Utilizing Secondary Crops (CGPRT

Transcription

1 RMAP Seminar in ANU, Canberra Utilizing Secondary Crops (CGPRT Crops) for Poverty Alleviation under Globalization: Alternative Development in Asian Agriculture Hitoshi YONEKURA Graduate School of Agricultural Science Tohoku University 1

2 Contents [1] Introduction of CGPRT Crops (Secondary Crops or Upland Crops) 1.Plants, 2. Uses, 3.Importance of CGPRT Crops [2] Circumstances of CGPRT Crops 1. Reduced bio-diversity 2. Global warming: water resource problem 3. Impact of global warming on crops [3] Problems Confronted 1. Lost of Many Traditions 2. Risk of Conventional Resource Management [4] CGPRT Crops in Indonesia 1. Vulnerability Caused by Climate Change 2. Prospective Trends of CGPRT Crops 3. Capability of Farmers 4. Significance of CGPRT Crops [5] Action for Poverty Alleviation 1.Strategic Aims of Utilizing CGPRT Crops 2. International Platform for the Policy Coordination [6] Summary and Policy Implication 2

3 [1] Introduction of CGPRT Crops (Secondary Crops, Upland Crops) 1. Plants (1) Coarse grains 3

4 (2) Pulses (3) Root crops (4) Tuber crops 4

5 2. Uses of CGPRT Crops (1) (2) 5

6 (3) (4) 6

7 (5) (6) 7

8 3. Importance of CGPRT Crops 1. Braking on the reduction of bio-diversity on farm level Green Revolution prioritized the production of rice, wheat, and maize in Asia and overlooked CGPRT crops. Revitalizing CGPRT crops farming can recover the reduced bio-diversity particularly after Green Revolution. 2. Saving water by upland crops In many areas, e.g., maize, cassava, millet are still staple food and share important role in food security. Under the vulnerable weather condition, particularly water shortage, diversified food crops can reduce the cost of irrigation and the risk of food shortage. 3. Food crops of the poor in marginal areas CGPRT Crops have become important not only in food security but also in increasing income of the poor by large scale industrial use. 8

9 [2] Circumstances of CGPRT Crops 1. Bio-diversity has been reduced by development i. In human history, thousands plant species have been regularly used for food, fibers, industrial, cultural and medicinal purposes. ii. At least 7,000 cultivated species are in use today around the world. 9

10 iii. Over the last 500 years, with the development of a global trading system and population increase, 30 or so crop species have become intensively and widely used and are now the basis of the world's agriculture. These 30 commodity crops have been the focus of attention of markets and scientific research world-wide. 10

11 iv. Over the last 250 years, the focus on a few widely used species has helped to sustain the explosion in human population but it has narrowed down dramatically the number of species upon which global food security and economic agricultural pursues depends. The remaining agro-biodiversity has been quite different, but largely ignored by commerce and science. 11

12 v. Over 50% of humanity s caloric and protein needs is supplied by only three crops, maize, wheat, and rice, Humankind faces a highly vulnerable situation and an urgent action to promote crop diversification is needed. Source: GFAR (GLOBAL FORUM ON AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH), The role of underutilized plant species in the 21st Century,

13 2. Global Warming: Water Resource Problem Projection by IPCC Observed warming over several decades has been linked to changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle such as: (1) increasing atmospheric water vapor content; 1) Changing precipitation patterns, intensity and extremes; 2) Reduced snow cover and widespread melting of ice; and 3) Changes in soil moisture and runoff. 13

14 (2) Precipitation changes show substantial spatial and inter-decadal variability. Over the 20th century, precipitation has mostly 1) increased over land in high northern latitudes, while 2) decreases have dominated from 10 S to 30 N since the 1970s. 14

15 (3) The frequency of heavy precipitation events (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas. 1) Globally, the area of land classified as very dry has more than doubled since the 1970s. 2) There have been significant decreases in water storage in mountain glaciers and Northern Hemisphere snow cover. 3) Shifts in the amplitude and timing of runoff in glacier- and snowmelt-fed rivers, and in icerelated phenomena in rivers and lakes, have been observed. IPCC, Climate Change: Technical Paper IV,

16 3. Impact of Global Warming on Crops Elasticity of yields for climate variables: Rainfall and Temperature Furuya, J. and O. Koyama, JARQ 39(2),

17 (1) Impact of Rainfall : 10% Increase on Yield Rate in Major Countries Wheat EU -1.2%, Canada -3.4%, Egypt -0.2%, Pakistan -0.4% Rice USA -0.03%, Japan -2.3%, Brazil +1.4%, India +0.37% Maize USA +1.9%, EU +1.4%, Ex USSR +0.76%, Argentina +2.5%, Thailand -0.38%, China +1.7% Soybean USA +2.2%, Eastern Europe +0.11%, Japan -3.4% Other Coarse Grains USA +0.29%, Canada +1.9%, EU -0.17%, Japan -0.95%, Australia +4.2%, Ex USSR +5.1%, Argentina +1.4%, India +1.0% 17

18 (2) Impact of Temperature : 10% Increase on Yield Rate in Major Countries Wheat EU -10%, Canada -0.96%, Egypt -3.5%, Pakistan -4.8% Rice USA -11%, Japan +10%, Brazil -5%, India -20% Maize USA -12%, EU -1.4%, Ex USSR -7.6%, Argentina -12%, Thailand -24%, China -9.1% Soybean USA -7.9%, Eastern Europe -8.5%, Japan -1.9% Other Coarse Grains USA -15%, Canada -4.9%, EU -7.7%, Japan -3.5%, Australia -1.1%, Ex USSR -15.9%, Argentina -14%, India -34% 18

19 (3) World Growth Rate of Production: Comparison between 2005 and increase/20years (0.0 1 /year) Furuya, J. and O. Koyama, JARQ 39(2),

20 [3] Problems Confronted 1. Lost of Many Traditions Related to the Overlooked Crops CGPRT Crops have been important in food security particularly for the poor in upland areas and in maintaining biodiversity, however many traditions have tend to be lost: Farming system: reduced variation variety of seeds, knowledge on proper soil and climate, farming technologies, cropping patterns Processing Technique, Knowledge of Usage, and Cooking Culture Agrarian Institutions to maintain the knowledge and techniques mentioned above 20

21 2. Risk of Conventional Resource Management in Developing Agriculture under Economic Development Resource exploitation in critical/ marginal area due to population pressure Developments could accelerate excess use of resources Weakening Food Security Destruction of traditional institutions for social safety net Increasing the vulnerability of the poor Social-political unrest Human insecurity of vulnerable people 21

22 A poor region in rural Java Cassava and agro-forestry High risk of degradation of soil and erosion Horticulture in a steep slope 22

23 Rural Industry and Agriculture Brick making from topsoil Fortunately land is still usable after removing topsoil 23

24 Child Labor for Heavy Job A family carries fuel wood for selling: in Nepal 24

25 [4] CGPRT Crops in Indonesia Share of Area Harvested of Rice and Secondary Crops 100% The share of Non-Rice (CGPRT Crops) in the Area Harvested is less than 40%, tends to be reduced. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SECONDARY CROPS RICE

26 1. Vulnerability Caused by Climate Change Decrease in production, area harvested and yield of El Nino years compared to NON El Nino years. Crops Production change (%) Area harvested Change (%) Yield rate change (%) Rice Corn Soybean Cassava Groundnuts Sweet Potato Potato Source: FAOSTAT and United Nations ESCAP-UNCAPSA 26

27 Harvesting Area and Production under Farming System in Java November March April July August October First rainy season First dry season Second dry season RI RI/CGPRT CGPRT RI/CO RI/(CO/CA) SO/CO CO/(PE/PO) PE/PO SW/(CA/PO) CO/CA/SW Climate change Price change In El Nino: RI/CO/SO SW/CA No Crop 27

28 2. Prospective Trends of the CGPRT Crops: Diversification of Demand for Crops Feed and Food Industries are being developed and become lucrative in many Asian countries. Feed Industry for poultry, Ketchup Industry Maize and soybean are major input material. Glutamine acid, bio-degradable plastic, Cassava is major crop Bio-fuel increases the demand for Cassava, sweet potato, sugarcane, jatropha, and oil palm. Large scale industrial use 28

29 3. Capability of Farmers Long run estimates of the area harvested in price response of each crop Price Rice Corn Area Harvested Soybean Cassava Groundnuts Sweet Potato Potato Ric e Corn Soybea n Cassav a + - Groundnu ts Sweet Potato Potat o 29

30 Price Response of Farmers RICE CORN SOYBEAN CASSAVA SBC ARDL SBC ARDL SBC ARDL SBC ARDL Regressor Coefficient Regressor Coefficient Regressor Coefficient Regressor Coefficient LRIRP 0.213*** LRIRP 0.413* LRIRP 1.576*** LRIRP LCORP *** LCORP LCORP *** LCORP *** LCARP *** LCARP 0.216*** LCARP 0.690*** LCARP 0.065* LPERP 0.022*** LPERP ** LPERP 1.37 LPERP LSWRP *** LSWRP LSWRP LSWRP LPORP LPORP LPORP LPORP D(El Nino) *** D(El Nino) ** D(El Nino) D(El Nino) R R R R DW 1.34 DW 2.13 DW 2.66 DW

31 GROUNDNUTS SWEET POTATO POTATO SBC ARDL SBC ARDL SBC ARDL Regressor Coefficient Regressor Coefficient Regressor Coefficient LRIRP LRIRP LRIRP LCORP * LCORP LCORP * LCARP LCARP * LCARP LPERP LPERP LPERP LSWRP LSWRP LSWRP LPORP * LPORP ** LPORP D(El Nino) * D(El Nino) *** D(El Nino) *** R R R DW 1.54 DW 2.11 DW 1.77 Source: UNCAPSA, FAOSTAT and Central Statistic Bureau (CBS), Indonesia ***Significant at the 1 percent level; *significant at the 10 percent level. 31

32 4. Significance of CGPRT Crops Population pressure: more than 1000 people/km 2 in Java world population growth 1.28%/year Reduced bio-diversity Reduced budget for Irrigation Development Climate change: Global warming and water shortage Diversification of food demand and industrial use of various crops caused by economic development risk of large demand = excess use of resources To deal with the problems and to reduce poverty, it is strategically effective to utilize the CGPRT Crops 32

33 Utilizing overlooked agricultural resources CGPRT crops can contribute to (1) food supply/ security, (2) creating employment opportunity for all year round for the poor, (3) supply of material/ energy for industries and the creation of more employment opportunity, and (4) maintaining bio diversity and a large attention on the excess use of the resources. 33

34 [5] Action for Poverty Alleviation 1. Strategic Aims of Utilizing CGPRT Crops to secure poor people living in marginal areas where the CGPRT crops mainly support their economy: CGPRT Crops are largely cultivated by poor farmers in marginal areas who are vulnerable under globalized economy and natural disaster to grab new opportunities brought by new demand (food processing and energy industries) 34

35 2. International Platform for the Policy Coordination i. Every country plans to promote the production increase of every crop. ii. Competitive position in the world market could be drastically changed by Climate condition Governmental policies World market condition, particularly foreign exchange rate. 35

36 Deteriorating food security Reducing bio-diversity Excess use of agricultural resources and excess supply of crops causing price fall Increase the economic vulnerability of the poor Under the globalization, policy coordination among countries is important and essential. Ex. DRC as a basic measure for monitoring 36

37 Monitoring CGPRT economy DRC is a basic measure to monitor, but it is difficult to collect the data for estimating DRC which shows the static and competitive position of each crop of each country There are no data base of production cost of individual crops in each country. Due to global warming, Proper area/ zone for growing CGPRT crops could be shifted. changes of variety, crop selection, breeding objective and R&D, farming technology, and cropping pattern necessary to accumulate the data for monitoring GIS data analysis etc. 37

38 PAM (Policy Analysis Matrix) & DRC Revenues Costs Tradable Inputs Domestic Factors Profits Valued at private prices Valued at social prices A B C D 1 E F G H 2 Divergences I 3 J 4 K 5 L 6 Source: From Monke and Pearson (1998). Notes: 1. Private profits, D, equal A minus B minus C. 2. Social profits, H, equal E minus F minus G. 3. Output transfers, I, equal A minus E. 4. Input transfers, J, equal B minus F. 5. Factor transfers, K, equal C minus G. 6. Net policy transfers, L, equal D minus H. 38

39 Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) The DRC is defined as G/(E-F) The DRC indicates whether the use of domestic factor is sociably profitable (DRC<1) or not (DRC>1). 39

40 DRC Ratio by Country Maize Finger millet* Mung bean Black gram Soybean Ground nut Lentil Potato Cassava Bangladesh India Indonesia Lao PDR Myanmar Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Source: UNESCAP-CAPSA (Centre for Alleviation of Poverty through Secondary Crops' Development in Asia and the Pacific) in Bogor Indonesia Note: Two numeric values in some countries mean the range of regional variations. 40 * Bangladesh: Millets

41 Implication of Analysis: DRC etc (1) Production and export promotion in a country could deteriorate the economy of the poor in the other countries relying on CGPRT crops: Export poverty to the other countries. For food security, proper resource use and prevention of poverty export establishing a platform to exchange information and communicate each other among Asian countries. 41

42 (2) Risks by globalized shock Climate change by global warming, Foreign exchange and other macro economic risks: Entirely and largely affects on the CGPRT crop producers. Could cause the sudden change of competitive structure among the Countries. Monitoring and coordinating policies and cooperation among the countries 42

43 [6] Summary and Policy Implication Reduced bio-diversity, excess use of ag. resources Diversification of food demand and industrial use of various crops caused by economic development Globalized risks: climate change, global economy Strategy for Poverty Alleviation through the CGPRT Crops (1) Under the idea of Not separate the poor from market. Producing CGPRT crops accelerates the participation of the poor as producers and new industries (private sector) (2) International monitoring and policy coordination (government) 43

44 Thanks 44