Agriculture in a bioeconomy What-to & How-to? Claus Felby, University of Copenhagen

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1 Agriculture in a bioeconomy What-to & How-to? Claus Felby, University of Copenhagen

2 A bioeconomy is a circular economy Circular economy (CE): a regenerative system in which resource input, waste, emission, and energy leakage are optimised by slowing, closing, and narrowing material and energy loops

3 How to adapt to a CE? Fossil resources in a CE No emission of GHG (Carbon capture and storage required) No pollution Biological resources in a CE Ecosystems need to be renewable i.e. regenerated and maintain biodiversity Agriculture in a CE Reduction (elimination) of nitrogen and phosphorus load Reduction and offset of GHG emissions Minimize land use (biodiversity)

4 Agriculture in a CE: Challenges are large, but the solutions are there How to produce food and more biomass while reducing environmental load and minimizing land use? Transition to a CE requires new technologies and a new agricultural systems However, this does not provide a market with a willingness to pay for the CE-services of reduced GHG-emissions and reduced environmental load (sustainability) What are the policy changes needed to facilitate the changes in technology and agricultural practice?

5 Reducing nitrogen load. Combining perrenial and annual crops Local scale. Combined food and energy fields (CFE): KU experimental farm in Tåstrup By combining annual and prennial crops, we can control nutrients, mantain soil carbon and increase biodiversity.

6 Reducing phosporous load and GHG emissions -Biogas and feed development Main feedstock; manuer from pigs and cattle Phosphorous in manuer is concentrated and returned to the field. Methane emissions from manuer is strongly reduced Phosphorous are recovered from both liquid and solid fractions. New feed types provides higher phosphorous uptake 50-80% of the phosphorous in manuer can be recovered Food waste processing CO 2 removal Biomethane to the gas grid Example Midt Fyns biogas 400,000 tons manure and foodwaste/year

7 Decoupling protein production and land use Protein from fermentation processes (ethanol plants) Extraction of protein from perennial crops (grasses) Protein from algae combined with CO 2 capture

8 Bioeconomy: Ethanol plants (1G and 2G) provide fuels, feed and chemicals Biomass (agricultural residues) converted to sugars Products: Fuels (automotive, aviation and marine), chemicals, feed protein Main point; the bioeconomy needs an industrial sector producing the carbon-based products needed

9 Agriculture and land use: Expansion -Feeding 9 bilion people +Meat ++Meat ++Meat +++++Meat +++Meat ++++Meat +++++Meat 100% organic farming 3-year rotation

10 How efficient can we do agriculture? From: HJ Schnellnhuber. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions", March 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark

11 Enhedens navn Intensification: Can land use change be avoided by increased biomass ressources from the same area? For more than 10,000 years we have optimised our crops for food and feed

12 Danish example: Intensification under constraints Intensification of Danish agriculture and forestry Self sufficient biomass supply Could danish agriculture and forestry deliver 10 mill tons extra biomass by 2020 under the assumptions of: No reduction in food production No extra land use Reduced environmental impact Sustainable intensification is it a possibility or a pie in the sky? Existing agriculture and forestry Crops, trees and farming/forestry practice Already established established infrastructure Larsen et al Environmental Research Letters

13 Danish agriculture and forestry No idle land -60% of the area is farm land Current harvest ca. 18 mill t Mainly agriculture 80% is used for animal feed 17 mill tons surplus of manuer Surplus of straw Large import of wood

14 Three scenarios for 2020 Business as usual BAU No change in crops or technology Annual yield increment approx. 1% More collection and use of existing biomass/residues High use of manure Biomass optimized High straw yield cultivars Increased collection of straw and wood Less share of oil crops higher share of energy crops Fertilization of grass in wetlands areas Verges, weeds, secondary crops etc. High use of manure Environmentally optimized No removal of straw in low soil carbon areas Maximum use of secondary and energy crops No cereals in areas with high nitrate leaching Increased forestation High use of manure

15 + 10 mio tonnes is possible! Food producion is (almost) constant

16 Environment: Areas with low nitrate retention, change to perennial crops Perennial crops absorps the nirate Higher use of fertilizers in other areas What would farmers say to such a land use change?

17 Conclusions and perspectives Agricultural production in a CE requires changes and adaptation It is possible to mantain food production and boost biomass production in intensive modern agricilture sustainable intensification I have only presented scearios, but technology and and crops are available Environmental benefits, protein and biomass from perennial crops Economy we have no income on environmental services we have no expenses on environmental load Using land as the limiting factor and minimising land use while increasing biomass production and mantaining food production can keep the course. Biorefineries making biogas, ethanol and protein while separating nutrients and CO 2 are needed +10 mio tonnes study can be downloaded from

18 Thank you for your attention