Referendum and Food Security Situation Sudan

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1 Referendum Timeline Referendum and Food Security Situation Sudan January February March April Mai June July January Preliminary results declared at pooling centers, counties and state 1: Preliminary referendum results declared by SSRC 4 : Last day for appeals 6: Declaration of referendum results if no appeal 14: Declaration of results if appeal 9: End of CPA Pending issues Seasonal Calendar Abyei referendum Popular consultation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile Transboundary Rights Citizenship Oil Sharing Agreement Water and ressources management Debt International treaties and conventions Dry Season Main rain season First crop Sudan Referendum without Food Security is Meaningless. For a democratic government to function properly, Food security remains a key element Dr. Ann Itto Leonardo, Agriculture and Forestry Minister in the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) 7sept2010

2 FAO/ WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment 12/01/11: Food security has improved markedly but will be dependant on peaceful referendum and level of returnees in 2011 Main findings Crop growing conditions were generally good in 2010 Rainfall started on time in most locations and rainfall levels were normal to above normal and generally well distributed. Animal body conditions are satisfactory due to improved availability of pasture and water; fishery is expected to yield above average catches this year. Cereal prices have generally declined in the third quarter of 2010, while livestock prices were on the rise, signifying that the terms of trade are now more favorable to pastoralists Despite some localized dry spells and floods, 2010 cereal crop production is estimated at tons, nearly 30 percent higher than Currently overall an cereal estimated deficit 890 in people : are tonnes severely to food be covered insecure by and commercial an additional imports 2.4 and million food assistance. people are moderately food insecure.

3 An avalanche of returnees within a very short period could have serious consequences for the food security situation 140,000 people have returned to the South in 2 months, 400,000 are forecasted to come in total. Cereal Deficit would in that case reach tonnes

4 Potential conflict could add pressure on the food security situation

5 If the factors of pressure increases, up to 2.7 million people out of projected 9.16 Mio in South Sudan could need emergency food assistance ( Source FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SOUTHERN SUDAN 12/01/11) Even with a peaceful referendum, Food security interventions will remain key in %of the Population of South Sudan rely on agriculture for its livelihoods. Productivity is however low. South Sudan is dependant on food imported from Kenya, Uganda North traders leaving the South and closing shops reduce food availability and lead to increased prices Drought Floods In the best case scenario, At least 1.4 mil people will need food security assistance in 2011 Localised conflict in Borders area Ethnic inter tribal/ tensions Returnees in 2 months / expected in total: extreme pressure on an already fragile Food Security situation

6 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Central & Eastern Africa DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC SDG/kg SDG/Sack of 90 Kg January 2011 Referendum in Sudan contributed to disruption of trade and price increases in the south despite good harvest 3.0 Sorghum: Nominal retail prices in Juba (Konyokonyo) Sorghum Fatarita: Nominal retail prices in Khartoum AVG APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 2005/ / / /06 Region to be affected most by reduced trade flows from the north Source: FEWS NET

7 Lessons learned from the past : Longer term support to returnees reintegration is key Reintegration Return Arrival Settling livelihoods Long term livelihoods Recommendations Reintegration support should have a strong livelihood support beside the often too late Seeds and tools distribution Host population needs should also be considered to avoid conflict over scarce resources Cash transfer should be considered