAADP (Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme) as the continental framework for agricultural development Target: AU member states to allocate 10% of annual budget for Agricultural development NAIPs (National Agriculture Investment Plans)

16 2014 Malabo Declaration targets Commitment 3: Ending Hunger in Africa by 2025 Double current agricultural productivity (inputs, irrigation and mechanization) Commitment 6: Enhance resilience in livelihoods and production systems to climate variability and other shocks 30% of farm/pastoral households resilient to shocks by 2025 Mainstream resilience and risk management in policies, strategies and investment plans

17 Water-Energy - Food Nexus Pay attention to synergies and trade-offs through integrated planning

18 Nexus Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Three stories about the future Business as usual (BAU): slow development, low adoption of new technology National plans (Nat Plans): full adoption of technologies according to national policies Nexus (Nexus): resolving outstanding dilemmas, new policy and innovation needs Population increase same in all scenarios

19 Nexus Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Karlberg et al., Food-Energy-Environment Nexus in Ethiopia. Water Alternatives 8(1):

20 Nexus Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Indirect and direct links between energy transitions and agricultural transformations Resource competition between sectors: land and water cannot be substituted for food production Climate change: dictates transformation of energy and agricultural sectors Policy / planning implementation + new investments: need for cross-sector dialogue underpinned by quantitative assessments Karlberg et al., Food-Energy-Environment Nexus in Ethiopia. Water Alternatives 8(1):

21 Nexus Akagera Basin, Rwanda Agricultural transformation Extensification and intensification: 8.1% increase in croplands under irrigation by Energy transition 100% adoption of improved cookstoves by % adoption of efficient charcoal kilns by % adoption of LPG in urban areas by % adoption of biogas in rural areas by 2050 Universal electricity access by 2030 Impacts on resources?? Water Biomass

22 Nexus Akagera Basin, Rwanda Biomass demand and supply BAU scenario vs. National plans scenario

23 Interactions between Sustainable Development Goals Interactions between Water, Energy and Food Targets

24 Nilsson, et al., Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Vol. 534 (16 June 2016)

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26 Ahsante sana! Thank You!