What is worst: bad planning or bad weather?

Transcription

1 What is worst: bad planning or bad weather? Presentation at the Third Nordic International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation: Adapting to Change: From Research to Decision-making By Carlo Aall, Kyrre Groven and Halvor Dannevig Western Norway Research Institute

2 Land-use planning and climate change Point of departure: Enhancement of land-use planning as a policy means for local adaptation to climate change Research on constraints experienced by local authorities in this respect has revealed rather simplistic factors: Limited resources, lack of relevant competence and lack of information In this paper we will pursue the points made by Measham et al (2011) that this limited focus has obscured a wider set of constraints which need to be acknowledged and addressed if adaptation is likely to advance through municipal planning Source: Measham et al, 2011

3 The AREALKLIM project This presentation 10 historical cases 6 contemporary cases Analyse natural hazard events Input to ongoing planning processes Scientific publications Policy guidance notes Teaching in landuse planning

4 Historical cases Number of cases 10 Location Socio-economic conditions Weather events Natural hazard events Western Norway Variation between densely populated large urban (e.g. Bergen) and sparsely populated rural (e.g. Stryn) areas Extreme precipitation, storm, rapid snowmelting Landslides, storm surge, slush avalanche, river flooding, rock fall Time of events Time of land-use plan to be adopted Damage Variation between old (1940s) to present (2000) Casualties, demolition of houses, demolition of roads, flooding of basements

5 Historical cases

6 Research questions for the historical analysis 1. What happened? Weather Natural hazard Damage Land-use planning 2. What to blame? Bad planning? Bad weather (that is; society can not always avoid damage from extreme weather related natural hazard events) Too bad weather (that is; more extreme weather than to be expected taking place under the current climate regime) 3. How to be better prepared? Suggested improvements in land-use planning institution

7 Analytical model Within current climate variability Good planning Bad planning Damage could probably not have been reduced Event Outside current climate variability Good planning Bad planning Damage could perhaps been reduced

8 What is bad planning?

9 RESULTS

10 The climate is already changing Current increase in precipitation in Norway is so far six times stronger than predicted by the IPCC climate models. Based on 60 monitoring stations across the country, it is estimated that Norway is already experiencing the number of days with extreme precipitation which IPCC climate models have predicted should occur in 2100 Source: Miles, 2014 Increase in annual events with five-day precipitation of 40 mm during the period (Dyrdal et al 2011)

11 What happened in our cases: The climate 3-4 out of the 10 cases may have experienced weather evens that are outside of the definition of «current climate variability»

12 Land-use planning institutions are changing A number of adjustments of the Planning Act during the last decades in order to increase the ability to prevent damage from natural hazards events by means of better land-use planning A decrease in the land-use planning capacity in many small and medium sized municipalities the last decade Increasing share of land-use planning is initiated by private developers and land-owners at the expense of local authorities Increased focus in the public debate the last decade on the challenges climate change represent for land-use planning

13 What happened in our cases : Land-use planning No The category of natural hazard in question not covered by at that time existing national laws Partly Yes Has natural hazard events been analysid in the planning process? As the construction been done on the basis of a zoning plan? Plans in accordance with Planning and Building Act at the time of adopting the plan? Tal naturskadecase (N=10)

14 Planning by the book Development interests Data National laws and regulations Guidance from national authorities Risk assessment Land-use plan External consultant National government control Construction

15 Observed planning - not by the book Development interests Data National laws and regulations Guidance from national authorities Risk assessment Land-use plan External consultant National government control Construction Damage

16 What to blame? 6-7 Within current climate variability Good planning Bad planning Damage could probably not have been reduced damage events 3-4 Outside current climate variability Good planning Bad planning Damage could perhaps been reduced 8-9

17 How to be better prepared? Adapt national laws and regulations Current national laws and regulations are not adopted to cope with old sins in landuse planning (to adapt current infrastructure and old land-use plans to climate change) Increase government capacity on local guidance and control Currently there are large regional variations on this matter Increase local planning capacity Small and medium sized local authorities are under-staffed and under-budgeted when it comes to assess natural hazard risks and conduct high-quality land-use planning Increase data quality Local authorities lack sufficient data to assess climate related natural hazard risks Change local political priorities Local politicians have to take more account of climate related natural hazard risks when approving land-use plans as well as climate change as a high-priority problem Increase knowledge Knowledge is lacking on how to assess and prevent new risks, in particular slush avalanches, landslides and flash floods linked up with climate change

18 Sufficient in the long run? These suggestions are developed within an «adaptationcontext» Too late for adaptation? There is growing debate on the need for transformational approaches to tackle the challenges facing development in the face of climate change. If current incremental approaches to preventing dangerous climate change and adapting to the change we are already locked into are insufficient, then more radical approaches may be required Bahadur and Tanner, 2012

19 Adaptation versus transformation Adaptation «The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities Transformation «The altering of fundamental attributes of a system (including value systems; regulatory, legislative, or bureaucratic regimes; financial institutions; and technological or biological systems) Source: IPCC, 2012

20 The adaptation window Adaptation Transformation 0 C Norway Present 2014

21 The transformation challenges of land-use planning in Norway The possibility of an even larger increase in extreme precipitation than what has so far been predicted in climate scenarios May lead to a large increase in risks of natural hazard events May lead to a large increase in uncertainties involved in land-use planning May in sum constitute severe problems in a country such as Norway with: A large variation in nature conditions A high share of the population living in rural areas A high share of the population living in steep areas A high volume of infrastructure-lines per capita (e.g. km roads/capita) è The need for transformational land-use planning in Norway in the face of climate change at least in the long run?

22 References Bahadur, A., and Tanner, T. (2012) Transformation: Theory and practice in climate change and development, Briefing note, The Learning Hub, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. Dyrrdal AV, Isaksen K, Hygen HO Past changes in frequency, intensity and spatial occurrence of meteorological triggering variables, relevant for natural hazards in Norway. met.no report 03/2011. Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Halvor Dannevig, Kyrre Groven, Carlo Aall, Ragnar Brevik (2013): Kva kan vi lære av historiske naturskadehendingar for betre tilpassing til klimaendringar? VF rapport 8/2013. Sogndal: Vestlandsforsking IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Measham, T.G., Preston, B.L., Smith, T.F., Brooke, C., Gorddard, R., Withycombe, G. Morrison, C. (2011): Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Volume 16, Issue 8, pp , DOI /s Miles, M. (2014): Klima geofare koblinger og fremtidige klimaendringer. Uni Research Climate, Bjerknessentret