WEEKLY WHEAT REPORT 20 NOVEMBER 2018

Transcription

1 18/1/2 18/1/16 18/1/3 18/2/13 18/2/27 18/3/13 18/3/27 18/4/1 18/4/24 18/5/8 18/5/22 18/6/5 18/6/19 18/7/3 18/7/17 18/7/31 18/8/14 18/8/28 18/9/11 18/9/25 18/1/9 18/1/23 18/11/6 18/11/2 WEEKLY WHEAT REPORT 2 NOVEMBER 218 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : INTERNATIONAL MARKET Table 1: CME and KCBT wheat prices and weekly change (cents/bushel) Currently 13/11/218 Weekly change Monthly change (c/bu) (c/bu) CME ¼ 57 ¾ -8 ½ -8 ¾ KCBT ¾ US wheat prices ended lower in the past week with both ember CME and KCBT wheat prices coming under some pressure. On a monthly basis US wheat prices are also lower with ember CME giving up 1.7% while ember KCBT wheat gave up 6.4% in the past week. On the technical chart for ember KCBT wheat we see that the market did come under some more pressure in the past week with prices trading to a new contract low of $4.7/bushel in the session yesterday. The moving average and indicators remain under pressure but the market is oversold and as mentioned before there could be some divergence between the RSI and prices. US wheat prices are still under pressure given the slow export progress seen for US wheat. Wheat out of the Black Sea region continues to be the most favored origin in the global export market. Elsewhere in the world European milling wheat futures also traded lower in the past week. US wheat market From the graph below we see that US wheat prices did come under pressure in the past week despite the fact that the dollar did come under some pressure. ember KCBT wheat futures gave up 2.7% in the past week while the dollar is 1.4% weaker. The dollar tested the 1.12 area once again in the past week which initially pressured US wheat prices but the dollar is well off those levels currently. The weaker dollar is usually supportive for US grain exports but the US wheat market is still facing massive competition out of the Black Sea region. Figure 1: ember KCBT wheat and dollar/euro KCBT Dollar/Euro US wheat export progress The graph below presents the US wheat export progress seen this time of the year in the past few seasons. In the 218/19 marketing season the cumulative wheat committed for exports is the 2 nd lowest for this time of the year in the past 6-years. The 218/19 US wheat committed for exports represents 51% of the USDA wheat export estimate which is well below the 5-year average seen at 7% for this time of the year. This could result in a lower US wheat export estimate going forward.

2 Figure 2: US wheat export commitments to date and % of total ( tons) 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/ Exports to date (1 tons) % of total (RHS) USDA crop progress and conditions report The USDA in their crop progress report indicated that 93% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted which is up from the 89% reported last week. The 5-year average planting progress for this time of the year is seen at 97% complete. The USDA in their report also indicated that 56% of the US winter wheat crop could be rated as good/excellent which is 2% higher than the crop rating seen last week. Figure 3: US winter wheat crop conditions (% rated as good/excellent) European wheat prices European wheat prices did come under some pressure in the past week with ember wheat prices giving up 2.6% in the past week. ember European wheat prices broke below 2/ton and came under some more pressure after that. Milling wheat futures are trading around 197/ton which was a level last seen in mid-september. 2

3 18/7/2 18/7/9 18/7/16 18/7/23 18/7/3 18/8/6 18/8/13 18/8/2 18/8/27 18/9/3 18/9/1 18/9/17 18/9/24 18/1/1 18/1/8 18/1/15 18/1/22 18/1/29 18/11/5 18/11/12 18/11/ Figure 4: European milling wheat prices (euro/t) Local wheat market South African wheat prices ended lower in the past week with ember and March wheat giving up 2.46% and 2.28% in the past week respectively. South African wheat prices were pressured by the stronger rand seen in the past week while the US wheat futures also traded lower. The rand posted some gains in the past week with the rand briefly trading below R14./$ but the rand is back at R14.1/$ currently. The dollar was under some pressure in the past week which is usually supportive for the rand Figure 5: Safex wheat, rand and US wheat prices CME KCBT Rand/$ Safex Safex Mar South African wheat prices did come under some pressure in the past week with ember wheat futures giving up 2.45% in the past week. The stronger rand seen for most of the past week also added some pressure. The rand broke below some of its key moving averages in the past week including the 1-day average with the rand finding some support around R13.9 and the rand has weakened after that. The rand is currently trading around R14.1/$. 3

4 18/2/23 18/3/9 18/3/23 18/4/6 18/4/2 18/5/4 18/5/18 18/6/1 18/6/15 18/6/29 18/7/13 18/7/27 18/8/1 18/8/24 18/9/7 18/9/21 18/1/5 18/1/19 18/11/2 18/11/ Figure 6: Safex wheat and Rand/$ Safex wheat Rand/$ The weekly South African wheat imports for the week ending the 9 th of November indicated that tons of wheat was imported in the past week. The wheat that was imported in the past week originated from the Ukraine. This brings the cumulative wheat imports for the season to date at tons Figure 7: South African monthly wheat imports (Tons) The weekly South African producer deliveries of wheat for the week ending the 9 th of November indicated that tons of wheat was delivered in the past week. This brings the cumulative produce deliveries of wheat for the season to date at tons. 4

5 Figure 8: Weekly producer delvieries of wheat (tons) Nov 9 Nov FOCUS FOR THE WEEK US wheat prices traded lower in the past week with the slow export progress of US wheat still weighing on the market. The export progress is well behind the pace seen in the past few seasons and this could result in a lower export estimate for the US going forward. On the technical chart for ember KCBT wheat we see that the market traded to a new contract low of $4.7 in the past week. The moving averages and indicators remain under pressure but there could be some divergence between the RSI and prices. South African wheat prices did trade lower in the past week with the lower US wheat futures and the stronger rand seen in the past week adding some pressure. The rand briefly traded below R14./$ in the past week. The weekly producer deliveries have started to gain some momentum as seen in the report which is probably also bringing some additional selling interest. On the technical chart for ember Safex wheat we see that the market did come under some pressure breaking below the 1-day average earlier and some follow through selling was seen after that. The market did get some support in the R424 area and pulled off the lows. The moving averages remain under pressure but the RSI is looking to recover from the oversold territory. See the technical graphs below: Safex -18 wheat prices KCBT -18 wheat prices 5

6 Daily WEAZ8 Cndl, WEAZ8, Trade Price 218/11/2, , 4 29., 4 25., 4 29., +4., (+.94%) SMA, WEAZ8, Trade Price(Last), 1 218/11/2, SMA, WEAZ8, Trade Price(Last), 4 218/11/2, SMA, WEAZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9 218/11/2, /5/3-218/11/3 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, WEAZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 218/11/2, Value ZAR T MACD, WEAZ8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential 218/11/2, , Value ZAR T May 218 e 218 July 218 ust 218 September 218 ober 218 November 218 6

7 Daily KWZ8 Cndl, KWZ8, Trade Price, 218/11/2, 473, / 4, 472, / 4, + 1 / 2, (+.11%), SMA, KWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 218/11/2, / 8+, SMA, KWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 4, 218/11/2, 55 3 / 8+, SMA, KWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 1, 218/11/2, / 2+ MACD, KWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential, 218/11/2, -9 1 / 2+, -8+ RSI, KWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 218/11/2, /1/29-218/12/6 (CHG) Price USc Bsh / / / / 4 1/8 Value USc Bsh / 2+ 1/8 Value USc Bsh ruary 218 March 218 il 218 May 218 e 218 July 218 ust 218 September 218 ober 218 November 218 7