Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction

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1 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Request for Services N 2005/ Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Vietnam Country Study November 2006 Ref MWH rev. 0 This project is funded by the European Union A project implemented by MWH

2 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 TA Team:! Roger Few (team leader)! Authors: David Viner, Laurens M. Bouwer! In partnership with: Nguyen Huu Ninh, Ngo Cam Thanh! A study carried out for the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) with support from the European Commission REVISION DATE DESCRIPTION PREPARED BY (AUTHOR) REVIEWED BY 0 Nov 06 Vietnam Country Study D. Viner, L. Bouwer Michele Lombardini Ref MWH rev. 0

3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Foreword This report has been produced as part of the project Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction, funded by the European Commission on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). VARG is an informal network of bi- and multilateral institutions aiming to facilitate the integration of adaptation to climate variability and change into development processes through sharing of information and experiences. The report is based on a review of secondary information, a series of meetings, interviews and follow-up communications with experts in Vietnam, and discussions during an international VARG workshop in Geneva, Switzerland in October 2006 hosted by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and sponsored by DFID, DGIS, GTZ, OECD and SIDA. We are extremely grateful for the assistance and continuing input given to the project by all the country experts consulted, VARG and the participants in the international workshop (see Appendix 2). The findings from this study and the country studies in México and Kenya are summarised in the synthesis report for the project. Vietnam country study team: > David Viner, MWH Consultant (study leader) > Laurens M. Bouwer, MWH Consultant Vietnam country study partners: > Nguyen Huu Ninh/Ngo Cam Thanh, Center for Environment Research Education and Development (CERED), Vietnam Project team leader: > Roger Few, MWH Consultant Project risk assessment expert: > David Viner, MWH Consultant Project steering committee: > Maria Lamin, European Commission > Frank Sperling, VARG Secretariat/World Bank > Jessica Troni, UK Department for International Development > Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre > Silvia Llosa, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction > Shardul Agrawala, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Technical assistance and logistical support: > MWH (Montgomery Watson Harva sa/nv) Funding for the project was provided by: > European Commission (EC): country studies and synthesis > UK Department for International Development (DFID): partnerships, international workshop > Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS): international workshop > German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ): international workshop > Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): international workshop > Swedish international Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA): international workshop Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

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5 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Table of Content 1. INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW Country background Climate hazard and disaster profile, and potential climate change impacts Typhoons and tropical storms Floods Approaches to disaster risk management Organisations Activities Approaches to climate change adaptation Activities under the UNFCCC Adaptation research activities and projects Current UNDP adaptation efforts CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE Introduction Hazards and vulnerability Current risk from weather extremes Changes in risk resulting from climate change Current policy and practice Disaster preparedness Dykes and Levees Non-structural measures Adaptation needs/options Policy integration Flood protection Development of adaptation options Information base INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS Progress in integration Current mechanisms/incentives Current barriers to integration CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Recommendations Climate and hazard information Communication of risk and planning tools Coordination Political momentum and institutional capacity Grassroots capacity and community involvement Financing adaptation...36 Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

6 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 ANNEXES...39 Appendix 1 - Sources Consulted...41 Appendix 2 - Experts Consulted...43 Appendix 3 - Working Terminology...45 List of Tables Table 1. Incidence of poverty (%) by region... 4 Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005) Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by Table 7. Towards adaptation in Nam Dinh Table 8. Existing mechanisms and incentives that have helped, or may help, foster integration Table 9. Existing barriers to integration Table 10. Summary of key points List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Vietnam... 3 Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs... 6 Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control... 8 Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating and Managing Disasters in Vietnam Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam Figure 6. Mapping of storm tracks during the 2005 season Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region, derived from Global Climate changes and regional scaling factors Figure 8. Mean Sea level at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam Figure 9. Annual variations in the number of Tropical Cyclones active in the North-west pacific Figure 10. Annual variations in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Vietnam or affecting the country over the period Ref MWH rev. 0

7 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Centre MOST Ministry of Science and Technology CACC Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme CCFSC Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control NDMP Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam CECI CERED CISDOMA Canadian Centre for International Studies and Cooperation Centre for Environment Research Education and Development The Consultative Institute for Socio- Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas NGO NOAA NRC PRSP RAMSAR non-governmental organisation National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (United States) Netherlands Red Cross Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Ramsar Convention on Wetlands CPWC Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate RCCCSD Research Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development DANIDA DDMFSC DMC Danish International Development Agency Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control Disaster Management Center RCM SEA-START TAW regional climate model Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training Technical Advisory Committee for Flood Defence (Netherlands) DMU DP DRM DRR ENSO GCM Disaster Management Unit disaster preparedness disaster risk management disaster risk reduction El Niño Southern Oscillation global climate model UNDP UNEP UNESCO-IHE UNFCCC United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO Institute for Water Education United National Framework Convention on Climate Change GEF HMS ICZM IMF IMH Global Environment Facility Hydrometeorological Service integrated coastal zone management International Monetary Fund Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology UN-ISDR VARG VEPA United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group Vietnam Environment Protection Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change VESDI Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute ISG International Support Group (MONRE and MARD) VNHLSS Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey IVM MARD Institute for Environmental Studies Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development VNICZM VNRC Vietnam Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project Vietnam Red Cross MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment WRU Water Resources University Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

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9 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 1. INTRODUCTION This report has been produced as part of the project Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction, carried out for the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) with support from the European Commission. The general objective of the project is to assess, within a poverty reduction perspective:! how and under which conditions can current disaster risk management practices help prepare for climate change;! under which circumstances does climate change require changes in disaster risk management approaches;! what lessons can be learnt from the exercise that could inform wider adaptation policy. The project uses grounded examples in Vietnam, México and Kenya and exchange of experiences across those contexts to provide insights into how a more integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation can be built. The country studies are designed to identify the extent to which current disaster management practices reflect future adaptation needs and assess what changes may be required if such practices are to address future risks, especially in low-income settings. Although risk assessments form part of the studies, we place the emphasis on the institutional capacity and constraints/opportunities within the policy process. Each study is based upon a review of secondary information and a series of interviews and meetings with a number of agencies, researchers, government departments and NGOs during a fiveday visit by members of the project team. Following initial analysis of these findings, further comment, feedback and input was received from country experts, several of whom subsequently participated in an international VARG workshop held in October 2006 at which the findings and implications of the studies were discussed. This document consists of five sections. Section 2 provides a national overview of present and future risks from extreme weather events and current approaches to DRM and climate change adaptation in Vietnam. This is followed in Section 3 by a case study designed to illustrate at a finer scale the implications of climate change for DRM approaches and practice. Drawing on the previous sections, Section 4 then presents an institutional analysis (for the country as a whole), assessing progress in integration of DRM and climate change adaptation and setting out a series of factors that may be contributing to or hindering that process. The concluding section, Section 5, commences with a summary statement on the extent to which present approaches may help prepare for climate change, before presenting a series of preliminary recommendations as to how approaches may need to change in order to meet future challenges. Key points discussed in the latter sections are also listed in tables, including a final summary table listing the main issues and possible means by which they could be addressed. NB The usage of terms relating to risk, vulnerability, disaster management and adaptation in this report is based primarily on standardised definitions provided by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR). Please see Working Terminology at the end of the document (Appendix 3). Vietnam Country Study November

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11 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 2. OVERVIEW 2.1. COUNTRY BACKGROUND Vietnam s long, narrow land mass spans the length of South East Asia s east coast, on the South China Sea, and its west borders Cambodia and Laos. Vietnam has an extensive coastline of over 3000km in length, and the majority of its population lives in these coastal regions. Vietnam is a relatively poor country that has had to recover from the damage of war, loss of financial support from the old Soviet Bloc, and the rigidities of a centrallyplanned economy. Since the mid-eighties, Vietnam has undergone major economic growth. The Doi Moi process (literally translated means change and newness ) has reformed economic policy and has decentralised markets, allowing foreign investment and impressive economic growth, doubling the size of the economy and raising many out of poverty (Ninh et al, 2006). However, this economic development has raised conflicts and compromises by placing stresses on the environment such as deforestation, land degradation, flooding, water pollution, over-fishing and waste, which place stresses on many communities and have created greater difficulties for many of the country s poor (Ninh et al., 2006). Many still remain in poverty, with an estimated 29% of the total population living below the poverty line in According to new poverty line standards, this amount would be higher. Figure 1. Map of Vietnam Vietnam is heavily dependant on its natural resources, particularly agriculture and fisheries. 80% of the country s population is rural and is largely dependant on the main food crop of rice, of which Vietnam is one of the world s largest exporters (IUCC, 1997). Whilst the country s large Delta regions in the North (the Red River Delta) and South (the Mekong Delta) provide fertile land for agriculture, the country is plagued by frequent natural disasters, specifically typhoons, tropical cyclones and flooding, which play a substantial role in inhibiting economic development. These delta regions are also densely populated, and with Vietnam s population of 80 million expanding at a rate of 1.4% (growth rate in 2000, MoNRE, 2003), these regions will incur greater pressures still in future. Regional differences in poverty incidence are indicated in Table 1. These may be related to the impacts of natural disasters, as the less disaster stricken south-east of Vietnam has experienced much higher growth rates in the past, compared to the Central Coast and North Central regions. However, Vietnam Country Study November

12 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 other factors, such as a better infrastructure and transportation system, play an important role as well (Benson, 1997). Table 1. Incidence of poverty (%) by region AREA Northern uplands Red River Delta North Central Central Coast Central Highlands South East Mekong Total Data source: General Statistics Office, Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (taken from NDMpartnership Framework and Action Plan ) Note: 2002 data are preliminary estimates. Rural households are typically 5 times more likely to live under the poverty line than urban households (2002 estimates from VNHLSS), and poverty in rural areas has declined much slower than in urban areas. The expansion of irrigation infrastructure may increase agricultural production. But is has been suggested that due to the lack of flood protection neither the government nor farmers are willing to invest in such infrastructure (Benson, 1997) CLIMATE HAZARD AND DISASTER PROFILE, AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Vietnam experiences a tropical monsoon climate. The wide range of latitudes and the marked variety of topographical relief means that the climate tends to vary considerably from region to region. Mean annual temperature ranges from C and a distinct seasonal difference is felt between the dry season in November to April and the warm rainy season from May to September (MoNRE, 2003). Mean annual rainfall ranges from 600mm to 5,000mm, 80-90% of which is concentrated in the rainy season. (MoNRE, 2003). The location and topography of Vietnam make it one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, suffering from typhoons, tropical storms, floods, drought, seawater intrusions, landslides and forest fires (Jegillos et al., 2005). Of these, the most damaging and frequent are typhoons, tropical storms and floods. Over recent decades, the damage due to natural disasters has increased drastically (Table 2) and this trend may continue in future as climate change is expected to alter the current storm system and precipitation regimes. 4 Ref MWH rev. 0

13 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, (ADRC, 2002) According to MoNRE (2003), climate model simulations under a range of emissions scenarios suggest mean annual temperature changes for Vietnam of C by 2070, but further simulations based on a range of scenarios suggest that this change could be as great at 3-4 C (Climate Impacts LINK Project, 2003). Changes in precipitation are less certain, with a range of possible outcomes covering both increases and decreases in annual mean precipitation, but increases are generally suggested (MoNRE, 2003; Granwich et al., 1993). Regions affected by the North-eastern monsoon are expected to experience increases of 0-5% during the dry season and 0-10% in the rainy season (MoNRE, 2003) Typhoons and tropical storms Vietnam is affected by typhoon and tropical cyclone activity from the North-West Pacific ocean, with 4-5 events affecting the coast of Vietnam every year (MoNRE, 2003). These regular disasters cause extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure and losses to agriculture and fisheries, having a detrimental effect on the capacity of communities to develop and move beyond poverty (DW Vietnam, 2004). Breaching or over-topping of protective dykes in the event of storm surges from typhoons and tropical storms causes agricultural land to be flooded by salt-water and thus be rendered unproductive for several years. When this occurs frequently, resources in the community are insufficient to make repairs and the result is severe poverty and malnutrition (CCSFC, 2003). Furthermore, environmental degradation has contributed to Vietnam s vulnerability to storms and cyclones in recent years, mangrove destruction has left many regions less protected from the storm surges that accompany the storms (Tri et al, 1998). Vietnam Country Study November

14 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 The most intense and destructive storm in recent history was Typhoon Linda in 1997, which flattened entire communities leaving tens of thousands homeless, ha of rice fields destroyed, thousand of fishermen lost at sea and roads, dykes and bridges smashed (Tiempo, 1997). The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have apparently increased over the last few decades (Fan et al., 2006). In Vietnam, the decade had the largest number of typhoons, and during the decade the number of typhoons decreased (see also Figure 10). During recent years, the trajectories of typhoons has moved southward, and the typhoon season appears to have shifted to later in the year. Tropical cyclone and typhoon occurrences are expected to alter under climate change scenarios, as storms may become more frequent, more intense or change patterns of storm track (IPCC, 2001), and the typhoon season may become longer (Granwich et al., 1993) Floods Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs Source: IPCC data Distribution Centre, 2004 More than one million people in Vietnam are at risk from annual flooding (based on 1995 population figures), a vast majority of whom are people living in the low lying Delta regions (Zeidler, 1998). In 6 Ref MWH rev. 0

15 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction the flood season, heavy rainfall upstream causes high discharges and large-scale annual flooding throughout September and October. This period of inundation can last even longer, up to 6 months depending on climate variability and topography (Wassman et al., 2004). These floods are added to by shallow tidal flooding at the coast. Projections of populations change and development suggest that, even without any changes in climate or sea-level, the number of people at risk is expected to rise by 60% by 2025 and the US$720 million of capital value currently at risk from annual flooding may increase ten-fold to make the total equivalent to 5% of Vietnam s GDP (Zeidler, 1998). Rising sea-levels will almost certainly occur and increase this risk even further. Sea-level rise of 30 centimetres to 1m over the next 100 years is expected, which is projected to cause the capital value lost every year to US$17 billion 80% of the country s annual GDP if no protective measures are taken (Zeidler, 1998). The increased risk is not restricted to coastal areas, in fact rise of river beds and backwater effects will also cause serious problems to inland river regions, with a total of km2 flooded annually (Zeidler, 1998). Changes to precipitation regimes expected under climate change scenarios will exacerbate flooding problems further. Most climate models indicate overall increases in precipitation (Figure 2) and the concentration of Vietnam s annual rainfall over a short rainy season makes the system sensitive to rainfall increases (MoNRE, 2003). Wet season rainfall increases are expected to increase peak flows considerably and reduce the return period of a 100-year event to 20 years (MoNRE, 2003) APPROACHES TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT This section outlines some key disaster risk management institutions operating in Vietnam and discusses their activities Organisations Disaster risk management in Vietnam is coordinated foremost by the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, which was founded in This Committee is chaired by the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. Additionally, each sectoral ministry has a ministerial Committee for Flood and Storm Control that cooperates with the national central committee and offices at provincial level. Central government structures are complemented by a management system extending to provincial and local levels. Committees for Flood and Storm Control (CFSC) The main body for co-ordinating disaster management in Vietnam is the Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control (CCSFC) with the Department of Dyke Management and Flood and Storm Control in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development acting as its standing office (Rego, 2001). The CCFSC have responsibility for gathering data, monitoring flood and storm events, issuing official warnings and coordinating disaster response and mitigation measures. The CCSFC consists of representatives of the various relevant ministries, as well as the Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control, the Hydro-meteorological Service, and the Vietnam Red Cross (Figure 3). According to the organisational framework (from National Report 2005), the Central Committee is responsible for assisting the Government in:! Observing and investigating the establishment and implementation of the annual flood and storm preparedness solutions and plans; Vietnam Country Study November

16 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6! Issuing mandates on mobilizing labour forces, equipment, etc to respond to pressing situations which exceed local authorisation;! Instructing localities how to overcome consequences caused by floods and storms;! Organizing summing up workshops on disaster preparedness and mitigation to propagate experiences, lessons, and advanced technologies in disaster preparedness and mitigation in localities and sectors At the provincial, district and commune levels, local CFSCs are responsible for:! Helping the equivalent People s Committee to implement flood and storm measures in the territory;! Organizing dyke protection, flood and storm preparedness and mitigation;! Flood recovery and rehabilitation. Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control Sector Committees Ministries and central sectors establish Sector Committees for Flood and Storm Control, which are responsible for:! Building and implementing flood and storm preparedness and mitigation, protecting people, physical and technical materials under the sector s management! Managing contingency materials and equipment in support of flood and storm preparedness and mitigation under the sector s management function! Timely supply of materials, equipment, technologies, etc. to affected areas in emergency situations and support for flood and storm recovery, following the mobilizing mandates of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control 8 Ref MWH rev. 0

17 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction! Drawing out lessons in flood, inundation, and storm preparedness and mitigation and promoting them to localities and units in the sector. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) was established in November 1995 by merging several Ministries.! The Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control (DDMFSC) is the organisation that has the task to maintain the dykes and flood defences. The director of the Standing Office of the CCFSC is also the director of the DDMFSC, which falls under MARD. The DDMFSC has a number of functions that relate to the management of dikes (Decree No. 355/TTg of Prime Minister, May 1996). They also implement all disaster prevention and mitigation activities ordered by the Government and Ministry (MARD).! The Disaster Management Center (DMC) operates under the DDMFSC and thus the ministry of MARD. The task of the DMC is to coordinate with the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center and provide information to the DDMFSC for flood and storm disaster mitigation. It also supports CCFSC in reservoir operation. The DMC issues warnings and directions for disaster management. (Decision No. 180NN-TCCB of MARD, January 1997). Hydro-meteorological forecasting is undertaken by the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center, which falls under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MONRE). The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology under MONRE provides research and expertise for weather forecasting and climate modelling. Additionally, the Hanoi University of Science undertakes and provides predictions for wave height and direction as well as precipitation and drought. The ministry of MARD has established the so-called International Support Group (ISG). The ISG is a forum for dialogue in the agriculture and rural development sector in preparation for donor- Government Consultative Group (CG) Meetings. The Thematic Ad-hoc Group 2 of ISG addresses Hydraulic works development, disaster control and rural water supply, which focuses on strengthening coordination among Ministries and donors in water sector strategies and River Basin Organisations (RBOs). Vietnam Red Cross The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) are the major agency operating across the whole of the country that are involved in DRM. The VNRC have a range of activities operating at the country, province, district and commune level. The activities of the VNRC are related to minimizing impacts of disasters by raising awareness in communities on disaster preparedness, and organizing works of prevention and response to disasters as well as works of relief and recovery. An important project of the Vietnam Red Cross relating to disaster risk reduction is mangrove replantation in the coastal zone (for more details see subsection 3.3) Partnerships with international institutions The Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam (NDM-Partnership) is an association made up of voluntary members of Government, NGOs and donors. The objective of the NDM- Partnership is to establish proactive co-operation among concerned Government agencies, interested donors and NGOs, through regular information sharing and policy dialogue; proposing and recommending priorities in allocation of resources, and setting implementation modalities to effectively utilise Government, Donor, and NGO resources for mitigation of natural disasters (NDM Part- Vietnam Country Study November

18 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 nership, 2004). Although initially aimed at the Central Provinces of Vietnam, in response to the severe flooding disaster in 1999, the intention has been expressed to widen the partnership to the national level. Specifically, the partnership has set the objective to support the Government in implementing its development strategies, as set out in the Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management, that are to reduce the number of deaths from 800 per year in the 1990s to 200 deaths per year in the period , and to reduce the economic losses caused by disasters from an average of 2% in the 1990s to below 1% of national GDP in the period (NDM Partnership, 2004). The Partnership has also recognised the long-term risk of climate change. The UNDP disaster reduction programme in Vietnam consists of a number of projects, among them the project Capacity building for Disaster Mitigation in Viet Nam ( ), which has helped to initiate the NDM-Partnership, and the project Support to the Disaster Management System in Viet Nam ( ), which has helped to establish a nationwide water disaster information and monitoring system Activities According to the extensive analysis of Benson (1997) the following natural disaster risk reduction measures can be recognised in Vietnam: 1. Structural measures The main approach to disaster mitigation in Vietnam is a system of 5,000km of river and 3,000km of sea dykes. This extensive dyke and levee system has been in operation for over 1000 years, built and maintained by the local community who were obliged to contribute 20 work days per year to their maintenance. This has since dropped to only 10 days per year due to pressures on human resources and economic restrictions, and is likely to reduce further in the future (CCFSC, 2003). Table 3 lists legislation relating to dykes and other defence works in Vietnam. Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences > Ordinance on Dykes (1989) > Ordinance on Prevention and Control of Floods and Storms and Implementation Provisions (1993) > Law on Water Resources (1998) > Regulation on flood diversion and slowing (1999) > Decree on flood diversion and slowing (1999) > Decision on the works of flood and storm prevention (2002) > Dyke Management Law (draft 2006) Dykes are present mainly in the northern and central parts of the country. Along the Red River in the north many river dykes have been put in place as well as seawalls. Along the central coast, small river basins are present, and flooding along these rivers can be regarded as flash floods. Seawalls present here are lower than in the northern areas and frequently overflow and wash away. In the Mekong Delta in the south annual flooding occurs, and little has been done to protect the land from flooding. No dykes are present here, and water flows in an open channel system. In these areas, an extensive system of drainage channels and pumping stations has been put in place for agriculture. 10 Ref MWH rev. 0

19 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Dykes are often of poor quality as they consist mostly of earthen structures and have been built by manual labour. Sedimentation of stretches of rivers between dykes in response to the reduction of overbank areas has increased the flood risks as the river bed in some places has risen above the local topography. Also, the raising of dykes has increased flood risk as it has caused a false sense of security in the local population, leading to increasing investments in houses and infrastructure behind the dykes. 2. Non structural measures Non structural measures include mangrove re-plantation and windbreaks along buildings. Mangrove restoration has been demonstrated to improve conditions substantially, as mangrove offers protection from the storm surges which accompany tropical storms and cyclones. For example, restored mangrove in the Kien Thuy District of Northern Vietnam reduce a 4m storm surge brought by storm number 7 in 2005 to a 0.5 m wave, causing no harm in the region (Jegillos et al., 2005). A number of projects such as this have been introduced to vulnerable coastal regions of Vietnam and have proved very successful. 3. Building structures Poor housing is an important concern and the most important single cause of risk. There is however a large amount of traditional knowledge of appropriate building techniques. Building codes and landuse planning legislation and enforcement have been put in place, but further legislation may be needed as well as more strict enforcement. 4. Disaster warning and preparedness Forecast and warning is being carried out by the Vietnamese government for tropical cyclones and floods. There is no system for flash floods but research has started to look into forecasting possibilities. The national typhoon warning system delivers a 48 hour warning, based on a typhoon model that is operated by the Hydrometeorological Service (HMS). Real-time observational data is available from the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Agency. In 2008 data will also be available from Vietnam s satellite Vinasat. The predicted typhoon path from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is used for reference as well. During the flood season, dykes are monitored 24 hours per day. Warnings are broadcasted through TV and radio and in smaller communities through loudspeakers in the streets. In 1995, the CCFSC set up a disaster communication system which uses an electronic mail network to disseminate information to every province in Vietnam on a 24 hours a day, 365 days a year basis, exchanging disaster assessment reports between provincial and national levels, and passing disaster response directives to its staff in the field (Rego, 2001). However, the CCFSC have identified that the current systems for disaster warning are still severely lacking, often unreliable, and the procedures for issuing warnings suffer from a lack of modern communication technology and that public awareness of the threat of water disasters is low even though the risk of flooding is very high (CCSFC, 2003). 5. Post disaster relief Immediate relief efforts are well-organised and effective, but rehabilitation efforts could be improved, particularly for the poor. Vietnam Country Study November

20 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Policies and plans for disaster risk management Table 4 lists a series of policies relating to DRM in Vietnam. These are reflected in successive national strategy plans for the country. Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005) > Land policy and land use management > Policies for forest planting, protecting and forest management and exploitation > Policy on managing natural resources and exploitation management > Water resources management policy > Policy on environmental protection, sustainable development, and environmental management > Policies for flood diversion and retention and dredging riverbed for flood release > Policy for overcoming the aftermath of disaster in disaster-prone areas > Policies for living-with-flood areas After an international workshop on flood mitigation, emergency preparedness and flood disaster management in Hanoi in 1992, the First National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation was developed and approved in 1994 (updated 1995). The plan addressed the following important water-related disasters in Vietnam: river floods; flooding from the sea; increased runoff; erosion and siltation of river beds; slope instability, mudflows, and landslides; torrential rains in combination with strong winds; failures of water-retaining structures; and seawater intrusion into ground water The plan had three main goals: forecasting and warning, disaster preparedness and mitigation, and emergency relief. The Disaster Management Unit has since developed a Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management for the period This addresses all major phases of the disaster cycle (Figure 4) and has the following ten basic principles: 1. Disaster planning will be based on multi-hazards identification and risk assessment; based on the different types of disaster hazard and different levels of disaster risk in different parts of the country. 2. Disaster preparedness and disaster forecasting are the preferred methods of disaster mitigation. 3. Disaster preparedness and disaster mitigation are the task of each local area throughout the country. 4. Measures for ensuring the long-term benefit of disaster mitigation for the whole community are to be given the highest priority. 5. Measures for reducing the risk of a particular type of disaster must be compatible with reducing the risk of other types of disasters. 6. All measures must be carefully considered, both for practicality and technology, and these measures have to be realistic in the Vietnamese context in its current and future state of development. 7. Reduction of disaster risk must be compatible with traditional disaster coping mechanisms of local people; and must support hunger eradication and equitable poverty reduction (HEPR). 8. Measures for disaster preparedness and mitigation must be consistent with the economic development level of each local area, as well as the desired general economic development of the country. 9. Measures for disaster mitigation must be compatible with measures for protecting the environment, protecting equitable development, sustaining natural resources and preserving cultural heritage. 12 Ref MWH rev. 0

21 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 10. Co-operation and co-ordination between the central level of government, local level of government, state agencies, non-government organisations, and the general public must be well established using a bottom up approach starting at the grassroots level. Similarly, cooperation and coordination of external assistance needs to be strengthened and aggressively pursued. Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating and Managing Disasters in Vietnam. Local plans for disaster preparedness are also developed. The process for developing these on a yearly basis has been explained as follows by NRC (2006): Every year, the CCFSC sends out instructions to the provinces to prepare a DP plan for the local hazard situation. In the DP plan, there should be options for various hazards with preparation in human and material resources, facilities and equipment, strengthening of dykes and disaster prone areas, task assignments. These instructions are then cascaded down to the commune level. At the commune level, village heads are requested to provide information about their villages (hazards, high-risk areas, vulnerable people, available resources, etc.). The commune people s committee establishes a Committee for Flood and Storm (CFSC), comprising of heads of villages and mass organisations. The CFSC sends its teams out to do field surveys in villages. From the survey results and local resources, the CFSC standing members develop a DP plan with task assignment for its membership. The village heads are then informed of the plan at meetings who guide and instruct the local people in the implementation of the plan in the villages. Disaster reduction projects A number of donor supported projects are being carried out in Vietnam that support natural disaster risk reduction. A selection of projects is listed below (adapted from Danida, 2005). The Vietnam Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project started in The first phase of the Project ( ) had the objective of establishing an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) programme for Vietnam. The main aspect of this phase was the sustainable development of the coastal zone. The current phase of the projects aims to strengthen institutional Vietnam Country Study November

22 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 ICZM frameworks at the province level, as well as introduction of ICZM at the district level. Also, a first national ICZM strategy document will be set up. The Second Phase of the project is projected to start in The project is funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and is coordinated by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) of Vietnam through its Viet Nam Environment Protection Agency (VEPA). The Vietnam Coastal Wetlands Protection and Development Project ( ), is aiming to re-establish the coastal mangrove wetland ecosystem, in particular in the area of the Mekong delta in order to support sustainable coastal protection. The project also aims to help poor people that depend on mangrove forests by helping them to move and resettle in the buffer zone and provide them with sustainable livelihoods. The project is funded by the Government of Vietnam, Danida and the World Bank. The Quang Ngai Disaster Mitigation Project ( ) the project aims to have a planned and effective response to disasters and is focussed on local communities in Quang Ngai province. A proactive approach could reduce the impacts of floods and other disasters on local livelihoods. The project is funded by the Australian Government. The Water Disaster Risk Reduction Projects in Da Nang City and Binh Dinh Province are under the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDM Partnership) for Central Vietnam. The aim is to mitigate the effects of water-related disasters on poverty and hunger, gender equality, environmental protection and sustainable development in the most vulnerable and poorest areas of central Vietnam. These projects of two years are carried out by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in collaboration with CECI and are funded by the Royal Netherlands Embassy, the Government of Luxemburg and UNDP. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper A Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Vietnam was completed in 2002, called the Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. This paper mentions, among the major policies and measures to promote sustainable growth and poverty reduction, that in order to develop agriculture and the rural economy to achieve rapid poverty reduction, it is needed to develop a disaster prevention strategy to minimise losses and stabilise livelihoods and production in disaster-prone areas (PRSP 2003, p 69). It goes on to state that attempts must be made to:! Strengthen the program on disaster prevention and mitigation, build the system of information collection and hydrometeorology forecasts, raise the awareness and improve the people s capacity to respond to natural disasters, build infrastructure and safe sites, build up reserves for emergency and train rescue teams. Establish the Fund for Recovery from Disaster to provide timely and effective assistance to the poor in case of disaster. Make efforts to set up the social safety net system such as the Hunger Prevention Fund, which may be utilised before the harvest period.! Annually, State budget funds will be used to invest in building and mending dykes and in funding other flood and drought prevention facilities and to build flood prevention and distribution facilities in the North. In the Central region, continue to adjust the population master plan, build flood prevention facilities, lakes to prevent water overflow, provide financing for people to build houses on stilts to withstand the effects of flooding, complete the irrigation sea dyke system, estuary dykes and flood control, reduce losses from natural calamities, especially to ensure the safety of people s homes and ensure their normal life in the deep flood areas in the Mekong river delta during the high water season. 14 Ref MWH rev. 0

23 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction! Establish local flood prevention funds mobilised from contributions by the people according to government regulations. Furthermore, a reserve plan is needed to cope with weather problems APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Activities under the UNFCCC The Initial National Communication of Vietnam (2003) has identified key sectors that are vulnerable to climate change, and where adaptation is potentially needed. A Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment has been carried out for the following seven sectors:! Water resources! Agriculture! Forestry and land-use! Aquaculture! Coastal zone! Energy and transport! Human health The climate change scenario upon which the vulnerability assessment for the Initial National Communication is based was generated using the CCAM model from CSIRO, using the IS92A and B scenarios. It must be stated that these scenarios are not state-of-the-art in terms of the climate models used or the underlying socio-economic conditions. As a result, therefore, they must be used a guides rather than absolute values. Seven different regions were identified, for which the elements temperature, rainfall and sea-level rise were analysed for the periods 2010, 2050 and A number of adaptation options have been identified in these assessments, but no programmes to implement adaptation measures have been described. The Initial National Communication however describes one project that may contribute to the reduction of natural hazards. This is the Project on forest plantation on sandy soil in the coast of the Southern Central Viet Nam (project number 4 described in the Annexes). The project aimed at planting 5 million hectares of new forest, of which 60,000 hectares of coastal protective forest, during the period of Its main purpose was preventing sand movement in the central coastal zones. The Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC is in preparation and forthcoming in 2006 or According to Danida (2005), for adaptation, the focal areas will be water resources, coastal zone management and agriculture. MoNRE carries out the work, with support from UNEP/GEF Adaptation research activities and projects Several vulnerability and adaptation projects explicitly related to climate change have been carried out or proposed in Vietnam. Some are discussed later in subsection 4.1, but the more general ones listed by Danida (2005) include: The project Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang ( ) is funded by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP) and implemented by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and Department of Natural Resources and Environment in Hue, which are both part of MONRE. The project aims to strengthen the capacity of sectors, institutions and people, in order to reduce their vulnerability to water-related disasters. This is achieved by improving their understanding and preparedness and minimise negative Vietnam Country Study November

24 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 effects and losses. The main focus is on water resources and stakeholder involvement, and a stakeholder action plan (SAP) is to be developed. The Viet Nam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment project ( ) assessed the vulnerability of the entire coastal zone of Vietnam to the effects of sea-level rise, and developed an approach for integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. The project was undertaken by the Marine Hydrometeorological Centre of the Hydro-meteorological Center (HMS), with support from a European coastal zone management expert team. The project was funded by the Dutch Government. The Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate (CPWC) (2000 ongoing) is a network organisation focussing on climate change and water resources. The programme aims to improve the capacity in water resources management to cope with the effects of increasing variability of the global climate. A number of dialogue meetings were held in Vietnam and South East Asia, which have functioned as a platform for improved access to information on meteorology and climatology. The CPWC secretariat is located at UNESCO-IHE in The Netherlands. The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) is carrying out a number of projects related to climate change impacts and adaptation. A recent effort involves the simulation of climate change using a regional model, with support from the Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (SEA-START) Regional Center, established in Also, it is involved in a project funded by DANIDA on the benefits of climate change adaptation from small and medium scale hydropower plants Current UNDP adaptation efforts A new GEF-funded project will be implemented in Vietnam over the period on community based adaptation. This project also covers Bangladesh, Bolivia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, and Samoa. This project aims to inform the GEF as well as national governments, donors and others, on how local-scale adaptation in different sectors and institutions can be supported. Additionally, two project proposals from UNDP that relate to climate change adaptation are pending for review at GEF; one on land degradation in the South Central Coast region of Vietnam; and a proposal for a comprehensive capacity building project for climate change adaptation ( Implementing long-term adaptation measures that increase the resilience of national development sectors to the impacts of climate change ). 16 Ref MWH rev. 0

25 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 3. CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE Using the case study of Nam Dinh Province on the Red River Delta in Northern Vietnam as illustration, this section investigates how effectively present DRM practices may be able to cope with future hazards, highlighting both how current approaches may help to prepare for climate change and how they may need to alter. This section is based on the literature review and interviews (both structured and informal) with individuals involved in DRM, with a particular focus on the impact of flooding on poor rural livelihoods. The aim is that the material in this section provides a case study example that will help ground and inform the national-level institutional analysis in Section INTRODUCTION Nam Dinh province is one of 11 provinces in Vietnam s Red River Delta Region in northern Vietnam (Figure 5). Nam Dinh lies 90 km south of the country s Capital, Hanoi, and is bordered by the provinces of Ha Nam (north), Ninh Binh (west) and Thai Binh (north-east), with 72 km coastline on the south-east. The Red River runs north-west to south-east, along Nam Dinh s north-eastern border. The province covers 1637 km2, of which 65% is agricultural, 3% forest, 15% specialised land and 5.7% residential (Vietnam Trade Information Center, 2001). Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam Nam Dinh Province lies in the Red River Delta Region, which, like the Mekong Delta region in the south of the country, is fertile and agriculturally highly productive. The low-lying land provides ideal conditions for wet rice cultivation and this high productivity has made the region one of the most densely populated and intensely cultivated areas of coastal Vietnam (Adger, 2000). Regions like this have doubled their agricultural output since the 1980s (Adger, 1999). Nam Dinh s close proximity to the Capital, Hanoi, means that transport and communication links are relatively good. Whilst the geography of the region brings productivity, it also means that the region is vulnerable to natural disasters. The low-lying land is subject to annual floods from the Red River, and also tidal flooding and saltwater intrusion from the coastline. The coastline is also vulnerable to tropical storms and cyclones, which bring destructive high winds, very heavy rainfall and storm surges several times a year. Vietnam Country Study November

26 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES NAM DINH PROVINCE RED RIVER DELTA REGION VIETNAM Area (km!) Population (millions, 1994) Population growth (est. %) Population density (persons per km!) 1,060 1, Urban Population (%) GDP (VND 000billion, 1993; 1989 constant) Food crop production per capita (kg rice equivalent per capita) (from Adger, 2000) 3.2. HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY Current risk from weather extremes The Red River Delta region and in particular Nam Dinh Province is currently affected by large and rapid changes in floodwater levels. Inundation occurs annually, due partly to very high river-levels in the rainy season causing deep flooding in the Delta region, but also to tidal flooding at the coast, which brings shallower, saline flood waters to low-lying coastal regions. Figure 6. Mapping of storm tracks during the 2005 season. Photograph taken in the Nam Dinh CCFSC Office (Photo by Laurens Bouwer). Nam Dinh Province is currently protected by a system of dykes and levees which have been built and added to over the last 1000 years by the local communities (Jegillos et al, 2005). This system protects the precious agricultural land from inundation and allows the rice production on which the local economy is dependent. In addition to this annual cycle of flooding, the region is also subject to tropical storms and cyclones that bring high winds, very intense rainfall, flash flooding and storm surges. These events affect Nam Dinh several times a year, causing extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure and losses to agriculture and fisheries, upon which the communities of the region depend. Figure 6 shows the tracks of typhoons during the 2005 season. 18 Ref MWH rev. 0

27 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Changes in risk resulting from climate change Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase existing risks in Nam Dinh. Whilst typhoons may not increase in frequency, evidence from studies in other regions of the world indicates a possible strengthening of typhoons (Emmanuel, 2005). There are a number of additional factors which also need to be accounted for in assessing changing risks to Nam Dinh province, including: sea level rise; changes in precipitation amounts and rates; and changes in wave height and steepness. Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by 2070 CASE 1 CASE 2 CASE 3 > Temperature increases and total annual rainfall increases. > Daily Rainfall increases by 20%. > Temperature increases and rainfall decreases in rainy season, rainfall in dry regions increases. > Daily rainfall increases by 25% > Temperature increases and rainfall increases in both seasons. > Daily rainfall decreases by 10% (MoNRE, 2003) Annual Run off Low Flow Flood-top Discharge Present 2070 % Present 2070 % Present 2070 % Case Case Case (Kelly et al., 1996, in: Lien, 2002). Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region, derived from Global Climate changes and regional scaling factors Vietnam Country Study November

28 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Regionally-scaled climate projections for the Nam Dinh province have greater uncertainty associated with them, with annual precipitation changes ranging from increases of 20% to decreases of 40-50% (Figure 7) (Lien, 2002). The implications for river run-off for a range of changes in climate are demonstrated in Table 6. It is likely that increases in total precipitation, and increases in intensity of precipitation, will cause increases in peak flows and further flood risk in the region. The low lying province of Nam Dinh is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, which could be as much as 1m (IPCC, 2001). Such a rise would threaten 60% of the wetlands and cause inundation of cultivated agricultural areas (Zeidler, 1998). The Xuan Thuy RAMSAR site in Nam Dinh (Red River mouth) is particularly at risk (Zeidler, 1998). The loss of the coastal wetlands mangrove ecosystem in this region will have knock on effects for the vulnerability of the region to tropical storms and cyclones, as the mangrove systems protect coastal regions from storm surges. Sea level rise of around 1.5 to 2.0 mm per year is already evident in record for the last 50 years (Figure 8). Climate model simulations have also indicated that increased sea surface temperatures under a warmer climate will cause tropical storms and cyclones to become, on average, more intense, resulting in an increase in frequency of the most damaging storms. For Vietnam, there are also concerns that the cyclone season will become longer and that storm tracks will alter. (Granwich et al., 1993). An increasing trend in tropical cyclone frequency in the North West pacific may already be evident in recent records (Figure 9), but presently there is no indication of increases in the number reaching Vietnam (Figure 10). Note that the numbers shown in Figure 10 only represent the typhoons making landfall in Vietnam or those that are seriously affecting the country. The total number of storms observed off the coast of Vietnam may be higher. Figure 8. Mean Sea level at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam (Lien, 2002) Figure 9. Annual variations in the number of Tropical Cyclones active in the North-west pacific (Lien, 2002) 20 Ref MWH rev. 0