March 2018 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATES. Overview

Transcription

1 March 2018 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATES Overview Corn: This month s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger exports and increased corn used to produce ethanol. Corn used to produce ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to billion. Exports were raised 175 million bushels to billion, reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina. Ending stocks were lowered 225 million bushels to billion and if realized would be down from the prior marketing year. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers was narrowed 10 cents on the low end to $3.15 to $3.55 per bushel, with the midpoint up 5 cents this month to $3.35 per bushel. Soybeans: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month s report. Soybean crush was increased by 10 million bushels to 1,960 million with increased soybean meal exports. Soybean exports were reduced 35 million bushels to 2,065 million with increased production and exports for Brazil. Soybean stocks are projected at 555 million bushels, up 25 million from last month. There were no changes this month to the season-average price midpoint, which remained at $9.30 per bushel. Long-Grain Rice: There were no changes this month to the U.S. long-grain balance sheet. The U.S. season-average long-grain price was also unchanged at $5.265 per bushel. Ending stocks are projected to fall to 16.4 million cwt. compared to 31 million last year. Global 2017/18 rice production was increased to a new record of million tons, fractionally surpassing last year s record. World ending stocks were projected to increase to million tons for 2017/18, which would match the second highest on record. China now holds over 66 percent of total stocks. Cotton: This month s 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts included lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production was reduced 233,000 bales to 21.0 million. Domestic mill use was unchanged from last month, but exports were increased by 300,000 bales to 14.8 million, based partly on expectations of above-average shipments during the second half of the marketing year. Ending stocks were trimmed by 500,000 bales to 5.5 million. The 2017/18 marketing year average price was unchanged from last month at 69 cents.

2 billion bu. billion bu. USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND ESTIMATES: March 2018 U.S. CORN DEMAND Feed FSI Exports Total Demand 2016/ /18 Feb /18 Mar U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND Exports Crush Seed / Res Total Demand 2016/ /18 Feb /18 Mar

3 million 480# bales million cwt. USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND ESTIMATES: March 2018 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE DEMAND Exports Domestic Total Demand 2016/ /18 Feb /18 Mar U.S. COTTON DEMAND Exports Mill Use Total Demand 2016/ /18 Feb /18 Mar

4 USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND ESTIMATES: March 2018 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS billion bu. U.S. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS billion bu.

5 USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND ESTIMATES: March 2018 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE ENDING STOCKS million cwt. U.S. COTTON ENDING STOCKS million 480# bales

6 USDA SUPPLY / DEMAND ESTIMATES: March 2018 U.S. Average Producer Price. 2016/ /18 forecast Corn $3.36 $3.35 Soybeans $9.47 $9.30 Long-Grain Rice $4.32 / bu. $5.265 / bu. Southern Medium-Grain $4.55 / bu. $5.355 / bu. Cotton Wheat $3.89 $4.65 Grain Sorghum $2.79 $3.15 Source: USDA, March Argentina soybean production was forecast at 47.0 million tons, down 7.0 million from last month mainly due to lower projected yields resulting from dry conditions through much of the growing region in January and February. Argentine soybean production is expected to decline 10.8 mmt from last year. Brazil soybean production was raised 1.0 million tons to million. South American Crop Production (mmt) CORN SOYBEANS Argentina Brazil Argentina Brazil USDA March USDA Feb Source: USDA, March For an accessible version of this document please contact H. Scott Stiles at sstiles@uaex.edu or The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.