FEDERAL INSTITUTE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT. Example: Global milk trade. Food authenticity and food safety: Facing new challenges in a globalized world

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1 FEDERAL INSTITUTE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT Food authenticity and food safety: Facing new challenges in a globalized world Dîner le (O/N) Example: Global milk trade Andreas Hensel

2 Challenges of globalization Continuing global population growth: 7.3 billion (2015) to an expected 10.9 billion (2100) Changes in dietary behavior due to increase of purchasing power (e.g. China, India) Competition on agricultural market: Production of food renewable bioresources/energy crops Development of supply and demand on a global level encourages trade of foods which are less safe and/or have lower quality Not possible anymore to systematically control internationally traded knowledge-based services and goods Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 2

3 Blaise Pascal s Wager Basic concept of the decision theory You believe in god, and god exists you will go to heaven. You believe in god, but god does not exist you will not be punished. You do not believe in god, and god does not exist you will also not be punished. You do not believe in god, but god does exist you will get punishment. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 3

4 Pascal s Wager in context of risk assessment You expect a risk and it exists you will be rewarded (due to correct assessment) You expect a risk but it does not exist you will neither be rewarded nor do you lose anything. You do not expect a risk and it does not exist again, you will neither be rewarded nor lose anything. You do not expect a risk but it does exist in this case you will lose.. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 4

5 Bild: afrikareisen.info What is risk? Hazard means the potential of a substance or situation to cause an adverse health effect. Risk means the likelihood of an adverse effect in an organism, system or a (sub) population upon exposure to hazardous substances Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 5

6 Definition: Traceability Codex Alimentarius: Traceability / product tracing: the ability to follow the movement of a food through specified stages of production, processing and distribution. Regulation (EC) No 178/ p 15 Traceability systems trace and track food packaging Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 6

7 The overall world milk production is increasing The largest milk producing countries EU 159 India 142 USA 93 Pakistan China Brasil Russia New Zealand Turkey Million t. Mexiko 12 Ukraine ZMB Australia 10 Source: ZMB- Estimates, National Statistics, IDF, FAO. Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 7

8 China: Above average growth of global import market share Major importers of milk products (in Mio. t MEQ) China Russia USA Mexiko Algeria Japan S.-Arabia Indonesia Venezuela Egypt EU Philippines Singapur 1,7 1,3 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,3 2,5 3,0 3,0 3,0 5, ,6 China s market share increased from 4% in 2008 to 16% in 2014 Vietnam Australia 0,9 Source: ZMB, calculations based on external trade statistics ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 8

9 Example: Global trade of whole milk powder (WMP) Largest importers of WMP in ,000 t % NZ % USA % EU China Algeria Venezuela In Asia, Africa and South America whole milk powder is in demand Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China 9

10 After Russia s ban of EU imports: EU dairy exports were quickly redistributed in DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2013 Russia 14% Export value: 10.2 billion EUR Libyia Libanon Australia Egypt South Korea Oman others 35% Hong Kong United Arab Emirates Japan Nigeria USA 8% China 7% Export value: 9.4 billion EUR Algeria 4% Switzerland 4% Saudi-Arabia Indonesia Malaysia Oman Libanon Libyia South Korea Egypt DISTRIBUTION OF EU EXPORTS 2014 others 35% Hong Kong Indonesia USA 8% United Arab Emirates Algeria 8% China 8% Japan Russia 7% Saudi Arabia 4% Switzerland 4% Nigeria Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 10

11 EU-Exports are overall stable, with a slight downwards trend for cheese EU: Exports of dairy products (in 1,000 t, January until July) Butter* cheese WMP SMP Condenced milk *Includes butter oil. Source: EU-Commission, Eurostat Whey powder Drinking milk and cream ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 11

12 2015: For the first time China was second for EU imports of dairy products Distribution of EU exports in first half-year of 2015 Export value: Export 4.6 value: billion 4.6 EUR billion EUR USA 10% China 9% others 36% Saudi-Arabia 6% Thailand Libanon Oman Australia Nigeria Libyia Indonesia South Korea Hong Kong UAE Algeria 5% Switzerland 4% Japan 4% Egypt 4% ZMB Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 12

13 Global food chains - a challenge for risk assessors Consumers purchase behaviour is changing significantly due to free market economy Dissolution from local production and supply Highly competitive environment => Low price foodstuff Differences with regards to regulations: import regulations, border controls, statutory requirements Do we have the right information, methods and tools for effective quality management and risk assessment? Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 13

14 REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 General principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety Article 8 Protection of consumers' interests Food law shall aim at the protection of the interests of consumers and shall provide a basis for consumers to make informed choices in relation to the foods they consume. It shall aim at the prevention of: (a) fraudulent or deceptive practices (b) the adulteration of food (c) any other practices which may mislead the consumer Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 14

15 Food fraud Probability of malpractice and white-collar crime increases with misdirected economic incentives Probability decreases with protective factors (bonds of moral norms) Food fraud highly profitable but causes only minimal damage to individual consumer or damage occurs with large time delays Risk-based controls fall too short to combat behavioural risk sources N. Hirschauer, S. Scheerer, S. Zwoll; J Consumer Protection Food Safety; 2007; 2: Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 15

16 The sophistication of food fraud : Swill milk scandal (New York, USA) Uncontrolled animal feed Adulteration of milk with water, flour, chalk, molasses, starch and other substances Use of sick cows for milk production Wrongful declaration More than 8,000 consumers died 2008: Melamine scandal (China) Source: Obladen 2014, Ann Nutr Metab Adulteration of milk, infant formula and other foods with melamine to increase apparent protein content 290,000 children were treated for renal complications, 6 children died. Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 16

17 Melamine countries with contaminated goods Global production of Melamine 2007: 1.2 Mio. t Source: Hilts and Pelltier, 2009, WHO Rapid Alert System INFOSAN - The International Food Safety Authorities Network Established in 2004 under umbrella of the WHO Global network of national authorities of 181 Member States Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 17

18 Example: Melamine scandal day 1 day 14 day 14 First announcement of melaminecontaminated food in Europe First results from regional laboratory Information of federal ministry and first press conference by regional authority Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 18

19 Example: Melamine scandal day 14, 19:39 day 15, 08:00 day 16, 11:00 day 16, 13:00 day 16, 17:00 day 16 day 17 Request of federal ministry for risk assessment Start of risk assessment (eight scientists involved, Including toxicologists, epidemiologists, chemists, public relation) Discussion of analysis results and aspects of risk assessment with international partner (NL) Transfer of preliminary risk assessment to federal ministry Press conference and announcement of management decision Press release from BfR Start of removal of concerned products and enhancement of control and monitoring activities (management activities) Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 19

20 Fingerprinting Non-targeted analysis Example: Determination of melamine Investigation of different milk powders (bought in 2008) Analysis using 1 H-NMR (400 MHz) Identification of melamine via exogenous signal at 5.93 ppm (NH 2 groups) Milk powder contaminated with melamine Percentile plot of reference samples lactoce TMU DMSO CH 3 /CH 2 fatty acids lactose HO1-a lactose HO1-b urea TMS ppm Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 20

21 Authenticity testing Authentication: confirmation of all requirements regarding the legal product description or the detection of the fraudulent statements in view of: (i) substitution by cheaper but similar ingredients (ii) extension of food using adulterant (e. g. water, starch including exogenous material) or blending or undeclared processes (e. g. irradiation, extraction) (iii) origin, e. g. geographic, species or method of production Esslinger, S., Riedl, J., Fauhl-Hassek, C., Food Research International, 60, (2014) Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 21

22 Authenticity of food Authenticity Geographical Origin Identity (Composition) Labelling Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 22

23 International trade relations WTO: since Members: 161 Countries with 90 % of global economic power Duties: Reduction of trade barriers and dispute settlements. New round of WTO trade negotiations was launched in Doha in November 2001 comprising both further trade liberalisation and new rule making Bi- and multinational trade agreements are increasing Increase of Veterinary Certificates awarded by import countries and increase of countries assigned to authorized-for-import lists (e.g. by Russia, Brasil, China) Increase of non-tariff trade barriers Prof. Dr. Dr. Hensel / Nov 6, 2015 / Joint German-French Workshop on Dairy Food Safety Systems / Beijing, China page 23

24 FEDERAL INSTITUTE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT Thank you for your attention Andreas Hensel Federal Institute for Risk Assessment Max-Dohrn-Str Berlin Tel Fax bfr@bfr.bund.de