A Doubly Green Revolution for the 21st Century

Transcription

1 A Doubly Green Revolution for the 21st Century World Agriculture and Green Growth, FARM : Foundation for world agriculture and rural life, Paris, 7th December 2010 Gordon Conway, Imperial College

2 The Green Revolution The Problem: How to get wheat and rice to produce high yields by taking up nitrogen without falling over.

3 The Green Revolution Dr Norman Borlaug Brilliant US, Mexican and Asian scientists Skilled at observation & diagnosis Knowledgeable about the literature Identified short straw genes as solution Developed shuttle breeding to speed up breeding and create day-length insensitive varieties

4 The Green Revolution was one of the most successful technologies of the 21st century Growth in average wheat yields during the Green Revolution India Pakistan Real cereal prices (1990 US$)

5 The Limitations Focused on ideal environments Over-reliance on synthetic pesticides and fertilisers Not all the poor benefited Passed Africa by

6 Today About 1 billion people, or 1 in 6 of the world s population, are hungry, and we have to increase food production by % by 2050

7 The Drivers of the Chronic Hunger Crisis Rising populations Rising per capita incomes Growing demand for livestock products Rising fuel and fertiliser prices Growing demand for biofuels Increasing water and land scarcity Impact of climate change Slowing of productivity increases

8 The Challenges Ahead

9 Development of human population (billion) vs. Global cropland (mha) We are running out of land Increase ( % ) %

10 Doubly Green Revolution The aim repeat the success of the Green Revolution on a global scale in many diverse localities and be equitable sustainable and environmentally friendly

11 Minimising the Trade-offs Productivity L Resilience L H L Stability L Equitability Sustainable Agriculture

12 If food prices are high why can t Developing Country farmers respond? Lack of inputs High costs of fertilisers Inappropriate technologies Poor land tenure Lack of water Poor extension Variable and unreliable markets Poor infrastructure etc But the mix varies from place to place We urgently need new diagnostics, country by country, state by state

13 Barriers and Opportunities Diagnostics

14 The twin axes of agricultural development Enabling environment PLACE e VALUE CHAIN Diagnostics & Interventio ns

15 The Long Value Chain Molecule (plant) Molecule (human) Genomic Molecule Trait Production Trait Farm gate Market Farm Fork Metabolic Mouth Molecule

16 Appropriate Interventions Technical Financial Information Regulatory Institutional Research or Training Policy

17 How do we judge an intervention is appropriate? Does it work; is it productive? Does it add significant value? Is it stable and resilient? Is it equitable? Are there downsides? What is the counterfactual?

18 A Javanese Home Garden

19 Conventional Technologies but more precise

20 Controlling Striga 2.4 m ha $380m loss Maize resistant to Imazapyr Coat seed, herbicide kills Striga BASF, Weismann. CIMMYT, IITA, NARS, NGOs

21 Intermediate Technologies

22 Treadle pump and drip irrigation

23 Rasike Farm, Chililila WG. MBILI maizesoyabean intercrop providing 1215 kg maize and 545 kg soyabean per ha when conventional intercrops failed. These results indicate that MBILI is a means toward greater food security. Wamalwa Farm, Siritanyi FFS, Kanduyi. Maize-groundnut intercrop providing 5330 kg maize and 1203 kg groundnut per ha. These results indicate that MBILI can produce significant food surpluses.

24 New Platform Technologies Biotechnologies Nanotechnologies Information and Communication Technologies

25 Building Sustainability into the Seed or the Animal Increasing nutrient uptake efficiency Improving nutritive value Countering the new pest and disease outbreaks Increasing drought tolerance Increasing water use efficiency

26 The Long Value Chain Molecule (plant) Molecule (human) Genomic Molecule Trait Production Trait Farm gate Market Farm Fork Metabolic Mouth Molecule

27 Crop Biodiversity International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Benefit Sharing Fund

28 The New Rices for Africa Monty Jones 2004

29

30 Brachiaria Plus Arachis African and Australian grasses 70 million ha in tropical America Ideal forage, But: Prone to degradation Some cultivars prone attacks by spittle bugs Some cultivars poor tolerance to acid soils

31 Recombinant DNA or GM Crops

32 Uganda

33 Diamond Back Moth Source: CIMBAA

34 Golden Rice

35 Other Appropriate Interventions

36 Input Markets Agrodealers

37 Output Markets Cereal Bank in Western Kenya

38 Loess Plateau China

39 All this progress is threatened by Climate Change Higher temperatures Greater & more intense rainfall Greater droughts River bank erosion Rising sea levels More intense cyclones Salt water incursions

40 Agriculture as a Mitigator

41 Win-win Solutions Conservation Farming in Zimbabwe Ploughed 3 years minimum

42 2-4 tonnes C /ha

43 Temperature and rainfall projections, 1980 to 1999 versus 2080 to 2099 Values for scenario A1B, averaged over 21 AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (IPCC 4 WG I Ch 11)

44 Combating the Stress of Increasing Drought Drought tolerant varieties and breeds Drought tolerant cropping and farming systems Small-scale sustainable water supplies

45 In many places droughts and floods will occur with greater frequency and intensity

46 Goddard GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km _Anom07_2010_2010_1951_1980 Russia and Pakistan, 2010 Logistics cluster, Islamabad

47 Rice in a Flood Hattori et l 2009 Nature 460,

48 How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?

49

50

51

52 Please Google Montpellier Panel Report it is on Imperial College website