Situational Analysis: Knowledge Synthesis

Transcription

1 Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Situational Analysis: Knowledge Synthesis Annual General Meeting 2011

2 Ecosystems, Services, Well-being and Poverty

3 ESPA challenge What values do ecosystem services hold and for whom? What drivers are degrading and/or preventing realisation of the values provided by ecosystem services, and how can we better manage prevailing trends? What are the most critical dynamics and processes that influence the provision of ecosystem services in the context of poverty alleviation? How can we safeguard ecosystem service values of particular importance to the poor? How can we manage ecosystem services sustainably, and realise more out of their values, for poverty alleviation and growth?

4 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

5 ESPA linkages and concepts

6 impacts and feedback Economic & Sociological Political Technological Mitigation 1 Climate change Land & sea Use change Pollution & additives Globalisation (invasives) feedbacks Impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems Mitigation 2 feedbacks Food production Freshwater & flood control Energy Disease control Wildlife conservation Climate regulation Wellbeing & enjoyment Adaptation

7 People (focus)

8 Vulnerability

9 Incentives

10 Scales

11 Knowledge Strategy and Research Framework (KSRF) Our research framework highlights the links between ecosystem services such as timber production or freshwater supplies and the wellbeing of the poor, and describes how these sit within wider social, political and environmental settings

12 Situational Analysis Summarise existing knowledge on the links between ecosystems, ecosystem services and poverty. Identify and describe direct and indirect drivers of change for ecosystems and poverty. Identify the challenges and research needs for ecosystem management to alleviate poverty. Develop a capacity development strategy for research providers and users based on knowledge gaps and skills needs identified.

13 Ecosystem Services and quality of life

14 Dynamic cross-scale change Other capital inputs People Ecosystem processes/ Intermediate services Final ecosystem services Good(s)* Economic Well-being value Health Shared social Primary production Water cycling Soil formation Nutrient cycling Decomposition Weathering Ecological interactions Evolutionary processes Unknown Crops, livestock, Trees, standing vegetation, peat Water supply Climate regulation Disease & pest regulation Detoxification & purification in air, soils & water Pollination Hazard regulation, Noise regulation Wild species diversity Environmental; settings Unknown services Food Fibre Energy Drinking water Natural medicine Recreation/Tourism Pollution/noise control Disease/pest control Equable climate Flood control Erosion control Aesthetic/Inspiration Spiritual/Religious Unknown +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- / / / / / / / / / / / / / (Bateman, Mace et al 2011) Supporting Regulating Millennium Assessment categories Provisioning Cultural

15 Situational Analysis: themes and priorities Regional analyses Amazonia (catchment), China, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (around/semi-arid) Thematic analyses Marine & Coastal (SEA/WIO), Rural-urban linkage (multi-region Desakota) Priority Areas from Situational Analysis Water: Impacts of climate variability/other changes on ecosystem services that underpin the water cycle and water security. Health: Ecosystem services, disease ecology and human well-being. Forests: Forests, land use change and ecosystem services. Biodiversity: Biodiversity & ecosystem services - a sustainable flow of goods and services to enhance human well-being. Coasts: Strengthening management of ecosystems to support sustained service delivery and cut poverty and vulnerability Political Economy: Sustainable management of ecosystem services for poverty reduction and sustainable growth.

16 Marine and Coastal SA Global, regional (WIO/SEA), five countries (KTMPV + island case study) COASTAL & MARINE ECOSYSTEMS Supporting Regulating Provisioning Cultural ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Potential to enhance flow of ES (c) Interaction and feedbacks (d) Benefits and value of ES to poor people Potential to enhance ES benefits to poor people (b) Poor-perspective valuation of ES (a)

17 Amazonia

18 Desakota

19 Marine and Coastal SA components (Marine/Coastal Situational Analysis, Brown et al 2008) Framework for Dynamics, Vulnerability and Trade-offs A - Status of ecosystem health and flows of ES B - Ability of poor (inc socioeconomic factors) to benefit from ES (access to resources, technology, markets, MPA etc) C- Pro-poor perspectives on contribution of ES to w/b, PA (different ecosystems, settings, states) D - Feedbacks (impact of people on ES, mechanisms) Cross-cutting issues E- Dependence and vulnerability (distribution, scales, factors) F- Dynamics and drivers of change (direct, indirect) G - Governing and ES-PA trade-offs H - Gaps and challenges (knowledge/capacity)

20 Status and Flows of Marine/Coastal ES (a) Contribution to well-being UNEP 2006 and Workshops, Focus Groups (SA, Brown et al 200)

21 - ecosystem status and flows (a) Interdependence of ES services and categorisations (e.g. rain from forest++) Ranking problem: consultation responses 1) provisioning 2) regulating and 3) supporting etc

22 e.g. coral reefs (a) Degradation: worldwide, but local data poverty Impact: but - ecological shifts, time lag, scales Link to poverty unclear (MPA, mangroves cases) Solutions: but limits to flows. Rising or falling exploitation may have known/unknown crossscale impacts requiring complex trade-offs (fish/tourism income, food, biodiversity, resilience)

23 Ability of poor to benefit from ES (b) Reported barriers (focus groups)

24 Pro-poor perspective on valuation (c) Focus group scores categorised (MA) by ES Beans allocated to ES sketches by FG in Kenya, Mozambique, Philippines, Rodrigues Island, Vietnam

25 - focus groups: priority on provisioning ES (c)

26 - ES substitutability for well-being (c) Final ES as a priority

27 Local focus groups basic indications A common set of questions and activities Ranking of most important ES and ecosystems Links to poverty Observations of changes Add voices and perceptions of coastal people Amplify and exemplify key issues: Women fish traders Tourism boat operators Small islands Urban slum dwellers

28 scale and proximity

29

30 Feedbacks (d) ES degradation/benefits: unequal (scale) Markets - e.g. swings and cushioning Perceptions of/motivation for change (policy selection problem e.g. CBNRM) Few examples of conservation and poverty alleviation (PES/MPAs benefits?) Structural issues, intervention trade-offs

31 - stressors & adaptive capacity (e) (Easterling et al 2007, Cinner et al 2009)

32 Global vulnerability (e) Cross-cutting issues

33 Governing trade-offs (f) Gaps in existing knowledge: MPA, tourism How to evaluate trade-offs (ten Brink and Brauer 2008) Balancing multiple values of coral reefs Resilience and adaptive management

34 What is reported? Evidence of ES-PA linkage? Poor have minimal impact on change in ES, but in some areas drive degradation through unsustainable practices Poor receive disproportionately small share of ES benefits Poor prioritise provisioning ES (food & cash + jobs*) vs *MA - but links to other services? Role of supporting/regulating/cultural services in poverty alleviation important but less clear, direct or perceived

35 Knowledge assessment and gaps (g) Limits, availability, dissemination pointers from global, regional, country, FG reports Gaps (Knowledge) Baseline and time series data Dynamics and linkages ES-P Valuation ES Explain and predict trends, relationships Quantify marine +coastal ES Quantify links and relationship ESpoverty Economic valuation of ES Interaction between multiple drivers Ecosystem structure, status and flows of ES ES and PA in rural/per-urban areas Pro-poor valuation of ES Ecosystem health and flows Data: coastal popn and poverty Vulnerability, resilience and AC Linkages beyond the coastal zone Reliance on ES by poor Trade-offs upstream and downstream ES use/users Vulnerability to change in m/coastal ES Migration and coastal envt Climate change impacts on poor Linkage of marine and terrestrial livelihood activities Resilience to envt shocks and disasters Governance and institutions Capacity (limits) Knowledge management Science, policy, mngt interface Ecological & socioeconomic impacts of MPA Tourism as route out of poverty Co-management in varied ecological and cultural settings Managing ecosystems for multiple ES

36 Challenges (h) Data gaps, inc provisioning services (ES-PA link unclear) Knowledge gaps (flows, stocks, change, causality, response) Social, economic, ecological change occurring at different rates, scales and levels of predictability Complexity with shifting dependences and vulnerability - multiple stressors, impacts, and variables of AC Metrics: livelihoods riskier, rising vulnerability? (HDI ) Case studies some useful, but limited relevance No clear examples/policy guides (PRS, MPA, PES, CBNRM) Governance issues (linkages, interests, accountability)

37 SA issues Divergence in framing of questions Conceptual framework variance (absence) Heavy reliance on secondary data Themes split over reports e.g. African food, Asian water, Amazonian climate change Method & scale variability (FG, mapping, data) with less focus on global processes Output comparability limited

38 Multiple ecosystem services Multifaceted Shifting Ecosystem services but also disservices Moving beyond disciplinary boundaries Resilience, but in a transformational era New approaches beyond rebadging

39 Multiple ES interaction and impact Bennett et al 2009

40 ES mapping Balnavera (2010) Mapping of ecosystem services priorities to locate suppliers, consumers, and threats relevant to each service limited but could illuminate: levels and types of services supplied by alternative land management regimes; degree of spatial congruence in the supply of different services; and forecasted changes both in services and in the societal need for them, under alternative future scenarios of demographic, land use, and climatic change Limits to mapping

41 Mapping reef habitats and ES Mumby et al (2008) Conservation Biology: 22

42 MES challenge Raudsepp-Hearne et al (2010) BioScience: 60 (8) Research needs How do ecosystem services produce multiple aspects of human well-being, What ecosystem service synergies and tradeoffs are there When and how can technology enhance ecosystem services Forecasting of the provision of and demand for ecosystem services.

43 Biodiversity and ecosystems Limited coverage in ESPA context Broader perspectives needed Biotic and abiotic (definitions and focus) Species diversity and diversity of interactions (species and functional resilience, phylogeny)

44 and definitions Mace et al (2011) Trends in Ecology and Evolution

45 temporal lags 1. Recovery from lake acidification 2. Krakatoa eruption Left - Brezonik et al. (1993) Right -Schindler et al. (1985)

46 thresholds ES v land conserved (water) From Kremen 2005, Ecol Letters

47 Adapted from Fischer et al 2008

48 Biodiversity challenge Mace et al (2011) TREE Sensitivity of ES to type degree of variability at different levels of biological organisation What processes generate or erode this How does this variability affect the resilience of ES to environmental change? Consequences of focusing on stocks (natural capital) as well as flows in spatial assessments? Biodiversity and multiple ES in poverty context

49 3D trade-offs Difficult Development Dilemma Multiple ES but also: Multiple users (e.g. wealth & gender, spatial & temporal) Multiple values of goods and services Multiple goals & timeframes: e.g. immediate incomes vs: long-term ecosystem health Multiple policy objectives: economic development, sociocultural priorities (beliefs and values), environmental health and biodiversity

50 Biodiversity, food win and lose (trade-offs) Population density and food energy yield for trees and birds in Ghana and India Phalan, B. et al (2011) Science:333

51 Trade offs?: winners and losers and of species (of varying global range) for which for which sharing or sparing or an intermediate strategy gives the highest total population in relation to food energy/yield production target. MOST LOSERS AT MOST PRODUCTIONS LEVELS HAVE HIGHER POPULATIONS UNDER LAND SPARING

52 ES (co)-management (e.g. CBNRM) Gutierrez, N., Hilborn, R. et al (2011) Nature: 470

53 and co-management performance

54 Local-global policy implications Rudel, T.K Ecology and Society 16:2

55 Global processes Cross-scale social-ecological systems management Carpenter S R et al. (2009) PNAS

56 - cross-scale fisheries linkages GHGs Climate change Temperature Biophys. effects Extreme events SL rise Acidification Direct effects Politics, society and economy Markets Migration Socioeconomic effects Labour Consumption patterns Mitigation measures Fuel prices Fisheries SES Ecosystems Ecosystem processes Aquatic Environment Fish stocks & production Ecological effects Fishing activities Yield Effort Livelihoods Management Ecological impacts (covered in paper 1) Change in yield Change in species distribution Increased variability of catches Direct impacts Damaged infrastructure Damaged gears Increased danger at sea Loss/gain of navigation routes Socioeconomic impacts Influx of migrant fishers Increasing fuel costs Reduced health due to disease Relative profitability of other sectors Resources available for management Reduced security Funds for adaptation

57 Plausible Future Scenarios How might ecosystems and their services change under plausible scenarios? What would be the effect of such changes? National security World markets Local stewardship Go with the Flow Nature at work Green and pleasant land

58 Planetary boundaries Rockstrom, J. et al (2009) Ecology and Society 14:2

59 how do we do it and where are the links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation? Noorgard et al 2010 Ecological Economics: 69

60 Challenges (h) Data gaps, inc provisioning services (ES-PA link unclear) Knowledge gaps (flows, stocks, change, causality, response) Social, economic, ecological change occurring at different rates, scales and levels of predictability Complexity with shifting dependences and vulnerability - multiple stressors, impacts, and variables of AC Metrics: livelihoods riskier, rising vulnerability? Few models, examples/policy guides (PRS, MPA, PES, CBNRM) Governance issues (linkages, interests, accountability)

61 Comprehensive approach Knowledge Strategy and Research Framework (KSRF)