Preserving Dairy Farm Economies and Environmental Quality: A Comparative Study of Tools From New York, Wisconsin, and Elsewhere

Transcription

1 Preserving Dairy Farm Economies and Environmental Quality: A Comparative Study of Tools From New York, Wisconsin, and Elsewhere John M. Norman Department of Soil Science September 23, 2003

2 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Purpose: To put the results of modern agricultural research on crop production and environmental contamination into the hands of consultants and farm managers to assist in daily decision-making? Developers: Christine Molling, Chris Kucharik, Charles Rodgers, Cristine Morgan, Mark Stelford, John Norman Contact Persons: Christine Molling, John Norman Stage of Development: Early stages of program development

3 Question? Maximizing production is a straight-forward and focused goal that agricultural research has successfully addressed. Characterizing the tradeoff between productivity and environmental degradation is more difficult,and the traditional strategy of field-trials that focus on a single variable (namely yield) will NOT work! Traditional statistical methods require lots of data that we do not now have and may never have. We must exploit cause-based relationships that are embodied in models, much like engineering does. Can we overcome traditional biases against the usefulness of modeling and form alliances among basic researchers, extension agents, consultants, industry and farmers to create products that will assist in the good management of farms? The time may be right with PRECISION FARMING!

4 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Purpose: To put the results of modern agricultural research on crop production and environmental contamination into the hands of consultants and farm managers to assist in daily decision-making? Developers: Christine Molling, Chris Kucharik, Charles Rodgers, Cristine Morgan, Mark Stelford, John Norman Contact Persons: Christine Molling, John Norman Stage of Development: Early stages of program development

5 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Focus: Crops (corn, soybean and alfalfa) and variability of soils over individual fields Scale: Primarily field scale up to 100 ha with spatial resolution of about 10 m. Primary Area of Concern: Environmental effects of nitrate leaching, runoff, erosion and phosphorus losses. Farm logistics related to planting, site specific management and optimal harvest timing

6 Landscape variability results in variable yield. But yield varies differently in different years! Observed corn yield 1999 Observed corn yield 2000 Bushels per acre Traditional crop and hydrologic models can t simulate variability on this scale. We need precision models to go along with our precision farming technology. CCMolling, 2002

7 Depth to till cm

8 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Focus: Crops (corn, soybean and alfalfa) and variability of soils over individual fields Scale: Primarily field scale up to 100 ha with spatial resolution of about 10 m. Primary Area of Concern: Environmental effects of nitrate leaching, runoff, erosion and phosphorus losses. Farm logistics related to planting, site specific management and optimal harvest timing

9 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Intended Users: Primary goal is crop consultants who work directly with farmers, but a secondary emphasis is directed toward researchers who could add to the functionality. Format: Fortran program with a Windows user interface that links program inputs and outputs to a GIS; currently ARCGIS. Documentation: User manual intended for the crop consultant who is computer literate. Currently documentation does not include equations and references, which are extensive. Publications are being submitted to document new parts of the model, but many aspects make use of equations and concepts from the literature.

10 PALMS Development and Dissemination Researchers Extension Industry Consultants Growers Software Company?

11 PALMS Provides Decision Support Tillage Strategy Profitability Marketing Decisions Return on Investment Time & Risk Management Improve Yield Equipment Sizing Reduce Environmental Impact Harvest Timing

12 Recommendation Tool for the Consultant Hybrid Selection Equipment Sizing Environmental Impact Variable rate application and seeding (N removal and carryover, yield capacity)

13 PALMS Graphical User Interface Java graphical user interface FORTRAN executable Java data browser Runs on ordinary PC CCMolling, 2002

14 Research Tool for the Scientist Explore Best Management Practice Scenarios Quantify Landscape Processes and Variability Associated With them SOILS Environmental Impact Instrument Placement Sustainability, Climate Change Scenarios

15 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Intended Users: Primary goal is crop consultants who work directly with farmers, but a secondary emphasis is directed toward researchers who could add to the functionality. Format: Fortran program with a Windows user interface that links program inputs and outputs to a GIS; currently ARCGIS. Documentation: User manual intended for the crop consultant who is computer literate. Currently documentation does not include equations and references, which are extensive. Publications are being submitted to document new parts of the model, but many aspects make use of equations and concepts from the literature.

16 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Geographic Area: PALMS is a process-level model designed to work in virtually any agricultural field. Merge & Share Data With Other Tools: Inputs and outputs are currently stand-alone files but a major effort is underway to use ARCGIS as data base. Sharing with tools compatible with ARCGIS should be possible; for example, SST software. Inputs:

17 PALMS Inputs Field Crop Planting Arl26 corn 5/5/02 Stone corn 5/11/02 Strunk soybeans 5/20/02 Koch wheat 11/2/01 Weather - on-site weather station or from web: easy; relatively cheap; currently available. Crops and Management - record keeping: easy; cheap. Topography - a few cm accuracy required, need differential GPS survey: more expensive; currently available. 3-D Soil Map - SIYM: easy; cheap; inferred. Penetrometer, conductivity, coring: more expensive; higher quality. Neither widely available at this time. CCMolling, 2002

18 GPS Topography Only 1.4m of relief in 100 m < 0.1 m precision

19 Quantifying Pedological Information: Field Measurements & Statistics Soil Coring and Measurements of Properties Electrical Conductivity Meters (EM38 & Veris) Penetrometers Remote Sensing

20 Quantifying Pedological Information: Multi-scale Spatial Model Zhu, Morgan, & Norman, 2003 Landscape Survey sensors, Remote sensing, Topography

21 Quantifying Pedological Information: Multi-scale Spatial Model Coring n= 15 Penetrometer n= 60 Topography n=240 Measurement errors: 4 cm 4 cm 12 cm cm Zhu, Morgan, & Norman, 2003

22 Quantifying Pedological Information: Multi-scale Spatial Model Three information sources combined: Depth-to to-tilltill cm Standard Deviation cm Zhu, Morgan, & Norman, 2003

23 Quantifying Pedological Information: Pedotransfer functions Texture K sat sat, Water retention function, Bulk density A Btg Bt 2C

24 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Production Outputs: Yield maps, trafficability, soil moisture distribution vertically and horizontally, Optimal harvest date, ice content, ground water levels, soil temperature, crop water use, ponding, plant stress effects, aeration... Environmental Outputs: Nitrate leaching, drainage, runoff and soon to have erosion and phosphorus loss in runoff. Economic outputs: None yet, but intend to include economic costs of various strategies to reduce environmental impact.

25 Waunakee Field (30 Ha) 1998 Yield (t/ha)

26 Trafficability: Spring May 17 May 22 May 27 Negligible Compaction ~10% Yield Loss Not Passable

27 Spring Soil Moisture 1999, Hill location 2000 Depression location Days since April 1st

28 Predicted Yield in 1999 and Bushels bushels/acre per Acre

29 Measured Yield in 1999 and 2000 Corn yield in 1999 Corn yield in 2000 Bushels per acre

30 Comparisons, 2000 Soil Moisture and Surface Water Hill stderr < 5% VWC runoff too high - need macropore infiltration ponding good match Depression Ponded water, 6/2/2002 CCMolling, 2002

31 Dry-Down of Grain Moisture to Determine Harvest Date Sept. 23, 1999 Oct. 1, 1999 Sept. 23, 2000 Oct. 1, 2000

32 Dry-Down of Grain Moisture to Determine Harvest Date

33 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Production Outputs: Yield maps, trafficability, soil moisture distribution vertically and horizontally, Optimal harvest date, ice content, ground water levels, soil temperature, crop water use, ponding, plant stress effects, aeration... Environmental Outputs: Nitrate leaching, drainage, runoff and soon to have erosion and phosphorus loss in runoff. Economic outputs: None yet, but intend to include economic costs of various strategies to reduce environmental impact.

34 Simulated vs. Measured Annual NO 3 -N Leaching Loss at Arlington, WI Nitrate-N leaching at 1.4 m (kg ha-1 yr-1) NTf CPf IBIS-fertilized NTnf CPnf IBIS-unfertilized

35 IBIS Simulated Monthly Total NO 3 -N Leaching Loss at Arlington Fertilized (180 kg N/ha) Unfertilized (0 kg N/ha) 30% N Reduction (126 kg N/ha) 30% Excess N (234 kg N/ha) Prairie 55 NO3-N Leaching (kg/ha/month) Jan-95 Jun-95 Nov-95 Apr-96 Sep-96 Feb-97 Jul-97 Nov-97 Apr-98 Sep-98 Feb-99 Jul-99 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00

36 PALMS Drainage since May 1, mm 78 mm May 17 May 22 May mm Numbers on contoured landscape are rainfall since May 1, 1999

37 Runoff Index for Arlington Field LOW HIGH

38 Ratio of Infiltration to Rainfall May 31, 2000 LOW HIGH

39 Cumulative Ratio of Infiltration to Rainfall April 1, 2000 July 9, 2000 LOW HIGH

40 4 Rainfall 2000 Runoff Events 2000 N-S Chisel Plow Arlington, Wisconsin Runoff Events 2000 Contour Ridge Till

41 4 Rainfall 2000 Runoff Events 2000 N-S Chisel Plow 1.5 Rainfall 1999 Runoff Events 1999 N-S Chisel Plow

42 3.0 Rainfall 1993 Runoff Events 1993 N-S Chisel Plow 0.5 Rainfall 1988 Runoff Events 1988 N-S Chisel Plow

43 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Production Outputs: Yield maps, trafficability, soil moisture distribution vertically and horizontally, Optimal harvest date, ice content, ground water levels, soil temperature, crop water use, ponding, plant stress effects, aeration... Environmental Outputs: Nitrate leaching, drainage, runoff and soon to have erosion and phosphorus loss in runoff. Economic outputs: None yet, but intend to include economic costs of various strategies to reduce environmental impact.

44 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Tool Limitations: Not yet available, Extensive inputs especially for the soil and topography, it s new. Why was the tool designed? To bring state-of-the-art research on both crop production and environmental protection within reach of the farmer through extension and consultants.

45 We believe that two key issues are central to understanding the production/environment tradeoff Spatial variability of soil properties Linked by surface Runoff in PALM Temporal variability of precipitation

46 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Track Record for Nutrients in the Environment: Only nitrate leaching and phosphorus runoff are currently being developed. Being an optimist, I think the results will be reliable. Validations of nitrate leaching, soil water distributions, yield, and some grain moisture content have been done with generally good results. The developers have been the only users to date. Meet Regulatory Requirements? It does not produce a nutrient management plan, but intended to assist with design and placement of buffers to reduce P losses from fields without costing farmers or state too much.

47 Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) Future: Currently we are conducting field measurements of runoff, erosion and phosphorus losses on four farm fields with Discovery Farms to test PALMS and assist the Wisconsin Buffer Initiative. In addition we are studying runoff, erosion and P losses from four fields at Arlington and working with UW-Platteville on an up-slope, in-field structure to reduce erosion and P losses from a field. This is an ambitious project to assist with the creation of science-based guidelines for the implementation of regulations to limit phosphorus losses from farm fields. PALMS is well suited to exploiting remote sensing and we would like to do more of this.

48 Blow-up of Site ER13 Evapotranspiration in W/m 2 by Remote Sensing Each pixel is 30m by 30m in size. July 2, 1997 ER13 30 m Eddy Flux Measurement Site