Strategic Trends in World Markets for

Transcription

1 Strategic Trends in World Markets for 4 Congreso Nacional de la Carne Lleida, Oct. 9th 28 Stéphanie Abbal s.abbal@girafood.com 1

2 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 2

3 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 3

4 A quarter of total meat consumption takes place in China and that s where most growth will come from! Breakdown of total meat consumption 25 Total meat consumption bridge 25/215 Africa 3% MENA 3% Oceania 3% Far East 2% CIS 4% S.America 7% India 7% 12% Japan 7% EU 13% China 24% million tons NAFTA 15% Far East EU CIS MENA S.America NAFTA China Source: GIRA 25 China NAFTAS.AmericaMENA CIS EU Far East 215 4

5 Meat Consumption is a Function of Per Capita GDP measured in Purchasing Power Parity Meat Consumption as a Function of Per Capita GDP (in PPP USD) (Kg/cap.) Russia China Mexico KSA Philippines Turkey S Africa Ukraine Thailand Egypt Iran Indonesia India Source: Gira compilations * Japan & S Korea: total meat and fish consumption Brazil Poland Argentina Spain Japan* S Korea* Australia NZ Canada France Germany Italy UK R 2 =,7326 USA GDP (USD) PPP GDP growth is the basis for increased meat consumption in the future Production constraints are the real brake on growth 5

6 1.5 Global meat consumption will continue to rise strongly especially poultry & pigmeat Meat consumption by species - 25/215 ' t cwe Sheepmea t B eef P igmea t Poultr y Sheepmeat Beef Pigmeat Poultry Poultry Pigmeat Beef Sheepmeat 215 Source: GIRA Poultry will be the winner: Cheapest protein: the low price is definitely a key point in all markets Healthy reputation Easy use at household, industry and foodservice level No ethnic restrictions Pigmeat market is 65% larger than beef and growth to 215 is more than 2.5 times stronger! But pigmeat market growth is slightly slower than for poultry. 6

7 Most demand growth will be covered by local production. Brazil will develop its production for export. Total Meat Consumption and Production 25, and Growth p.a % 3% Russia China Growth p.a. 25/215 2% 1% % 3% Regions: India Brazil China EU USA Mex. Brazil Russia Mexico USA India Japan Sectors: EU Production Consumption Japan % 25 Volume (' t) Source: Gira compilations and forecasts 7

8 Most demand growth will be covered by local production. Brazil will develop its production for export. Total Meat Consumption and Production 25, and Growth p.a % 3% Russia China Growth p.a. 25/215 2% 1% % 3% Regions: India Brazil China EU USA Mex. Brazil Russia Mexico USA India Japan Sectors: EU Production Consumption Japan % 25 Volume (' t) Source: Gira compilations and forecasts 8

9 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 9

10 Despite its handicap in Muslim countries, pigmeat will remain the n 1 meat in the world Pigmeat consumption by major contributing countries/regions - 25/215 ' t cwe million tons in next 1 years (+1.9% p.a.) Main strength of pigmeat: it is perceived as a range of products: cold cuts to the Germans, bacon to the British, spare ribs to the Americans and ham & sausages to almost everyone China Russia USA EU27 Mexico Ukraine 215 Source: GIRA 1

11 Pigmeat per capita consumption will rise by an average of.9% p.a. to 21, then.7% p.a. to 215 Pigmeat per capita consumption - 25/215 EU15/27 Taiwan CEECs China USA Canada Australia Japan S Korea Philippines Russia World average NZ Mexico Ukraine Brazil Thailand Other CIS South Africa All other countries -1,, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, (Kg/cap.) 25 consumption Increment World average: from 15.9 kg in 25 to 17.2 kg in 215 EU 27: from 42.1 kg in 25 to 42.6 kg in 215 consumption per cap. already the highest in the world pigmeat benefits from its multiple aspects: the bulk is processed meats. China: from 37.4 kg in 25 to 46.7 kg in 215 the rise in demand will essentially be supplied by local production Russia: from 17.8 kg in 25 to 26. kg in 215 strong growth of demand in a context of declining beef availability. Japan: A come-back for beef after ban on US and CA means that there will be a shift from pigmeat to beef consumption. 11

12 8% of the world pigmeat production increase will come from China! Pigmeat production by area - 25/215 (' t cwe) World average growth: 95-5: +2.9% p.a. 5-1: +2.1% p.a. 1-15: +1.7% p.a. Chinese production to rise by 17.1 mios t over the next decade Japan Canada Russia Brazil USA EU China Source: GIRA, FAO for world total 12

13 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 13

14 Pigmeat Tradeflows, 21 (trend through 215) Flows in ' t cwe > 5 Red arrow: decrease forecast to 215 Black arrow: no significant change Blue arrow: increase forecast to 215 Dotted arrow: new market in

15 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 15

16 Pigmeat Exports: the growth will be driven by Brazil, whose objective is to turn toward added value markets Pigmeat Exporters (incl. Live) The biggest exporters, with a breakdown of their destinations CA US KR MX 12 1 KR CA 5 1 JP MX US 4 2 JP (' t cwe) 3 China/HK Brazil EU USA Canada EU BR Source: Gira compilations and forecasts CEECs 6 KR 4 RU 2 JP (' t cwe) MX 8 SA 6 CN 4 2 RU

17 Highlight: EU pigmeat 17

18 EU Pigmeat production: minor growth in the EU Summary EU Pigmeat Balance (f) 25, Little or no scope for increasing production (except in Germany) 't cwe 2, 15, 1, 5, * (15) 24(25) 25(25) 25(27) 26e Production Consumption Exports Imports 21f 215f Pig productivity will continue to increase but at a smaller rate than in the past Farm concentration Declining exports due to global competition Rising imports from a tiny base Source: Gira (LTM) 18

19 EU pigmeat conclusions: Growing import share of stable consumption EU pigmeat exports to the world market will decline: especially to the key market of the Far East where EU product is less competitive against competition from north and south America Unlike the other meat sectors, the EU pig industry has yet to be subject to competition from imports from the world market with high European farm productivity and SPS issues being the major defence imports only account for.1% of consumption and this seems likely to continue at least in the medium term the main threat would be from Brazil, but it is currently banned from supplying the EU market on sanitary grounds Access to the EU market is a strategic priority for the Brazilians 5. Production 4o Congreso etc. Nacional de la Carne 9/1/28 19

20 Menu 1. Long Term Global meat demand overview 2. Trends in pigmeat consumption and production 3. World trade and outlook 4. Pigmeat exporters and outlook 5. Pigmeat importers and outlook 2

21 Pigmeat Imports: Mexico will be the fastest growing importer Pigmeat Importers (incl. live) The biggest importers, with a breakdown of their suppliers JP US O Far East (' t cwe) CA EU US (' t cwe) EU CA (' t cwe) China/HK S Korea Mexico Russia USA Japan (' t cwe) RU CN 7 EU BR 3 (' t cwe) MX BR CA US Source: Gira compilations and forecasts 21

22 The share of imports on many of the main markets will continue to at high levels Pigmeat importers Importers % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Imports Production 3% 2% CA US MX EU RU UKR CN JP KR 1% % Each column = 5 years period Source: Gira compilations and forecasts 22