1. Newly harvested grain. 2. Moorepark Research. Testing the safety of genetically modified (GM) feed ingredients in pigs

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2 1. Newly harvested grain Newly harvested grain is still metabolically active and this will continue for about 4 weeks after harvesting. This results in changes to the non-starch polysaccharide (NSP) and starch components of the grain. For this reason newly harvested grain differs in its digestibility and its effect on the gut environment compared to grain from the previous year s harvest. This will influence the bacterial population in the gut of the pig. A quick change in diet from old to new season grain can result in the proliferation of pathogenic bacteria such as E. coli with negative effects on health and performance. Young pigs and lactating sows are at the greatest risk. To avoid this problem; Store grain for at least 4-6 weeks after harvest Blend new season grain with last year s grain Use an appropriate NSP degrading enzyme Avoid feeding harvested grain to very young pigs and lactating sows 2. Moorepark Research Testing the safety of genetically modified (GM) feed ingredients in pigs A three-and-a-half year research project was conducted by staff of the Teagasc Pig Development Department to determine health effects in pigs fed genetically modified (GM) maize and peas. The results of this project are important, as EU consumer confidence in GM technology is low, largely due to perceived health risks associated with the consumption of GM food. Based on our results the GM maize tested (Bt MON810) did not have harmful effects on growth, intestinal health or organ function of pigs. Bacteria within the digestive systems of pigs are tolerant of the GM maize. In addition, the cry1ab gene, as well as the protein itself have been shown not to migrate from the digestive tract and the gene was broken down as it progressed through the digestive tract. It was concluded that feeding GM maize to pigs of different ages and for extended periods of time is as safe as its conventional counterpart with respect to potential effects on animal health. Furthermore, our results did not reveal any reason for concern regarding the safety of the GM αai peas tested. The pea study identified the need to include multiple conventional comparators (non-gm varieties) of the same feed ingredient during safety assessment to avoid erroneous conclusions. More detailed information on the project can be found on the project website And on the Teagasc website at Page 2

3 New research project to target improvements in Feed Efficiency A new project titled A whole systems approach to optimising feed efficiency and reducing the ecological footprint of monogastrics or in short ECO-FCE was launched last February in Belfast. This project is co-financed by the European Commission. Through a better understanding of the interactions between animal genetics, gut structure and function, the microbial population of the gut and the attributes of feed, ECO-FCE will propose strategies to improve the feed use efficiency whilst also reducing their ecological footprint. The project is co-coordinated by Queen s University Belfast and the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) Hillsborough. It brings together an international consortium of 17 partners from across Europe and the US to win 6M research funding over a 4 year period to conduct a project which will focus on one common objective: To provide the European pig and poultry industries with innovative strategies and tools to feed a rapidly growing global population in an efficient and ecologically-friendly manner. The Teagasc Pig Development Department will play a central role in the project, leading one of its seven work packages while actively participating in all others. Another organisation from the Republic of Ireland playing an important role in the project is Hermitage Genetics. The core scientific work of ECO-FCE is divided into a number of interactive sub-projects: Development of an ECO-FCE warehouse: Existing research into factors to improve feed use efficiency (FCE) and reduce the ecological footprint of pigs and broiler chickens is plentiful but perhaps underutilised. ECO-FCE will compile this information into one, easy-to-use electronic warehouse. This will be available for use by the pig and poultry industries to predict the effect of management and feeding practices on FCE and environmental pollutants. Novel feeding strategies: ECO-FCE will substantially advance animal nutrition and feed science in both pigs and broiler chickens. Precision feeding of pigs and nutrient management for broilers will be key areas of research. The use of a range of feed additives will also be investigated to determine their effectiveness in improving FCE and reducing ammonia emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus excretion. Gut manipulation: Using cutting edge technologies, ECO-FCE will identify characteristics of gut structure and microbial populations in the gut which promote good and poor FCE in pigs and broiler chickens. Using this knowledge, strategies to manipulate the gut to promote a good gut microbiome in compromised animals will then be tested. Development of biomarkers for nutrient partitioning: ECO-FCE will identify genetic biomarkers that are: (1) diagnostic for the utilisation and partitioning of nutrients, (2) indicative of the animal s reactivity to nutritional and management interventions to improve FCE, and (3) informative regarding the genetic potential of the animal Tool development and validation: Industry tools that will be developed include the ECO-FCE hub (developed from the ECO-FCE warehouse ) which will allow end-users to extract information specific to their personal query, an ecological calculator and genomic models. Further project details can be found at Anyone interested in knowing more or following the progress of ECO-FCE can also register as a stakeholder through the website and receive regular updates. ECO-FCE is funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007/20) under grant agreement No Page 3

4 3. Pig Feed Review and Outlook The September edition of the Teagasc Monthly Feed Monitor showed a healthy margin over feed (51c/ kg dwt) for the first time since August The previous low margin reflects the pressure that the pig industry has been under over the last number of years as a result of either low pig prices or high feed prices. A continuation of this healthy margin is imperative to allow pig units to return to normal credit limits and achieve a sustainable financial footing. The short term outlook for feed ingredients will play an important role dictating future composite feed prices and therefore margin over feed. The recent successful harvest in the Northern Hemisphere is helping to fill the wheat, barley and maize supply deficit left by the drought last year. The soyabean harvest is due to begin in the US in the next few weeks but the forecasted supply situation continues to remain changeable. Wheat Outlook The global wheat production for 20/14 is now expected to be 50 million tons (Mt) higher then in 2012/ primarily due to the excellent harvest results in the; EU, Black Sea region, US-Canada, allied to a optimistic outlook for the forthcoming Australian harvest. EU: The Irish wheat crop overcame a difficult spring and while yields were variable around the country, overall it returned good results and excellent grain quality. The total tonnage of wheat produced is expected to be lower in 20 (514,000 t) compared to 2012 (599,000 t) due to wheat planting been substituted by barley. However the overall production of grains (wheat, barley, oats) is expected to be up 15-16% in 20/14. Ireland also imports a considerable amount of wheat, usually from the U.K. and France. Table 1 shows the principle country of origin in 2012/. Table 1: Origin of wheat imports into Ireland in 2012/ Origin 000s of Tonnes France 101 Denmark 88 UK 62 Poland 59 Other 8 Total 448 It is interesting to note that Denmark overtook the UK in 2012/ for wheat imports into Ireland. The good weather conditions in Europe also provided good harvesting results. The wheat harvests in Germany, Romania and Spain are each estimated to be 2 Mt higher, with France estimated to be 1.8 Mt higher. The quality of the yield (hectolitre weight) is also estimated to be better than last years harvest which is positive for the energy content of the grain. The net result of this years improved yield is that the EU wheat closing stock for 20/14 has recovered from the low of 2012/. Table 2 shows the closing stock decline in 2012/ and recovery in 20/14 (+1.9 Mt). Page 4

5 Table 2: EU 28 Wheat Balance (Mt) Year Opening Stk Production Imports Exports Demand Closing Stk 2011/ / / SG, 20 Black Sea The Black sea region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan) returned an improved harvest this summer (80%+ now harvested) after the roller-coaster highs and lows of the last few years. This is expected to result in higher export volumes over the coming months. Table 3 illustrates the volatile exports from this region over the last three years due to drought conditions. The increased export volume in 20/14 should give the international market a greater supply of cheap wheat over the coming months. Table 3: Black Sea Region Production & Exports /14 Year Production Exports Closing Stock 2011/ / / SG, 20 US & Canada The US and Canada are the largest and fourth largest global wheat exporters, respectively, and therefore have a big impact on the export trade for 20/14. The US harvest is estimated at 57.3 Mt down by 4 Mt from 2012 (61.8 Mt). In contrast the Canadian harvest has fared much better due to ideal weather conditions in July-August. The Canadian production is expected to increase by 3.6 Mt thereby producing their biggest wheat harvest in 20 years. Overall wheat production in North America for 20/14 is forecasted to be relatively stable at 88.2 Mt. Australia Australia continues to develop as an exporting nation, now ranked in the top three each year. The crop is currently emerging from the Australian winter and the plant development appears good at present due to sufficient amounts of moisture. Current production estimates are 24 Mt which is higher then 2012 (22.1 Mt) but not reaching the record peak of 29.9 Mt which was achieved in 2011/12. The weather conditions (moisture) over the next two months will be critical for grain fill and therefore will dictate the yield potential. Page 5

6 Global wheat stock-to-use ratio Overall the production of wheat is estimated to be higher in 20/14 (+50 Mt) with demand remaining stable. This should result in the global closing stock and stock-to-use ratio increasing. An increase in these parameters eases the supply-demand on wheat, thereby increasing its buffering ability to sudden shocks in the market place during the year. Table 4: Global Wheat Balance Year Opening Stk Production Demand Closing Stk Stock-to-use % 2011/ / / USDA 20 Maize Outlook Global maize production suffered last year due to drought conditions in the US. This caused an increase in the maize price and an increased demand on wheat as a substitute product. The recent dry conditions in the US mid-west is predicted to reduce maize production but thankfully the maize supply in the US is still estimated higher this year (see Table 5) as reflected in the higher estimated US closing stock for 20/14. The increased supply should help to relieve the international price over the coming months. Table 5: US Maize Supply Year Opening Stk Production Demand Export/Import Closing Stk 2012/ / USDA 20 The volume of US maize for ethanol usage in 20/14 is estimated at 125 Mt (+6 Mt). However the US EPA are currently examining the mandatory incorporation level of ethanol in gasoline (with a view to reducing it) so this may have a beneficial effect on the forecasted 20/14 closing stock. On a global basis the level of maize production is forecasted to grow by 70.2 Mt in 20/14, although consumption is expected to increase by 39.2 Mt. Overall this will still increase the 20/14 global closing stock by 21 Mt (120.3 Mt vs Mt) with the resultant 20/14 stock-to-use percentage increasing to a more comfortable 15.5%, up 1.7% from 2012/. Table 6: Global Maize Balance 20/14 Year Opening Stk Production Demand Closing Stk Stock-to-use % 2012/ / The increased maize supply indicates that there is capacity for substitution from wheat to maize thereby minimising the likelihood of an increase in wheat prices during 20/14, provided the Australian harvest meets expectations. Page 6

7 Soyabean Outlook The US soyabean crop has now been hit by back-to-back summer droughts in 2012 & 20. The drought of 2012 was the worst in 50 years and was widespread over the US mid-west. The 20 drought in August was more localised around Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota but was severe - fourth worst drought in 115 years in some areas. The late on-set of the drought resulted in wheat and maize largely escaping the worst effects as they were at a mature level of plant development. The soyabean crop however was just entering the critical flowering stage in August and therefore was vulnerable. The USDA forecast that this would result in a yield per acre downgrade from 42.6 to 39.6 bushels, the equivalent of 2.89 Mt nationally. Trade analysts believe that the yield damage is not as severe and are pitching the yield at bushels/acre. The effect of this downgrade is that the previously predicted bumper US crop, allied to the earlier bumper South American crop should have led to high global soyabean ending stocks in 20/14. While the ending stock will have improved we will now await the South American crop (spring) or potentially the US crop in 12 months time for soyabean stocks to become abundant. The good news is that the high soyabean price over the last two years is expected to incentivise increased soyabean plantings in Brazil and Paraguay. This could lead to Brazil surpassing the US in 2014 as the leading producer of soyabean for the first time ever. Table 7: Soyabean Supply & Use (Million Mt) Year Opening Stock Production Demand Import/Export Closing Stock 2011/ / / Page 7

8 Composite Feed Price The Irish composite pig feed price reached an all-time high of 378/tonne in spring 20 (see Table 8) due to the time-lag effect of the 2012 US drought. Table 8: Teagasc Monthly Price Monitor Sept 12 Sept Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan Feb 1 3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 12 mth. Ave Teagasc Monthly Price Monitor 20 The composite price has since declined by 41 per tonne in the intervening months, returning to the July-August 2012 price. The spot ingredient price at the start of July 2012 and September 20 are shown in Table 9. Table 9: Feed Ingredient Prices July 2012* Sept 20* Soyabean /t Maize /t Wheat /t Barley /t Composite / tonne * Ingredient prices ex-port. Composite price delivered. Teagasc Monthly Price Monitor 20 The 2012 & 20 soyabean price is similar with the wheat, maize and barley price lower in September 20. This would indicate that there is potential for a further decrease in the composite feed price in the short term but this will be dependent on fluctuation in the soyabean price and the extended length of feed credit for individual pig producers. The medium term outlook appears to indicate that there is a sufficient global supply of maize to minimise a significant price rise in either maize or wheat but this will be dependent on the Australian wheat harvest. The soybean price is harder to predict as it will be dependent on the current US harvest reaching 41 bushels/acre, the Brazilian harvest in spring 2014 reaching 85+ Mt and the Chinese soya purchases not exceeding current expectations of Mt in 20/14. For Information Ciarán Carroll, Phone: (025) ciaran.carroll@teagasc.ie Page 8 Fermoy Print & Design