Discussion on Biophysical Models for Biomass Crops

Transcription

1 Discussion on Biophysical Models for Biomass Crops Fernando E. Miguez Energy Biosciences Institute Crop Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Nov 14 th, 2008

2 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

3 Biophysical Modeling Issues

4 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

5 Research Questions Where will we grow bioenergy crops? Prime crop land vs. marginal land Socio-economic and environmental impacts How much biomass can we produce? Species (annual, perennial, woody) Management and sustainability Cost Models: Agro-IBIS, Biome-BGC, CASA, DayCent, ISAM/MISCANMOD, ALMANAC, BioCro/WIMOVAC.

6 Research Questions Where will we grow bioenergy crops? Prime crop land vs. marginal land Socio-economic and environmental impacts How much biomass can we produce? Species (annual, perennial, woody) Management and sustainability Cost Models: Agro-IBIS, Biome-BGC, CASA, DayCent, ISAM/MISCANMOD, ALMANAC, BioCro/WIMOVAC.

7 Research Questions Where will we grow bioenergy crops? Prime crop land vs. marginal land Socio-economic and environmental impacts How much biomass can we produce? Species (annual, perennial, woody) Management and sustainability Cost Models: Agro-IBIS, Biome-BGC, CASA, DayCent, ISAM/MISCANMOD, ALMANAC, BioCro/WIMOVAC.

8 Research Questions Where will we grow bioenergy crops? Prime crop land vs. marginal land Socio-economic and environmental impacts How much biomass can we produce? Species (annual, perennial, woody) Management and sustainability Cost Models: Agro-IBIS, Biome-BGC, CASA, DayCent, ISAM/MISCANMOD, ALMANAC, BioCro/WIMOVAC.

9 Research Questions Where will we grow bioenergy crops? Prime crop land vs. marginal land Socio-economic and environmental impacts How much biomass can we produce? Species (annual, perennial, woody) Management and sustainability Cost Models: Agro-IBIS, Biome-BGC, CASA, DayCent, ISAM/MISCANMOD, ALMANAC, BioCro/WIMOVAC.

10 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

11 Basics of Models Model where, y = M(x, θ) y = output M = structure x = input θ = parameters Data and Validation where, RSS(θ) = ɛ 2 ɛ = D y ɛ = residual error D = data

12 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

13 First Issue: Model structure (M) Simple vs. Complex: level of detail Use, apply and understand Input requirements Output Integration with other models

14 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

15 Second Issue: Inputs Weather inputs Soil inputs Need to be available at a time and spatial resolution consistent with the modeling question being addressed.

16 Average Total Annual Precipitation

17 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

18 Third Issue: Parameter Estimation Calibration Validation Sensitivity Analysis

19 Outline 1 Issues 2 Research Questions 3 Models 4 Model Structure 5 Inputs 6 Parameters 7 Data and Validation

20 Fourth Issue: Data and Validation Miscanthus Most of the available data from European experiments (Miguez et al. 2008). 5 to 6 years in the U.S. for spatial and temporally relevant data. Switchgrass Longer history of experimentation in the U.S. Recent farm level reports (Schmer at al. 2008) Improved cultivars and hybrids.

21 Fourth Issue: Data and Validation Miscanthus Most of the available data from European experiments (Miguez et al. 2008). 5 to 6 years in the U.S. for spatial and temporally relevant data. Switchgrass Longer history of experimentation in the U.S. Recent farm level reports (Schmer at al. 2008) Improved cultivars and hybrids.

22 Fourth Issue: Data and Validation Miscanthus Most of the available data from European experiments (Miguez et al. 2008). 5 to 6 years in the U.S. for spatial and temporally relevant data. Switchgrass Longer history of experimentation in the U.S. Recent farm level reports (Schmer at al. 2008) Improved cultivars and hybrids.

23 Fourth Issue: Data and Validation Miscanthus Most of the available data from European experiments (Miguez et al. 2008). 5 to 6 years in the U.S. for spatial and temporally relevant data. Switchgrass Longer history of experimentation in the U.S. Recent farm level reports (Schmer at al. 2008) Improved cultivars and hybrids.

24 Fourth Issue: Data and Validation Miscanthus Most of the available data from European experiments (Miguez et al. 2008). 5 to 6 years in the U.S. for spatial and temporally relevant data. Switchgrass Longer history of experimentation in the U.S. Recent farm level reports (Schmer at al. 2008) Improved cultivars and hybrids.

25 Questions?