Climate impacts. Main Impacts of Climate Change CO2 fertilization effect Heat stress Water availability sea-level rise. Climate impacts.

Transcription

1 By Sokuntheary Ath

2 Precipitation Human Activity Food Shortage Main Impacts of Climate Change CO2 fertilization effect Heat stress Water availability sea-level rise The Poor s Summary Projected Annual Average Surface Temperature Change: minus A panel from Fig 10.8 of IPCC 07

3 Slide 2 Notes First I would like to present to you the topic of climate impacts may have on food supply, and then the topic of precipitation how water availability affects crops, followed by Human Activity that influences that change in the climate and how all of that lead to food shortages that further affects the poor s. Main Impacts of : The four main impacts of the climate change are (1) CO2 fertilization effect (2) Heat stress (3) water availability (4) sea-level rise CO2 fertilization effect crops tend to grow more quickly in a warmer, CO2-heavy atmosphere and hence is predicted to increase the global crops as a whole. However these crops generate accumulate less biomass. Hence unless farmers plant the second crop (or switch to different crops) the result can be net drop in seasonal production. Heat stress According to the IPCC report 2007, the Projected Annual Average Surface Temperature Change: minus Shows that the annual average temperature in most places will be higher than anytime in the past million years, or more. In addition, since the IPCC s first report in 1990, assessed projections have suggested global average temperature increases between about.15 degree Celsius and.3 degree Celsius per decade for 1990 to 2005 which strengthening confidence in near-term projections. This will cause an increase in heat stress that will affect crops. Water availability As the temperature gets warmer, dry season will occurs. As there is less water to do farming, there will be a reduction in crops in those dry regions. I will talk more about this in my next slide. Sea-level rise The last but not least, main impacts of the climate change is sea-level rise. According to the IPCC report 2007, Anthropogenic warming and sea-level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. Sea-level rise is bad for farmers for mainly two reasons: the first reason is that lands available for use is reduced and second reason is that the rise in sea-level causes saltation of land that is bad for crops growing. Sources for Slide 2: Henson, Robert. Rough Guide to Climate Change. January Pg A panel from Fig 10.8 of IPCC 07 Heat Stress -- Global Warming Course Pack, pg 12 paragraph 3. Sea-level rise -- Global Warming Course Pack, pg 16 paragraph 3 red font. Lecture slides on date February 23rd, slide 24.

4 Precipitation Precipitation Human Activity Food Shortage Projected Annual Average Precipitation: minus Projected Soil Moisture Change: minus The Poor s Summary Wet places get wetter Dry places get drier Drier Fig of IPCC 2007 Panels from Fig of IPCC 2007 Wetter

5 Slide 3 Notes Precipitation: This map shows the Projected Annual Average Precipitation: minus The red indicates the dry region and the blue indicates the wet region. According to this map, the drier region gets drier and wetter region gets wetter. The same goes for the Projected Soil Moisture Change: minus The wet places get wetter and dry places get drier. This precipitation is important because it affects crop yields. In the region where there are low precipitations, drought are likely to occurs and that would impacts crop yields. For example: Livestock Lost (climate change and crop yields): The recent drought in Central Asia results in the following lost of crops in these countries. Read the country s name and percentage lost of livestocks. Read this: By the end of the century, similar water stress on agriculture will be the norm throughout the tropics and subtropics due to the climate changes associated with increasing CO2. Sources for Slide 3: The Projected Annual Average Precipitation: minus Fig of IPCC 2007 Projected Soil Moisture Change: minus Panels from Fig of IPCC 2007 Lecture slides on date January 28 th, slide 18.

6 Human Activity Precipitation Human Activity Virtually certain > 99% Food Shortage The Poor s Very likely >90% Summary IPCC 2007

7 Slide 4 Note Human Activity: Read (briefly of important point) of each scenario and its likelihood of happening. Incorporate Human activity to climate change and link climate change to the four main impacts presented on the second slide. Further connect important implications to impacts of climate change to global food security. According to the IPCC 2007 report, given its phenomenon and direction of trend and its likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21 st century using SRES scenarios, It is vitually certain that there are warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most areas. The temperature will be virtually certain (greater than 99% probability of happening) warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas. Warm spells/heat eaves. Frequency increases over most land areas is very likely. And heavy precipitation event. Frequency increases over most areas is very likely. As presented by each direction and trend in temperature, human activity contributes a lot to an increase in temperature and hence would impact the (mentioned the previous four main factors that are impacted by climate change) which further affect crops and food supply. Because most of the poors live in the areas where agricultures are affected by the climate change, they re most vulnerable to risk in malnutrition and hunger. Sources for slide 4: PICC Report 2007

8 Food Shortage Precipitation Human Activity Food Shortage The Poor s Summary Crops are affected Crops are affected Lower crops in stock Prices of food rise Malnutrition IPCC 2007 Report, Climate change No major change in food production by 2100 Major shift from low latitude to high latitude

9 Slide 5 Note Food Shortage: read the first three bullet points of what the Poor s eat and its percentages. Crops are affected: Due the change in climate, farmers find it hard to plant. As a result, less crops are planted which lead to lower crops in stock. When there is less supply for crops, prices for food rise. Because the poors depend cannot afford that increase in food prices, they substitute rice and wheat to alternative unhealthy consumptions. As a result, they face with malnutrition problem and hunger. IPCC 2007 Report, Climate Change: Read the first bullet point. Crops tend to grow more quickly in a warmer, CO2-heavy atmosphere and hence is predicted to increase the global crops as a whole. However these crops generate accumulate less biomass. Hence unless farmers plant the second crop (or switch to different crops) the result can be net drop in seasonal production. Then read the second bullet point. Low latitudes are the developing countries and the high latitude are the developed countries like the United States. This shift shows that there will be less food available in the developing countries and the poors will suffer in subsequent to this. Sources for slide 5: Lecture slides on date January 28 th, slide 3. Lecture slides on date February 23rd, slide 24. IPCC 2007 Report

10 The Poor s Precipitation Human Activity Food Shortage The Poor s Summary The food insecure Depends heavily on agriculture for both food and income Live in regions where agriculture will be most stressed by global warming Live in countries that have the greatest population growth 800 M people are malnourished today 95% are in the tropics/subtropics Lobell et al (2008)

11 Slide 5 Read facts (800 M people are malnourished today ) The food insecure: Depends heavily on agriculture for both food and income. The four main impacts of climate change I presented earlier, things like rise in sea-level and water shortages, would affect the insecure s crops. Because the insecure generates income from selling those crops and depend heavily on agriculture for food, as their crops reduced due Global warming, they re vulnerable to risks of hunger. (Estimates: M more people at risk of hunger by 2080 due to climate change) Read the second bullet point. The areas where agriculture are most affected by climate change is the areas where most of the poors live. Read the third bullet point. In addition, the poors live in the countries that have the greatest population growth. The areas where agriculture are most affected by climate change is the areas where population growth are likely to increase (about 50% growth). As the population grows, more will be demanded for food; however the climate change impacts agricultures that reduces crops and food of farmers. As a result, there is less supply of food than there is demand for it. The insecure is the one who bears this costs. Sources for slide 6: Lecture slides on date January 28 th, slide 2 & 41. Map Lobell et al (2008)

12 Summary Precipitation emerging-src/images/poor_detail2.jpg Human Activity Food Shortage The Poor s Summary Impacts of Global Warming on Global Food Security : Human Activity/Food Shortage The Poors

13 Slide 6 To summarize this all up: first the -- The main four impacts of the change in climate are (1) CO2 fertilization effect which is good for farming; However As the temperature gets warmer, dry season will occurs. As there is less water to do farming, there will be a reduction in crops in those dry regions. (2)Heat stress is bad because it kills crops and causes more drought (3)Water availability The climate impacts precipitation which reduces moisture that further affects farming and crops. (4) sea-level rise causes saltation in land and reduction in land available for usage for farmers. This would affects crops and food. The climate impacts global food security as there will be less land for usage and more saltation in land used, as well as causing more drought seasons that affects crops and hence less crops output globally. Human Activity/Food Shortage : Human Activity also plays an important role in affecting the global food security. As presented by each direction and trend in temperature, human activity contributes a lot to an increase in temperature and hence would impact the (mentioned the previous four main factors that are impacted by climate change) which further affect crops and food supply. Because most of the poors live in the areas where agricultures are affected by the climate change, they re most vulnerable to risk in malnutrition and hunger. The Poors : In addition, the poors live in the countries that have the greatest population growth. The areas where agriculture are most affected by climate change is the areas where population growth are likely to increase (about 50% growth). As the population grows, more will be demanded for food; however the climate change impacts agricultures that reduces crops and food of farmers. As a result, there is less supply of food than there is demand for it. The insecure is the one who bears this costs. Sources for slide 7: The old lady picture -- The Children picture --